Chances of $150 again

[sealberrder]

not gonna happens, instead we will hit 10k in one years or less at max.

$10k is down right impossible. Everyone would cash out at that price. Even I would cash out my minuscule long term BTC holdings (a few dozen coins) at that point.

at $100, people would have said "$1,000 is downright impossible. everyone would cash out at that price."

lo and behold, we have hit $1,000 and apparently not every has cashed out.

This. Never say "Everyone would" because it is not true, obviously. When the price will be at $9,000, jumping to $10,000 is nice, but not necessary point where most cash out 

[beetcoin]

not gonna happens, instead we will hit 10k in one years or less at max.

$10k is down right impossible. Everyone would cash out at that price. Even I would cash out my minuscule long term BTC holdings (a few dozen coins) at that point.

at $100, people would have said "$1,000 is downright impossible. everyone would cash out at that price."

lo and behold, we have hit $1,000 and apparently not every has cashed out.

This. Never say "Everyone would" because it is not true, obviously. When the price will be at $9,000, jumping to $10,000 is nice, but not necessary point where most cash out  

i think in investing and everything else in life, you have to admit that there's a lot more that you don't know than what you do. it's not just about humility, but it's more about.. the futility in everything. i tend to usually be a centrist and don't like extremism.

[Nolo]

$10k is down right impossible. Everyone would cash out at that price. Even I would cash out my minuscule long term BTC holdings (a few dozen coins) at that point.

I don't have anything to say except I wanted to quote this post for future reference.   

[Lewis2]

not gonna happens, instead we will hit 10k in one years or less at max.

$10k is down right impossible. Everyone would cash out at that price. Even I would cash out my minuscule long term BTC holdings (a few dozen coins) at that point.

Read back at earlier $1000,- topics. Think about the people that bought at $0.05 and what they would have made at $10,-

Go

[mp420]

Think of this: The most common amount of BTC on an address is (exactly) 50BTC.

Of course when I said "everyone" I didn't really mean everyone. Not those who bought in at $9k. But they would just get screwed.

Besides, if the adoption raises in proportion to the price rise, at $10k we'll certainly hit the block size limit. It's going to be interesting, to say the least.

[qwerty555]

These figure look dated from July and at that time

http://bitcoinrichlist.com/charts/bitcoin-distribution-by-address

1) there were 11.4 M addresses
2) 94 %  had a TOTAL of 37 coins. These are effectively dead
3) We only probably need to count the top 7 catagories of ownership in the table or 3.2% of wallets that own 99% of bitcoins
The number of these wallets which is roughly the same as individuals who own 1 coin or more is ONLY 250,000

4) Now estimate how many persons with money (middle class and above) in the World suddenly get to know about bitcoin and buy JUST 1 Coin as a talking point or how many in China alone want to speculate or use it for Baidu ( 13M upper middle class 500M middle class) never mind yet the serious players who may buy 100 or more.

5) those numbers alone ensure the continued price increase of Bitcoin UNLESS there is an ultra bad publicity such as China or USA banning it.

The price target of $100,000 IS POSSIBLE and one TREND graph suggests its 2016 but this graph shows we are AHEAD of the trend which means a pullback to $274- $300 around December 2013/Jan 2014 before rising again to $470 in March and $1000 by August 2014.

https://i.imgur.com/GOYWUMo.png

Is this likely to be correct?  who knows but its a typical technical chart analysis.

What could send us down to $274 given the current China interest?

Here's a few scenarios.

- Solar flare or cyber attack knocks out internet
- China or USA ban (temporarily)
- Large Chinese dealer or Mt gox/ Bitstamp folds up owing 10's of Millions (most probable scenario in my opinion)
- China and USA start war mongering over the Japanese/ Chinese disputed Islands
- Meltdown of financial markets run to PHYSICAL assets (gold silver)
- Governments start to introduce their own Crypto outlawing completely private Crypto's

There are others but those immediately come to mind.

NOT going to $150 again except for ability to purchase a few coins (within the next 12 months) in a worst case scenario in the MEDIUM term ( 5yrs)

[beetcoin]

i would bet all my money on BTC not going back to $150 again. but then again, if it did go below $150, that wouldn't be that much money 

[Bitsurprise]

IMO there are 99% chance that we will drop under $150 again , takes time though mark my words , that being said i dont know from where it will drop ...

[BitchicksHusband]

IMO there is a 0% chance that we will drop under $150 again

FTFY

[kokjo]

i don't think so. but around 250 - 300 is likely, if we have a crash again.
After a new all time high, bitcoin's history tells us that we will likely go back down to the last all time high, and trade around that point for a few months.

[Bitsurprise]

+1

FTFY

[BitchicksHusband]

OK, keep your $150 buy order if you like.  I'm SURE it will get filled someday...   

[PrymeTyme]

SLIM

[jubalix]

i don't think so. but around 250 - 300 is likely, if we have a crash again.
After a new all time high, bitcoin's history tells us that we will likely go back down to the last all time high, and trade around that point for a few months.

I agree with this, but its just to risky to sell because BTC could not do this as well. So even if it goes down we can just wait

[zuerdemon]

$150 no way, maybe crash to $500, but if not soon then crash to $800 max

[Gordonium]

[qwerty555]

These figure look dated from July and at that time

http://bitcoinrichlist.com/charts/bitcoin-distribution-by-address

1) there were 11.4 M addresses
2) 94 %  had a TOTAL of 37 coins. These are effectively dead
3) We only probably need to count the top 7 catagories of ownership in the table or 3.2% of wallets that own 99% of bitcoins
The number of these wallets which is roughly the same as individuals who own 1 coin or more is ONLY 250,000

4) Now estimate how many persons with money (middle class and above) in the World suddenly get to know about bitcoin and buy JUST 1 Coin as a talking point or how many in China alone want to speculate or use it for Baidu ( 13M upper middle class 500M middle class) never mind yet the serious players who may buy 100 or more.

5) those numbers alone ensure the continued price increase of Bitcoin UNLESS there is an ultra bad publicity such as China or USA banning it.

The price target of $100,000 IS POSSIBLE and one TREND graph suggests its 2016 but this graph shows we are AHEAD of the trend which means a pullback to $274- $300 around December 2013/Jan 2014 before rising again to $470 in March and $1000 by August 2014.

https://i.imgur.com/GOYWUMo.png

Is this likely to be correct?  who knows but its a typical technical chart analysis.

What could send us down to $274 given the current China interest?

Here's a few scenarios.

- Solar flare or cyber attack knocks out internet
- China or USA ban (temporarily)
- Large Chinese dealer or Mt gox/ Bitstamp folds up owing 10's of Millions (most probable scenario in my opinion)
- China and USA start war mongering over the Japanese/ Chinese disputed Islands
- Meltdown of financial markets run to PHYSICAL assets (gold silver)
- Governments start to introduce their own Crypto outlawing completely private Crypto's

There are others but those immediately come to mind.

NOT going to $150 again except for ability to purchase a few coins (within the next 12 months) in a worst case scenario in the MEDIUM term ( 5yrs)

So  eerily it was Mt Gox that has given momentum to the price  retracement and I now look toward buying back at around $274 after liquidating  at $1100 .   Time Guesstimate is within 4 weeks max.