$20-ish correction soon, then climb continues

[theonewhowaskazu]

Just a prediction. I'm not sure exactly when timeline-wise the $20-ish correction downwards will come, but it'll happen around when we hit about $200. This will be triggered by two forms of short-term speculation:

(1): Miners, who have been mining at a loss for a while, will have reached a point at which they can actually take some USD profit. While obviously many miners will be in it for the long-haul, or just want BTC, a fair amount I suspect will sell at levels about $200/coin.

(2): A huge sell wall is likely to build at about $200, due to the top reason and just the psychological barrier, which is likely to intimidate bulls in the short-term. When we stall out, we'll likely get a bearish wedge formation that will break downwards, only to just continue back up once everybody realizes that nothing is actually happening.

(3): Obviously people who bought around $200 last bubble will jump on this to sell. Another such point will be obviously at $266.

Just my thoughts.

[Xer0]

just wanted to start a thread about this

it will be a good buy opportunity!

[theonewhowaskazu]

just wanted to start a thread about this

it will be a good buy opportunity!

Yup.

The thing I can't figure out though, is whether Gox is more likely to bounce off, bringing Bitstamp with it, or will gox climb to about $220, while bitstamp hits $200, and then the Bitstamp, having the wedge, falls, bringing Gox with it, and then Gox's $200 proceeds to act as a support, actually ending the $20 slide.

If its the latter, this is still a fairly good buying opportunity (right now.) If its the former, you'll likely be able to buy at $150-$160 again in the near future on Bitstamp, so no need to get too worried.

[gizmoh]

We hit $195 briefly, then sell off came. Afterwards 10k btc ask appear till 200, so i believe part who want to sell around 200 are in the asks.
Dumping is less and less rewarding, having no reversing effect, only giving less dollar, a sign of bubbling trend.
I'm more inclined to believe $250 is the figure to be met with great resistance, being the big psychological barrier close to ATH of 266.
If we past it, then peak should be easily above $290.

[notme]

just wanted to start a thread about this

it will be a good buy opportunity!

place your bids

only 2 days higher than today

and one of those days, we also hit 105

[theonewhowaskazu]

and one of those days, we also hit 105

Man, I wish I could get that price now ~.~

[NamelessOne]

A correction would make reasonable sense and would be healthy for the market. Permabears would scream victory before shutting up as it climbs again.

[notme]

A correction would make reasonable sense and would be healthy for the market. Permabears would scream victory before shutting up as it climbs again.

We could use a good, strong, ABC correction, but I doubt the bulls will let such an opportunity pass for long.

[Tzupy]

In order to clarify if we are on a parabolic trajectory or not, the price level after the correction will be most helpful.

[bitcon]

wait, what happened to $160?

[theonewhowaskazu]

Hmmm, could that be the long-awaited correction?

I doubt it. If it is, I'll be very disappointed. It came too soon, and was too small, to count as a legitimate correction, IMO.

[notme]

Hmmm, could that be the long-awaited correction?

I doubt it. If it is, I'll be very disappointed. It came too soon, and was too small, to count as a legitimate correction, IMO.

That was A.  Soon we'll have the upmove for B, then C down.  C should extend 1.6 times as far as A.  But then again, this is bitcoin, so anything can happen.

[theonewhowaskazu]

Hmmm, could that be the long-awaited correction?

I doubt it. If it is, I'll be very disappointed. It came too soon, and was too small, to count as a legitimate correction, IMO.

That was A.  Soon we'll have the upmove for B, then C down.  C should extend 1.6 times as far as A.  But then again, this is bitcoin, so anything can happen.

Where were the upward waves? I just see one big upward movement, TBH.

The only charts that ever seem to move in elliot waves to me are traditional forex charts. Anything that is more news/speculation affected seems to just trend until some news happens, or just generally act ballistic like Bitcoin.

[notme]

Hmmm, could that be the long-awaited correction?

I doubt it. If it is, I'll be very disappointed. It came too soon, and was too small, to count as a legitimate correction, IMO.

That was A.  Soon we'll have the upmove for B, then C down.  C should extend 1.6 times as far as A.  But then again, this is bitcoin, so anything can happen.

Where were the upward waves? I just see one big upward movement, TBH.

The only charts that ever seem to move in elliot waves to me are traditional forex charts. Anything that is more news/speculation affected seems to just trend until some news happens, or just generally act ballistic like Bitcoin.

We have completed wave 5 off the $65 bottom.  This 5 wave structure, IMO, is wave 1 of the all time 5th wave.  Wave 1 ended at $32, 3 at $266, and we are starting wave 5.  After a decent correction, we will have wave 3 up that should be larger than wave 1.  This is, of course, only one possible scenario.  I can't predict the future.

[KFR]

I can't predict the future.

That kind of rational humility has no place in these forums.

[theonewhowaskazu]

Hmmm, could that be the long-awaited correction?

I doubt it. If it is, I'll be very disappointed. It came too soon, and was too small, to count as a legitimate correction, IMO.

That was A.  Soon we'll have the upmove for B, then C down.  C should extend 1.6 times as far as A.  But then again, this is bitcoin, so anything can happen.

Where were the upward waves? I just see one big upward movement, TBH.

The only charts that ever seem to move in elliot waves to me are traditional forex charts. Anything that is more news/speculation affected seems to just trend until some news happens, or just generally act ballistic like Bitcoin.

We have completed wave 5 off the $65 bottom.  This 5 wave structure, IMO, is wave 1 of the all time 5th wave.  Wave 1 ended at $32, 3 at $266, and we are starting wave 5.  After a decent correction, we will have wave 3 up that should be larger than wave 1.  This is, of course, only one possible scenario.  I can't predict the future.

So by this theory, basically each "bubble" was an upward "all time" wave, and each "crash" was a downward "all time" wave?

That means that wave 5 began at $57, correct? So, by this theory, we're going to have to break $400 in all-time-wave-5, before correcting downward to about $32?

Wow, thats going to be a slight issue, is it not? I mean, its bitcoin, so I'm not disputing that it has the potential to happen, but... yea.

EDIT: have you tried applying the elliot wave on a log chart? Maybe that would prevent those wild swings from being quite so wild.

[notme]

Log vs. Linear doesn't change the wave structure, but sometimes changing the axis can make it a little easier to recognize the structure.  For long term, there really isn't much option but log or percentage since otherwise everything before 8 months ago is flat on a linear scale.

[Johnny Bitcoinseed]

It appears many new faces have entered the market and are entering the market.  My feeling is there will likely be corrections perhaps near the $200 mark (which is arbitrary after all) but the general longer-term trend will be upward.  Once $200 is well broken in then the next psychological barrier may be much higher.

[matt608]

Looks like the OP was right, so how high will we climb? $300 by Christmas doesn't seem extravagant.

[danyy]

a small dump already happened at 194, yesterday night