Hardly any 'bubble' talk this time

[byronbb]

Bears are embarrassed. But I am sure if we go down to 175 Blitz and ElectricMucus will make 400 posts about how smart they are.

[freequant]

Remember the bubble earlier this year, it was an all out war of bears vs bulls, with many people calling a bubble. This time we are hitting $200 and there isn't much debate. Thoughts?

OMG, it's a bubble!!  Sell! Sell! Sell!

(happy?)

[sidhujag]

might be at a top here

[mp420]

We're at the levels where I sold last time. I still think BTC is grossly overvalued and we're on the way down from the April bubble peak.

[scarsbergholden]

We're at the levels where I sold last time. I still think BTC is grossly overvalued and we're on the way down from the April bubble peak.

what are your thoughts for key support levels?

[annette786]

This rally/bubble seems to be china-driven.

Makes sense. We are just along for the ride on this one.

You can scream bubble bubble at all of us and we could even agree, but it would not affect the price.

I also think we are seeing casual/hobby mining dying. Very little BTC is being pumped into these companies anymore - the entire summer the mining industry was a suck for BTCs (which then had to be converted to fiat). Now that the ASIC fiasco is winding down and people are realizing its better to buy-hold than speculate on mining we are seeing an increase in price. Very little movement out of BTCs.

Another way to look at it is, the extreme cost of mining discourages miners from selling at lower prices. 

[Gordonium]

That's because there is hardly any bubble this time. Last time it $10 to $260 in relatively short time period. Price should be at least at $500 before we can even began to talk about bubble.

[TERA]

That's because there is hardly any bubble this time. Last time it $10 to $260 in relatively short time period. Price should be at least at $500 before we can even began to talk about bubble.

I think the "bubbling" is not neccessarily the amount of price increase but what can be seen in the bid depth and the lack of capitulation moves and tested support levels. It is just nonstop buying (hence 'overbought') and way up in the bollinger band. Just think with a $60 movement, $700M market cap has been added. Has $700M been invested?

[scarsbergholden]

That's because there is hardly any bubble this time. Last time it $10 to $260 in relatively short time period. Price should be at least at $500 before we can even began to talk about bubble.

I think the "bubbling" is not neccessarily the amount of price increase but what can be seen in the bid depth and the lack of capitulation moves and tested support levels. It is just nonstop buying (hence 'overbought') and way up in the bollinger band.

my thinking as well. i don't buy this "price has to be n times the previous bubble top to mention it" thinking.

[smoothie]

It's because all the bears are buying back in...

[Nemo1024]

Buying back in now is a pretty risky/stupid move. You might end up like this guy:



The smart squirrels are waiting for the bulls and bears to finish shaking the nut bush so as to pick up the fallen nuts.

[mp420]

We're at the levels where I sold last time. I still think BTC is grossly overvalued and we're on the way down from the April bubble peak.

what are your thoughts for key support levels?

No idea. I think on a market like this they can be identified only after the fact.

[Xiaoma]

That's because there is hardly any bubble this time. Last time it $10 to $260 in relatively short time period. Price should be at least at $500 before we can even began to talk about bubble.

I think this is not true...

We had a jump $140 to $200 in about 24 hours, and then another jump again $200 to $260 (and back to $60) in another 24 hours. It was definitely much slower in the weeks and months before that. Now we moved $155 to $195 in about 24 hours, that is definitely not normal growth. The only moments bitcoin had this growth EVER was during the bubbles. (excluding dead cat bounce after a massive crash)

If you compare side by side the April bubble with the current one, you can clearly see where we are. This speed of growth $140 to $200 is pretty much the same as the part of the previous bubble from $60 to $120. What happened next was a mad jump doubling again $120 to $240 in . If this is any similar we can see price skyrocket to over $300 or $350 in the next couple days, then badly crash, probably to $100 or so.

I suppose, if price is rising $200 to $250 in more than a week or so, then we are almost safe, and the bubble may touch $500 as you say, but that is when it burst, not when we "begin to talk about bubble", as we are just in the middle of one.

[wasserman99]

Buying back in now is a pretty risky/stupid move.

agreed. still upside risk to be sure, but if you waited until now...... i wouldn't.

[windjc]

That's because there is hardly any bubble this time. Last time it $10 to $260 in relatively short time period. Price should be at least at $500 before we can even began to talk about bubble.

I think this is not true...

We had a jump $140 to $200 in about 24 hours, and then another jump again $200 to $260 (and back to $60) in another 24 hours. It was definitely much slower in the weeks and months before that. Now we moved $155 to $195 in about 24 hours, that is definitely not normal growth. The only moments bitcoin had this growth EVER was during the bubbles. (excluding dead cat bounce after a massive crash)

If you compare side by side the April bubble with the current one, you can clearly see where we are. This speed of growth $140 to $200 is pretty much the same as the part of the previous bubble from $60 to $120. What happened next was a mad jump doubling again $120 to $240 in . If this is any similar we can see price skyrocket to over $300 or $350 in the next couple days, then badly crash, probably to $100 or so.

I suppose, if price is rising $200 to $250 in more than a week or so, then we are almost safe, and the bubble may touch $500 as you say, but that is when it burst, not when we "begin to talk about bubble", as we are just in the middle of one.

The only problem with this theory is that it is shared by many. And when a recent bubble is so clear in the investor and trader communities psyche, I wouldn't assume patterns will develop in such a predictable manner.

I suspect when the smoke clears this rally will not be compared to April 2013, at least in a way that is meaningful.

[matt608]

It is a bubble but its being led by the chinese and its only just beginning.

[MAbtc]

It is a bubble but its being led by the chinese and its only just beginning.

I'd like to think so. I'm still all in. But what makes you say "it's only just beginning"? Chinese market is much harder to read.

[matt608]

It is a bubble but its being led by the chinese and its only just beginning.

I'd like to think so. I'm still all in. But what makes you say "it's only just beginning"? Chinese market is much harder to read.

Well, it would be odd if this bubble was smaller than the last seeing as there are far more people involved in bitcoin this time and its closer to 'going mainstream' than before, it just seems obvious that the next bubble, if thats what this is, will be much bigger than the last, and seeing as we are still $60 or so below the last ATH I'd say its just beginning.  And I'd say its a bubble because of the parabolic rise, and due to the rise being triggered by news (small Baidu division) that will barely effect the 'underlying bitcoin economy' at all.  Also now that gox has been upgraded and shouldn't crash and we have a stronger set of btc/fiat exchanges, and good news on the way such as buttercoin, I'd say we are just getting started.  Expecting $300 by the end of next week, after that, who knows, but I'm watching BTCchina. I expect they will take us up to 2000cny which is $320, that could be top or maybe they'll take it way higher?  Who knows.

[MAbtc]

It is a bubble but its being led by the chinese and its only just beginning.

I'd like to think so. I'm still all in. But what makes you say "it's only just beginning"? Chinese market is much harder to read.

Well, it would be odd if this bubble was smaller than the last seeing as there are far more people involved in bitcoin this time and its closer to 'going mainstream' than before, it just seems obvious that the next bubble, if thats what this is, will be much bigger than the last, and seeing as we are still $60 or so below the last ATH I'd say its just beginning.  And I'd say its a bubble because of the parabolic rise, and due to the rise being triggered by news (small Baidu division) that will barely effect the 'underlying bitcoin economy' at all.  Also now that gox has been upgraded and shouldn't crash and we have a stronger set of btc/fiat exchanges, and good news on the way such as buttercoin, I'd say we are just getting started.  Expecting $300 by the end of next week, after that, who knows, but I'm watching BTCchina. I expect they will take us up to 2000cny which is $320, that could be top or maybe they'll take it way higher?  Who knows.

"far more people" -- Numbers? We are six months later, only. How is it closer to going mainstream? How much closer? Why is it obvious that this bubble will be "much bigger than the last"? I'm not convinced that a) the April run-up is an entirely separate event from this run-up, and b) that this rally necessarily must be n times the all-time high. Especially the latter point.

[matt608]

It is a bubble but its being led by the chinese and its only just beginning.

I'd like to think so. I'm still all in. But what makes you say "it's only just beginning"? Chinese market is much harder to read.

Well, it would be odd if this bubble was smaller than the last seeing as there are far more people involved in bitcoin this time and its closer to 'going mainstream' than before, it just seems obvious that the next bubble, if thats what this is, will be much bigger than the last, and seeing as we are still $60 or so below the last ATH I'd say its just beginning.  And I'd say its a bubble because of the parabolic rise, and due to the rise being triggered by news (small Baidu division) that will barely effect the 'underlying bitcoin economy' at all.  Also now that gox has been upgraded and shouldn't crash and we have a stronger set of btc/fiat exchanges, and good news on the way such as buttercoin, I'd say we are just getting started.  Expecting $300 by the end of next week, after that, who knows, but I'm watching BTCchina. I expect they will take us up to 2000cny which is $320, that could be top or maybe they'll take it way higher?  Who knows.

"far more people" -- Numbers? We are six months later, only. How is it closer to going mainstream? How much closer? Why is it obvious that this bubble will be "much bigger than the last"? I'm not convinced that a) the April run-up is an entirely separate event from this run-up, and b) that this rally necessarily must be n times the all-time high. Especially the latter point.

Ok, a few reasons, China wasn't a big player in the previous bubble, but now its booming:

Btcchina is not the only exchange in china (from reddit http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1ozilp/two_things_you_should_know_about_the_volume_of/
)

"in fact here are some examples for today:

*btcchina 56,272.00 *huobi 12,916 *btctrade 11,852.32 *okcoin 11,367.01 *btc100 5,929.73 *fxbtc 2,642.48
Some of the sites may be manipulating numbers, but they are roughly OK.
However, they are all doing free trading right now, because of the fierce competition. That should be part of the reason why the volume is so high."


Other massive bullish news:

Bitcoin meets Google Glass with in-store payment app GlassPay
http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-meets-google-glass-store-payment-app-glasspay/

Also bitcoin has gained a lot of legitimacy since the last bubble, and silk road going down may allow previously unsure investors to invest: http://www.newstatesman.com/business/2013/10/bitcoin-may-be-let-loose-now-silk-road-has-been-shut-down

This and with buttercoin on the way, and loads of positive news streaming in such as Bitcoin being added to the Dutch dictionary, give the whole thing much more power to go up in price!