Bitcoin Forum

Do you guys think this is a start of another bubble or will it be a lasting upward trend?

Yes.

it will go down this has happened before

it has a ways to go up before crashing hard  :)

we may see 150 again, maybe 100 (less likely), but also possible we dont go below 200 again once this rally has made some more headway

It is going to be quite turbulent for years to come. Hang on.

Of course

There have been two major bubbles so far.

The first one was in June 2011. The price rose by a factor of about 40 in two months before it fell back to about 3 times where it started.

The second one was in April 2013. The price rose by a factor of about 20 in two months before it fell back to about 4 times where it started.

The latest rise started about one month ago and has risen only by a factor of 2. If this is a bubble like the previous two, then I expect the price to rise to $2500 - $5000 over the next month and then crash back down to $375 - $500.

I hope it goes up like this, but in reality it wont. It will go straight back down and climb its way to a sweet spot. Then it will stay there for a few months.

you sold all your bitcoins for $7000 ?

I think i saw you posted something like selling ur btc worth $7000 and I think that time it was only around $200/btc ?

there's no way this is a bubble... :)


if you'll say a roller coast... maybe... yes... it goes up and down....

but when u say bubble... it goes big and when it explode it becomes "NOTHING"...

and looking at difficulty of 510 MILLION... THAT IS NO FUCKING WAY TO BE A BUBBLE...

What about China? Is that not the reason why the price has been climbing?

I guess this bubble will pop at $300.

From 120 to 300 and you call this a bubble? Wake me up at $1,200.

just reached 300, probably will pop, hopefully not

If I had to guess I'd say it's going to last, but who knows?

As they say on Wall St. "It's only a bubble if you're not long."

Such fast increase is not sustainable for long. This bubble will pop soon I believe, a lot of profits to be made by some

New floor at $150

I'm a bit late on the bitcoin bandwagon..
I bought just one coin at 250$, just to get some experience. Would it be worth buying any more at its current price of ~310$, for some more profits.
Its either going to pop or go to 500+
What do people think, am I too late?

No one can known when the bubble pop. You may as well convert 250$ back and still be left with some part of a bitcoin  :)

Look at a log plot of bitcoin price here. Bitcoin has had log-linear growth since its inception. This is the entire price history:

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg1460ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzl

What I am suggesting is this behavior is actually a long overdue correction from the last bubble (which was in fact a smaller deviation from standard log linear behavior than the big $11 bubble in 2011). The price today is quite in line with the expected value, following the log linear trend.

If this is the start of a bubble, it'll pop higher than 300.  And even if it does, who cares - I am pretty sure the upside isn't over yet, and the past shows a dead straight 10x (1000%) growth each year.  

I doubt that.

Here's a physical exercise:
1) Go down to your local crowded area (a mall, downtown, park, whatever) with a clipboard.
2) Ask 100 random people if they have heard of Bitcoin.
3) If they have heard of it, ask them if they own any.
4) Calculate the percentage of people that have heard of Bitcoin and the percentage of people that own Bitcoin.

Unless you live in Germany, I doubt you will find more than 1 person who has heard of Bitcoin, much less owns any.

Here's a thought exercise:
There will never be more than 21,000,000 BTC. 
There are 7,000,000,000 people on the planet.
If everyone on the planet had an even share of all the Bitcoin, each person would have .003 BTC.  You have over 300x that.
There can never be more than 21,000,000 people that own 1 BTC.  That is less than 0.3% of the planet.

TL;DR
You are very early.

It's a bubble that will never, ever pop.

It might be a bubble, but don't expect it to crash low. I'd say we'll never see below $200.

Redeye1

it's gonna take some balls but you should wait

mid 250s is what you likely are waiting for

bubble

Something inside of me hopes this guy is right to some degree: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=326967.20

However if I had a Namecoin (or Devcoin) for everytime I've heard 'big dump imminent' the past weeks when the BTC reached $150, I'd be a Bitcoin millionaire.

I'll just leave this here:
http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3043/2867609321_7a821a4099.jpg

This is crazy. MTGOX gives BTC at $318 right now!  :o

All this is a big bubble thanks to the news with the note of someone becoming rich with old bitcoins he bought and some people want to buy bitcoins as think they can get rich like him, but in the coming days the bubble pops and the price comes down.

Nope.  It'll keep rising.  But if I were you, just buy xyz/week that sort of thing until you can get the feel for when its a truly good time to buy. 

Researchers Say 'Bitcoin Is Broken' And Could Collapse

Below you can find the articles:
http://www.seattlepi.com/technology/businessinsider/article/Researchers-Say-Bitcoin-Is-Broken-And-Could-4955201.php
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/11/131104112234.htm

Nobody can tell you for sure when a bubble pops.
If someone really would know this for sure, he'd probably keep it secret for taking all the opportunities of making profits alone.

I would say it is a bubble in the sense that the appliance of bitcoins in society (which I think is a decent long term measurement of the real value) does not comply with the recent rise

It may not match the recent rise in adoption, but it could be anticipating the future rise. That's one of the things that makes predicting a bubble so difficult.

Current hash difficulty mining will support BTC prices, already mining is making a loss no matter what HW you got if hash str is gonna continue to go up at 30% each time.

Bubbles always pop, people never learn and when panic sell offs come, many will sell for less than they bought. Never ending story...

This is the third bubble on the S&P500 too why is that not a problem?

https://www.google.com/finance?q=INDEXSP%3A.INX&ei=_g58Usi9N4qFwAPMSA

Click "ALL"

What if I told you that I got it for free by betting and signature.

I expect the price to hit around 450 before dropping back down to 120ish

I'm sure it'll explode in the next few days. ;)

How can one answer a choice question with an "yes"?  :D

A bubble is "trade in high volumes at prices that are considerably at variance with intrinsic values". So it's meaningless to argue about whether Bitcoin is a bubble without first estimating its intrinsic value.

If you are certain that Bitcoin will never gain significant traction in any of its target markets, then its intrinsic value is very low, and it's a bubble at almost any price. However, if you believe that it has a good chance of becoming a major player in any major financial arena, then it is almost certainly undervalued at its current price.

For example, consider Bitcoin as an alternative to credit cards for low profit margin industries. Grocery stores typically have a 2% profit margin and pay 3% in credit card fees. If they can convince their customers to pay with bitcoins, perhaps by offering a 1% discount, they could double their profit margins. Of course, we need better hardware wallets and point-of-sale terminals, both of which are in the works. And the current volatility complicates things. But the possibility of doubling profit margins provides a strong incentive to find solutions.

Consider countries like Argentina, with 25% inflation and frequent currency collapses. Some people there are already using Bitcoin for their savings, and as long as their government continues to abuse their currency, that number will certainly grow.

Consider all the countries that would like to unseat the U.S. dollar as the world's reserve currency. Consider various blocs of smaller countries that are having trouble competing internationally, each with its own weak currency. Imagine all the Arab nations, or a group of African nations, or South American nations, deciding to adopt Bitcoin as their common currency, much as the European nations adopted the Euro. As Bitcoin matures and the U.S. dollar crisis deepens, this becomes an increasingly viable possibility.

Consider those wanting to send a portion of their paycheck back home to poor relatives, but not wanting to pay the high fees of today's systems.

Bitcoin is better than the existing money in many ways, and I believe its eventual adoption is inevitable. For that to happen, the price must go up. Many people have done their homework, reached the same conclusion, and that's why the price keeps rising.

There is perhaps a bit of pressure on the market now.  The prices may be a little (perhapps $100 over?) on the high side, for today, as my analyses have told me.  But I still won't sell them, I still will only buy them.

Because I do not care if bitcoin falls tomorrow to 200.  That would be awesome actually, because then I could buy even more.  

Bitcoin gains around 1000% a year and has done so like clockwork for 4 years.  It is the most intensely gainful investment you can make.  Just sit back and enjoy the ride.  If you buy coins today, there will come a day in the not so distant future that you will be glad you did so.

My suggestion is take the same amount of USD per week or whatever you like ..  as long as you can afford to play with that money, buy bitcoins and keep them the hell offline.  It will not take long for you to realize the short term crap, hype, and speculative instability is not of your concern.  You don't even have to wait too long to watch bitcoin develop into a new realm of pricing.  It may swing a whole lot, and make you unformfortable.  But the plot of the log of the price is linear for 4 years.  Just relax.  The market is so young - there is a lot of upside still.

No Bubble!
The party just begin.
But I have more faith in the future of LTC than Bitcoin!

No Bubble, but it's gonna be a bumpy ride.
BTC will have its dramatic moves, but overall the only way to go is up!

Important now is that business needs to develop more and more applications for BTC, so keep your eyes on news that comes from sites like Ebay and Baidu, golden would be that facebook follows this. Giving every facebook person a wallet (anonymous or not, not everybody cares about it), and then making them do online purchases with it! At least that's what they want to develop a "facebook" wallet.

cfr. http://venturebeat.com/2012/06/25/facebook-payments-apple-google-paypal/

That could do the trick to get a huge lift-off again for BTC

But we'll see what the future brings, just make sure you've got your seatbelt on!

 ;D

Well don't. LTC is useless.

How could such rapid price growth not to be a bubble, I have high confidence the bubble pop and we will see under 200 this month

price is slightly going down already. good thing, I need to buy some more coins :)

-$70.94
-20.79%
The price change for today.

A bubble is "trade in high volumes at prices that are considerably at variance with intrinsic values."  You can have extremely high price growth without being a bubble as long as the price does not greatly exceed its intrinsic value.

The problem is that it's hard to estimate the intrinsic value because it's hard to predict what will happen in the future.  Will some governments adopt bitcoin as their national currency?  Will some governments outlaw it?  Will the media give more negative or positive coverage?  What happens when Mt.Gox gets shut down?  Will the media start ignoring bitcoin altogether, causing people to lose interest?

For those who believe that bitcoin will certainly fail, it's in a bubble at any non-zero price.  For those who believe it might become the global store or wealth, then it can appreciate by 100X overnight and still not be in a bubble.  For example, if a block or Arab or African nations announced tomorrow that they are all adopting Bitcoin as their national currency, much as the European nations adopted the Euro, the price could go to $100,000 overnight, and it would not be a bubble.

So asking if it's in a bubble is really a meaningless question.  You want to be asking where the speculative traders are likely to take the price in the short term.

I see two possibilities.  We're currently experiencing the second highest level of Google interest ever, at about 70% of the April interest.  Increased interest means an influx of new investors.  Second Market has made it much easier for big players to invest (Rich people don't have to invest time learning about wallets, etc.), so some of these investors might invest large sums of money.  There might be a huge demand in China.  All of these things could drive things much higher very quickly.

On the other hand, it takes time for investors to become comfortable with higher prices.  After the price goes way up way fast, people get nervous, and bitcoin usually has a flash crash, then settles somewhat lower than the peak.  As a general rule, the faster the run up, the deeper the crash, and the longer it needs to settle before running up again.

The fact that the recent crash didn't go down far suggests to me that we are probably in for a continuation of the run up.  Perhaps starting this evening when China wakes up, or perhaps Tuesday, after the banks wake up after the U.S. banking holiday.

So it could go either way.  The best bet is to buy and hold.

http://i42.tinypic.com/24w6hxs.jpg

Hubble

http://i42.tinypic.com/ngesu1.jpg

Bubble

http://i42.tinypic.com/w0l6h1.jpg

Toil and trouble

Hubble Bubble?  :D

the fact that we're still right around 300 is a good sign IMO

Expect the unexpected with bitcoin - if it falls really low, buy...if it goes really high...haha...I like to hold. I'm pretty much putting all my disable income into bitcoin. 

I am currently only holding bitcoin =)  year to date return is something like 300%

$326.98
Daily Change:
-14.25
-4.17%

It has improved over the day.

The price recovered pretty quick today, maybe not bubble afterall, but steady adoption instead.

I've been thinking the same. Someone has dumped and we have recovered within the same day.

It keeps on going up. $415 on Bitstamp right now!

This cartoon is the simplest visual representation of what and how a bubble builds and bursts.  Bubbles are nothing more than herd mentality.

If I could send a message to every single Bitcoin holder in the world if would be this.  Hold on to your Bitcoins.  Even if you "hear" the market is going on a down turn.  The secret lies in the power of the people holding Bitcoins.  By all means if you want the price of Bitcoin to plummet then go ahead and dump your holdings when the fear factor brigade shows up with pitch forks and torches.  Then they will be the ones scooping up your hard earned Bitcoins for pennies on the dollar and riding the wave back to the top.

Hold....hold....hold....and last but not least....HOLD.

it's about time the bubble pops...

Yes, I believe that this price trend can not sustain for long.. It might go to 500 before going down to 300. Just speculation though... no data or proof to back my claim. Trade at your own risk!  ;D

When I recently saw BTC cross the old April peak of around 266 I was pretty sure it had a way to go higher before crashing.  My reasoning is as follows.  In April when BTC hit 266 and crashed it had only been trading above 200 for like 2-3 days.  The price was just going crazy.  When we recently crossed 266 we had been trading above 200 for like two weeks.  We did not merely tap the 200's like April.  This time the price rose more slowly and approached 200 and retreated a few times before breaking through.  Now we are trading above 400 and making new record highs every few days.  At some point (probably after a big day with $60-$100 up move) this will end for awhile with a crash but I don't think it will crash down to fifty dollars like in April.   

You do realize that the price is pretty much holding steady around $400 for days now, and you're waiting for the "bubble" to pop?
That's not the definition of a bubble.

A bubble can last for years, so we could be in a bubble up to $10,000 and then it pops

OMG, but looks like reasonable :D

Few days stable price means nothing. We will know it was a bubble only after crash :)

Last bubble --> price crashed in 1 day.
So this is not a bubble, stop talking nonsense and get your facts straight.

What is Bubble ? Is this some kind of game or you refer bubble for bitcoins ? I really didnt understand your point of view.

There you go: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_bubble .

https://www.gldtalk.org/devteam/bubble.png

Did someone say bubble?

It's a strong rally that will eventually correct downward, probably quite abruptly. I'm not sure I like the term "bubble" at this point in the rally's cycle -- not yet. We need faster growth for that. I'm not sure what to think -- but I am starting to think $500 or slightly more may be the mid-term top.

I'm going to take your questions very seriously here.  No, you are not too late to become wealthy beyond your wildest expectations through the use of bitcoin.  But because you started late, it'll require a lot of patience on your part.  Patience and belief.  Don't fuckin sell the coins.  Just make sure that # keeps growing.

I recall the moment when I said to myself "holy shit, I have a lot of money in bitcoin right now."  It's a sweet rush and I hope you attain that height.  Golden rule.  Keep the damn coins.

I would love $500 bitcoins right now.

The Tao of Bitcoin

As more people learn of Bitcoin, many of them buy, and the price goes up.

Sometimes people get too excited, and it goes up too fast, too far.  A correction ensues, many of those newcomers sell in a panic, and it goes down too fast, too far.  The day traders thank those who bought high and sold low in a panic.

It always lands considerably higher than the starting point.  There is often then a short period of sideways movement at a level somewhat below the peak, and then the cycle starts again.

In fact, it might be starting all over again today.  Press mentions have been high recently, so money should be flowing in.  Expect things to really accelate a few days after the flurry of press as Bitcoin crosses $1000.

Sadly, while my crystal ball tells me there will be another run up, panic buying, a flash crash, panic selling, then some sideways movement, it does not tell me how high or how low.  If it could tell me that, it would be worth its weight in bitcoin.