Bitcoin Forum

Remember the bubble earlier this year, it was an all out war of bears vs bulls, with many people calling a bubble. This time we are hitting $200 and there isn't much debate. Thoughts?

We are $20 until you can say hitting 200.

If it is a bubble, it is just when first molecules of air are entering it.

This is known territory. Look again when we are approaching $5000

Bubbles always pop as soon as everyone stops thinking it's a bubble. As long as people still yell "bubble", the bubble will keep inflating ;).

fyp

Man, being a poor college student sucks balls.

It's not even a bubble yet, too early. At least wait for it to go parabolic

i've seen lots of bubble talk (from bears). don't know where you are looking. crosses my mind all day as well.....

it did.

Before bubble talk can begin we have to be hitting ATHs. The moment we hit an ATH, or even go within $10 of hitting one, there'll be severe bubble talk again. This will continue for several months and then the bubble will 'pop' and we will 'crash' to about x3 the price where we are right now.

This has happened several times now. I'm sorta surprised the market doesn't self-correct, at this point.

This rally/bubble seems to be china-driven. Hence a lack of talk. Or you could argue 2011 bubble was 32; early 2013 bubble 267 (~8x); so the next bubble should be 267*8 = 2K. If we hit 2k ill start calling the bubble.

PS - BTCChina just had a print > 200 USD-equivs.

Makes sense. We are just along for the ride on this one.

You can scream bubble bubble at all of us and we could even agree, but it would not affect the price.

Perhaps some of the hardcore bears have learned their lesson on being too bearish and then having the market move against them violently.

fyp ;)

I also think we are seeing casual/hobby mining dying. Very little BTC is being pumped into these companies anymore - the entire summer the mining industry was a suck for BTCs (which then had to be converted to fiat). Now that the ASIC fiasco is winding down and people are realizing its better to buy-hold than speculate on mining we are seeing an increase in price. Very little movement out of BTCs.

I think it goes without saying we are witnessing a bubble. I think most of us have seen this several times before.

Yeah I really don't like this parabolic movement at all. I can't get any sleep. I would much prefer a slow linearish rise of 1% per day, all the way to $5000.

no sleep here either  :-\

we're deff in bubble territory considering btc has only ever been this high in value for one day, give or take some hours

How does that make it a bubble? The opposite also isn't true. Bubbles can only be identified ex post facto :)

ok see you at the bottom  8)

Sure. I'll ride this thing wherever it goes 8)

Bears are embarrassed. But I am sure if we go down to 175 Blitz and ElectricMucus will make 400 posts about how smart they are.

OMG, it's a bubble!!  :o :o :o Sell! Sell! Sell!

(happy?)

might be at a top here

We're at the levels where I sold last time. I still think BTC is grossly overvalued and we're on the way down from the April bubble peak.

what are your thoughts for key support levels?

Another way to look at it is, the extreme cost of mining discourages miners from selling at lower prices. 

That's because there is hardly any bubble this time. Last time it $10 to $260 in relatively short time period. Price should be at least at $500 before we can even began to talk about bubble.

I think the "bubbling" is not neccessarily the amount of price increase but what can be seen in the bid depth and the lack of capitulation moves and tested support levels. It is just nonstop buying (hence 'overbought') and way up in the bollinger band. Just think with a $60 movement, $700M market cap has been added. Has $700M been invested?

my thinking as well. i don't buy this "price has to be n times the previous bubble top to mention it" thinking.

It's because all the bears are buying back in...

Buying back in now is a pretty risky/stupid move. You might end up like this guy:

http://images2.fanpop.com/image/photos/9100000/Scrat-ice-age-9135926-1024-768.jpg

The smart squirrels are waiting for the bulls and bears to finish shaking the nut bush so as to pick up the fallen nuts. ;D

No idea. I think on a market like this they can be identified only after the fact.

I think this is not true...

We had a jump $140 to $200 in about 24 hours, and then another jump again $200 to $260 (and back to $60) in another 24 hours. It was definitely much slower in the weeks and months before that. Now we moved $155 to $195 in about 24 hours, that is definitely not normal growth. The only moments bitcoin had this growth EVER was during the bubbles. (excluding dead cat bounce after a massive crash)

If you compare side by side the April bubble with the current one, you can clearly see where we are. This speed of growth $140 to $200 is pretty much the same as the part of the previous bubble from $60 to $120. What happened next was a mad jump doubling again $120 to $240 in . If this is any similar we can see price skyrocket to over $300 or $350 in the next couple days, then badly crash, probably to $100 or so.

I suppose, if price is rising $200 to $250 in more than a week or so, then we are almost safe, and the bubble may touch $500 as you say, but that is when it burst, not when we "begin to talk about bubble", as we are just in the middle of one.

agreed. still upside risk to be sure, but if you waited until now...... i wouldn't.

The only problem with this theory is that it is shared by many. And when a recent bubble is so clear in the investor and trader communities psyche, I wouldn't assume patterns will develop in such a predictable manner.

I suspect when the smoke clears this rally will not be compared to April 2013, at least in a way that is meaningful.

It is a bubble but its being led by the chinese and its only just beginning.

I'd like to think so. I'm still all in. But what makes you say "it's only just beginning"? Chinese market is much harder to read.

Well, it would be odd if this bubble was smaller than the last seeing as there are far more people involved in bitcoin this time and its closer to 'going mainstream' than before, it just seems obvious that the next bubble, if thats what this is, will be much bigger than the last, and seeing as we are still $60 or so below the last ATH I'd say its just beginning.  And I'd say its a bubble because of the parabolic rise, and due to the rise being triggered by news (small Baidu division) that will barely effect the 'underlying bitcoin economy' at all.  Also now that gox has been upgraded and shouldn't crash and we have a stronger set of btc/fiat exchanges, and good news on the way such as buttercoin, I'd say we are just getting started.  Expecting $300 by the end of next week, after that, who knows, but I'm watching BTCchina. I expect they will take us up to 2000cny which is $320, that could be top or maybe they'll take it way higher?  Who knows.

"far more people" -- Numbers? We are six months later, only. How is it closer to going mainstream? How much closer? Why is it obvious that this bubble will be "much bigger than the last"? I'm not convinced that a) the April run-up is an entirely separate event from this run-up, and b) that this rally necessarily must be n times the all-time high. Especially the latter point.

Ok, a few reasons, China wasn't a big player in the previous bubble, but now its booming:

Btcchina is not the only exchange in china (from reddit http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1ozilp/two_things_you_should_know_about_the_volume_of/
)

"in fact here are some examples for today:

*btcchina 56,272.00 *huobi 12,916 *btctrade 11,852.32 *okcoin 11,367.01 *btc100 5,929.73 *fxbtc 2,642.48
Some of the sites may be manipulating numbers, but they are roughly OK.
However, they are all doing free trading right now, because of the fierce competition. That should be part of the reason why the volume is so high."


Other massive bullish news:

Bitcoin meets Google Glass with in-store payment app GlassPay
http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-meets-google-glass-store-payment-app-glasspay/

Also bitcoin has gained a lot of legitimacy since the last bubble, and silk road going down may allow previously unsure investors to invest: http://www.newstatesman.com/business/2013/10/bitcoin-may-be-let-loose-now-silk-road-has-been-shut-down

This and with buttercoin on the way, and loads of positive news streaming in such as Bitcoin being added to the Dutch dictionary, give the whole thing much more power to go up in price!

+1

I do say we're in bubble. But nobody seems to listen or care. Too much frenzy here.

Yes, we might go up to 300 but only to pop much lower.

The bubble is just beginning.

i used to be bubble babbler in the last bubble, i've learnt my lesson

what lesson?

Their is no bubble

I believe most here realize it is bubble. All you need is look how fast the price is rising last days, you dont need to know anything else.

The problem is that there are no good short-selling options with Bitcoin...

we are in the midst of the mother of all bubbles:

the almighty fiat bubble.

in past centuries, when banknotes were invented, people were always wondering if that paper was backed by enough gold. we don´t have this problem currently. our problem is that there isn't even enough paper to print all the money in account.  ::)

edit: italics

word

That's a nice formulation, I'll try to remember it for discussions. ;)

Good formulation indeed, I'll remember it. LOL

600watt, you've just created a future classic citation!

Ok, you asked for it!

http://25.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lxxewggllX1qmrbbso1_500.gif

edit: what i meant is that there isn´t enough paper money "backing" the money in account.  :)

Actually, the other meaning, that there is not enough paper to print all the money stored electronically on all accounts might equally hold true.  :o

Bitfinex might not be perfect, but it allows for short selling. Last I checked, the borrowing rate was as low as 3%. If people think it's a bubble, they certainly aren't willing to bet on it.

People would talk about the bubble when bubble comes, then everyone would go crazy and panic sell creating even more bubble....

it's gonna burst, and it's gonna hurt like fuck, but I guess what we'll do is hold anyway given that it's impossible to know when the bursting will come.

and I figure it will only drop to about 120 then bounce to 150

As soon as there are short sellers the rally will have bigger legs as short covering will add fuel to the fire multiplied by leverage.

The fact that "badly crash" now means $100, to me says that we are definitely NOT in a bubble. If the lows in each cycle are constantly higher than the lows of the previous cycle, then we are still in a long-term up trend. What we are seeing is high volatility within an established up trend. A bubble would be if BTC crashed and then kept going down.

This point can't be overstated. I think that we're due for a correction downward, at least to test these new gains. There will be a buy opp in the $130-$150 range. But blink and you'll miss it.

Very much agreed. Bid support has remained very shallow behind this rally. I can't imagine we don't test those levels sooner rather than later with such a fast run-up.

Yeah, history is repeating itself once again. It feels like April allover again. The possibilities to spend bitcoins obviously aren't increasing with the same speed as the bitcoin price is. And if you look at MtGox's order depth you can see that there are historically few bitcoins for sale, which drives up the exchange price.

I subscribe.

dat profit taking

For all the people that we're saying "this is different now": - THE BUBBLE POPPED! What other proof do you need?

Why is every downward movement a "popped bubble"?
Guess my semantics are quite different compared to yours.

When upward movement continues on for days and days with nonstop buying, no capitulation, and no bid support, it becomes a "bubble". Then when someone sells into that scenario and causes a large correction, the bubble is popped. On the other hand, a downward move that happened into a large bid depth after a long consolidation period would not be popping a bubble.

uhhh the BUBBLE popped ? last week btc was 100 €. today it is 150 €.  what an epic, catastrophic, brutal, mindblowing bubble that was. please every week.  :-*

lol

"bu..bu.. but... we're back to where we were... yesterday!"

+1

so funny, thats why i love this forum, you dont even need a single BTC to have fun.... just read this!

Some bubble.

Bubble preachers, Go back to your reality TV shows, and take your nonsense drama with you.

Looks like head and shoulders with trend reversal.... Time will tell...

Nope, it went parabolic as of today, you are way too early, you need to re-examine your definition of going parabolic