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Author Topic: Long-term Log Chart: $500 by Late Winter  (Read 7029 times)
Zangelbert Bingledack (OP)
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October 16, 2013, 09:44:33 AM
Last edit: October 16, 2013, 11:21:45 AM by Zangelbert Bingledack
 #1



Of course, with overexuberance we may spike into quadruple digits for a brief time.

NOTE: At this exponential growth rate it takes 3.5 months to double and a little less than a year to increase tenfold. That suggests ballpark figures of $5000 by early 2015 and $50,000 by about the end of 2015, with the market cap reaching $1 trillion around Spring 2016. That's trillion with a "T" - full mainstream adoption in 2.5 years. If this multi-year trend holds, we're the whole world's in for a wild ride.
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October 16, 2013, 09:54:09 AM
 #2

This line is so random.   Shocked
Zangelbert Bingledack (OP)
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October 16, 2013, 10:03:55 AM
 #3

This line is so random.   Shocked

It's simply meant to approximate the average trend. I left out early price movements because they looked artificial. If I had included them the price targets would be quite a bit higher/sooner. I also arbitrarily discounted the 2011 bubble; had I left it in the price targets would be higher/sooner.
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October 16, 2013, 10:11:02 AM
 #4

So you took a logarithmic chart and drew a line with windows paint? Cool...

Zangelbert Bingledack (OP)
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October 16, 2013, 10:13:17 AM
 #5

Exactly. It's a simple exponential trend, but easy to miss for the short-term turbulence.
cypherdoc
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October 16, 2013, 10:15:42 AM
 #6

What we're witnessing here with Bitcoin is truly an amazing phenomenon which the vast majority miss or refuse to believe.

A deep understanding of what money is has always been the most essential thing. Thank you Austrians.
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October 16, 2013, 10:17:35 AM
 #7



Of course, with overexuberance we may spike into quadruple digits for a brief time.

NOTE: At this exponential growth rate it takes a little less than a year to increase tenfold. That suggests ballpark figures of $5000 by early 2015 and $50,000 by about the end of 2015, with the market cap reaching $1 trillion around Spring 2016. That's trillion with a "T" - full mainstream adoption in 2.5 years. If this multi-year trend holds, we're the whole world's in for a wild ride.

So in less than 10 year a bitcoin will be worth $1,500,000,000,000 and the entire blockchain $20,000,000,000,000,000,000
Thats 20 quintillion.

Next.
Zangelbert Bingledack (OP)
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October 16, 2013, 10:18:39 AM
 #8

cypherdoc,

Even many Austrians are missing it: http://libertyhq.freeforums.org/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1335
Zangelbert Bingledack (OP)
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October 16, 2013, 10:23:37 AM
Last edit: October 16, 2013, 10:34:13 AM by Zangelbert Bingledack
 #9

So in less than 10 year a bitcoin will be worth $1,500,000,000,000 and the entire blockchain $20,000,000,000,000,000,000
Thats 20 quintillion.

Adoption is S-shaped:



That means exponential growth followed by exponential decay in growth. Unless you have a reason why Bitcoin would stop midway through to mainstream adoption, I see no reason for the tapering to begin before mainstream adoption is reached, though of course after that growth must slow.
cypherdoc
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October 16, 2013, 10:41:03 AM
 #10



Of course, with overexuberance we may spike into quadruple digits for a brief time.

NOTE: At this exponential growth rate it takes a little less than a year to increase tenfold. That suggests ballpark figures of $5000 by early 2015 and $50,000 by about the end of 2015, with the market cap reaching $1 trillion around Spring 2016. That's trillion with a "T" - full mainstream adoption in 2.5 years. If this multi-year trend holds, we're the whole world's in for a wild ride.

So in less than 10 year a bitcoin will be worth $1,500,000,000,000 and the entire blockchain $20,000,000,000,000,000,000
Thats 20 quintillion.

Next.

Puppet, ZB is simply applying the same exponential growth functions to the price that you keep insisting apply to the difficulty in the Hardware forum.
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October 16, 2013, 10:42:03 AM
 #11

Recent boost can not last that long.

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cypherdoc
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October 16, 2013, 10:43:08 AM
 #12

cypherdoc,

Even many Austrians are missing it: http://libertyhq.freeforums.org/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1335

I'm well aware of them. Their bodies are strewn all over my gold thread Smiley
Zangelbert Bingledack (OP)
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October 16, 2013, 10:55:01 AM
Last edit: October 16, 2013, 11:22:54 AM by Zangelbert Bingledack
 #13

There are Austrians who can't think for themselves and those that can. Nice how the ones who can get to make the dough.

--

For a slightly more conservative estimate (14 months for every order of magnitude instead of about 11.5 months in my version), see this projected chart from adamas's post. "$200 by Christmas, $500 by late Spring, $1000 by Fall." (A little over 4 months to double.)

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October 16, 2013, 03:33:07 PM
 #14

I posted about this chart before. The trend line can just be conveniently drawn wherever you want and the current date would be supported at anywhere from 30 to 150.
Zangelbert Bingledack (OP)
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October 16, 2013, 06:51:14 PM
 #15

The trend line can just be conveniently drawn wherever you want

Not really. It's not an analyst's trendline, it's an approximation similar to a moving average. I could have just as easily posted the following chart, showing moving averages. Just straighten out those lines and move them up a bit to compensate for them being moving averages, and you have something like what the line in the OP is supposed to be.



Or more simply, the area under the line should be roughly equal to the area below the line (in my case I discounted the 2011 bubble slightly and started when the price looked more realistic, which is the only arbitrary aspect to my line; had I not done that, the target prices would be higher). You can't draw a line like that however you want.
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October 16, 2013, 07:47:00 PM
 #16

Math identifies numerical trends but not the "why".  let's put a story behind these numbers:

Once China BTC early adopter acceptance is saturated, it will be MUCH easier to convince a supplier to accept the currency.  This will allow the use of bitcoin for small volume wholesale purchasing.  The repetitive nature of these relationships makes the front-end effort of setting up a bitcoin payment channel (ie. EUR -> exchange -> BTC -> payment -> BTC -> other exchange -> CNY) worthwhile.

This is the first killer app for bitcoin -- B2B sourcing for small to medium sized companies.  These Chinese companies do not take Paypal (I'm not sure why), instead requesting something like Western Union.  For example, I was recently involved in prototyping and sourcing 1000-10000 units of a custom remote control, and other electronics.  We are talking prototype payments of 100 - 500 euro and wholesale order of 1000 - 30000 euro.  Payment was an incredible PITA, especially for the prototype.  A 100 euro payment took 400 euro in time (it took more time to set up the payment then the entire rest of the prototype vendor selection process)  This adoption process is slow and mostly invisible to the consumer (you), and will even be considered by some companies to be a confidential competitive advantage.  So expect news about this to be under-reported.  This is 2014. 

In 2015, adoption by Chinese suppliers will back-drive BTC adoption within non-early adopter small businesses in the rest of the world, especially for low margin products.  This should be aided by another year for the rest of the world to streamline the fiat to BTC conversion process within this legal environment.  This adoption will primarily be driven by the desire to reduce costs and will drive BTC into businesses outside of technology circles.


Simultaneously with world-to-China B2B commerce India will begin its early adopter acquisition bubble (spring 2014).  Mid to late 2014 will see the beginnings of world->India payments for B2B IT and consulting services, with real volumes happening late 2015 to 2016.

Broad B2B international commerce adoption will set the stage for these same companies to offer Bitcoin as a payment option to their direct sales (ebay etc) outlets, but I expect non-technical consumers will not move to the currency unless driven to it by political issues resulting in fiat instability.  However, a consumer "killer-app" (ad-less browsing or something) might drive end user adoption earlier.

At the same time 2014-2016, remittance will continue to grow slowly but will be hampered by lack of smart phone and fiat->BTC exchanges in the destination countries.  Adoption will be highest in countries with good tech infrastructure, an unstable fiat currency, and remittance.  Argentina looks to be the best bet, India looks quite good.

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October 16, 2013, 07:50:12 PM
 #17

Puppet, ZB is simply applying the same exponential growth functions to the price that you keep insisting apply to the difficulty in the Hardware forum.

Haha. Snap.
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October 16, 2013, 10:44:41 PM
 #18

I tend to believe in this trendline:



So by next September we should be at about $1000. Anything within that period is subject to at least a couple of months lag.

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October 16, 2013, 11:29:53 PM
 #19

Wait til China and India and all the backward countries adopt it then it will really go up! HEck they dont even know bitcoin exists. Wait! I almost forgot all the people in Mexico and all the people in the slums of Rio. Wait til they buy bitcoins and hold them while their families starve to death or they are put out into the streets. But they will still be true to good ole bitcoin. BRAINWASHED LEMMINGS!! ALL OF YOU!
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October 16, 2013, 11:34:53 PM
 #20

I tend to believe in this trendline:



So by next September we should be at about $1000. Anything within that period is subject to at least a couple of months lag.

Price hasn't caught up with difficult increase since June. Miners are now subsidizing bitcoin generation, while ASIC manufacturers and traders are profiting. Miners cannot be like the gubbermint for long.

Revewing Bitcoin / Crypto mining Hardware.
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