Bitcoin Forum

You think we'll ever see $150/coin again?

Nope.

i'd say like 65% chance, and dropping fast...

What goes up shall come down. How low will it go, it depends on how many coins we'll see dumped all at once.

In that case I'm screwed.

It seems rather unlikely we'll never see it again, because BTC seems to retrace fairly often, but maybe the bubble counted as its retracement.

In general BTC has trended through every given price at least twice in the upward direction.

Possible, but I wouldn't bet on it.

We're in a bubble. When it pops, it gets us to 150.

I think so, and I'm betting on it by holding some fiat on the sideline waiting, ready to pounce.

Well, what do I know? Having said that, I think there is a good chance, > 50% definitely. Though, that could change relatively quickly based on what happens over the next few days.

Not necessary, depends when the bubble pops. With every day, falling under 150 is bit less likely

It might go to $150 briefly. So what? It's going much higher. Besides $150 was a great price a few short weeks ago. Have some perspective. Pull up a 4-year log chart and a glass of your favorite libation, and chill out. These price moves are peasly compared to what's coming.

So I want to buy then. I have a ton of fiat heading to Bitstamp to get ready for that day.

I hope your fiat gets there in time. I'm guessing 70% chance we never see $150 ever again. You might have to buy in twice as high. Matters not, either way your ticket to this ride is secured.

It is Bitcoin, it goes up and it goes down. Most people are in it for the speculation, so there will be a point they will start to sell. It was the same in june, when the majority was saying we would never see double digits again. It's only 20k coins to 150, so not a lot of bid support as well.

I won't be surprised when it plummets below $150 like it did during the first bubble in April of this year. It's done it before, it can do it again.

but the April rise was damn fast. this one is creepy slow

i remember beeing on a fair, looking at my phone seeing "oh, it broke 200. meh why i did not invest..."
and only some hours later, after lots of free food and drinks, looked again and saw "wtf? it crashed??"

Perhaps it will hit 150 again.  But the longer term prospects are it will eventually go higher.

If we won't go $400+ we will IMO revisit $150 on Gox.

Where your fiat was one week ago? $150 might never come again.
So close!

My fiat, was, precisely one week ago, in my bank account, waiting to be debited by COINBASE UNTIL THEY CANCELED MY ORDER DUE TO "HIGH RISK"!

>.>

<,<

Depends how high this "bubble" goes. If you're asking, it is more likely you will be dumping rather than buying when we hit $150 again  ::)

Very likely we will see 150 again, no need to panic buy now. Just wait

I don't dump. Sometimes I sell like 1 or 2 coins to try to turn a quick profit for fun, but I never 'dump'. :D

I think if this rally continues these days without a break, it is more likely to drop hard when we are near the $266 mark. Some people will cash out then, that's for sure - the question is if others start to panic or not.

If BTC takes a breath and moves sideways some days before $266, it would be more likely that we never see 150 again, because this would generate more confidence in the actual price level. But actually it seems we are heading straight up to 250-260 (the April ATH is only 15 % away!), so a correction is more likely.

You must be high all the time huh Adam?

Gotta love Canadians!

Nah... last time when it got close to ATH ($32) there were major sell offs but the waves of bids kept coming and BOOM! we hit $40 in no time.

Are you serious? Do you know why they flagged you as "high risk" It was ironic I purchased some coin from coinbase when it was around 140 last week. it was pending and literally right before their time was up, the coins were credited..  I actually thought canceling my order would have made good business sense for them, since its almost double. I, too was really afraid of some sort of "issue"..

It would be interesting to know what they would consider high risk.. especially since you have your bank account attached, etc... I wonder how many other sub 150 buys were "canceled"? Im just fortunate that mine went thru just fine.. Now I wish I didnt have that 10 coin limit, plus I couldnt purchase more because it was my first purchase, so they make you wait until its complete. Sounds pretty fishy.

WHY are people buying from Coinbase when they have such low limits and a 30 day waiting period AND a high 1% fee?

Just wire $$ to Bitstamp and buy whatever you want within 24 hours. Come on people! :)

Because many of us are Tier II so our limits are higher and the buying is instant and 1% is less than the international wire transfer fee on our purchases.

Can US citizens use Carvirtex? Its even lower than Bitstamp

Why are you tier II?  1% is less than the international wire transfer. I guess if its really small amounts that would make sense.

A wire transfer costs $25. That's not including the 0.6% Bitstamp fee on the trade. Coinbase charges 1% + $0.15 for the ACH transfer, and it's instant.

I also don't want my money in Bitstamp. The 24 hour delay means I have to have money in there waiting for a buy opportunity.

In this moment just dumping 4k btc would give us 150 on bitstamp, there is no volume...

I would still be happy if it dropped to 150$. But i did rather like it to hit 400 and stablelize there. ;)

Just made a friendly $50 bet with a mate. Decided to do an over/under on BTC/USD price on 01/JAN/2015 00:00:00

He set the line at $180 and I snap accepted the over. Easiest $50 ever? Or no?  :P

I guess you could best one 1BTC. Chances of your win are pretty high.

Super easy $50. The price will be in the 2k range...

It'll hit $270-$280 then drop around $100 before settling again

I got the impression (translation: I shall pull the following out of my arse) that 150 is perhaps the new 100 -- the point at which a substantial part of market thinks that anything below is "cheap coins". 100 provided support several times in the past months, or maybe more accurately: price never remained below 100 for long (except for the final leg of the May/June downtrend). I believe we've left this price segment behind us, i.e. double digits are, major changes in the fundamentals non withstanding, a thing of the past. So the bottom moved up. To somewhere around 150, would be my best bet.

Just to safely stay out of the masses sure to bid at $150, I've decided I'm going to put in my buys at $156 (on Bitstamp).

Which seems to have a significantly larger chance of happening again, as of today.

I'd put my buying orders around $175. If it goes lower than that it will most likely recover soon. You can put some cheeky bids around $150 to see if someone tries a big dump, just in case.

$175 is too high for me to have enough dollars to achieve my target amount of BTC, though. :'(

Odd, I worry about my bank canceling my accounts due to transfers to Bitcoin exchanges, not the other way around. Not that you owe an explanation, but do you have a clue why they considered you hight risk?

I would bet yes, we will revisit $150. I think extreme volatility (up and down) is something we should be expecting. But the trend is clearly up, and that's all that matters to me. Volatility is a gift to buy in on dips. I guess traders try to play it both ways (and the big ones try to push it both ways).

Put a buy order (or many) wherever you want. Worst that can happen is it doesn't execute.

You will have to balance your targets and the probability that you reach them...

Such is life.

I had a small bid fill at $153 last night on BTC-E. That was nice.  :D

IDK, so far my theory with BTC is "If you don't like the current price of Bitcoin, wait and it'll probably get there."

So far its worked reasonably well.

A very good dumping time? Not... ;D

I just looked at a graph of the past month, and that gave more perspective. It's not like we've been above 150 for very long...

High chance, it can even go down to $100 just don't catch a falling dagger :)

yep, can cut your hand, cut your hand off or get stuck in your foot  ;D

The market is less volatile than it was, now that the market cap is higher. 
I think some major news would be needed to move us back to $100, otherwise the bounces will be back down to $170 or so (IMO)

currently 175, so yes. I think it'll go down to 120 at least

I don't think that it needs any news, people have a time and price preference. If they see how their investment looses value over a couple of days, they jump off the boat automatically.

BTCChina is back above $200. Count me as surprised the last little tumble didn't make it to $150 on any of the major exchanges.

time to go 300+

Why do people want to try and call at a bottom?   Kinda sucks if you have a BUY 100 BTC @ $150.00 and the lowest tick before heading skyward is $151.23.

If you want a position just use multiple price points.
BUY 20 @ $170.00
BUY 20 @ $165.00
BUY 20 @ $160.00
BUY 20 @ $155.00
BUY 20 @ $150.00

+1. That's how I got some coins at several prices down to 125.1 EUR (lowest was 125.0). Of course my cheaper orders weren't met but I least I got a good position.

Usually I don't do "BUY 20 @ $155.00", "BUY 20 @ $150.00" but "BUY $2000 @ $155.00", "BUY $2000 @ 150.00". This means I get more coins at cheaper prices, thus obtaining a better average price.

0.00000000000000000000000000000000000001

chance!

Greed is why.  Everyone wants to make the maximum theoretical $$, and precisely catch the low without being off by a penny.  lol

I would hope and expect that everyone has limit orders something like this (I tend to make the BTC amount greater at lower prices).

I personally use weird numbers like 

BUY 10 @ $170.33
BUY 20 @ $165.87
BUY 40 @ $160.52

Because I believe most uses round numbers, so bit over round numbers can be filled while round numbers need not

Really? Want to bet with those odds?

Seems to make sense to me.  After all, the lower the drop, the lower the risk of further downside.  Lower risk = you can invest more.

Ya I would think $170.0005 or something would be better than $170.  Else your bid is less likely to be filled if it bottoms out there and you're just part of a larger bid wall.

$150? ....dunno it could happen.

But less than $100...i highly doubt.  :D

Agreed. I use numbers like 171.11111

I think we will see $150 because it is very hard to keep the bitcoin high forever, sooner or later i think we might see a at least a momentary drop in price, maybe it last very few hours or minutes, but it can happen, just think about whales or other events, like if the FBI sell all the bitcoins they have (although I doubt that they will do it soon)

That actually is a better way to do it.  If the price goes lower your average price declines and as suggested up thread use "weird" numbers to avoid becoming part of a wall.

So putting it all together rather than try to predict the bottom:  BUY $2,000 @ $150.00

stagger bids around your predicted price range:
BUY $400 of BTC @ $171.23
BUY $400 of BTC @ $165.09
BUY $400 of BTC @ $160.87
BUY $400 of BTC @ $156.44
BUY $400 of BTC @ $151.01

Used same strategy when I used to trade.

I don't trade much anymore. But it is good to place orders a bit above support levels and a bit below resistance levels, generally.

I got coins down to 125.1 because that's precisely the "weird" number I'm using, <round number> plus 0.1 or 0.15 sometimes (or minus 0.1 when selling). Works good enough for me.

I think this is the last days we're seeing below $200. Hopefully never again!

Assume that the expected value of a bitcoin is $200. And assume that if bitcoin never reaches $150 is because bitcoin keeps growing until it replaces fiat and that it's then worth $4M. Probability of never reaching $150 then is approximatly:
p=200/4M*100%.

I once did this and it drop to $70...

And then it went up to $200 and you made a ton of money :D

Wow, I'm long Bitcoin, but I really thought that last dip would go lower… I'm blown away by the price strength, I may need to adjust my ladder of limit orders quite a bit higher.

There is a breach in the dam. The water is discovering the new lower gravitational potential region just outside. Does the dam stay full? (yeah, bad analogy regarding price action but f it it's cool, exponential adoption biatches!)

Yes, after china profit taking and everyone started to panic........ But the chances are lower after what happen to silkroad....

With so few btc for sale between 230 and 300 I think we may be moving from triple digits to quadruple digits faster than from double to triple

Hope not.

I expect we will see $100 again within 6 months.

$50 if panic sells happen....

Phht.  People that don't understand logarithmic scales...

This +1

In case this is not clear.. it won't go down.. it's on a steady, steady rise.. although there may be fluctuations along the way.. the overall and long term trend is up up up steadily.. in a logarithmic sort of a way.

High chances, just need to wait for awhile....

no! now someone is gonna post that meme with the dead guy waiting at his computer...

many poor souls that missed the bottom here. Told you don't sell your Bitcoins ...

I still view single digits as a possibility, and a reasonable price to be around $20 to $40. Of course, it is also possible that the bottom has really moved up, just like how we never saw $1 again after the 2011 bubble.

Yeah but it will spike back again because of the surge of waiting buyers.

Bears got shot down. not much to say about it. If you think single digits is still a posibility, you are delusional.

the problem here is everyone has now seen it go from ATH to 50 ish and almost back, 32 to 2? ish and back....its sort of becoming oh well I purchased at ATH, and its going to 1K, 10K 100K whatever so who cares at this point, buying now is still good.

Then there is everybody waiting to pounce on $150, and imagine the buy as $100 or sub that now.....its sorta setting a floor, but it was just 2 - 3 months ago it was $75 - $85 if memory serves....

Agreed however not that long ago people were holding out for single digits as ridiculous as that was so even the bears are moving the goal posts down the field.

When its down accumulation when its up above your original entry value sell the remainder :)

Very likely, the price volatility is very high, so very likely

Can happen tommorow as well if bears mass sell

The swings are big, but probably not that big.

The price of the bitcoins will decrease soon in my opinion, but not any further than about +/- $200. I think many people will buy more bitcoins when they hit that 'magical round price'. As the demand will heavily increase then, I see the price of bitcoins increase too from that moment. And, I think it will hit the same peak as it's going to do now or in a few days. After that it will decrease a bit, to increase even over the peak we are reaching yet.

But that's just my opinion ;)

Same here  ;D

Bitcoin never seizes to amaze me.

I'm not saying it won't go down.  I'm just saying that with the number of people "playing" at this point, less than $150 seems very unlikely unless bitcoin is dead.  Numbers like $100 and $50 are NEVER going to happen again unless bitcoin dies.  There's just no way to support it.

This isn't Apple or Google stock that's already at the end of the adoption curve.  This is the beginning of the adoption curve.  It will either be adopted (leading to a minimum of $1000+) or flame out (going the way of NetBeanz).  Nothing in between.

If bitcoin EVER gets below $200 again, I will buy a lot of them.

You sound way too confident here.

You might be proven right but your estimation of the probability is way off since it is only half the current price (little more). That is - always - possible in bitcoin, with reasonable probability simply because it has happened many times in the past, even when bitcoin was alive and well. :)  

And this is my point.  $266 in April (way too high to support) only took us down to about $60 when it crashed. 

Mt. Gox volume then was 1 million.

Mt. Gox volume now is 41 million, with another 51 million in China.

There are so many more people and so much more money in bitcoin now (and so many that are holding long) that the price simply cannot go that low anymore.  Math doesn't support it unless bitcoin is abandoned and dies.  Maybe, at the lowest, it could go to $150 again, but I repeat that you are going to see either:

$1000

or

$0

but not a rebound from double digits.  That won't happen again just like single digits or cents has never been seen again.

Go ahead and quote this post and save it for the day that we hit $99 and throw it in my face.  I'll be glad to be wrong and will buy a ton of bitcoins that day.

It's possible when the current level is wildly above the adoption curve.  This $250 is a much stronger $250 than the $266 in April.  And the $120 last month was desperately low compared to the curve.  And then a billion Chinese people got on board.

What adoption curve do you mean?

I've never seen this curve that was low compared to $120 last month. Please draw me that line  ;D

I get the impression you are just making stuff up here on the go though.  ::)

Therefore, and therefore only, I still prefer Bitchick! ;)

Just don't forget this is all a commodity market, this recent uptick in price says nothing in regards to increased merchant adoption, increased transactions, etc.  So while this pricing level is supported, the only thing supporting it is the excitement of all the new folks piling on.  There are a lot of people who are buying at > $200 who will be pretty miffed if a walrus drops a bunch of coin and they lose the sparkle in their eye for the epic rise of BTC.  Same thing happened in April, huge excitement and then people were digging graves for BTC a few weeks after they hopped on board.  Now we're here again with no apparent reason short of excitement.  And excitement always gets corrected.

Or to be more specific, excitement is awesome for the folks who are holding, but for many there is a point where the financial reality outweighs the "moon" potential and the desire to cash out sinks in.  Net result is either whales get larger or new buyers "luck out" and "buy in cheap".  Reality is that after a while folks aren't going to want to purchase mBTC amounts because the cost of ownership or adoption is too high without any real benefit, i.e., there isn't much you can buy with BTC and everyone out there still pegs BTC against an actual fiat value for any physical purchase, so the BTC price will always be an "exchange" value for what the real price is.  So in that case, why jump on board for your $260USD/1BTC with exchange and transfer values attached if you could instead take your $260 and go directly to *any* store to make a purchase? 

BTC has not proven itself as a currency, and like previous boom/bust cycles there is a theoretical wall for adoption because there are only so many people who will "buy in" to the market.  The alternative, sadly, is we see a massive consolidation of BTC into very few hands, leading to the same problems we see in the current global economy.  And then people move on so that the whales can have a whale party and everyone else finds something not corrupted by the influx of massive amounts of fiat and the dreams being sold.

Bubble pop takes us to 2x the previous ATH:

$1 -> $32 -> $2
$32 -> $266 -> $60
$266 -> ?

Finally, someone who understands logarithms.

FTFY

+1

This would be more complete:
$1 -> $32 -> $2   (x32)
$32 -> $266 -> $60   (x8)
$266 -> $  ?   -> $520  

Take off 2 much smaller (x8) as take off 1 (x32). Will take off 3 also be much smaller than take off 2, or is take off 2 just not complete yet?

That would give:
$1 -> $32 -> $2   (times 32)
$32 -> $ ? -> $60   (times ? )

$60 still possible after going to $500?

60$ after 500$ probably not, but 60$ after 272$ is possible.
Right now, a 50k BTC dump would take the price down to 140$, and that would be just phase 1.

:)

(That doesn't mean that I think this Math prooves anything, there are too much variables in this game to answer it with a simple math equation ^^)

why pick 32 as the beginning?  picking 7 (pirate dump bottom) or 10 (Nov bottom before the unbroken increase) makes much more sense.

EDIT: ah ok, he's picking the prior ATH as the beginning.  Interesting but doesn't really capture the full bull market phase

next high will be $550

in january

Those BTC10,000 walls on MtGox are now down to 3,000. And we're still at $258.

But at MtGox any price is good to buy the BTC and withdraw these out  :)

Misquoting others is not fair play. You have won my Ignore, please reciprocate.

Alright, Mr Wavebear who didn't get the joke, I know what 90% of your posts say anyway.
They say "Bitcoin will crash hard" and some subsubsubsubsub-wave nonsense.


No misquote here:

LOL at the "drop is imminent"

Dropped $300 in a few hours, will probably see $140 price later today. Sell now while you can, don't be last person and take a loss.

Oh my god, you are writing this in almost every topic ;D you are trying so hard...what is your nickname on trollbox on btc-e?  ;D

Short of a completely unexpected fatal flaw in Bitcoin, we'll never see $150 again.

Doubtful

we'll never see below 400?

Chances of seeing $150 again are near zero unfortunatelly

Well, I got some coins at $175. Which is looking pretty good as for now.,

Yea I was one of the people expecting a drop back below $150, but ever since it passed $250 I've pretty much written that off. I think that we're probably hitting $1000 soon, and not sure we're going back after that. Bitcoin has entered the mainstream consciousness, the least tech savvy of people I've talked to in the last two weeks have all heard of it and know someone who's in it like us. To the moon!

I sure hope so.  I'd love to buy back in, but it just seems too pricey right now.

Someday this thread might be Chances of 1000 again

If it drops that low from where it is now.. That may not be a good thing...

Na just a new high and low range
We did see that wonderful crash from 260 to 80 only a few months ago
Using similar scale 800 275 seems plausible maybe not 150 though

Nope

Think 400 is now the new floor...

But if we did get to 150 again, I will jump to buy more if I can

Actually, thats quite possible.

400 ma be 150 not a chance

I think $760 is the new floor.

This, I was fortunate enough that I sold some at 840ish just incase yesterday and was able to buy back again at 760ish.

More likely you would analyze first WTF is happening. It is not easy mentally to buy in huge crash market

There is good probability of that because of coming of The Great Crash.

no its not all a commodity market, it already has the use that you can send 150 Mill worth from A to B for free, almost anywhere it the world, at will no restrictions, I'm not sure of any bank that can do that , or any other financial institution. So put all the banking systems, IT, real estate, security, etc together and give me 1% of their value and that would be way over BTC 10 Billion MKT cap

im gonna say 350-400 is the floor.. BTC is a lot more stable now than it was in april, and even then it only crashed to about $80 after starting out at $12 or so.

Never live in the past.   What does your heart tell you TODAY?

And here I thought someone was reviving this thread to laugh, not agree with it...

Hopefully it's obvious now that we're never going back to $150...

Pretty amazing that this thread started just over a month ago (and Bitcoin was at $150 just six weeks ago), yet already $150 Bitcoin seems impossibly low.

it could drop 16x so back to $60, as it went from $32 to $2

It could, but that was in a different era.  Adoption is far superior to where it was back then.  Extremely unlikely today. 

This post was made in the past ~.~

Back when I made this post it was like $200, not $1000!

but still possible: what could happen if, let's say btcchina gets hacked?

Yes, but this would require about 200k coins to be dumped into Gox, and a lot more into the whole market.
The 32$ to 2$ bear market took several months. It seems unlikely to happen again. But a drop to 300$-ish is plausible.

No I do not think we can see $150 and less again.  I'm NOT SURE but there are odds < 0.000000001% ( almost ZERO ) than I'm wrong.

The FBI is going to drop all their coins on gox.

That's illegal until after they have complied with all due process requirements with regards to this individual and their prosecution of him.  In other words, possibly, but that will be years from now. 

let's not talk about what can happen, because that is "anything and everything." let's talk about what's more likely..

it likely will not drop below $400 at this point... at least in my opinion.

You confuse "adoption" with "exuberance"
...and what do you know about that "era"?  ::)
You weren't here yet.



Arbitrary number, pulled from ass

The recent runup has changed my view a bit. I no longer view a drop to single digits as possible (unless the Bitcoin protocol is compromised). Double digits is still likely when the rally runs out of steam. The marketplace hasn't really changed at all from the last time we were at $100.

^ Even dropping is double digits will be extremely hard. By now, there are too many investors and believers in bitcoin. The more it drops, the more people will just buy it up to hoard more for the rebound.

Bitcoin will drop hard because it'is just a speculative bubble. It won't be money. For a comparison, look at Second Life. There was a media buzz around new virtual worlds such as Second life. The speed of its decline has been monumental. I am sure that someone will invent a new way to make easy money and this will be the new buzz on the Internet...

Noone will eat caviar because it's just fish eggs. It won't be food. For a comparison, look at dog crap. Nobody eats dog crap.

See, my argument making is just as strong as yours if not stronger! And you really need to read a little about why caviar is tastier than dog crap.

not gonna happens, instead we will hit 10k in one years or less at max.

Not gonna happen IMO.
We'll probably see another dip at 1000$ ... seems like a psychological barrier.
But it's straight up from there ... the limit? who knows...

I'm holding for now.

The more I watch this, the more I think there is no bubble.

$10k is down right impossible. Everyone would cash out at that price. Even I would cash out my minuscule long term BTC holdings (a few dozen coins) at that point.

Yea and then China dumps its bonds and you get screwed.

at $100, people would have said "$1,000 is downright impossible. everyone would cash out at that price."

lo and behold, we have hit $1,000 and apparently not every has cashed out.

This. Never say "Everyone would" because it is not true, obviously. When the price will be at $9,000, jumping to $10,000 is nice, but not necessary point where most cash out  :)

i think in investing and everything else in life, you have to admit that there's a lot more that you don't know than what you do. it's not just about humility, but it's more about.. the futility in everything. i tend to usually be a centrist and don't like extremism.

I don't have anything to say except I wanted to quote this post for future reference.   ;D

Read back at earlier $1000,- topics. Think about the people that bought at $0.05 and what they would have made at $10,-

Go

Think of this: The most common amount of BTC on an address is (exactly) 50BTC.

Of course when I said "everyone" I didn't really mean everyone. Not those who bought in at $9k. But they would just get screwed.

Besides, if the adoption raises in proportion to the price rise, at $10k we'll certainly hit the block size limit. It's going to be interesting, to say the least.

These figure look dated from July and at that time

http://bitcoinrichlist.com/charts/bitcoin-distribution-by-address

1) there were 11.4 M addresses
2) 94 %  had a TOTAL of 37 coins. These are effectively dead
3) We only probably need to count the top 7 catagories of ownership in the table or 3.2% of wallets that own 99% of bitcoins
The number of these wallets which is roughly the same as individuals who own 1 coin or more is ONLY 250,000

4) Now estimate how many persons with money (middle class and above) in the World suddenly get to know about bitcoin and buy JUST 1 Coin as a talking point or how many in China alone want to speculate or use it for Baidu ( 13M upper middle class 500M middle class) never mind yet the serious players who may buy 100 or more.

5) those numbers alone ensure the continued price increase of Bitcoin UNLESS there is an ultra bad publicity such as China or USA banning it.

The price target of $100,000 IS POSSIBLE and one TREND graph suggests its 2016 but this graph shows we are AHEAD of the trend which means a pullback to $274- $300 around December 2013/Jan 2014 before rising again to $470 in March and $1000 by August 2014.

https://i.imgur.com/GOYWUMo.png

Is this likely to be correct?  who knows but its a typical technical chart analysis.

What could send us down to $274 given the current China interest?

Here's a few scenarios.

- Solar flare or cyber attack knocks out internet
- China or USA ban (temporarily)
- Large Chinese dealer or Mt gox/ Bitstamp folds up owing 10's of Millions (most probable scenario in my opinion)
- China and USA start war mongering over the Japanese/ Chinese disputed Islands
- Meltdown of financial markets run to PHYSICAL assets (gold silver)
- Governments start to introduce their own Crypto outlawing completely private Crypto's

There are others but those immediately come to mind.

NOT going to $150 again except for ability to purchase a few coins (within the next 12 months) in a worst case scenario in the MEDIUM term ( 5yrs)

i would bet all my money on BTC not going back to $150 again. but then again, if it did go below $150, that wouldn't be that much money  ;)

FTFY

i don't think so. but around 250 - 300 is likely, if we have a crash again.
After a new all time high, bitcoin's history tells us that we will likely go back down to the last all time high, and trade around that point for a few months.

FTFY

OK, keep your $150 buy order if you like.  I'm SURE it will get filled someday...   ::)

SLIM

I agree with this, but its just to risky to sell because BTC could not do this as well. So even if it goes down we can just wait

$150 no way, maybe crash to $500, but if not soon then crash to $800 max

So  eerily it was Mt Gox that has given momentum to the price  retracement and I now look toward buying back at around $274 after liquidating  at $1100 .   Time Guesstimate is within 4 weeks max.