Bitcoin Forum

Guys,

What do you think the price will be of today if he didn't dumped the Mt. Gox coins?

(1) - The price will rode new all-time-high and we maybe around the $20K-$30K by now?
(2) - The price will eventually plummet no matter what because of the sudden rise last December when there's a lot of investors (FOMO) suddenly pours cash on the market?

Please share your thoughts?

It's difficult to estimate, because there are 2 contradicting stories.

Story 1 says that he did indeed dump the coins at these given dates:

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-03-07/bitcoins-tokyo-whale-sells-400m-bitcoin-bitcoin-cash

Story 2 says that he did not sell on these days, only moved the coins:

https://cointelegraph.com/news/breaking-trustee-of-infamous-mt-gox-denies-btc-bch-sales-affected-crypto-markets

The official statement in MtGox website:

https://www.mtgox.com/img/pdf/20180317_qa.pdf

At this point it's probably a mix of two. Something strange happened and we are not getting the full picture, and uncertainty = panic sellers are easily triggered and avalanche begins.

There are no strong fundamentals for this continued crash. Current prices will be seen as a bargain eventually.

Well, it can not be discused much, but we all know that he really dumped all their coins a few days ago if i am not wrong.

And no, it is not going to change anything, there is a lot of FUD in bitcoin right now and to make it go up again would take more than months from now.

Its really hard to say what's going to happened. Maybe we hit new ATH or maybe we went south. One thing though is that is market is based on speculation and just one FUD, (usually coming from the media), so if a long the way their's bad news that will come then the market will make a correction even if there's no dumping from Mr. Kobayashi.

And sooner or later, after the December madness, I believed that market correction will eventually come as well, so as what @ pereira4 have said, it could be a mix of both and the best thing to do is take advantage of the current situation.

Supposedly he didn't dump the coins and the price crashed like it did. I buy in to this in a lot of ways, the price was inevitably going to fall when you look at the growth from December. It's easy to say that in hindsight at the time but because we are all so believing in bitcoin it's easy to be blinded by simple facts and one of those is that nothing can sustain such growth as bitcoin had in the end of 2017.

It was a classic bubble which means there was no particular reason for the rise and the only reason for the fall is that people realised they'd outrageously overpaid and then ran for it leading to a collapse in price.

Considering the amount of coins that changed hands in recent months these Gox coins are a drop in the ocean.

I agree. But there was a reason for the "rise". It was mania, hype and FOMO. The same as the bubbles of the past.

Any rising market based on hype will surely crash. Where are the people who said the climb to all time highs was based on usage and adoption? Gone, or has changed their stance I believe.


I am not so sure about that.

an interesting thought but you are asking this question as if it was already 100% proven that the sales by Mt. Gox trustee caused the drop in bitcoin price. but in fact there has been no proof and for all we know their sells didn't do much to the price.

in my opinion there is a possibility that this sell off caused some additional sell pressure on the market and even it is possible that it caused some panic sells among whales who were monitoring these big funds even before the news was spread but I don't think it was the only reason for the drop.
with that said without it price would have still come down from $20k to $10k and possibly even the first drop from $10k to $5900 would have also happened in a smaller size and we may not have seen the recent drop below $9k.

First of all, we don't know for sure whether this story is true or not. Even if it is true, how much impact $400 million sale is going to have, especially when the daily trade volume is around $6.5 billion? If the sale was spread out over a number of days (which looks very likely), then I would say that it would be having a very insignificant impact on the prices.

The price could have fall but not to the level that we have seen. Outside the dump by Mt. Gox trustee there were a lot of others fundamentals issues that plug bitcoin price down. The time is coming when most of the things that are happening now will be a things of the past and the place that price ought to be will be achieved.

he have 110 K bitcoin he can sell 301 bitcoin for a year and like this he will not affect the price so much as selling 10000 coin in one tiem i wish he do it

we dont know because there are a few FUD generating stories going around like the G20 one which is over now.

In the end of the day there is no point panicking or wondering about negative stories because crypto will not evaporate to nothing,
developers are still working on their projects, people are still using crypto the same as before, nothing stops.

the only thing is traders think differently.

I can agree with you,if Kobayashi sell 400$ million worth of BTC in few months time this could not have been the only reason why price is started to move down.Based on some daily volumes it is not even 10% of some usual day on the markets.It is clear that the price was unrealistic and the correction was inevitable.I bet some whales have info about MtGox and they just got scared Kobayashi will crush price down,so the sale began.

Regarding the remaining amount of BTC worth around 1.9$ billion,I do not believe it will be available for sale soon.I think the current price does not satisfy Kobayashi and the ones he represents.I'm not sure is there a deadline in which remaining BTC must be sold,but if that is not the case they will probably wait new ATH.

Yeah, I would also think that bitcoin will fall that hard after what we have seen last December. So the fall is about to happen, personally, it should have happen much earlier around January-February.

However, the Mt. Gox dumping has really help or somewhat push the price to its edge, and know we are all somewhat suffering from all this brouhaha.

Ok, follow this address and determine whether or not he caused the crash.

https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/address/16rCmCmbuWDhPjWTrpQGaU3EPdZF7MTdUk (https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/address/16rCmCmbuWDhPjWTrpQGaU3EPdZF7MTdUk)

  MF'er just sent 5000 on March 5th when price hit 11.7k  and we dumped to 7.2.  There was a good chance then to run up to 15k.    Now he just moved 3000 more BTC yesterday morning 3-19-18 right when we hit 8.7k and was moving up.   Now it's nothing but down and sideways.

I followed 4 of those address and they were split into 1000BTC chunks.. it's confirmed that 1 of the address's was Bitfinex.    We all need to start asking some questions on this.


My hypothesis is that he is working with an exchange to use those coins to short the market.  He'll get market price and the exchange he's running it through get's the money from the shorts.   There's some real shady shit going on here fellas.

I do not see that 3000 BTC did make some difference,price is actually go above 9000$ and it is still holding above that level.I think that's the right question is how much BTC MtGox have now,because according to this addresses MtGoxTrusteeMonitor (http://coindata.info/mtgox.php) 162105 BTC are still intact.This is the amount that was allegedly still left for sale,but since you say Kobayashi is moving thousands of BTC to exchanges,obviously there is more coins than we think(assuming all the data are accurate).

I do not see anything suspicious in fact that Kobayashi has only one goal,sell everything and get as much money.The only thing that matters is to do it over a long period of time to avoid price going down too much.

We can't know if he is selling or just moving, but it's pretty obvious that if he is moving... then why the hell would he be moving if not to sell? that's his sole mission. So it is reasonable to think that moved coins mean sold coins isn't it? Which is why I think he was lying. If these coins move, the MF'er is indeed selling in my book.

https://btc.com/16rCmCmbuWDhPjWTrpQGaU3EPdZF7MTdUk

Who the hell is making these small 0.044 transactions into the address anyway?

If he dups it as economical actor there won2t be any problems. As he will wait coin to be pumped for his ongoing planned dumps. On the other hand even if he rejects I think he dumped some in wrong time and don't wanna be blamed :D

Along with the decline in transaction fees and growing new users the market will be able to move about more naturally (non-manipulation) and certainly bitcoin will continue to record its new price maybe the bitcoin price has now reached between $ 20K - $ 30K,  As said above.

Price would be pretty much the same.  When he was selling there was huge liquidity on Bitcoin market. He did almost at perfect time. If he would start selling today there would be totally different story.

But it can be seen if it was done or not by the overall volume contained in all bitcoin related markets who are actually tracking it's climbs and dumps.
The overall difference of the sold and bought amount of bitcoin would sway once it is done.
People will know at this time it was done.

Many accounts exchanges on which there are now coins are known. I think that any movement of these coins will now cause panic in the market. I think the point of this story is not yet delivered. Whales will use this situation to crash the market. It seems to me that all this year we will be hostages of this exchange.

You cannot be sure what exactly he did. I'm not going to buy anything that the articles are mentioning about it unless any concrete proof is available. Had the issue of Mt. Gox trustee not brought up, something or the other would have come around because that's one's gotta expect. I don't actually care on why the price is falling or rising due to current affairs, I work out things as per seeing how it'll work out in the long run and so far it has been really good.

If that dumping issue by Mt. Gox trustee is the reason behind the dip last month then we could easily that if they don't do the dumping then absolutely we will hit the all time high of $25K minimum. But i also think that the correction might also be the factor on that dip.

The market didn't stand a chance against the major resistance it faced and would face if it actually wanted to break through that level. It was clear already that a massive dump would follow before the $20,000 mark.

Everyone with at least some form of basic market understanding would be able to predict the outcome when the price would move over $19,000 last year. Anything over $19,000 should be an instant sell for everyone.

MtGox definitely had an effect on the market, but AFTER the correction initiated itself. The speculation about the future markets drove the price up, and as soon as CME entered, the market took a dive because of that.

The market increases in advance of the happening. Once things happened, gone hype, gone speculation, gone buy support.