Bitcoin Forum

Economy => Speculation => Topic started by: piramida on November 17, 2013, 11:00:18 AM



Title: Shrinking supply & way to get at old coins
Post by: piramida on November 17, 2013, 11:00:18 AM
A thought - with all weak hands sold off during the move from 100 to 500, there's a shortage of coins besides a few speculative ones rotating on exchanges & newly minted ones.

I'd imagine big players who would want into the game once it reaches 4 digits would need to incentivize current holders to sell. What do you think can be done here, to break into the big old stashes, if raising the value of one coin is not enough in itself?

I can see several possible attack scenarios. First of all, plant the notion that bitcoin is doomed - either by regulatory means or spreading high-level FUD, we've seen some early signs of that. Second, we would see more and more of luxury high-ticket items (islands, large yachts, planes) being sold directly for BTC. Third, there (probably already are) many organized hacker groups going after the current holders. Fourth, creating bitcoin "banks" - secure storage companies - to get some old coins from people who don't feel comfortable storing large amounts on paper, later bing nationalized / stolen.

Anything I've missed here? From what I understand, we're talking about more than 50% of all mined coins being cold and never traded atm, with a possibility to get reintroduced at random time and seriously disturb the markets, and that fuzzy situation would be considered a major risk factor by all serious holders, so it will be dealt with before any world-wide acceptance takes place.


Title: Re: Shrinking supply & way to get at old coins
Post by: N12 on November 17, 2013, 11:18:21 AM
You forgot scams.


Title: Re: Shrinking supply & way to get at old coins
Post by: piramida on November 17, 2013, 11:19:35 AM
You forgot scams.

Yeah but the owner of the coins need to really want to get up from the cold storage and move a portion to the scam artist, I wonder what could make him do that, imagining he's ok financially and don't have bills to pay.

Price is enough incentive.

For some people, yes, but even at the current levels, even selling 1k coins would allow you to more or less retire or at least take a job path that you like, so it won't incentivize you to spent the rest. Remember, those who still hold serious amounts of coins from single digits truly believe in the idea, no exceptions. I wonder what would move them to part with their precious :)


Title: Re: Shrinking supply & way to get at old coins
Post by: Spaceman_Spiff on November 17, 2013, 11:21:15 AM
Price is enough incentive.

I have not a lot of them but I will certainly sell them (not all at once) when it is really be "life changing" for me.
Unfortunalty it will not happen before 10/50k per coin...
+1


Title: Re: Shrinking supply & way to get at old coins
Post by: Cluster2k on November 17, 2013, 11:33:50 AM
Everyone has a price.  Everyone.  Mine is US$10k.  If bitcoins hit US$10k each I'll sell all of mine to all comers.  Until then I'll hoard and not spend a satoshi.


Title: Re: Shrinking supply & way to get at old coins
Post by: Zangelbert Bingledack on November 17, 2013, 03:01:25 PM
Everyone has a price, but to many it is priced in BTC ;D

As Erik Voorhees said, "I already cashed out." There's no reason to sell for dangerously confiscatable, freezable, capital controlable, untransportable, undeniable fiat or gold.


Title: Re: Shrinking supply & way to get at old coins
Post by: rebuilder on November 17, 2013, 03:21:43 PM
Price is enough incentive.

I have not a lot of them but I will certainly sell them (not all at once) when it is really be "life changing" for me.
Unfortunalty it will not happen before 10/50k per coin...



It's been "life changing" for the big holders meant here for a long time now. Clearly price alone isn't enough for some. And what would be the point of cashing out more than you might reasonably ever spend? So the people still holding on to tens of thousands of BTC are looking for something else, if they're looking at all. What that may be, probably depends on the individual.

Expect to see some pretty off-the-wall pet projects in the future...


Title: Re: Shrinking supply & way to get at old coins
Post by: Spaceman_Spiff on November 17, 2013, 03:27:37 PM
Expect to see some pretty off-the-wall pet projects in the future...
That's what I would do if I had plenty of money...


Title: Re: Shrinking supply & way to get at old coins
Post by: NUFCrichard on November 17, 2013, 04:10:14 PM
Everyone has a price.  Everyone.  Mine is US$10k.  If bitcoins hit US$10k each I'll sell all of mine to all comers.  Until then I'll hoard and not spend a satoshi.

This is why bitcoin is a commodity, not a currency. As a currency btc could be great, as a commodity I am not so sure.


Title: Re: Shrinking supply & way to get at old coins
Post by: Spaceman_Spiff on November 17, 2013, 04:17:03 PM
Everyone has a price.  Everyone.  Mine is US$10k.  If bitcoins hit US$10k each I'll sell all of mine to all comers.  Until then I'll hoard and not spend a satoshi.

This is why bitcoin is a commodity, not a currency. As a currency btc could be great, as a commodity I am not so sure.
explain yourself please


Title: Re: Shrinking supply & way to get at old coins
Post by: zeroday on November 17, 2013, 04:19:45 PM
Everyone has a price, but to many it is priced in BTC ;D

As Erik Voorhees said, "I already cashed out." There's no reason to sell for dangerously confiscatable, freezable, capital controlable, untransportable, undeniable fiat or gold.

^this


Title: Re: Shrinking supply & way to get at old coins
Post by: Zangelbert Bingledack on November 17, 2013, 07:24:03 PM
This is a landgrab. Bitcoin barons, lords of the manor, kings of their castles will not be selling off very much of their land for any price.


Title: Re: Shrinking supply & way to get at old coins
Post by: User705 on November 17, 2013, 07:58:15 PM
Everyone has a price, but to many it is priced in BTC ;D

As Erik Voorhees said, "I already cashed out." There's no reason to sell for dangerously confiscatable, freezable, capital controlable, untransportable, undeniable fiat or gold.
Sure but he and others will spend it.  Nicer house, nicer car, gifts to loved ones.


Title: Re: Shrinking supply & way to get at old coins
Post by: piramida on November 17, 2013, 08:00:45 PM
This is a landgrab. Bitcoin barons, lords of the manor, kings of their castles will not be selling off very much of their land for any price.

Yes that's my point, old coins don't move anywhere, only getrichquick noobs sell. However, currently society works in such a way, that no wealth make any sense without power - even incredibly wealthy people who are forced to move to a new country get stripped down pretty quickly, unless they manage to regain power - political or military. With bitcoins, there are emerging wealth hubs that have zero power behind them. This is an imbalance that will have to be solved somehow, or the system would turn over on it's head. I know this is the outcome we all want, however I believe the system has very much resilience and will put up a fight.

Do we need to form a new independent country, which runs on bitcoin, and has (outsources) it's own military? :) I know it's a bit far-fetched now, but one day this may actually become a serious question. How the bitcoin kings are going to protect their turf.


Title: Re: Shrinking supply & way to get at old coins
Post by: byronbb on November 17, 2013, 08:01:52 PM
A smart guy would get into the luxury goods business or start a supercar dealership and accept bitcoin. At this rate there is going to be a LOT of rich nerds out there.


Title: Re: Shrinking supply & way to get at old coins
Post by: mb300sd on November 17, 2013, 08:21:39 PM
Old age will probably be a motivator some day... Whats the point of having all the coins if you're not going to live to enjoy them?


Title: Re: Shrinking supply & way to get at old coins
Post by: theonewhowaskazu on November 17, 2013, 08:22:25 PM
Easiest way of getting old coins is to pump and dump an altcoin.


Title: Re: Shrinking supply & way to get at old coins
Post by: MaxBTC1 on November 17, 2013, 08:24:53 PM
Everyone has a price.  Everyone.  Mine is US$10k.  If bitcoins hit US$10k each I'll sell all of mine to all comers.  Until then I'll hoard and not spend a satoshi.

Thats a high price my friend by anyone's measure.  When do you think we will reach that?


Title: Re: Shrinking supply & way to get at old coins
Post by: notme on November 17, 2013, 09:19:37 PM
Everyone has a price.  Everyone.  Mine is US$10k.  If bitcoins hit US$10k each I'll sell all of mine to all comers.  Until then I'll hoard and not spend a satoshi.

Thats a high price my friend by anyone's measure.  When do you think we will reach that?

573 days


Title: Re: Shrinking supply & way to get at old coins
Post by: wobber on November 17, 2013, 09:42:09 PM
573 lol.


Title: Re: Shrinking supply & way to get at old coins
Post by: zachcope on November 17, 2013, 10:20:20 PM
Everyone has a price.  Everyone.  Mine is US$10k.  If bitcoins hit US$10k each I'll sell all of mine to all comers.  Until then I'll hoard and not spend a satoshi.

Thats a high price my friend by anyone's measure.  When do you think we will reach that?

10k usd at today's purchasing power?
That's too LOW to cash out imho!

If people 'hoard' coins if really does't matter. Bitcoins are divisible as needed to transfer money for goods and services across the world. Doesn't matter about coins not being used, unless satoshi decides to take a dump one day.


Title: Re: Shrinking supply & way to get at old coins
Post by: piramida on December 22, 2013, 06:33:54 PM
old coins don't move anywhere

Well yesterday alot of them did move! Can somebody figure out where to? :)


Title: Re: Shrinking supply & way to get at old coins
Post by: CoinCidental on December 22, 2013, 06:40:16 PM
old coins don't move anywhere

Well yesterday alot of them did move! Can somebody figure out where to? :)

that was probaly me reorganising my  wallets lol