Bitcoin Forum

I may not have looked far enough, but I don't seem to find anything justifying this sudden sharp rise...

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=310059.msg3331043#msg3331043

If we were to go down the SR news would have triggered a sellof/downtrend. Instead, we recovered quickly. This is bullish news.

Ah, that's one reason...  But it still doesn't explain why the sudden price rise.  Why out of a sudden the volume jumps at BTCChina?

They are living their "hype bubble" like we did earlier this year?  :D

Speculation on a US default.

Chinese got carried away on BTC cool-aid ,................... NOT !

Of course we are all just guessing. But I have found that when we have a week of good press, like the past weeks, a rise follows. It seems to lag by two weeks. Perhaps that is the time it takes newbies to read, download, and buy some coins.

As much as the speculators are guessing. Really, even if you're not actively buying, but passively not selling... you're speculating as well.

The weak hands are beginning to be sold out...

The total network hash power just rose like 500T in just a weekend, it is getting difficult to get bitcoin every passing day, many miners will stop mining and start to purchase coins soon, and before they do that, smart money will buy all the coins available on the market

I have another thought on this... and it relates to SR.

True, with the demise of SR there are others that have arisen to take its place.  However, SR's true size has now come to light - almost a million registered users.  That means a lots of people using it, and, while it was operating, a lot of sellers that received bitcoins and needed to dump them for cash in order to buy more supply.  While DPR may have believed in Bitcoin and held onto a lot of them, I doubt a lot of the sellers did.  I suspect many just saw the opportunity and used it as a medium, without holding BTC.  I suspect many regular dumps may have been due to SR sellers unloading at the current price, regardless of what that was (no real regard to trying to optimize profits).

Now, with SR removed, the regular dumps and their effect on the price trend is gone, and the constant, gradual demand for BTC from other areas is starting to show through.  If so, then this trend may continue, at least until the speculators begin profit-taking.

At least, that's my speculation.

(Oh, and of course there is the demand from China too...  :))

what about the demand to buy coins caused by those buying on SR?

14 big reasons:

• China
• Second Market Bitcoin Investment Trust delayed effect (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=301650.msg3246660#msg3246660)
• SR had 100,000 users engaging in active commerce, proving Bitcoin is a very real medium of exchange
• SR shutdown caused only a flash crash, proving the current price level is solid*
• SR shutdown generated a lot of Bitcoin publicity, the trial guarantees more, plus feds have Bitcoin wallet
• DPR's huge cold wallet is reportedly untouchable; off-shore account holders' ears are perking up
• SR shutdown proved SR was not a critical part of the Bitcoin ecosystem, not even for price support (see above)
• SR shutdown cleaned the image of Bitcoin up in many people's minds, even though others like it will sprout
• Global financial market turmoil coming to a head; Jim Rogers: "this Fall is probably the beginning of the end"
• US government shutdown silliness, people are worried and the US is showing serious signs of imminent meltdown
• China-EU agreement to cut out USD in trade, a huge blow to USD reserve currency status - one of many
• Ultra-loose Janet Yellen appointed as next Fed chief, QE to infinity!
• 6 months since last bubble, dust settled, now finally clear to people that it was a legit price correction (upwards)
• Talk of more Cyprus-style "haircuts" on depositors, taking the Keynesian "hoarding=bad!" to its logical endpoint

*Remember March 11? Slow orphan blocks, hard fork, double-spend --> FLASH CRASH --> price ultimately unaffected, proving in people's minds that the growth from January through March 11 wasn't just silly speculation and vapors but real support, so then people threw caution to the wind and piled in without reservation

+1
nice list. overall media attention has grown big time since march/april. fourth biggest economy has approved btc legal status  (germany). network strength skyrocketing.

Because every effect must have a cause visible to you? The market moved because people bought coins....

My thinking is that the buyers are larger in number than sellers, but smaller amounts of buys each, possibly spread across multiple exchanges. Coupled with those who might have the coins from earlier on or from mining, and it doesn't amount to significant impact as its many small purchases at best. Less impact than a larger dump.

Nice, but what about reason #15 - Gox is insolvent ?

Gox pays out just fine in Japan, I can tell you.

Another thing: http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-10-14/chinas-state-press-calls-for-building-a-de-americanized-world (http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-10-14/chinas-state-press-calls-for-building-a-de-americanized-world)

I forgot that everyone lives in Japan again, DOH!

Now that everyone is off drugs they have finally gotten some sense and bought btc. ::)

March 11th orphan blocks were slow 
Doubters panicked and let their Bitcoins go

Hoooooooold...  for the longest time :)

I actually thought that was a much more legitimate reason to be worried for Bitcoin. I haven't been genuinely so worried for Bitcoin since, even when the huge crash happened. If orphan blocks happen, Bitcoin, the actual protocol, is threatened. As long as the Bitcoin protocol is working, it'll eventually have to increase in price, since its finite by design. But that type of shit can actually destroy the protocol, and screw everyone over.

Disclaimer: I did let many of my Bitcoins go then.  :'( If I hadn't done that I'd have about 20% more Bitcoins right now (assuming I didn't lose them in some other stupid manner).

^^ This

I did just this starting a few weeks ago. Shutdown the old FPGAs (which were hardly yielding anything anymore) and activated a small weekly purchase to replace mining.

There were a lot of small scale GPU/FPGA miners who used mining as a way to acquire BTC, but who were not able to get into the ASIC game. Folks in this category can now either just sit on their balance, or switch to purchasing BTC from time to time. I believe many still want to acquire BTC, and now the only way is through purchasing. Also, sites like coinbase make it very easy to actively steady small weekly (or even daily) purchases that can replicate mining in a sense.

If this is the case, that will translate into constant upward support on the price.

Will this be a sustained price rise?

No, it will either be a bubble, a bull trap, a head-and-shoulders, a triangle, a reverse head-and-shoulders, or a reverse-psychology-beartrap.

where are we ?

http://www.twiiga.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/TAC-Chasm.jpg

what are we (like) ?

http://www.phibetaiota.net/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/Silent-Boom.png


no matter which curve you choose, there is plenty of room. get your coins when they are cheap. everything below 1000 $ is cheap  ;)

One more possible reason: China's biggest search engine baidu began to accept BTC:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=310962

goddamn,just when i converted some to fiat to pay bills

*butthurt*

This made me chuckle.

Accepted answer! :)  Indeed, that make sense... ;)

New 28nm asics are increasing total hashing power drastically, which drives the cost of mining up for old miners. New miners are not yet cashing in, old miners are selling at higher prices to pay for electricity. So the bubble will burst when new miners start to sell coins.

maybe other way around: knc has generated most of its possible turnover already, pre-sales of hashfast/cointerra had their peak already. no one sane is ordering 28mm currently. so, slowly the cash redirects towards direct purchase of btc = price goes up. which brings the others back into the game. eh.. what ?

Mmmh, i don't think so. In long term the bitcoineconmy will grow faster then miners are able to produce coins! It's 3600 btc a day! I remember just a couple of month i hardly could find pressreleases about btc.... Today there are loads of em, each day the acceptance all over the World increases! Each day new Start ups where raised! Next year just Big Players are able to mine Btc. Look at the Map btc is like a good virus entring the planet. The experiment seems working! And from Day to Day it will be harder to destroy btc.....believe me, btc=the future. It's a Chance to getting a step further in the evolution. Btc is for all of us....

Cheech300

Yes, but we are talking about just a couple of weeks here. The only significant event related to bitcoin is KnC shipping in last two weeks. It is the simplest solution.

well not exactly. as any asic producer knc milked millions of $ from bitcoin people ready to invest in either miners or... bitcoin itself (!) between june and today. and i guess rather in the beginning of this period then at the end.

Just look at this mining operating margin chart http://blockchain.info/charts/miners-operating-profit-margin (http://blockchain.info/charts/miners-operating-profit-margin) (clearly, the chart is invalid for KnC, but they only have like 20% of the total power, and the chart is probably valid for old miners)

I'd say we're currently in the chasm between visionaries and pragmatists.

If the scale is anything to go on we are at the alfa test and not even the end of it.

The sentiment this year is very different than GPU mining era. The investors in ASIC mining rigs will never ROI at current difficulty rising speed, the only way for them to recoup the loss is to hold all the mined coins hoping for a future appreciation of bitcoin. This dramatically reduced the daily coin supply, and coins that cashed out from previous investors are drying out quickly...

litecoiners seeing little jump in btc price went to trade to btc, while ltc drops lower and lower

I would say at the beginning of early adapters, since the ETF and Baidu are accepting it.

Bots slowly drive up the price. If nobody is buying or selling the .00000001 bids keep going up. So basically it is being manipulated up because most people who use bots are bullish.

cant wait price go sky rocket again

Why? Are you going to sell?

No silly, everyone lives in america, so thats all that matters ~derp

They are still paying out fine in that tiny backwater of Europe too...

Europe is backward! Damn women dont know how to shave yet.

Your attempts at sarcasm are doubly funny, because in Bitcoin, USD has a massive percent of volume.

Can you logic me another confusion by your separation of the ideas?

Thats how my brain felt when I read your post.

You have identified trade volume on gox/bitstamp/etc etc denominated in USD is higher than the trade volume in other currencies.

You are attempting to assert something from this. *My* magic 8-ball says "Concentrate and ask again"

Tell me exactly what it is you think it means? From where I am sat, in the context of the thread, the implication is that you think because the trade(s) are in USD then it must be US citizens on both sides.

It's actually pretty amusing for this european (that has struggled on many an occasion, to deal with the fact that all the exchanges insisted on you depositing USD, which meant - for your average european - jumping through hoops, transferring through various dodgy outfits, being gouged for commission, and fees each step of the way just to be able to get dollars onto gox and buy some coins) to see the tables turned.

Having pointed out how dimwitted it would be to assume that a USD trade means no aliens were involved, you have no choice but to try and pretend you thought something else (or just accept you did a booboo), so you'll come up with some flimsy bullshit about how you meant something else, but alas I already called you on that. So really your best course of action then will be to pretend you never noticed this reply, and ignore that too. Oh but now you can't really do that either as it would also prove me right. That only leaves going full retard. Which I expect in 3... 2... 1...

https://i.imgur.com/7LddF8h.png

YW :)

But you're going to tell me people are going to incur tons of risk, fees, and delays, just so they can use a USD designated exchange? Riiiiiight.

BTW, here's another treat for you, you poor angry soul...

https://i.imgur.com/bi5TdSQ.png

You're missing a couple of points: Bitstamp is probably the top address to buy/sell BTC in Europe thanks to fast bank transfers and reasonably good handling. Guess what? Every EUR transfer you make to your Bitstamp account gets directly converted to USD when credited (without fees and at a good rate) and you can only trade in  USD there. No way to disentagle the different currencies there.

And if you want to do short/mid term trading, you practically always will trade BTC/USD because the market depth and action is higher and there are more services available. I for one use Bitfinex, which is only offered in USD.

And for the Google Trends: ever thought about that people will only search "buy bitcoin" if English is their native language? Just try "bitcoin" only and the "world" looks quite different:

https://i.imgur.com/COVDKk7.png

No doubt the US are a strong player in the world of bitcoin, but they aren't as singular as your screenshot would make us believe.

An interesting rebuttal, thanks for posting :) I was just happy knowing that, as a european, I am pretty much forced to trade in USD (so yes derp, I do "incur tons of risk and fees" just to use a USD exchange - what choice do I have?) I only ever sell in EUR when I want to take some fiat back out via SEPA.

Listen, and understand. That derpinator is out there. It can't be bargained with. It can't be reasoned with. It doesn't feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And it absolutely will not stop, ever, until you are dead tired of it's USA über alles logic.

As I recall, gox pretty much ditched customers in the USA when all the USD issues kicked off. So gox paying out in japan (and europe) is pretty relevant. If one is american, and one still has USD in gox then I suggest one moves with the times.

The premise of this whole line of inquiry was that gox is insolvent. Your point implied that the lack of USD withdrawal was proof of this (or at least indicative that this may be the case). Whereas zanglebert pointed out they were still paying out in japan. I (admittedly somewhat flippantly) pointed out that was the case in europe too.

Both these facts are more indicative that the lack of USD payout is less to do with solvency and more to do with regulatory issues in the relevant country.

You can continue to argue about the size of USD trade in bitcoin. It doesn't change the fact that gox seems to be doing a roaring trade everywhere else.

Who's buying Bitcoins?  People in China? People stuck on Mt. Gox unable to withdraw? It makes a big difference.

I am curious how much of the market is still being driven by the latter. My feeling is -- less and less. You can see BTCChina volume here: http://bitcoinity.org/markets/btcchina/CNY However, that does not give the whole picture for Chinese exchange.

Interesting the volume for USD/EUR/GBP following the silk road bust, vs the volume for CNY.

Especially compared to the relative CNY volume recently (baidu hype?)

I dunno what it all means, but its fun!

 ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

dont know how many times i thought exactly the same!

I've withdrawn one day before the rise, not my type of fun

sold ? noooooo.....  HOLD

as long as there are holders of bitcoin the pyramid will not collapse.

So, did you just sign up to pop into different threads and say that?

yes. dont you recognize trolling?

http://www.icij.org/blog/2013/09/west-africa-tibet-new-locales-enter-offshore-secrecy-market (http://www.icij.org/blog/2013/09/west-africa-tibet-new-locales-enter-offshore-secrecy-market)

Aw man, I thought we were rid of all the doom-n-gloom naysayers at this point.  Guess $190 isn't enough to expel them!

oh I see, you want to really enjoy your delusions of grandeur and think you all are the next warren buffets of the world. get real. unless you were in in the beginning and have held you are chasing a pipe dream. if someone is a millionaire and there is $50k in the pot, joe average investor, gambler(plug in what you want) does not have a chance. the millionaire will win everytime. so why do you all think that you have something so special here that the people with the big money would want to let bottom feeders in their eyes have a single cent? the people with all the money will win period. and they will take every last penny from the have nots.

You are talking about stock market or what?

look at the stock market. go and try to make some serious money by trading against the traders. you will lose most of the time. they have the faster machines, better information, more money etc. same thing will happen with bitcoins. people are working day and night to find a way to steal your money. its just a matter of time.

Have you read a single sentence about Bitcoin? I recommend you do and try to comprehend what you read. You'll find your answer there :)

You sound angry.

there is nothing to read my friend. it is human nature to try to fuck someone over before you get fucked over. add money into the equation and it gets even more draconian. where there is money to be made. whether it be the stock market, betting on horses or football games etc dont assume the playing field is level.

I am not angry at all. the hype sickens me. this isnt investing. this is flat out gambling.

I'm sure your understanding of human nature is correct in your neighbourhood but what has that to do with increased demand for Bitcoin in China?

Oh I see, just butthurt about something.  :D

Increase in demand doesnt mean that the price will increase. Nobody knows what is going on behind the scenes. There is no rules or regulations. So what is good or bad? right or wrong? The owner of Mt Gox one day may say F*ck all this and close his doors. What could anyone do?

Bitcoin tax ruling determining it is not subject to VAT
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=315777.msg3382654#msg3382654

Yes, fleabag clearly needs a hug.

Use another exchange. MtGox isn't important anymore anyway.

Yes, let's all hug fleabag. GROUP HUG EVERYONE.
(Hope he's been deloused.)

So day-trading on the stock market now equates to theft?   ???

Why does the hype sicken you, and why do you care?  Why do you care if people are "gambling" (in your opinion) with their money?

yes day trading is theft. have you ever seen a stock pounded right into nothing from people shorting it? day traders will suck the life out of any stock. whereas the people who have put sweat equity into their live saving and pensions or 401ks get nothing. is that fair?
high frequency trading is just as bad. flat out theft. the average investor has absolutley no chance against it.

the hype of this(bitcoin) reminds me of the dot com bubble. and it does make me sick. because im tired of all the rich fucks taking advantage of your ordinary hard working people.

What is the fundamental difference between day trading and other forms of investing in which the investor intends only to make a profit from other people, other than the time frame? That one is more successful? That doesn't seem like a significant  ethical difference to me.

Not only is shorting harder to pull off in most markets, without shorting bubbles would happen a lot more often.  Would that really be good for the company?

Quite frankly - and this is going to sound harsh - the person you should be angry at is the person who taught you that "hard work" is what would help you get ahead and have what you want in life. Its take ALOT more than hard work. It takes working smart, investing smart, and being a part of adding a value to society that is really valuable - not that can be easily replaced. For instance, if you are a coal miner, you can be replaced by 100 other coal miners. You provide no real tangible value.

In fact, many people don't work hard, because they understand money, how to make it, invest it and utilize it.

You picked "hard work" as your mantra, obviously it hasn't given you want you wanted and now your bitter. You should look for answers inside yourself, not by chastising people excited about bitcoin.

What has this got to do with Bitcoin?

To be fair, the ascent of Bitcoin into the mainstream will make a lot of people unnaturally wealthy and ruffle a lot of feathers in the process. Even though those people all took risks on something that was likely to go to zero, people will still be upset since they didn't work hard, etc. It's true, it's unnatural, inhuman in a way to get so wealthy just for identifying a trend that others couldn't see. But the same can be said of early facebook investors, Apple investors, Microsoft investors, etc. People had no idea they'd be big. If everyone knew, they would have been valued highly from the beginning. And Bitcoiners could still lose their entire investment, so are risking a lot. Or if they are risking only a small amount like $50, they won't become wealthy even if we see million-dollar bitcoins, though they could probably buy a nice house if they never sold any along the way (which is extra risky).

this is a topic a thought about myself lately. is it "hard/well deserved" for bitcoiners to get filthy rich? or were they just lucky bastards. i can tell you, this summer wasn´t easy. after i went somewhat "all-in" end of may i sometimes felt like being the idiot (that i actually am...) who invested way to early into a technology that is doomed/will fail/get´s outlawed/etc ...

+1 you are not allone!

I am not bitter at all. If I wanted to get into bitcoin I could. All I am saying is that if you are buying bitcoins NOW you missed the boat. The people that got into bitcoins from the very beginning are the only ones who are going to make the real money. THEY are the ones who took the chance or stumbled upon the idea and went for it. I guess the best analogy is that they have nothing to lose unless it goes to zero. People getting in now have too much to lose. Anyone plan on getting rich nowadays in Apple stock? Not going to happen because that boat for your average ordinary investor is long gone.

You were being extremely bitter. And you might be right. Maybe BTC is at or near its future all time highs. Or maybe its only a fraction of its all time highs. Using Apple as an analogy is weak sauce. Apple is the biggest company in the world (capitalization).  Buying apple stock even 12 years ago could have made you wealthy. And that was after the FIRST Apple (Steve Jobs) boom.

STOP! Tell me of  an investment, other than a stock, that you can prove that a person(s) became filthy rich after the idea had already been fully disseminated in the world. In other words show me where someone put their money and became a millionaire and they were not involved from the very beginning.

You're a prick. You mentioned Apple and were ironically giving the perfect example of how people created wealth after an initial boom.  Then you say Stop!  Lol. No stocks. Lol!

The answer to your latest question: the Internet.

Good reply. Though I'm guessing fleabag will find fault with it.

The day traders just taking profits from people who dont care.
There are two shops near each other, one is selling some item with 20% higher price than the other, is it theft as well when people buy the item at 20% higher price because they are lazy or dont care ?

If I was a dictator supreme ruler of my country there would not be two shops nearby selling same stuff with different margin.

Off topic, yes.

ignore me

Halide Chemical Corp  made photo paper film etc Kodak was eating their lunch. they researched open info and found dry lithography. eventually renamed themselves Xerox.

NO STOCKS COCKSUCKER!

THE INTERNET? GREAT ANSWER DICKHEAD! AND HOW MUCH DID IT COST? FUCKING LOSER

"Groups are out. Four-piece groups with guitars particularly are finished."
— Dick Rowe, Decca Recording Company executive, 1962 (turning down The Beatles)

Lol.

Awesome.

What do you do for a living fleabag?

Seriously, it must suck. You are one broke and angry dude.

Meanwhile, I think I'll wire another $50k to Bitstamp, in case there is a pullback.

lol'd

I think flea is a govt hired forum board troll.