Title: $20-ish correction soon, then climb continues Post by: theonewhowaskazu on October 19, 2013, 03:50:39 PM Just a prediction. I'm not sure exactly when timeline-wise the $20-ish correction downwards will come, but it'll happen around when we hit about $200. This will be triggered by two forms of short-term speculation:
(1): Miners, who have been mining at a loss for a while, will have reached a point at which they can actually take some USD profit. While obviously many miners will be in it for the long-haul, or just want BTC, a fair amount I suspect will sell at levels about $200/coin. (2): A huge sell wall is likely to build at about $200, due to the top reason and just the psychological barrier, which is likely to intimidate bulls in the short-term. When we stall out, we'll likely get a bearish wedge formation that will break downwards, only to just continue back up once everybody realizes that nothing is actually happening. (3): Obviously people who bought around $200 last bubble will jump on this to sell. Another such point will be obviously at $266. Just my thoughts. Title: Re: $20-ish correction soon, then climb continues Post by: Xer0 on October 19, 2013, 03:54:56 PM just wanted to start a thread about this
it will be a good buy opportunity! Title: Re: $20-ish correction soon, then climb continues Post by: theonewhowaskazu on October 19, 2013, 04:06:20 PM just wanted to start a thread about this it will be a good buy opportunity! Yup. The thing I can't figure out though, is whether Gox is more likely to bounce off, bringing Bitstamp with it, or will gox climb to about $220, while bitstamp hits $200, and then the Bitstamp, having the wedge, falls, bringing Gox with it, and then Gox's $200 proceeds to act as a support, actually ending the $20 slide. If its the latter, this is still a fairly good buying opportunity (right now.) If its the former, you'll likely be able to buy at $150-$160 again in the near future on Bitstamp, so no need to get too worried. Title: Re: $20-ish correction soon, then climb continues Post by: gizmoh on October 19, 2013, 04:07:30 PM We hit $195 briefly, then sell off came. Afterwards 10k btc ask appear till 200, so i believe part who want to sell around 200 are in the asks.
Dumping is less and less rewarding, having no reversing effect, only giving less dollar, a sign of bubbling trend. I'm more inclined to believe $250 is the figure to be met with great resistance, being the big psychological barrier close to ATH of 266. If we past it, then peak should be easily above $290. Title: Re: $20-ish correction soon, then climb continues Post by: notme on October 19, 2013, 04:07:39 PM just wanted to start a thread about this it will be a good buy opportunity! place your bids only 2 days higher than today :) and one of those days, we also hit 105 ;) Title: Re: $20-ish correction soon, then climb continues Post by: theonewhowaskazu on October 19, 2013, 04:14:50 PM and one of those days, we also hit 105 ;) Man, I wish I could get that price now ~.~Title: Re: $20-ish correction soon, then climb continues Post by: NamelessOne on October 19, 2013, 04:15:31 PM A correction would make reasonable sense and would be healthy for the market. Permabears would scream victory before shutting up as it climbs again.
Title: Re: $20-ish correction soon, then climb continues Post by: notme on October 19, 2013, 04:17:58 PM A correction would make reasonable sense and would be healthy for the market. Permabears would scream victory before shutting up as it climbs again. We could use a good, strong, ABC correction, but I doubt the bulls will let such an opportunity pass for long. Title: Re: $20-ish correction soon, then climb continues Post by: Tzupy on October 19, 2013, 04:47:25 PM In order to clarify if we are on a parabolic trajectory or not, the price level after the correction will be most helpful.
Title: Re: $20-ish correction soon, then climb continues Post by: bitcon on October 19, 2013, 05:10:31 PM wait, what happened to $160?
Title: Re: $20-ish correction soon, then climb continues Post by: theonewhowaskazu on October 19, 2013, 05:55:11 PM Hmmm, could that be the long-awaited correction?
I doubt it. If it is, I'll be very disappointed. It came too soon, and was too small, to count as a legitimate correction, IMO. Title: Re: $20-ish correction soon, then climb continues Post by: notme on October 19, 2013, 06:21:38 PM Hmmm, could that be the long-awaited correction? I doubt it. If it is, I'll be very disappointed. It came too soon, and was too small, to count as a legitimate correction, IMO. That was A. Soon we'll have the upmove for B, then C down. C should extend 1.6 times as far as A. But then again, this is bitcoin, so anything can happen. Title: Re: $20-ish correction soon, then climb continues Post by: theonewhowaskazu on October 19, 2013, 06:27:47 PM Hmmm, could that be the long-awaited correction? I doubt it. If it is, I'll be very disappointed. It came too soon, and was too small, to count as a legitimate correction, IMO. That was A. Soon we'll have the upmove for B, then C down. C should extend 1.6 times as far as A. But then again, this is bitcoin, so anything can happen. Where were the upward waves? I just see one big upward movement, TBH. The only charts that ever seem to move in elliot waves to me are traditional forex charts. Anything that is more news/speculation affected seems to just trend until some news happens, or just generally act ballistic like Bitcoin. Title: Re: $20-ish correction soon, then climb continues Post by: notme on October 19, 2013, 06:31:55 PM Hmmm, could that be the long-awaited correction? I doubt it. If it is, I'll be very disappointed. It came too soon, and was too small, to count as a legitimate correction, IMO. That was A. Soon we'll have the upmove for B, then C down. C should extend 1.6 times as far as A. But then again, this is bitcoin, so anything can happen. Where were the upward waves? I just see one big upward movement, TBH. The only charts that ever seem to move in elliot waves to me are traditional forex charts. Anything that is more news/speculation affected seems to just trend until some news happens, or just generally act ballistic like Bitcoin. We have completed wave 5 off the $65 bottom. This 5 wave structure, IMO, is wave 1 of the all time 5th wave. Wave 1 ended at $32, 3 at $266, and we are starting wave 5. After a decent correction, we will have wave 3 up that should be larger than wave 1. This is, of course, only one possible scenario. I can't predict the future. Title: Re: $20-ish correction soon, then climb continues Post by: KFR on October 19, 2013, 06:37:30 PM I can't predict the future. That kind of rational humility has no place in these forums. :P Title: Re: $20-ish correction soon, then climb continues Post by: theonewhowaskazu on October 19, 2013, 06:42:14 PM Hmmm, could that be the long-awaited correction? I doubt it. If it is, I'll be very disappointed. It came too soon, and was too small, to count as a legitimate correction, IMO. That was A. Soon we'll have the upmove for B, then C down. C should extend 1.6 times as far as A. But then again, this is bitcoin, so anything can happen. Where were the upward waves? I just see one big upward movement, TBH. The only charts that ever seem to move in elliot waves to me are traditional forex charts. Anything that is more news/speculation affected seems to just trend until some news happens, or just generally act ballistic like Bitcoin. We have completed wave 5 off the $65 bottom. This 5 wave structure, IMO, is wave 1 of the all time 5th wave. Wave 1 ended at $32, 3 at $266, and we are starting wave 5. After a decent correction, we will have wave 3 up that should be larger than wave 1. This is, of course, only one possible scenario. I can't predict the future. So by this theory, basically each "bubble" was an upward "all time" wave, and each "crash" was a downward "all time" wave? That means that wave 5 began at $57, correct? So, by this theory, we're going to have to break $400 in all-time-wave-5, before correcting downward to about $32? Wow, thats going to be a slight issue, is it not? I mean, its bitcoin, so I'm not disputing that it has the potential to happen, but... yea. EDIT: have you tried applying the elliot wave on a log chart? Maybe that would prevent those wild swings from being quite so wild. Title: Re: $20-ish correction soon, then climb continues Post by: notme on October 19, 2013, 06:47:30 PM Log vs. Linear doesn't change the wave structure, but sometimes changing the axis can make it a little easier to recognize the structure. For long term, there really isn't much option but log or percentage since otherwise everything before 8 months ago is flat on a linear scale.
Title: Re: $20-ish correction soon, then climb continues Post by: Johnny Bitcoinseed on October 19, 2013, 06:56:46 PM It appears many new faces have entered the market and are entering the market. My feeling is there will likely be corrections perhaps near the $200 mark (which is arbitrary after all) but the general longer-term trend will be upward. Once $200 is well broken in then the next psychological barrier may be much higher.
Title: Re: $20-ish correction soon, then climb continues Post by: matt608 on October 19, 2013, 09:12:00 PM Looks like the OP was right, so how high will we climb? $300 by Christmas doesn't seem extravagant.
Title: Re: $20-ish correction soon, then climb continues Post by: danyy on October 19, 2013, 09:19:21 PM a small dump already happened at 194, yesterday night
Title: Re: $20-ish correction soon, then climb continues Post by: adamstgBit on October 19, 2013, 09:33:53 PM Title: Re: $20-ish correction soon, then climb continues Post by: fiddelingones on October 19, 2013, 09:34:43 PM Looks like the OP was right, so how high will we climb? $300 by Christmas doesn't seem extravagant. Its too soon to say next buble is comming, and I believe it will be pretty tough go to all time high, because those who bought 225+ may waiting to sell all Title: Re: $20-ish correction soon, then climb continues Post by: damnek on October 19, 2013, 09:48:31 PM Looks like the OP was right, so how high will we climb? $300 by Christmas doesn't seem extravagant. Its too soon to say next buble is comming, and I believe it will be pretty tough go to all time high, because those who bought 225+ may waiting to sell all I don't think people who were buying at that point are the kind to have a strategy ;D We cut through the $31 high like butter last time. |