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Author Topic: Bubble?  (Read 2585 times)
Altoidnerd
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November 07, 2013, 10:29:57 AM
 #21

Look at a log plot of bitcoin price here. Bitcoin has had log-linear growth since its inception. This is the entire price history:

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg1460ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzl

What I am suggesting is this behavior is actually a long overdue correction from the last bubble (which was in fact a smaller deviation from standard log linear behavior than the big $11 bubble in 2011). The price today is quite in line with the expected value, following the log linear trend.

If this is the start of a bubble, it'll pop higher than 300.  And even if it does, who cares - I am pretty sure the upside isn't over yet, and the past shows a dead straight 10x (1000%) growth each year.  

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hyperiond
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November 07, 2013, 02:01:29 PM
 #22

I'm a bit late on the bitcoin bandwagon..
I doubt that.

Here's a physical exercise:
1) Go down to your local crowded area (a mall, downtown, park, whatever) with a clipboard.
2) Ask 100 random people if they have heard of Bitcoin.
3) If they have heard of it, ask them if they own any.
4) Calculate the percentage of people that have heard of Bitcoin and the percentage of people that own Bitcoin.

Unless you live in Germany, I doubt you will find more than 1 person who has heard of Bitcoin, much less owns any.

Here's a thought exercise:
There will never be more than 21,000,000 BTC. 
There are 7,000,000,000 people on the planet.
If everyone on the planet had an even share of all the Bitcoin, each person would have .003 BTC.  You have over 300x that.
There can never be more than 21,000,000 people that own 1 BTC.  That is less than 0.3% of the planet.

TL;DR
You are very early.
b!z
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November 07, 2013, 02:13:24 PM
 #23

It's a bubble that will never, ever pop.
Pumpkin
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November 07, 2013, 02:15:22 PM
 #24

It might be a bubble, but don't expect it to crash low. I'd say we'll never see below $200.
Sindelar1938
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November 07, 2013, 02:55:03 PM
 #25

Redeye1

it's gonna take some balls but you should wait

mid 250s is what you likely are waiting for

ThomasH
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November 07, 2013, 03:15:30 PM
 #26

bubble
Enira
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November 07, 2013, 03:31:20 PM
 #27

Something inside of me hopes this guy is right to some degree: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=326967.20

However if I had a Namecoin (or Devcoin) for everytime I've heard 'big dump imminent' the past weeks when the BTC reached $150, I'd be a Bitcoin millionaire.

I'll just leave this here:
http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3043/2867609321_7a821a4099.jpg
botolo86
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November 07, 2013, 03:59:46 PM
 #28

This is crazy. MTGOX gives BTC at $318 right now!  Shocked
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November 07, 2013, 05:52:41 PM
 #29

All this is a big bubble thanks to the news with the note of someone becoming rich with old bitcoins he bought and some people want to buy bitcoins as think they can get rich like him, but in the coming days the bubble pops and the price comes down.
Altoidnerd
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November 07, 2013, 08:00:08 PM
 #30

I'm a bit late on the bitcoin bandwagon..
I bought just one coin at 250$, just to get some experience. Would it be worth buying any more at its current price of ~310$, for some more profits.
Its either going to pop or go to 500+
What do people think, am I too late?

Nope.  It'll keep rising.  But if I were you, just buy xyz/week that sort of thing until you can get the feel for when its a truly good time to buy. 


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mota966
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November 07, 2013, 08:13:19 PM
 #31

Researchers Say 'Bitcoin Is Broken' And Could Collapse

Below you can find the articles:
http://www.seattlepi.com/technology/businessinsider/article/Researchers-Say-Bitcoin-Is-Broken-And-Could-4955201.php
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/11/131104112234.htm
Ricke
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November 07, 2013, 08:18:59 PM
 #32

Nobody can tell you for sure when a bubble pops.
If someone really would know this for sure, he'd probably keep it secret for taking all the opportunities of making profits alone.

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corebob
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November 07, 2013, 08:20:25 PM
 #33

I would say it is a bubble in the sense that the appliance of bitcoins in society (which I think is a decent long term measurement of the real value) does not comply with the recent rise
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November 07, 2013, 09:41:05 PM
 #34

I would say it is a bubble in the sense that the appliance of bitcoins in society (which I think is a decent long term measurement of the real value) does not comply with the recent rise

It may not match the recent rise in adoption, but it could be anticipating the future rise. That's one of the things that makes predicting a bubble so difficult.

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November 07, 2013, 09:52:05 PM
 #35

Current hash difficulty mining will support BTC prices, already mining is making a loss no matter what HW you got if hash str is gonna continue to go up at 30% each time.
hermann1983
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November 07, 2013, 10:01:51 PM
 #36

It's a bubble that will never, ever pop.


Bubbles always pop, people never learn and when panic sell offs come, many will sell for less than they bought. Never ending story...
Gator-hex
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November 07, 2013, 10:08:28 PM
Last edit: November 07, 2013, 10:29:42 PM by Gator-hex
 #37

This is the third bubble on the S&P500 too why is that not a problem?

https://www.google.com/finance?q=INDEXSP%3A.INX&ei=_g58Usi9N4qFwAPMSA

Click "ALL"

nahtnam
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November 07, 2013, 10:09:57 PM
 #38

It's a bubble that will never, ever pop.


Bubbles always pop, people never learn and when panic sell offs come, many will sell for less than they bought. Never ending story...

What if I told you that I got it for free by betting and signature.

deadlyninja
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November 07, 2013, 10:26:18 PM
 #39

I expect the price to hit around 450 before dropping back down to 120ish
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November 07, 2013, 10:47:57 PM
 #40

I'm sure it'll explode in the next few days. Wink
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