Bitcoin Forum

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101190181

The elite are using their media to pump up their one-world currency.

The dystopian outcome (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=331325.msg3561796#msg3561796) is well underway.

Bilderbergs are laughing at how gullible and stupid we are. Justifies viewing us as cows or produce for harvesting.

Title needs to be amended: Bitcoin could be worth 100x more than today...if you trust the Winklevii.



That's a pretty big "gotcha".

But before that they need to fall 2x so that I can buy my first ones.  ;D

Since it has demonstrably gone up 10× every year and even conservative people think $35,000 per bitcoin is doable, there's really not that much of a gotcha.  (The highest reasonable estimates are around $300,000 per bitcoin, which would mean it could be worth 1000× what it is today.)

Because hyped growth is always sustainable right? (http://www.buzzfeed.com/hunterschwarz/how-much-beanie-babies-were-predicted-to-be-worth-vs-how-muc)

Call me a pessimist but I have trouble believing that Bitcoin will continue this meteoric rise in value.

According to Winkle and Weener who have a huge amount anyway..

It's over all very optimistic.. but then again they're dropping millions into it because of said optimism

$100,000? wohoo, I will be millionaire if I have 10 BTC now!!

It's too much. Nobody will pay that amount for 1 coin. Not even 10,000 for 0.1 or 1000 for 0.01. It's insane.

1000-3000? Maybe...

We'll be talking about mBTC and satoshi long before then. In fact, we ought to start now - exchanges and chart sites, etc., over to you. :)

One step at a time

1000 sustainably helps build a beach head

I once remember people said that when Bitcoin were 1 cents each...

but what makes you the judge of how much people will pay for a bitcoin? as of today, no one would pay $100,000 for a bitcoin.. obviously. but that doesn't mean it won't change tomorrow or the year or decade after.

it may happen or it may not, especially if you consider how much the economy is reaching a tipping point and the current currency system will implode on itself.

Yes, I agree that "10000 is too much for one coin" argument is very weak. And flys in the face of all evidence to date. It is all about perceived present and future value. I have no certainty as to what we will think is fair value for a "coin" in 5 years. (I'm questimating at the moment $25,000/BTC in today's dollars.) What's FB worth? Or twitter? or Apple, or anything that used to be worth nothing and is now valued at astronomical prices? We will pay/exchange what we think it is worth - as always.

When btc was less than a cent, people thought it would never reach $1. When it was $1 they said that it would never pass $10 and so goes the story, everytime.

My question is, what keeps BTC from breaking the Us$400 threshold? I noticed it bumps up and down around that value

It could be worth 100x more one day. But there's no guarantee behind this. They're all just speculations  :-\

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Cyprus

The GDP of Cyprus is $23 billion.  If it switched from the Euro to Bitcoin and if it could magically get all 12 million Bitcoin that have ever been minted, each Bitcoin would be worth about $1900.

Of course they could not get all the Bitcoin that have already been minted.  Its likely that they would struggle to get even half of the Bitcoin in circulation.  So each Bitcoin would then be worth $3800.

Now that assumes that the Cypriots acquire the Bitcoin secretly.  If its done transparently, everyone else will be buying Bitcoin as well and we can assume that the price would at least triple.  So each Bitcoin would be worth $11,400.

Cyprus is a tiny bankrupt island that is half occupied by a foreign army.  If Bitcoin adoption in such a small place shoves the value up so much, its hard to reckon what a mainstream adoption would mean in a major economy.  An increase of 100 times is small beer.  We are sitting on the greatest investment vehicle ever minted.

I think I'll hold my coins until their ETF comes out.  That sounds like a lot of 401k and IRA money coming into bitcoin very quickly (including about 25% of my 401k and IRAs).

If they run off with everyone's money or the ETF drops off the exchange don't say I didn't warn you, seems like a fine way to syphon BTC off unsuspecting investors.

Yes that looks very feasible to achieve

I would be happy to see 1000$ for bitcoin, but even that is 2 much. The moment when it goes mainstream the value will drop.

Ohhhh how they tricked me into selling at $2 lol

This is how they will trick you to sell now, and then it hits $10,000.  :D

Why would the value drop if it goes mainstream?

That's wrong. It will fly up.

Because that is always how things with limited supply work.  </sarcasm>

 ;D

GDP is an annual number.  it has nothing to do with the net amount of value, or currency, in existence in Cyprus.  so, i think your logic is wrong.

But doesn't a country require that its currency covers at least its GDP?

I'd rather see some other country adopt Bitcoin than Cyprus.

shouldn't all net worth be covered by currency? i know the calculation you are trying to do, cause i'd like to do it also, but i'm not sure how.  i think the number should be higher than what you put forth though.

"The net worth of the United States and its economic sectors has remained relatively consistent over time. The total net worth of the United States remained between 4.5 and 6 times GDP from 1960 until the 2000s, when it rose as high as 6.64 times GDP in 2006, principally due to an increase in the net worth of US households in the midst of the United States housing bubble. The net worth of the United States sharply declined to 5.2 times GDP by the end of 2008 due to declines in the values of US corporate equities and real estate in the wake of the subprime mortgage crisis and the global financial crisis. Between 2008 and 2009, the net worth of US households had recovered from a low of 3.55 times GDP to 3.75 times GDP, while nonfinancial business fell from 1.37 times GDP to 1.22 times GDP.[7]"

The Winklevoss brothers have a vested interest as they hold large stocks of Bitcoin, previously quoted to be 1% of Bitcoins, and have opened a fund around it, and so they would be expected to be bullish on Bitcoin. Success in their fund and personal net worth depends on them convincing others to invest in their dream.  For them the sky is the limit, and a Bitcoin has potential to be worth $40,000 or more.  It would be surprising if they did not have this attitude.

Now ask a a banker being asked by a miner to underwrite a proposal to build a datacentre of equipment containing new HashFast Sierras. The lender may appear to be prudent in using the current value of Bitcoins and then quartering it or quadrupling it, say from $400 to $100, or $400 to $1,600, over a year to examine the project probable outcomes.

The reality in the long term is somewhere in the middle, where the price of Bitcoins is given as:

   PRICE = TRANSACTIONS VALUE + INVESTMENT VALUE

Examples of positive forces would be if Ebay or Amazon incorporated Bitcoin into their processing system, then the Transaction Value will be enormous.  By further example of a positive influence would be if the Chinese were to hold more Bitcoins than ounces of Gold as a store of savings, then the Investment Value would be be massive.

Against this is are politicians running governments feeling a need to take a stance against Bitcoins due to the advantage it offers for hiding the identities of perpetrators of blackmail, such as Bitcoin payment extorted to recover your files on computer.  There are also hackers waiting to take any means to steal other persons Bitcoins, such as the exploit on android phones they used to empty phone wallet.

No one can predict the future price of Bitcoins, however when listening to predictions try to discover the vested interest of the soothsayer.  Is it a dodgy manager at Butterfly Labs wanting you to upgrade rather than cancel your 12 month old pre-order who talks of Bitcoin in the thousands, or is it someone posting on this forum how wonderful and profitable their equipment may become if Bitcoin soars as hidden to members they are actually selling their uneconomical equipment on Ebay.

40 000$; seems possible.

Other than ALL governments filtering the protocol on the internet (which is very unlikely), the only thing that could potentially slowdown Bitcoin's meteoric rise in price at this stage is an altcoin that is better than Bitcoin. But it would take some time for that altcoin to reach enough market capitalization to have this effect.

Such an altcoin might immediately be appreciating faster than Bitcoin.

It would take years for one to overtake it.

If Bitcoin's price is rising 10X per year, and an altcoin is rising 100X per year, then starting from $1000 versus $0.01, the altcoin reaches price parity at 5 years.

A giant sucking sound of jealously.

However, before parity that 10X would slow down, so figure on the order of 3 years if this ratio applied. Who knows what the actual ratio would be. It depends on the impact of the relative feature sets.

In most cases, it could not happen. The feature set of the altcoin would have be undeniably superior beyond any reasonable doubt.

In 3 more years if unabated Bitcoin's market cap will be in the $trillions. At this point it will be a major percentage of global wealth.

So what is likely to abate Bitcoin's rate of appreciation is saturation of global wealth. Thus by 2016 we should see the mainstream financial system collapsing as I assume moving this much wealth out of it will cause contagion with the $quadrillion of (mostly credit-swaps on bonds) derivatives.

2016 has been the year that Armstrong's models predict the globe turns down into the worst global implosion (much worse than 2008).

Anyone would be fine with 1$ per Satoshi !

Mili and micro bitcoin too.

I don't think the Winklevoss twins want to go to jail anytime soon.  You can't just "run off" with an SEC registered fund without going to jail.

Rectify the title

i was going to say the same thing. i don't mean to be some conspiracy theorist, but if a guy owns large shares of gold and tells you to buy buy buy.. well, he's not doing out of the goodness in his heart. see glen beck: http://www.buzzfeed.com/dorsey/glenn-beck-boston-bombing-is-a-reason-to-buy-gold

or basically any other media financial adviser such as jim kramer: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BpLfOF4zZW0

A stock in Berkshire Hathaway Inc. is worth $172.000. Bitcoins could surpass that within a decade or so..

Or even in much less time.

Never :) cause Berkshire's stock might hit 1million when BTC hit 172,000$...

Here's hoping OP.

I think usd10000 per btc is a fairly inevitable long term outcome

But I cano longer trust my own objectivity  :D

If it more than possible when dollar will fall..

$10,000 seems like a reasonable number to sell at.

Never measure bitcoin in $.
$ is going to crash soon.

It's about time for an exchange in swiss francs. Automatic data exchange with IRS  ;D

It could also be worth zero if the Bitcoin Foundation decides to go ahead with redlisting certain coins as part of new regulations to appease the US Govt, and these 3rd party companies that monitor the blockchain for tainted coins arent helping either. Regulations cant help Bitcoin, it can and will only eventually kill it. If they want to stop crime thats great but thats not what they want, its just a foothold because they ultimately want total control over the coins and how and where you spend them. Total control means death to Bitcoin.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=333824.0

How I am really not sure how the price will settle, I sold almost all now ( yesterday ) and now im waiting for the price to drop and buy. I hope Monday will be the day, something tells me the price will drop to 300$. Even if the price raises I will still earn a lot. So atm I am happy :)

that is not necessarily true.. they could be pump and dumpers who buy into the system, go around advertising it, which leads to increased prices.. and then a large dump when they've made huge profits.

Real investors aren't amateur traders, hence they don't use amateur tactics.

I hate to tell you but, it is going up and up...

There might be a crash which would recover within a few hours or even less.

As the popularity of bitcoin increases, so will the scarcity. (especially since most people are just hoarding...)
Considering the fact that the bitcoin economy (trading of goods/services) is rather small, there's a lot of room for growth.

I always had the impression that bitcoin was popular for speculation, but an actual economy is still lagging behind. If bitcoin becomes mainstream, i wouldn't be surprised at all if the price went up by 100x.
But one thing i know for sure is that there needs to be an easier and quicker way to purchase bitcoins before the general public will use it.

I still remember a time when people said $450 was too much.

It all depends on the bitcoin prices and the abusers of bitcoin

We as a bitcoin community will never become a massive currency if we have drug dealers using bitcoin
But If it does go x100 then Im happy

Drug dealers will use ANY currency. But i do think it's very bad for bitcoin's image... As the anonimity of bitcoin makes things easy for them.

I would bet that Bershire's stock, when BTC is $172,000, is MUCH lower than BTC. The two will come to be inversely related as one is built on a corrupt system run by corporations and militaries and the other is a bit of the dismantling agent.

I don't think very many people understand how disruptive BTC is.

IAS

It is just a number, if there where 10 bitcoins, they would already be in the millions each, its just a number and its possible

I think $10,000 would be good for BTC. That gives BTC a market cap of 210 billion USD. Any higher and we're talking record market capitalization (over 40,000 to break it), which is unreasonable in the near future.

and it's reasonable in the distant future.  :P

Why not? It might hit 1 Trillion market cap just like that...

$100,000 and give them a 2 Trillion USD market cap :)

I think both are too high prices for one coin. And I also think dividing bitcoin will not catch. People want one bitcoin, not satoshis or mBTC. And a 'satoshi' is a serious denomination?

When banks are consfiscating money and further talking about doing it en mass, you just want protection from the criminals. A profit to boot is nice. And you are talking denomination.  ???

It sounds like you are simplifying BTC, don't understand it and are ignoring economics.
Start with this video and view the regulation nightmare one. http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=qHUPPYzzZrI&desktop_uri=%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DqHUPPYzzZrI (http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=qHUPPYzzZrI&desktop_uri=%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DqHUPPYzzZrI)

You have stumbled upon an ant-fragile disruptive protocall. And it is just crawling out of its cacoon.
Enjoy the show...

When bitcoin is worth 100x of today, the government would hire a bunch of FBI just to close down those Bitcoin company... This is one of the best way to go out of debts..

You make 1,000 to 3,000 sound like a slim possibility when you put it like that.  It might not be a guarantee, but it's really not that far off from where we are now.

I heard they BTC can increase the decimal if the creator choose to, meaning 1 mBTC can become  1BTC and 1 BTC become 1000 BTC... something like that...

They can just make it more divisible if that is the consensus. Right now there are 8 decimal places, giving 1BTC = 100,000,000 bits.
This way that can increase the divisibility (move the decimal place over) without stealing your wealth like banks do through inflation.

IAS

i would like that i find some coins like that i am forgot about them