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Title: Long-term Log Chart: $500 by Late Winter Post by: Zangelbert Bingledack on October 16, 2013, 09:44:33 AM https://i.imgur.com/2mYF1sZ.jpg
Of course, with overexuberance we may spike into quadruple digits for a brief time. NOTE: At this exponential growth rate it takes 3.5 months to double and a little less than a year to increase tenfold. That suggests ballpark figures of $5000 by early 2015 and $50,000 by about the end of 2015, with the market cap reaching $1 trillion around Spring 2016. That's trillion with a "T" - full mainstream adoption in 2.5 years. If this multi-year trend holds, Title: Re: Long-term Log Chart: $500 by Late Winter Post by: MoreFun on October 16, 2013, 09:54:09 AM This line is so random. :o
Title: Re: Long-term Log Chart: $500 by Late Winter Post by: Zangelbert Bingledack on October 16, 2013, 10:03:55 AM This line is so random. :o It's simply meant to approximate the average trend. I left out early price movements because they looked artificial. If I had included them the price targets would be quite a bit higher/sooner. I also arbitrarily discounted the 2011 bubble; had I left it in the price targets would be higher/sooner. Title: Re: Long-term Log Chart: $500 by Late Winter Post by: pand70 on October 16, 2013, 10:11:02 AM So you took a logarithmic chart and drew a line with windows paint? Cool...
Title: Re: Long-term Log Chart: $500 by Late Winter Post by: Zangelbert Bingledack on October 16, 2013, 10:13:17 AM Exactly. It's a simple exponential trend, but easy to miss for the short-term turbulence.
Title: Re: Long-term Log Chart: $500 by Late Winter Post by: cypherdoc on October 16, 2013, 10:15:42 AM What we're witnessing here with Bitcoin is truly an amazing phenomenon which the vast majority miss or refuse to believe.
A deep understanding of what money is has always been the most essential thing. Thank you Austrians. Title: Re: Long-term Log Chart: $500 by Late Winter Post by: Puppet on October 16, 2013, 10:17:35 AM https://i.imgur.com/2mYF1sZ.jpg Of course, with overexuberance we may spike into quadruple digits for a brief time. NOTE: At this exponential growth rate it takes a little less than a year to increase tenfold. That suggests ballpark figures of $5000 by early 2015 and $50,000 by about the end of 2015, with the market cap reaching $1 trillion around Spring 2016. That's trillion with a "T" - full mainstream adoption in 2.5 years. If this multi-year trend holds, So in less than 10 year a bitcoin will be worth $1,500,000,000,000 and the entire blockchain $20,000,000,000,000,000,000 Thats 20 quintillion. Next. Title: Re: Long-term Log Chart: $500 by Late Winter Post by: Zangelbert Bingledack on October 16, 2013, 10:18:39 AM cypherdoc,
Even many Austrians are missing it: http://libertyhq.freeforums.org/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1335 Title: Re: Long-term Log Chart: $500 by Late Winter Post by: Zangelbert Bingledack on October 16, 2013, 10:23:37 AM So in less than 10 year a bitcoin will be worth $1,500,000,000,000 and the entire blockchain $20,000,000,000,000,000,000 Thats 20 quintillion. Adoption is S-shaped: https://i.imgur.com/nE3AwPM.jpg That means exponential growth followed by exponential decay in growth. Unless you have a reason why Bitcoin would stop midway through to mainstream adoption, I see no reason for the tapering to begin before mainstream adoption is reached, though of course after that growth must slow. Title: Re: Long-term Log Chart: $500 by Late Winter Post by: cypherdoc on October 16, 2013, 10:41:03 AM https://i.imgur.com/2mYF1sZ.jpg Of course, with overexuberance we may spike into quadruple digits for a brief time. NOTE: At this exponential growth rate it takes a little less than a year to increase tenfold. That suggests ballpark figures of $5000 by early 2015 and $50,000 by about the end of 2015, with the market cap reaching $1 trillion around Spring 2016. That's trillion with a "T" - full mainstream adoption in 2.5 years. If this multi-year trend holds, So in less than 10 year a bitcoin will be worth $1,500,000,000,000 and the entire blockchain $20,000,000,000,000,000,000 Thats 20 quintillion. Next. Puppet, ZB is simply applying the same exponential growth functions to the price that you keep insisting apply to the difficulty in the Hardware forum. Title: Re: Long-term Log Chart: $500 by Late Winter Post by: viboracecata on October 16, 2013, 10:42:03 AM Recent boost can not last that long.
Title: Re: Long-term Log Chart: $500 by Late Winter Post by: cypherdoc on October 16, 2013, 10:43:08 AM cypherdoc, Even many Austrians are missing it: http://libertyhq.freeforums.org/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1335 I'm well aware of them. Their bodies are strewn all over my gold thread :) Title: Re: Long-term Log Chart: $500 by Late Winter Post by: Zangelbert Bingledack on October 16, 2013, 10:55:01 AM There are Austrians who can't think for themselves and those that can. Nice how the ones who can get to make the dough.
-- For a slightly more conservative estimate (14 months for every order of magnitude instead of about 11.5 months in my version), see this projected chart from adamas's post (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=310911.msg3347929#msg3347929). "$200 by Christmas, $500 by late Spring, $1000 by Fall." (A little over 4 months to double.) http://www.anonmgur.com/up/0c61ad92235614f9027dda503249d10b.jpg Title: Re: Long-term Log Chart: $500 by Late Winter Post by: TERA on October 16, 2013, 03:33:07 PM I posted about this chart before. The trend line can just be conveniently drawn wherever you want and the current date would be supported at anywhere from 30 to 150.
Title: Re: Long-term Log Chart: $500 by Late Winter Post by: Zangelbert Bingledack on October 16, 2013, 06:51:14 PM The trend line can just be conveniently drawn wherever you want Not really. It's not an analyst's trendline, it's an approximation similar to a moving average. I could have just as easily posted the following chart, showing moving averages. Just straighten out those lines and move them up a bit to compensate for them being moving averages, and you have something like what the line in the OP is supposed to be. https://i.imgur.com/TYtYHD8.png Or more simply, the area under the line should be roughly equal to the area below the line (in my case I discounted the 2011 bubble slightly and started when the price looked more realistic, which is the only arbitrary aspect to my line; had I not done that, the target prices would be higher). You can't draw a line like that however you want. Title: Re: Long-term Log Chart: $500 by Late Winter Post by: thezerg on October 16, 2013, 07:47:00 PM Math identifies numerical trends but not the "why". let's put a story behind these numbers:
Once China BTC early adopter acceptance is saturated, it will be MUCH easier to convince a supplier to accept the currency. This will allow the use of bitcoin for small volume wholesale purchasing. The repetitive nature of these relationships makes the front-end effort of setting up a bitcoin payment channel (ie. EUR -> exchange -> BTC -> payment -> BTC -> other exchange -> CNY) worthwhile. This is the first killer app for bitcoin -- B2B sourcing for small to medium sized companies. These Chinese companies do not take Paypal (I'm not sure why), instead requesting something like Western Union. For example, I was recently involved in prototyping and sourcing 1000-10000 units of a custom remote control, and other electronics. We are talking prototype payments of 100 - 500 euro and wholesale order of 1000 - 30000 euro. Payment was an incredible PITA, especially for the prototype. A 100 euro payment took 400 euro in time (it took more time to set up the payment then the entire rest of the prototype vendor selection process) This adoption process is slow and mostly invisible to the consumer (you), and will even be considered by some companies to be a confidential competitive advantage. So expect news about this to be under-reported. This is 2014. In 2015, adoption by Chinese suppliers will back-drive BTC adoption within non-early adopter small businesses in the rest of the world, especially for low margin products. This should be aided by another year for the rest of the world to streamline the fiat to BTC conversion process within this legal environment. This adoption will primarily be driven by the desire to reduce costs and will drive BTC into businesses outside of technology circles. Simultaneously with world-to-China B2B commerce India will begin its early adopter acquisition bubble (spring 2014). Mid to late 2014 will see the beginnings of world->India payments for B2B IT and consulting services, with real volumes happening late 2015 to 2016. Broad B2B international commerce adoption will set the stage for these same companies to offer Bitcoin as a payment option to their direct sales (ebay etc) outlets, but I expect non-technical consumers will not move to the currency unless driven to it by political issues resulting in fiat instability. However, a consumer "killer-app" (ad-less browsing or something) might drive end user adoption earlier. At the same time 2014-2016, remittance will continue to grow slowly but will be hampered by lack of smart phone and fiat->BTC exchanges in the destination countries. Adoption will be highest in countries with good tech infrastructure, an unstable fiat currency, and remittance. Argentina looks to be the best bet, India looks quite good. Title: Re: Long-term Log Chart: $500 by Late Winter Post by: Chalkbot on October 16, 2013, 07:50:12 PM Puppet, ZB is simply applying the same exponential growth functions to the price that you keep insisting apply to the difficulty in the Hardware forum. Haha. Snap. Title: Re: Long-term Log Chart: $500 by Late Winter Post by: theonewhowaskazu on October 16, 2013, 10:44:41 PM I tend to believe in this trendline:
http://blockchained.com/chart_large_log.png So by next September we should be at about $1000. Anything within that period is subject to at least a couple of months lag. Title: Re: Long-term Log Chart: $500 by Late Winter Post by: fleabag on October 16, 2013, 11:29:53 PM Wait til China and India and all the backward countries adopt it then it will really go up! HEck they dont even know bitcoin exists. Wait! I almost forgot all the people in Mexico and all the people in the slums of Rio. Wait til they buy bitcoins and hold them while their families starve to death or they are put out into the streets. But they will still be true to good ole bitcoin. BRAINWASHED LEMMINGS!! ALL OF YOU!
Title: Re: Long-term Log Chart: $500 by Late Winter Post by: goxed on October 16, 2013, 11:34:53 PM I tend to believe in this trendline: http://blockchained.com/chart_large_log.png So by next September we should be at about $1000. Anything within that period is subject to at least a couple of months lag. Price hasn't caught up with difficult increase since June. Miners are now subsidizing bitcoin generation, while ASIC manufacturers and traders are profiting. Miners cannot be like the gubbermint for long. Title: Re: Long-term Log Chart: $500 by Late Winter Post by: ferda2mx on October 16, 2013, 11:47:16 PM So you took a logarithmic chart and drew a line with windows paint? Cool... Power in simply solutions But if exponential growth could last forever, it would work. Remind me how one fly could populate in just few years to a population weighting one Earth mass in ideal conditions Title: Re: Long-term Log Chart: $500 by Late Winter Post by: thezerg on October 17, 2013, 01:15:27 AM Wait til China and India and all the backward countries adopt it then it will really go up! HEck they dont even know bitcoin exists. Wait! I almost forgot all the people in Mexico and all the people in the slums of Rio. Wait til they buy bitcoins and hold them while their families starve to death or they are put out into the streets. But they will still be true to good ole bitcoin. BRAINWASHED LEMMINGS!! ALL OF YOU! You are ignorant if you think the BRICs are economically backwards. There is a lot of concentrated wealth and also a lot of concentrated poverty in these nations. But just for clarity I did start to wince when the OP suggested the exponential was going to continue to 1 trillion. My gut tells me the S will inflect FAR before that point. Regardless, thx for reading my post! Title: Re: Long-term Log Chart: $500 by Late Winter Post by: justusranvier on October 17, 2013, 01:38:43 AM I track the trend differently - I keep a spreadsheet wherein I track the weekly weighted prices and calculate an average of all the changes.
So far that gives an average weekly change of 6.4%, including the data from all the way back to the first day Mt Gox opened. Using that gives about $300 by the end of the year, with $1000 being reached slightly under a year from now. Title: Re: Long-term Log Chart: $500 by Late Winter Post by: Zangelbert Bingledack on October 17, 2013, 06:00:56 PM This adoption process is slow and mostly invisible to the consumer (you), and will even be considered by some companies to be a confidential competitive advantage. So expect news about this to be under-reported. This is 2014. Interesting. You should mention this on /r/Bitcoin (http://reddit.com/r/Bitcoin), because I don't think people really get this. They tend to think retail adoption is the main thing to watch. I myself think people are buying primarily for store-of-value based on future promise (and wealthy getting a few percent of their wealth hide-able and unconfiscatable), perhaps followed by B2B soon, then retail - same story as yours but with store-of-value/investment being the primary driver. Title: Re: Long-term Log Chart: $500 by Late Winter Post by: smoothie on October 18, 2013, 05:49:32 AM We live in very interesting times.
The cool factor is that in the bitcoin world a year feels like 30 years when compared to financial markets. Title: Re: Long-term Log Chart: $500 by Late Winter Post by: BitChick on October 18, 2013, 06:34:54 AM I track the trend differently - I keep a spreadsheet wherein I track the weekly weighted prices and calculate an average of all the changes. So far that gives an average weekly change of 6.4%, including the data from all the way back to the first day Mt Gox opened. Using that gives about $300 by the end of the year, with $1000 being reached slightly under a year from now. This sounds about right. Many people would say that is crazy and too optimistic but tell that to the people who bought at $15 a year ago! It could be a conservative estimate for all we know. I think there will be some ups and downs along the way of course. Title: Re: Long-term Log Chart: $500 by Late Winter Post by: sgbett on October 18, 2013, 04:08:26 PM This is my arbitrary line. Its more of a fairly conservative baseline support level. I expect there will continue to be bumps along the way, but I dont think the price will ever dip much below this line failing a black swan event.
$1000 BTC July '15 seems reasonable. https://i.imgur.com/HTAjb8M.png Title: Re: Long-term Log Chart: $500 by Late Winter Post by: impulse on October 18, 2013, 04:38:32 PM I track the trend differently - I keep a spreadsheet wherein I track the weekly weighted prices and calculate an average of all the changes. So far that gives an average weekly change of 6.4%, including the data from all the way back to the first day Mt Gox opened. Using that gives about $300 by the end of the year, with $1000 being reached slightly under a year from now. I have been tracking things in a similar way and have projected very similar numbers, but things could move much faster. It's possible that in addition to increasing adoption, the rate of adoption will also increase, add to that the fact that the supply inflation is dramatically lower now than any time before about a year ago (when the block reward halved) and I think there is a real possibility that the price could melt-up in a dramatic price explosion, not unlike what we saw earlier this year. Title: Re: Long-term Log Chart: $500 by Late Winter Post by: 600watt on October 18, 2013, 04:41:28 PM $1000 BTC July '15 seems reasonable. Yeah, that would be a lower est for me. Seems pretty solid. july 2015 ? good to know, because: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=285771.msg3055867#msg3055867 Title: Re: Long-term Log Chart: $500 by Late Winter Post by: cypherdoc on October 18, 2013, 04:43:55 PM I track the trend differently - I keep a spreadsheet wherein I track the weekly weighted prices and calculate an average of all the changes. So far that gives an average weekly change of 6.4%, including the data from all the way back to the first day Mt Gox opened. Using that gives about $300 by the end of the year, with $1000 being reached slightly under a year from now. I have been tracking things in a similar way and have projected very similar numbers, but things could move much faster. It's possible that in addition to increasing adoption, the rate of adoption will also increase, add to that the fact that the supply inflation is dramatically lower now than any time before about a year ago (when the block reward halved) and I think there is a real possibility that the price could melt-up in a dramatic price explosion, not unlike what we saw earlier this year. this must be why your name is impulse. Title: Re: Long-term Log Chart: $500 by Late Winter Post by: adamstgBit on October 18, 2013, 04:47:54 PM I track the trend differently - I keep a spreadsheet wherein I track the weekly weighted prices and calculate an average of all the changes. So far that gives an average weekly change of 6.4%, including the data from all the way back to the first day Mt Gox opened. Using that gives about $300 by the end of the year, with $1000 being reached slightly under a year from now. I have been tracking things in a similar way and have projected very similar numbers, but things could move much faster. It's possible that in addition to increasing adoption, the rate of adoption will also increase, add to that the fact that the supply inflation is dramatically lower now than any time before about a year ago (when the block reward halved) and I think there is a real possibility that the price could melt-up in a dramatic price explosion, not unlike what we saw earlier this year. this must be why your name is impulse. i'm turning bear as fast as the price is rising.... Title: Re: Long-term Log Chart: $500 by Late Winter Post by: cypherdoc on October 18, 2013, 05:05:47 PM I track the trend differently - I keep a spreadsheet wherein I track the weekly weighted prices and calculate an average of all the changes. So far that gives an average weekly change of 6.4%, including the data from all the way back to the first day Mt Gox opened. Using that gives about $300 by the end of the year, with $1000 being reached slightly under a year from now. I have been tracking things in a similar way and have projected very similar numbers, but things could move much faster. It's possible that in addition to increasing adoption, the rate of adoption will also increase, add to that the fact that the supply inflation is dramatically lower now than any time before about a year ago (when the block reward halved) and I think there is a real possibility that the price could melt-up in a dramatic price explosion, not unlike what we saw earlier this year. this must be why your name is impulse. i'm turning bear as fast as the price is rising.... not again?! Adam! Title: Re: Long-term Log Chart: $500 by Late Winter Post by: impulse on October 18, 2013, 06:07:59 PM i'm turning bear as fast as the price is rising.... not again?! Adam! Isn't this one of the reasons we love Adam so much? The quick rises also give me some anxiety, but I also don't want to be caught in a short position should the price explode. There was plenty of that going on early this year. Title: Re: Long-term Log Chart: $500 by Late Winter Post by: adamstgBit on October 18, 2013, 06:10:35 PM I track the trend differently - I keep a spreadsheet wherein I track the weekly weighted prices and calculate an average of all the changes. So far that gives an average weekly change of 6.4%, including the data from all the way back to the first day Mt Gox opened. Using that gives about $300 by the end of the year, with $1000 being reached slightly under a year from now. I have been tracking things in a similar way and have projected very similar numbers, but things could move much faster. It's possible that in addition to increasing adoption, the rate of adoption will also increase, add to that the fact that the supply inflation is dramatically lower now than any time before about a year ago (when the block reward halved) and I think there is a real possibility that the price could melt-up in a dramatic price explosion, not unlike what we saw earlier this year. this must be why your name is impulse. i'm turning bear as fast as the price is rising.... not again?! Adam! this time, i'm buying FTC 8) Title: Re: Long-term Log Chart: $500 by Late Winter Post by: jubalix on October 19, 2013, 01:52:10 AM There are Austrians who can't think for themselves and those that can. Nice how the ones who can get to make the dough. -- For a slightly more conservative estimate (14 months for every order of magnitude instead of about 11.5 months in my version), see this projected chart from adamas's post (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=310911.msg3347929#msg3347929). "$200 by Christmas, $500 by late Spring, $1000 by Fall." (A little over 4 months to double.) http://www.anonmgur.com/up/0c61ad92235614f9027dda503249d10b.jpg my version is 13 months to do an order of magnitude (x 10) so very close to yours, but note upper and lower bounds, for quicker 10x http://i41.tinypic.com/2zsr3va.png Title: Re: Long-term Log Chart: $500 by Late Winter Post by: prophetx on October 19, 2013, 02:01:00 AM Wait til China and India and all the backward countries adopt it then it will really go up! HEck they dont even know bitcoin exists. Wait! I almost forgot all the people in Mexico and all the people in the slums of Rio. Wait til they buy bitcoins and hold them while their families starve to death or they are put out into the streets. But they will still be true to good ole bitcoin. BRAINWASHED LEMMINGS!! ALL OF YOU! You are ignorant if you think the BRICs are economically backwards. There is a lot of concentrated wealth and also a lot of concentrated poverty in these nations. But just for clarity I did start to wince when the OP suggested the exponential was going to continue to 1 trillion. My gut tells me the S will inflect FAR before that point. Regardless, thx for reading my post! i think you mean widespread poverty... anyway the OP clearly has not heard of Mpesa... Title: Re: Long-term Log Chart: $500 by Late Winter Post by: prophetx on October 19, 2013, 02:05:39 AM https://i.imgur.com/2mYF1sZ.jpg Of course, with overexuberance we may spike into quadruple digits for a brief time. NOTE: At this exponential growth rate it takes a little less than a year to increase tenfold. That suggests ballpark figures of $5000 by early 2015 and $50,000 by about the end of 2015, with the market cap reaching $1 trillion around Spring 2016. That's trillion with a "T" - full mainstream adoption in 2.5 years. If this multi-year trend holds, So in less than 10 year a bitcoin will be worth $1,500,000,000,000 and the entire blockchain $20,000,000,000,000,000,000 Thats 20 quintillion. Next. Puppet, ZB is simply applying the same exponential growth functions to the price that you keep insisting apply to the difficulty in the Hardware forum. as soon as we start minting those 1 trillion dollar platinum coins this becomes totally possible Title: Re: Long-term Log Chart: $500 by Late Winter Post by: adamstgBit on October 19, 2013, 02:08:47 AM I track the trend differently - I keep a spreadsheet wherein I track the weekly weighted prices and calculate an average of all the changes. So far that gives an average weekly change of 6.4%, including the data from all the way back to the first day Mt Gox opened. Using that gives about $300 by the end of the year, with $1000 being reached slightly under a year from now. I have been tracking things in a similar way and have projected very similar numbers, but things could move much faster. It's possible that in addition to increasing adoption, the rate of adoption will also increase, add to that the fact that the supply inflation is dramatically lower now than any time before about a year ago (when the block reward halved) and I think there is a real possibility that the price could melt-up in a dramatic price explosion, not unlike what we saw earlier this year. this must be why your name is impulse. i'm turning bear as fast as the price is rising.... not again?! Adam! this time, i'm buying FTC 8) Xpm or ltc will be around in two years. Will ftc? yes i think so, the guys behind it are really pushing it hard, i think. FTC is a geek! BUY BUY BUY! why would LTC or PMS be a safer choice? Title: Re: Long-term Log Chart: $500 by Late Winter Post by: wobber on October 19, 2013, 02:16:01 AM My humble rodents, I command you to take that wall down!
Title: Re: Long-term Log Chart: $500 by Late Winter Post by: wobber on October 19, 2013, 02:23:49 AM Thank you! Going to sleep, and want to see 200 in the morning.
Your master. Title: Re: Long-term Log Chart: $500 by Late Winter Post by: jubalix on October 19, 2013, 08:01:36 AM ppc will be around, its made to be around.....longer than BTC
Title: Re: Long-term Log Chart: $500 by Late Winter Post by: jubalix on October 21, 2013, 08:15:29 AM ppc will be around, its made to be around.....longer than BTC Do what now? does not rely that much on mining for security long term and other features. Title: Re: Long-term Log Chart: $500 by Late Winter Post by: smoothie on October 21, 2013, 12:05:18 PM I suspect we will hit $500 by early to mid winter.
I think we will hit a medium term spike in November or Early December 2013. Title: Re: Long-term Log Chart: $500 by Late Winter Post by: jeezy on October 21, 2013, 12:15:44 PM Christmas economy spike totally plausible.
Title: Re: Long-term Log Chart: $500 by Late Winter Post by: afbitcoins on October 21, 2013, 12:27:57 PM This is my arbitrary line. Its more of a fairly conservative baseline support level. I expect there will continue to be bumps along the way, but I dont think the price will ever dip much below this line failing a black swan event. $1000 BTC July '15 seems reasonable. https://i.imgur.com/HTAjb8M.png +1 This is the arbitrary line I like to use when looking at long term trends too. ~sometimes I draw it with windows paint ;) I agree with the long term trend (as highlighted in this thread), bitcoins has a long way to go yet with lots of euphoric peaks and panic crashes along the way, but I don't see why this trend won't hold for quite some time yet. Bitcoins have such scarcity that the price has to go up as more people get involved. Title: Re: Long-term Log Chart: $500 by Late Winter Post by: gabrielmiron on October 23, 2013, 02:50:03 PM Math identifies numerical trends but not the "why". let's put a story behind these numbers: Once China BTC early adopter acceptance is saturated, it will be MUCH easier to convince a supplier to accept the currency. This will allow the use of bitcoin for small volume wholesale purchasing. The repetitive nature of these relationships makes the front-end effort of setting up a bitcoin payment channel (ie. EUR -> exchange -> BTC -> payment -> BTC -> other exchange -> CNY) worthwhile. This is the first killer app for bitcoin -- B2B sourcing for small to medium sized companies. These Chinese companies do not take Paypal (I'm not sure why), instead requesting something like Western Union. For example, I was recently involved in prototyping and sourcing 1000-10000 units of a custom remote control, and other electronics. We are talking prototype payments of 100 - 500 euro and wholesale order of 1000 - 30000 euro. Payment was an incredible PITA, especially for the prototype. A 100 euro payment took 400 euro in time (it took more time to set up the payment then the entire rest of the prototype vendor selection process) This adoption process is slow and mostly invisible to the consumer (you), and will even be considered by some companies to be a confidential competitive advantage. So expect news about this to be under-reported. This is 2014. In 2015, adoption by Chinese suppliers will back-drive BTC adoption within non-early adopter small businesses in the rest of the world, especially for low margin products. This should be aided by another year for the rest of the world to streamline the fiat to BTC conversion process within this legal environment. This adoption will primarily be driven by the desire to reduce costs and will drive BTC into businesses outside of technology circles. Simultaneously with world-to-China B2B commerce India will begin its early adopter acquisition bubble (spring 2014). Mid to late 2014 will see the beginnings of world->India payments for B2B IT and consulting services, with real volumes happening late 2015 to 2016. Broad B2B international commerce adoption will set the stage for these same companies to offer Bitcoin as a payment option to their direct sales (ebay etc) outlets, but I expect non-technical consumers will not move to the currency unless driven to it by political issues resulting in fiat instability. However, a consumer "killer-app" (ad-less browsing or something) might drive end user adoption earlier. At the same time 2014-2016, remittance will continue to grow slowly but will be hampered by lack of smart phone and fiat->BTC exchanges in the destination countries. Adoption will be highest in countries with good tech infrastructure, an unstable fiat currency, and remittance. Argentina looks to be the best bet, India looks quite good. I found this comment really interesting. We are setting up an exchange for the Mexican market that will launch in mid December. At the moment we are handling small accounts that pay their providers in Japan and Spain an average of USD 1,500 - 2,500 each 15 to 30 days. We are selling them BTC for MXN and taking care that the provider gets his EUR or JPY in their bank account with a local contact in the country. Our clients save aprox USD 50 - 60 and 2/3 days. We see it as a sustainable business, and working hard in our reputation as it is the key to the customers trust. Title: Re: Long-term Log Chart: $500 by Late Winter Post by: Zangelbert Bingledack on October 23, 2013, 05:00:21 PM That's awesome, Gabriel. Have you posted about that on the Bitcoin subreddit (http://reddit.com/r/Bitcoin) yet? Thezerg's comments on industrial adoption should also generate a lot of interest.
Title: Re: Long-term Log Chart: $500 by Late Winter Post by: rpietila on October 23, 2013, 05:32:11 PM This might be of interest here.
Distribution of bitcoin ownership by # of coins (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=316297.0). Title: Re: Long-term Log Chart: $500 by Late Winter Post by: rpietila on October 23, 2013, 06:41:27 PM This might be of interest here. Distribution of bitcoin ownership by # of coins (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=316297.0). The problem is you just guessed on the numbers. I would really really like to know the real numbers but by design we never will. If we have a reasonable estimate of the largest holders, number of holders, and shape of the curve, the blanks can be filled with mathematics. The accuracy of the estimates determines how good the result is, but it cannot be arbitrarily bad since we know certain things such as the total number of bitcoins. Anyway, the thread is there as a rally point for a community effort to research on the topic and arrive at better understanding. Title: Re: Long-term Log Chart: $500 by Late Winter Post by: theonewhowaskazu on October 23, 2013, 08:50:29 PM This might be of interest here. Distribution of bitcoin ownership by # of coins (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=316297.0). The problem is you just guessed on the numbers. I would really really like to know the real numbers but by design we never will. If we have a reasonable estimate of the largest holders, number of holders, and shape of the curve, the blanks can be filled with mathematics. The accuracy of the estimates determines how good the result is, but it cannot be arbitrarily bad since we know certain things such as the total number of bitcoins. Anyway, the thread is there as a rally point for a community effort to research on the topic and arrive at better understanding. I highly doubt the biggest holders would ever intentionally tell you how many coins they have. That'd be pretty dumb if they did. Their biggest advantage is nobody knows what they're doing. |
