Bitcoin Forum

With this recent spike, do you think BTC is going to crash?

http://s18.postimg.org/s9f3p9no7/Screenshot.png

It's going to dip. It currently can't break above $367-368, and the current trend is down.

I think it will start going up over the course of 2 weeks, however.

Order book buys are miniscule on Gox ATM. Volume in general is also down, both in BTC & USD.

Nonsense. Total bid is at $21mil. Few millions more than average last few weeks.

Oh man this next rally will be relentless if I see how many people think it's going down. Everyone who sold or is waiting at the sidelines for a dip will fall all over each other chasing the price way over $400. :D

If you haven't noticed last week. The price dipped at $300 from $350, so it's like a mini bubble burst. Don't know if panic or mania propaganda will work this time in manipulating. ;D

Yes. Order book goes down to $21 mil. at about $1. But trading volume is way down. As demand goes down, so will the prices. The spike saw $25 mil. in trade on Gox in one day. Now its about $6 mil. and a lot of that has been dumps.

I wouldn't hold a leveraged long position right now, but I'm holding. We haven't seen the end of this rally yet. I think we will approach $500, may not surpass it.

Actually no.. volume always goes down after a correction and the price starts consolidating before the next big move. It's called the calm before the storm or the eye of the hurricane. Most people don't know what to do and everyone's looking at each other, so that means volume will stay low until either some bulls or bears make the call and things quickly escalate from there. Since the trend was up before the correction and subsequent consolidation, the most likely outcome will be a rally from here. A crash is more likely to happen at the end of a big move upwards, it will usually come sudden and unexpected for most.

Ok, I can clearly see where we're headed now:

Up.

This will be an interesting week.

It doesn't look that bad to me.

http://blockchained.com/depth_mtgox.png

Actually -

I saw it happen.

It went from $395 to $307 at 8:10pm EDT Saturday night.  Almost instantly. 

It then jumped up to $348 right after that.

That was the correction. 

It has now recovered from the correction.

I'm talking about trading volume. It was about $25mil on Sat and Sun, and is now down to about $6. Average for Gox, I believe is about $3-4 mil, so demand is still likely to recede.

What I meant is that buys into the order book are tiny at the moment.



Is this not just a bull trap?

This. We are on a steady path to the moon.

Bitcoin will drop hard to the 100's$

Dude you're noobing so bad right here. Obviously gox volume is going to be lower, considering they screwed up the worst theyve been in months. Volume going down doesn't indicate demand going down, it indicates nobody using the exchange. As April indicated, volume going up can indicate a crash as well as a rally.

120-150 is my guess.

People don't understand the concept of profit-taking around here.

That's because people already tried taking a profit at $30 and look what good that did them. I'm following the Great wall of China, which is saying - up (after a little breather). But hey, who knows?

I believe that the current China-driven rally will surpass $500 before a dampened oscillation correction similar in shape to April 2013.

So predictions range from about $120 to $500.

It seems fairly certain that there will be a large down-trend through, even if it does break $400.

In case you didn't notice, there was a correction along the weekend that took a whooping 48 hours to recover from. Now go see the charts at 47$ back in march and tell me what you see.

A simple BTC charts tell me a breakout on Apr 2013 levels, which is projected at least double from Apr 2013 high. BTC/USD 500 could be a short term top with most conservative prediction. However breakouts frequently create parabolics which can be translated into four digits in BTC quite possible for the next 6 months or so. One thing people don't understand: BTC charts is unique, it can't be comparable to other charts such as forex charts or indices or even commodities. The difference is all the forex and indices (fiat based) instruments have unlimited supply. Everyone knows what is a stock dilution, when prices go parabolic in stocks or forex demand can be decreased by increased supply.

Now ask yourself: How can BTC supply increase when parabolic-demand occurs? Same analysis is true for crude oil and precious metals also. But BTC gives supply information more clearly than commodities. We know how many BTCs are available to trade. And other imporant point to remember is: BTC prices can't be controlled by paper contracts (gold and silver prices can be manipulated and controlled by paper, yeah futures and options contracts).

Bitcoin will not drop below 200, mining has to remain profitable.

Alessio Rastani: Why Bitcoin will crash to $30

http://www.londonlovesbusiness.com/business-in-london/investment/alessio-rastani-why-bitcoin-will-crash-to-30/6149.article

Chinese people need money in the coming Spring Festival, arguably the most important holidays in China, I believe most of them will start cashing out in December.

Will never happen unless bitcoin is a failed experiment.

Seems like he's preaching propaganda.

I still think April was so heavily related to the EU crisis and if speculators truthfully believed they wanted to get coins before people tried to buy coins for the purpose of sheltering their own savings from a bail in...obviously things calmed and a correction ensued.

This time around we have huge amounts of money invested by Bitcoin Trusts, more and more people have realized the bitcoin wasn't created so drug dealers could sell drugs online. The thing that pushes us forwards is more and more business adopting Bitcoin as payment. Even if one day bitcoin becomes the crypto "gold equivalent" and people spend Litecoin on a daily basis. This stiil achieves the idea that we can buy and sell with out having a fee built in by the banks. Essentially allowing us to do or make more with our wealth.

People don't understand the concept of logarithms around here.

It won't become a real currency when it swings +/-10% in the time it takes to confirm a transaction. Bitcoin is completely useless for commerce as long as it's having days like this, it's a purely speculative instrument, nothing else.

Everyone is entitled to thier opinion. But opinions are like assholes, everyone has one and they mostly stink.
Fair play to Alessio. But he obviously doesn't seem to understand the concept fully.
He repeatedly quotes from other sources who don't seem to understand the concept either. And generally has a pretty scathing/distrusting/traditional investor/old school (world) viewpoint on it. He hardly wrote this piece from an open minded viewpoint.
No, he picked all the ill informed propaganda spewing bitcoin related viewpoints he could and poured hi own cold water on the subject.
Interrestingly the article was written in August of this year. So.. so far he has been the opposite of correct.
I don't discount the posibility that hwat he is predicting could happen one day. It's just that based on my own research, and approaching the subject open mindedly, i completely disagree with him.

The chance that a micro bitcoin payment is made twice is so remote, that any commercial party will accept the payment merely by it being registered in the network. That happens literally in seconds.

At the current rate of drop in money flow, the correction could start in about an hour, maybe less.

It might correct to $355, before a gradual rise back to ATH and then a breakout. Like so:

https://i.imgur.com/uGDxHJL.png

You don't understand or you don't want to understand.

A currency has to be stable enough to be effective. Bitcoin is volatile and it's a bad thing for businesses who sell goods and services.

The volatility is doing a lot of harm to bitcoin adoption by vendors.

The transactions have dropped off significantly:
https://coinbase.com/charts

Do you care to explain to simple minded like me?  :P

thing is there has been and continues to be plenty of growth, the  market can absorb the  profit taking...

a good way to take some profits would be to take a trip to china and do lots of shopping  :D

You dont read or do not want to read.

My post only relates to the point of confirmation time. Nothing said about volatility. The volatility will vanish once more people adopt Bitcoin.

27 yoday btc is more then 37btc 2 month ago.

You really need to work on your timing. :P

I think I heard that yesterday was China's big online shopping day. Bigger than black Friday and cyber Monday put together. I wonder how many bought with bitcoin?

Timing depends on volume, and volume has dropped. Gox volume is very low.
And the market seems to needs more prelude, won't go down at first date.

Yeah whatever dude, keep spreading fairy tales. ::)