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Bitcoin price jumped from 20 $ to 263 $,last lowest level was 75 $, so taking the same ratio, crash may happen at 986 USD/BTC.


After crash market came down to 48 USD/BTC, in the first bubble,so taking that in account, market would settle at 180 USD/BTC, after crash.

I am becoming more and more convinced that a crash won't happen anytime soon.

^^ A bear dismissing the possibility of a crash -> SELL SELL SELL

or buy buy buy!!

In case history is never repeated in finance,multiplying the Fibonacci ratio (Golden ratio = 1.618), the crash point becomes 1595 USD/BTC, and support after crash, increases to 291 USD/BTC.

Ah bitcoin, you never learn  ;)

We will crash. But it will be temporary.

I've started selling, but just enough to be liquid in the exchanges if a crash comes. If no crash comes it's a calculated loss and no big problem. The best bet IMHO is that this plays out more or less like the last two(+) bubbles.

Makes sence, I estimated price wont hit psychological barrier $1000
Now it is mathematically proved using linear extrapolations

The faster it is rising actually makes it MORE likely there will be a crash. Things that shoot up quickly can come down just as quickly.

People are getting nervous. Any bad news could cause them to panic and pull out and we'll see a spectacular crash like we've never seen before.

Smart money sells little by little on the way up and buys back in after the crash.

So you'll admit your wrong if it hits that in 2 days?  I mean, what did today start at...$600?  What's it at now? Hmmm...

Oh, it'll be spectacular. But we've absolutely seen it before.

If you'd taken the ratio of the 2011 crash, the 2013 spring crash should have bottomed out around 25 USD IIRC. It was pretty different from that, though. less severe but much sharper, with a much faster recovery too, than in 2011. In other words... past performance does not guarantee future results.

There is no one to DDoS Bitcoin this time or hack all the sites. The exchanges could not handle the load the last time. The only way Bitcoin will crash this time is if the Bitcoin network cannot handle the load.

I don't think the ratio is any way to call this one.

One thing you can count on though, when it starts to crash it will correct at least 50% of it's last major move.

When you see the crash start to happen, do a quick calculation of the 50% point.  Place your buy orders just above that point... then have nerves of steel and hold on tight.

There are 12 million Bitcoins.  How many Chinese have the cash savings, and now the desire, to own just one Bitcoin?

but, this time the bubble should break some new boundaries.

I don't think we'll see $180 again until/unless it's on the way to $0. When the current rally started I conservatively figured the top between $550 and $750, with a post-correction/crash low between $300 and $400. I was obviously wrong about that, too conservative an estimate. This rally seems to have been more orderly than what happened in March and April, depth looks good and there have been some healthy corrections along the way. There is a degree of mania of course, but the fundamentals are looking good.

Right now I'd agree with a top around $986, but I can't see us going below $400 from that level. If the top is higher then subsequent low will be higher too, in the order of 50% of the top. I wouldn't be surprised if the top is higher. The Gox-fail during April both triggered and exacerbated the (inevitable) correction, this time isn't completely different, but there are many differences. If this rally ends in the next week or two then we won't have to wait as long for the next one, perhaps three months.

Long term, bitcoin is going much higher, although I still think there's a good chance it will go to $0 within the next decade, there are just too many powerful vested interests that are threatened by decentralisation of any kind, particularly financial.

I will sell you my crystal ball for 1000 BTC :)

I think this needs be updated. We already had a correction from $900 and it recovered rapidly. Do you think another 10% increase to $986 will suddenly be the inflection point?

Thank you for this analysis.

Currently at 607 (btc-e) and it went to 823.A crash already of 26 % .

Check the Ultimate Oscillator


http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=bitstampUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=360&i=Weekly&c=0&s=&e=&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=&a1=SMA&m1=7&a2=EMA&m2=14&x=1&i1=UO&i2=MACD&i3=RSI&i4=CCI&v=1&cv=0&ps=0&l=1&p=0&

I wouldn't call that a crash.. It's just a fluctuation.

I'm holding. Lots of people want to sell out at a quick buck, and fair enough... but BTC is bound to keep climbing... What was the biggest threat to BTC (the US gov) has pretty much given the green light on it.

Ehh maybe it'll drop some more, but I think that's only because the smart money is slowly flooding into the exchanges... They'll be looking to buy up as many BTC as possible and hold, cause there's only one way this thing is going now long term... and that's up!

4 hr graph (BTC-e)

https://i.imgur.com/5MQet3w.gif


Next support at 387 USD/BTC level.

If the price some stabilizes around 1000 at-least for 6 months,it would give a new meaning to bitcoin and its acceptance.

Last prediction - support at 387 was on target 375 USD/BTC (BTC-e) with error of just 3.1 % .

Huge crash after BTC/USD has began downward trend after the continuous rise since (2 october 2013 @ 75 USD/BTC).

https://i.imgur.com/GxjOVQk.png


Next Fibonacci support @ 555 USD/BTC.Next 4 to 8 hours crucial for markets.The prediction will only be valid market stays below 857 level for next 4-8 hours.

This estimation was correct as the maximum price (@ BTC-e) went upto 1080 USD/BTC on 30 November 2013,which is within +/- 9.5 %  :)

Market fell upto 551 USD/BTC (BTC-e) . Precision of +/- 0.7 %

If 555 level is breached for 4-8 hrs then next Fibonacci support @ 295 to 305 USD/BTC.

Good resistance at 883.5 level till 12 December 2013.

If the price remains above 790.5 (BTC-e) for atleast 8-9 hours from now ,then price may jump to 951 level.

you recon we are nearing the end of a second bump before the ultimate drop?

Market seems to have recovered the loss which brought it to 551 level. The current volumes are, as positive as they were on 3 rd December,when rates were around 965 USD/BTC.

Why are we talking of the 'ultimate drop'? Have I missed something?

Didn't notice this thead until now. You made some pretty good calls, OP.

Good stuff, fairly accurate analysis. So I guess what we are seeing now is a recovery.

Today market entered into a positive phase, after going downward from 6 december 2013, when it was around 953 level.It may break 883.5 resistance level, to reach till the next resistance level of 950 USD/BTC.

Prediction made 2 days ago is exactly true now.

The market has now crossed 950-960 level.If the momentum persists for next 2 weeks, than market will easily climb to 1080 level.

Support will be at 814 level, during this time.

Market is seeing decline in positive volume.Current stability may end anytime now.

Downward movement may commence in next 2-3 days.

http://xchang.in/xcharts/blog/images/2.png

.

Good calls you made on this thread. How low and for how long do you believe the downward movement may go?

Hey Op, what program are you using for your analysis?  Are those Fibonacci indicators something you added, or are they already in the software?

Downward movement may continue till 553 level, if market keeps falling for next 6 days.

If it happens then bounce like previous crash would be difficult and will take more time.


All done manually on my experience,thinking to code automatic signal generation  soon.

What do you mean by "to 553 if market falls within next 6 days?"  I assume you are saying that if the market continues going down over the next 6 days we are headed towards 533?

If so, then what happens to that theory if we don't go down over the next 6 days?

Corrected my post. If that does n't happen, then market may regain stability, and could also achieve 950-960 level again. But its probability is very low.

Market volume is becoming bearish.If market breaks 750-760 support in next 4-5 hours,then will next support will be only at 553 level.

With more news coming out of China, we may see some of the 550 support evaporate, what's the lowest point you would set buy orders at?

I play it bounce by bounce. I suspect we may see 300s, eventually, but I have no orders at that level currently.

lowest will be in the $500, double of the previous ATH
going back up beginning of the year

spndr7 your predictions were again on the money. It has given those of us who are just investing with small amounts a great example of how to observe the markets.


In your opinion, how long will this crash last, and if possible, what time in the future do you believe the BTC value will begin another bounce or at least stabilize? 1 week? 2-3 weeks?

I am personally predicting fall to 500-550 level, from which, barring a great upset on part of governments and banks, it will relatively stabilize along that price range within 4 weeks at most with occasional minor bumps (holiday seasons, people cashing out, possibly many new people who got into this game at the bubble news (end of nov) beginning to invest cash after finally being verified/having time during the holidays).

However, it seems in coming weeks and months, government announcements and businesses reacting to bitcoin will be a major factor in market swings. I believe some deflationary pressure and regulatory force will keep the values lower, at least until cryptocurrency can be more or less co-opted into the financial system in a regulated and 'leashed' manner.

Your thoughts?

After 10th October 2013 (when the markets were at 124 ),for the first time the uptrend has reversed.If the market breaks 553-447 support band, within next 3 days from now, then it could fall to 212 USD/BTC level.

(previously 180 to 293 was roughly estimated by me at start of this thread)

I think I answered this in today's predictions.

World govt. are trying to control a thing which was  never created to be controled. Now as we see that, bitcoin has hit main stream media,they will try everything to discourage use of bitcoin and keep it low.The realization of bitcoin's worth, for governments, may take 2-3 years.

Right. I do believe crypto has a place in the world finances and economic one way or another. Now that you said what you said, it might not take more than a year :)

Someone posited an interesting theory that US government and PRC government are engaged in a continuous campaign of control over the market, with arrest of DPR and seizure of his bitcoin fortunes as the opening salvo. Who knows?

Also, my question was specifically about the amount of TIME it would take for this to stabilize at the point you referred to, and also your 'possible' prediction on when you think it may begin to rise against steadily (or another bubble). Maybe that's reaching too far, but we would definitely appreciate your input.

Thanks again for this thread. Speculation is not a simply practice for many, and they easily allow fear to cloud their vision.

Anyone else think the fees on BTC China are a big contributing factor to the fall?  No more free bot trades inflating volume...it's probably a very good thing long term, but definitely seems like it's helping curb China's insatiable appetite for BTC lately, the volume is dropping rapidly on those exchanges.

Slowly crashing down to possibly 300-400 level. I will make the call on 340.

Last two days saw huge movement in the markets. But as given earlier, the bearish movement could not break the support band of 553 to 447, for a long time. For only 1.5 hours, it was below 447 level  (went to 420 level), but quickly bounced back above 447.

The bounce back shows great confidence in bitcoin.If the price remains above 645 level,then market can reach to 750-760 level, in next 52 hours.

are you analyzing btc-e? why do that when it just follows gox and btcchina?

Yes just analyzing BTC-e.



It does n't matter, as long as predictions are precise and accuracy is good.

After 13 dec 2013 (when market was at 895 level),the down-trend seems to reverse any-time now.

The rise will easily achieve 746 level.

...spoke too soon? It just started to go down to 610. Unless, you were referring to how high this bounce could go. The overall pressure seems to indicate a downward trend.

Bitcoin is manically depressed at the moment

As said earlier,if the price stays below 645 - 660 level for next 4 days (till Christmas) from now,then major fall to 215 to 240 level is very likely.

Thank you for the analysis. I look forward to the market drop.

I doubt this. There was a massive amount of buying on Stamp at 380.  A lot of support.  Maybe Btc-E could go to 240, but I do not think the other exchanges will.

What if the support was just bitfinex margin trading, and they were following btcchina.

I don't think it was. I could have been. But Gox had good support too. I think there was a lot of real fiat waiting for an entry point. I think Loaded's trip is a sign that there is fiat waiting to spend. But I do think the rally since has been leveraged quite a bit.

Only a third of the +400k 24h volume was due to bitstamp. The support was as strong the 50.01 bottom on April. Bitfinex reports last 24h volume routed through Bitstamp, maybe someone noted it down, but I think its importance is overestimated because it is just a small fraction usually.
About the future: even though btcchina is shrinking, ask sum on MtGox has decreased since the crash started, which is absurdly bullish (in these circustances this means moving sideways).

That said, new lows relative to the exponential long term trend line (which is going up at 23%/month, around 100$/month now) will probably be reached, similarly to the 70 bottom on july.

The level of 581 to 534 is crucial for BTCUSD market.If market remains below 534 level for 3-4 days then, it would take at-least  more than 20 days to recover to current price level.

Short term buy signal
If in next 2 hours from now, 593 to 602 level is crossed,then market could reach 618 level, within next 6 hours from now.

Now that's good timing :)

Market is continuously sustaining its positive volume, since yesterday.

It could reach 695 level in next 24 hours, if resistance band of 615 to 625, is crossed, for at-least 8 hours.

Super.  Look at all you stock guys thinking you can predict Bitcoin.

i realize much of this is the same human psychology involved in stocks.  But you are not dealing with the same beast itself.

Rather than predict whats going to happen 3 hours from now, can you tell us when your crystal ball says we will start rising to a new price category higher?

I hope you guys making all your predictions with all your way cool day trader jargon are actually subscribed to Google news feeds for "Bitcoin" so you can see the true factor in Bitcoins true value:  Whats happening in the industry.

In the end, nothing else matters.    And its whats happening there, that is building stability into the $100 , $200 , $300 , $400 BTC base value.

I'm surprised we have found support here. I assumed we were going closer to $300 for a base before the ext move higher. Who knows if this is the en of the correction but I'm wondering what Could cause a push to
A new high?

Support seems shaky though.

Who knows what the future will bring?

Markets reached 670 (accuracy +/- 3.6 %)

Today's scene

Markets had to rise till 752 till 26 December 2013 otherwise collapse may be huge.

This reads as though you think it is still going to go down just not as low as was anticipated by most. Is this correct?

Bingo. Well said.

I have to agree that Bitcoin is bigger than a simple stock, however, the market responds like a money market, and the Op appears fairly well versed in that field, see earlier in the the thread where he's been hitting numbers with deft accuracy.  I believe Fibonacci scaled trading can be applied wonderfully to Bitcoin, as it can with just about everything.

I also believe these numbers are scaling out just as quickly as the Bitcoin infrastructure, which is building exponentially, but there are limits, and within those limits are fantastic opportunities to double, triple, or even quadruple your holdings, and that is where people like the Op sail regularly...I like those seas.  And yes, I am subscribed to several Google Alerts related to Bitcoin...this is Bitcoin's Anonymous, is it not?

Yes it is correct.

Thanks for the reply.

Gox is at 700, the rest at 650. I agree with you, I think it's going to drop but not so sure about the 200 range.

At least to 500s. More likely within 400s. 300s if we are lucky :)

spndr7, for the next 'Big' bubble, what would you expect the values to rise to? What period in future do you think the bubble will begin?

Your crystal ball seems fairly accurate - so we are happy to hear your input :)

p.s. I am learning quite a bit from this thread. Thank you for sharing your expertise with us.

Yes, that's what I'm feeling, somewhere in the 350-400 as the low. Then only reason I don't see it going to 200's is the amount of ppl jumping on that price causing the price to jump back up. Same thing just happened when it dipped to 380ish. As soon as it got in that range I saw the orders go crazy and it quickly jumped back to 525-550.

This is a very good thread. Much to learn from it!

Market went to 739 today ( within +/- 1.7 % of predicted value in the given time frame ).

UPDATE: No error - Reached 752 level at about 1930 hrs GMT - 26 th December 2013.

I'd love to hear an update, spndr7! :)

Long term perspective from now:

Market would trade between 623 to 778 band till January 9,2014 (if any extreme news doesn't come in this period),although there is chance of break of this upper-band in next 5 days .

Today's signal (http://xchang.in/xcharts/blog/index.php?id=20)

What about jan 9th - do you expect it to skyrocket? What is the significance of jan 9th?

Can't be said anything from now,but now market is near to the identical positive volumes (that propelled it to 1090 on 30 Nov 2013).

If the surge continues, market may breach resistance 778, in 3-5 days. After that breach, it can easily go till 960.

And what will the market do if China say:

"We have changed our minds! We think Bitcoin is really cool, everyone pile in!"

Or if they instead say:

"Right, Bitcoin is now illegal in China. Anyone found in possession of Bitcoin or doing Bitcoin transactions will be considered a traitor to China and tried accordingly"

Where is the single most make or break issue affecting Bitcoin in this present time, reflected in your charts? Afterall, we know that the ball is going to land somewhere in between those two extremes and we know that when it does, the impact on Bitcoin will be huge either way.

Markets could easily drop to 634 to 645 in next 48 hours from now.

http://xchang.in/xcharts/blog/images/4.png

care to explain what exactly is the bearish signal here? all i see is a divergent consolidation channel, at the end of which one would expect a resumption of the uptrend from $600.

It can break 705 level bollinger band,due to recent negative volume.


My prediction is more or less the same (resistance at 623 level).

it is farthest from my wishes to hijack your thread, but i do believe that this kind of discussion between analyses is constructive for both parties, thank you.

if you would consider:

http://s27.postimg.org/nens8zj7n/trend.png

two possible moving supports on the 6-hour RSI, both robust with 3 points of contact. the most recent bounce off of BLACK corresponds with the price threatening to break out of its lower bollinger band in your figure. as a side note, it is always wonderful to see agreement between two technical measures as it is one of the few ways to show empirical consistency in this practice.

anyway, i do think it was a bit premature to call bear as the moving supports are quite robust -- as i mentioned in an earlier post, supporting this rally from $600. sure enough, we bounced and the picture still looks rather bullish to me if we factor in other indicators and the large volume corresponding with the bottom under $400.

unless we actually break under this support, there is no bear signal i can see.

--arepo

Thanks for comparing your analysis with mine, and deriving insightful conclusions.

There is a chance to cross that RSI support,even after the third bounce (as indicated in your graph)


Market would trade between 623 to 778 band till January 9,2014 (if any extreme news doesn't come in this period),although there is chance of break of this upper-band in next 4 days .

@ spndr7 & arepo : so if i am understanding what you are saying, for the next 5-10days, there is an up band at aruond 770 from which it could then skyrocket to 900ish and a low band at around 705 where it could then drop to 600ish.. or have i completely misunderstood?!

edit: I figured that between 700-750 is the correct price for bitcoin ATM and considering all the recent fuzz around it

You have compeltely understood, and your comment is a precise summary of our recent discussion.

arepo - Is this our bear signal crossing the RSI support?

https://www.tradingview.com/x/hg02ySmu/

Seems we got MACD cross hitting on the same timeframe as well. I'm still on the fence as to how things will work out, but watching closely.

that flash crash was strange. sort of like a long squeeze. heavy volume over a very short period and then a rapid recovery.

it is true that it caused the RSI to break below the moving support. however, this alone is still not necessarily bearish. on the other hand, the bullish picture is gone. we seem to have a strong moving support but low weekend volume butting the price against a significant resistance. i would expect sideways consolidation until we can get enough volume for the market to make a decision either way.

--arepo

Not sure how much value you place on this kind of (order book based) observation, but I noticed that in the last 24h, the bid/ask ratios across mtgox, bitstamp and btcchina are all recovering quite significantly. For the past few days they were more or less universally in decline (despite price staying mostly stable), but this situation is turning around. I'm going from "undecided" (my sentiment yesterday) to "mildly sure the consolidation resolves upwards" because of the previous observation.

Are you sure you know what a bubble is?

Trolling over the word "bubble" !  :D

Aaand here we go...

Not sure how much staying power this one has, but it's nice to see an upward breakout like that.

Economic Bubble - wikipedia abstract (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_bubble)


Going through the definition,it is clear that I have not  'trolled over the word "bubble" '.

If I was trolling my estimations would n't have been consistency correct.

The time (November 19, 2013, 12:10 AM UTC) when prediction was made, bitcoin was trading at 560 USD(which was all time high till then).

Today's indicator :

Market will move between 716 to 734 today.

Previous day's result


Market went till 737 (accuracy : +/- 0.4 %)


Today's signal
If the price goes below 716 level for more than 1 hour, then it could fall down to 712 level, within next 12 hrs.

If the support at 712 is broken,then could slide down to 690 level.

agreed. we need a high-volume recovery soon or else the picture turns bearish (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=392713.msg4232110#msg4232110).

But how much significance is it that it's a holiday season with relatively low volume with these upward and downward predictions?  With low volume charting has something less significance, no?   

Great analysis though of the rolling inflection points.

thanks for the feedback :)

the low volume is also because we are in the final stages of consolidation before the next market decision. the price is trapped within a relatively small range and most participants are comfortable with their current position and are waiting for a signal outside of the present channel before taking an action.

further, many indicators take volume into consideration, although none of the ones feature in the post i linked really do. this is not necessarily a weakness though, because they are designed to function independent of volume.

worst case here, is that the holiday slump and low volume draw out the consolidation a little longer than expected, as the price will need some serious energy to break out of this channel. i'll have to look back at some of my past work, but from my knowledge of how they are calculated, the directionality of the indicators i used should not be invalidated by low volume.

--arepo

Very low/ high volumes fail most indicators.


Today's trend
Trading will be in a small band from 721.6 to 737 at least for next 9 hours.

creating noise in indicator data and invalidating indicator data are two different creatures.

Volume and price remain relatively stable over the last week, yet the total market cap for BTC economy has increased over $1billion USD during that time. This makes me think we're going to see a rally and subsequent price increase.

in what way is the market cap relevant? no way 1 BLN USD got into BTC during last week. It's based purely on speculative price rise.

I think "the next market" after the final stages started.  Heck of a "predication".  I don't get impressed easily.  I am impressed.

Can you list 7 random numbers for me all under 75? ;)

It seems like market has woken up on 6th day from that prediction.

If market closes above 774 level today, than that will reverse the downtrend continuing since 16 december 2013 (market was at 792 level).
If market surges past the today's resistance band of 774 to 778, then will have chance to reach to 960 level within next 6 days from now.

I'm seeing up indicators, especially on Gox. 

With Mt.Gox showing $860 right now, I expect the Bitstamp prices to ramp up as arbitragers even things out.

The sharp rise at Gox also indicates to me some fairly substantial uptake of Bitcoin in Japan -- shortly after geographically close China took its money transmitter businesses out of Bitcoin.  So I'm saying, 'hmmmmmm' and speculating that possibly some unknown channel is now satisfying Chinese demand for Bitcoins via Japan.

It's just speculation where the demand is coming from, but if it is Chinese demand, it's surprising; I'd have expected the limits on trading BTC in China to make it less desirable to Chinese. 

Then again, if you think Americans are distrusting and cynical of their government you haven't talked to very many Chinese people.  The demand for Bitcoin could be a 'vote of no confidence' in the Yuan and the Chinese government's ability to manage their economy. Of course that's even more speculation to justify the first bit of speculation, so I'm either really insightful or really off in the weeds.

In your opinion, what is the chance of a final big crash to 600, 500 levels happening within this month before the stabilization of price?

Its will be highly improbable of any fall this month,if market remains above 775 level till 5 jan, although there is a small window for falling below/to 648 level around 20-21 january 2014.

my models similarly predict another high-volume capitulation in about 3 weeks.

Can I ask, do your models cater for the virality that Bitcoin is imbued with now? Do they cater for the Hodl philosophy (no joke!). Is it possible in your opinions as analysts accurately to incorporate these elements?

Market may trade in narrow band of 780 to 805, until upper breakout(as described in the previous post (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=338427.msg4279976#msg4279976)) doesn't happen,.

can you imagine an empirical method to quantify the effects of these things on the price?

unfortunately, it is difficult to say exactly how (and when!) these things will affect price, and so it is easiest just to rely on the information that is already priced in, which (under the efficient market hypothesis) should be all of it, but in reality is at least most of it. in this way, direct price analysis already accounts for the effects of the factors you mentioned.

--arepo

This one is correct.

Thank you for the thread and predictions, sir.  Been reading it for a while, and appreciate your input.  Hoping you're right about the upper breakout!

Erm... excuse me but are you really trying to tell us that you can predict that in 3 weeks from now there is going to be a high-volume dumping session? Come on, that's stretching it much too far. No amount of analysis can tell you that in this market.

But I suppose 3 weeks does give you quite a long period of time in which to hope for some kind of downtrend (although I have a strong sneaking suspicion the "final capitulation" scenario some buyers are waiting for is never going to happen).

you'd be surprised. i would post the models but im afraid i would be giving away far too much information.

--arepo

hint: the price function is self-similar on all scales like a fractal. zoom out and apply the same methods you do to make short-term calls, and voila! is that really a strange concept?

Result of Yesterday's Prediction

Market went to 781.26 and remained under 805 from almost whole day.


Today's Prediction
Strong sustainable volumes are driving market to completely break the resistance.If the current trend continues,then the market moves to target of 960, in next 6 to 9 days.

Yesterday's bearish movement Predicted 2 days ahead


Today's Signal

Today market could fall marginally to 885 to 892 between 0730 to 1230 hrs UTC.
But a quick bounce back from that level is indicated.

A bit early...but solid read to 960. Do you use Stamp or Gox as price targets?

960 target done  :)

I meant a bit early in the next 6-9 days to 960...only took 1-2 days. ;) 

But honestly, I hope the reads are for BTC or Stamp.  Those are the "real" prices of Bitcoin.  Basically no one can withdrawal anything without a 2 month wait on Gox so does that really count?

He's at BTC-E.

Yesterday's Result

The market went to 990 which is within (+/- 3.1 %) from predicted value of 960 on January,3.

Today's Signal

Today market must move above 904 to 912 band, after 0800 hrs UTC, to prevent a bearish move.

Today's normal trading zone -> 910 to 953 level.

Yesterday's Result


Yesterday, major fall started at around 1145 UTC, when market broke 904 to 912 support band.

Yesterday, market went up to 944,within (+/- 0.95 %) from predicted value.


Today's Signal

27.5 % fall in a short time, brought market to 720 level,but still momentum is not lost, and market had recovered in long term perspective.The market should be above 800 level, after 1930 hrs, on 10 Jan 2014,to avoid going again in bearish confusion.

So based on the current trading trend and support levels, if we're not above 800 by this Friday you think we're in a bear market? 

We've had a nice pop back and we broke the initial support ~900 level.  I see next support ~800 level.  We need to stay above that.

What bear market are you talking about ?
We are still in a medium-term-bull-market since 12/18/2013

My apologizes, I read your post as bearish confusion as a bear market.  Very different.  That's why the question!  We have been in a steady uptrend since mid Dec on basically any charting technique.  Exactly, what bear market. :)

you forgot your ironic smileys
that`s why I posted

Yes

Market looks like to break 855 resistance level.This should happen after with 12 hrs from now,if market remains above 800 level, as predicted
yesterday.

After breaking 855 level,it can go easily, till 908 level.

I think your blog is excellent and you've had some great predictions that are very accurate.

But you're saying that BTC will be above 855 on BTC-e exchange?  I still think we're on a mini trend down and will be testing the ~800 support level very shortly...

Thanks for appreciation. Please do donate a fraction of profit,if my predictions help.

Result of Today's Prediction

Today USD/BTC went to 745 level, but could not break 855 barrier.

Just after 12 hours of the prediction, market plunged, from 822 to 780 in about an hour,thereby breaking support of 800.

Still its trying to hold 800 level now. Lets see, if it keeps above 800 level, after 1930 hrs, on 10 Jan 2014, as indicated in 8 jan 2014 's prediction.

1930 hrs  on 10th Jan,  is it UTC time 1930hrs ??

i expect a correction below 300$ this month or the next one

And I expect Janet Yellen's first action after assuming office to declare BTC the sole official currency of the US.

I'd put his guess at 3.2% of happening.  Yours at absolute 0. 

I don't like either bet at this point but will let you know.

We just broke support at $800.  I could see it at $740 range by the weekend.

Me too.

And I don't rule out 300 either. Just figured we're playing "pull unsubstantiated stuff out of your ass", so I played along :D

correction or slow downtrend is inevitable is such cases, unless you believe BTC will break all rules of economics and physics. but it already feels in the air that this bubble lost its energy and cannot continue efficiently rising before going down and taking a rest for some time.
what goes up must come down. before going up again.

to me those 2 charts look almost identical and everything looks clearly predictable:

https://blockchain.info/charts/market-price

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Stages_of_a_bubble.png

news from China are just confirming what will happen in the near future. when real panic will start (i mean REAL panic) BTC might even go below 100$ for some time, who knows.

All time mentioned in this thread are in UTC.


Both charts looks exceptionally similar.  :)

Today's prediction

Market must climb over 817 in next 4 hours from now,to avoid plunging to 750 to 720 level.

https://i.imgur.com/gka9qxJ.png

1 hr USD/BTC Chart

If it were to plunge now, would you predict the 'final' correction to the levels of 500 that was predicted back in early jan?

No,it would be hard to fall till that level,as positive volume is still steadily increasing since 21 Dec 2013. Now it has also surpassed,the historical 4 Dec 2013 (level of 1077).

Enjoying your posts

This is one of two threads on the entire front page of this sub forum that would've helped me realize profits or increased my btc holdings had I been trading along with it.

Just wanted to let you know you're work is appreciated!

Real appreciation for Op would be donating some to OP , check Op's sig.

I'm aware. Once I begin trading I fully intend to donate (assuming I do as well as I would have had I been trading to this point).

I know talk is cheap but I'm not here trying to convince anybody anything.

+1

Market survived the resistance band of 800 level after 1930 hrs, on 10 Jan 2014,as said 3 days ago, and looking strong to surge ahead,as steady flow of positive volumes is continuing.

Today’s target – 888 to 908 level



Thanks for appreciation.

Yesterday's Result


Yesterday,market reached 888 level at 1200 hrs UTC,then remained there, and could not breach lower edge (as predicted yesterday),till end of the day. 100 percent accuracy   ;D

Today's Signal

Market has moved in fast bullish lane, but volume has stopped increasing since 0000 hrs UTC,12 Jan 2014.This could has potential to bring USD/BTC to 701 level,if traders panic.

Market should be above 893 level,to keep it in linear bullish lane.

https://i.imgur.com/K95Y7bi.png

1 day USD/BTC candlestick chart

Yesterday’s Result

Market did not kept itself above 893 level, and went down till 815 level.

Today’s Signal

Market is on the edge right now (with reference to yesterday’s graph).
https://i.imgur.com/K95Y7bi.png

1 day USD/BTC candlestick chart



A downfall here, would bring market to 783 level, as volume positive volume is decreasing .





This would also serve an indicator of public sentimnet towards future.

Yesterday’s Result


Market went to 788.7 (within +/- 0.73 %) of the value predicted yesterday.

Today’s Signal

Market must move above 830 level,after next 12 hrs from now.Falling to to so, will bring it again, to 786 level.

If resistance band of 779 to 787 is breached, then fall to 720 level is indicated.

Yesterday’s Result


Yesterday USD/BTC went up to 840 level (+/- 1.2% from predicted value of resistance), but could not break it, and stayed below it.


Today’s Signal

Market must stay above 815 level, after 4 hrs from now, to avoid falling down.


0900 hrs UTC, today, would be a deciding time for the market.

Hi spndr7,

what is your guidance since change in market sentiment in last few hours mostly fueled by new coming out of China bitcoin conference.

If resistance of 847 is broken, then BTC/USD can climb to 887 level .Since 0400 hrs UTC,volume has been pumped in,so if rally continues, we may see 880 level soon  :)

is 880 still the target.

Seems that breaking $850 resistance is not that easy...

Guess that's why they call is resistance eh? ;)  We keep knocking on the door but the sell block is fairly thick at this level and even up to ~860 mark.  If we can push through these levels I can see nearing 900 by the end of the week.  It's a pretty big if though.  If we don't push through soon though I can see it falling back to around ~825-835 level.

Yesterday’s Result

Market reached 848.45 level (highest of yesterday),around the deciding time 0900 hrs UTC, as predicted yesterday.


Today’s Signal
Market must move above 855 level, after 0530 hrs UTC,on 18 Jan 2014, to maintain the upward trend, started since, 1400 hrs UTC on 13 Jan 2014 (when market was at 791 level).

Interesting to look at the trading today, looks like both BTC and LTC have been relatively stable all day with small variations.  

Here's a 10 day chart from BTC-e, because, why not  ;D


https://i.imgur.com/JiWkp9D.jpg

Price seems to be consolidating at around 840.  I can't tell whether it's going to break up or down, but when it does it's going to be sudden.  People have been putting limit orders on both sides.  But smaller and smaller movements get those orders out of the way as time goes on.  When it breaks resistance on either side, there's no more order volume to keep it bounded on that side.

Market seems to have stabilized after a long period,since 15 Jan. Lets see how much time does it take this narrow range.

Yesterday’s Result


Yesterday USD/BTC went to 845 level, but could not break 855 barrier, and came down till 805 level.


Today’s Signal

Bearish movement seems like to have begun,market can fall down to 704 level, in next 7 days from now.

Yes,  I see $690

And $630 being key levels next month


Current $ 803 call me crazy

Yesterday’s Result


Yesterday USD/BTC went to 783 level (resistance level predicted on 13 Jan 2014 post)

Today’s Signal

812 to 817 resistance band is crucial for today.If this market stays below this band for next 4 hrs,then further downfall is possible.This time, 783 support level may not work.




There is a chance of fall between 20 Jan to 2 Feb 2014, if market goes below 725 to 653 band in this period.This fall may bring USD/BTC down to 275 level.

Are you talking bitcoin or Litecoin?

Thanks for correcting it.

Yesterday’s Result


Market stayed below that crucial margin, except for 1.5 hours of surprise surge (which brought BTC/USD momentarily, to 839 level).

Today’s Signal

It must be above 814 level, after 11 hrs from now, to prevent further down trend.

Support of 806 level, is crucial for today.

Seems that is already broken.

Yesterday’s Result


Just after 11 hrs of this prediction, market entered into a rally, breaking 814 resistance, and reaching to previous high of 840.

Today’s Signal

If market goes below 831 level,than can fall to 813 level.

Normal trading zone : 809 to 838

Yesterday’s Result


Market went down till 814.44 and climbed till 841.63 level,exactly matching the range given yesterday.

Today's signal

Considering positive volume, market has recovered the damage, done by 17 jan 2014 fall, which brought it to 783 level.

Market must stay above 828.5, from 0400 hrs to 1300 hrs UTC. If it goes below, then could fall to 823.8 level.Breaking down 823 support, may again bring it to 815 level.

Those ranges are very narrow  in my opinion too narrow

But totally bang on correct so far and if you look at the order book, likely to remain in this narrow space until the break down finally hits.

Perhaps Spndr is so good at predicting price cos he programs the bots that are engineering the price in the first place?

Edit: Come clean spndr. How could u possibly have predicted such narrow trading ranges, admit it, you are the man who programs the trading bots, right?

Ever heard a saying: "Soon a modern trading floor will consist of a computer, a man and a dog"? Black-box trading here it comes.

Yesterday’s Result


Market went down to 820 level,at around 1230 hrs UTC (within +/- 0.61 % of predicted value)

Today's signal

Market will decide, to move out of this small band (809 to 841), before 0130 hrs 25 Jan 2014.

Going below 822 level, can lead to a fall to 809 level.





I assure you, that, I have not created any bot for bitcoin/cryptocoin trading till now nor  am I associated with any bot-trading company,although, there is future plan of creating bot based service.

Its just trading experience,I have been trading cryptos, since mtgox (first crytocoin exchange ) started in 2010, and also traded alt-coins from the beginning (since start of first altcoin - solid coin in 2011).

I was the first to give idea of inter currency crpto-coin trading.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=6350 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=6350)

First of all, thank you very much. Your predictions are spot-on!

Which side do you predict the market to move?

Yesterdays was madder than spot on. That was like insider knowledge to call that!

I say he is responsible for data entry into the exchange trading bots, but in the classic stereotypical form, he needs to somehow let the world know his greatness, thus he comes on here and basically tells us how him and his cabal are going to manipulate the market next.

Thanks for appreciation,please donate to address below, if my predictions help you in making profit.



I have already answered you, but for the sake answering, quoting it again.

what is this?
https://bitcointalk.org/useravatars/avatar_205.png

Random logo design attempt by me.

Is the breakout to be expected on the upside? Or is it still undecided and it depends on what happens until the 25th?

You got my point, it still undecided and it depends on what happens until the 25th jan 2014.

I didn't read all the posts, but I see users talking about the accurate predictions of the OP, looking to his stats beside being an early adopter (2010) he seems to spend allot of time on Indian sub-forums or related threads to India, which means that he is from India or an enthusiastic of its culture.

that been said, India is a poor country with a very rich culture, one of the most attractive things are the Vedas, you can learn allot of things, so my silly guess is that he uses astrology in his predictions and if this is true he has to be a kick ass astrologist ;)


I cant say that I am believer in astrology, but the relation between it and between astronomy doesn't seem to be a coincidence, I didn't spend allot of time to study this subject for one reason, assuming that astrology gives us the possibility of "predicting" the future and knowing things that might happen keeps me away of it, I like to live my unpredictable life and be surprised with every event, "knowing" about things and wait for them to happen or try to trick the universe doesn't work for me.... my faith is my destiny, this is what I believe.


sorry for the off-topic post, but I just wanted to point that out ;)

 

Is it really need to judge Op & dissect into his personality e.t.c , if his predictions are accurate & help us earn btc or $ then good or else ...

who did judge his personality ? how what I wrote (if you meant me) was even related to the OP personality ?

There's no crash coming, maybe a dip here and there. Bitcoin is too widely used right now for a crash. Every day more and more respected businesses are accepting this currency. It's the currency of the future and the future is now!

IMO, you're way off base with the astrology connection (in that I dont think he uses astrology to predict btc prices) and I really think you're reaching there...but of course I could be the one who's wrong.

Whatever it is.....he's been pretty accurate and I've been following this thread since it started.

Ah, just the kind of reassurance I was looking for!

Now I know I can mortgage the house and put it all on Bitcoin and sleep soundly at night!

Cheers buddy, yer a real pal!

I'd sell the house and take out a few loans and some more off-the-books loans from some motorcycle club, borrow from family and go all in on bitcoin :)

Wow!

How come I never thought of that? Bitcoin is the money of the future and the future is now!

How can I possibly lose?

This forum is the best! I love u guys!

Maybe it's a language thing, but I feel you might have missed that MatTheCat probably wasn't serious about you actually setting the price. Or maybe I missed that you actually didn't miss it ... it's all so confusing :D

Anyway, keep going. The real test for your predictions will of course be once we're getting to the moment of decision (if there will be one), and how your predictions will capture that.

Today’s Scene

https://i.imgur.com/lnZImzb.png

4 hr candlestick USD/BTC chart

Range is getting narrower with time. But volume is consistently rising. Seems like heading towards upper breakout, as predicted on 21 Jan 2014.

volume has risen a little bit in the last hour and that is it.

otherwise volume is as low as it has been for weeks..

This guy says we're in a "bullish pennant":

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/talking-numbers/why-bitcoin-is-poised-to-break-out-to-all-time-highs-141729681.html

And he's a "professional" since he's on TV so he must be right... ;)

Doesn't look very fucking bullish to me!

But I am not on TV so I can't possibly have a clue what I am talking about.

I have a hunch that the price won't go anywhere soon.

Market had finally decided to be bearish.To continue this trend, staying below resistance level of 818 is necessary.

We may see a drop to  720 level in next 5-6 days. Surprisingly BTC/USD remained cool, in the current turmoil of LTC/USD.

BTC is being artificially held up, perhaps LTC isn't.

Yesterday’s Result


Market went to 754 level, within +/- 4.72 % of the predicted value.

Today's signal
After 7 % fall from 812 to 754 in less than 10 hrs,770 level is acting like a recovery support. But volume wise, its just a little better than 754 level,so may be this is a trap.

Market should come to, or move above, resistance band of 776 to 785, in next 12 hrs from now,to remain stable and not fall down again.

This sounds just about right in my opinion...

Yesterday’s Result


Just after 1200 hrs UTC, market crossed above 785 resistance level, and jumped to 818 level, in 5 hrs.

Today's signal

Market should remain above 800 level, after 5 hrs from now,to remain in this positive mood. Resistance band of 816 to 824, will be working for next 14 hrs.

Yesterday’s Result


For 1 hour market went to 791 level, but quickly came above 800 level. USD/BTC went up to, 830 (+/- 0.73 % of the predicted upper resistance band)

Today's signal

Price should move above 817 level, after 17 hrs to continue this upward trend.

Today's normal trading range : 803 to 835

Yesterday’s Result

Just after 17 hrs from the prediction, market breached 803 resistance, and fell to 727  level.

Today's Prediction

If market goes below 733 level in next 3 days,then it could fall again to 470 level in some time. Markets need to breach 790 to 800 band,to be in the bull run.

Today's Trading Signal

Short signal -- Sell @ 768  -- Take profit @ 753 -- Stop loss @ 784 -- expiry -- 0830 hrs 28 Jan 2014 UTC

hello,
dont you think BTC would go back to 803-830 range before any drop back to 770ish? i though 800 was kind of a strong support

A considerable sudden surge in buying power just pushed up towards this range. The whales need confidence in sufficient volume in this range again to maximise their cashing out potential.

1. Daily trend and analysis report for USD/BTC and USD/LTC.

2. Analysis based on multiple time-frames.

3. Daily USD/BTC and USD/LTC market summary.

4. Atleast 1 trade signal daily, each for USD/BTC and USD/LTC.

5. Public display of result of each signal (http://xchang.in/xcharts/sig_perform.html).

6. Full refund of subscription fees (excluding the transaction fee 0.0001 BTC) incase of cumulative net-loss in trade signal performance (http://xchang.in/xcharts/sig_perform.html).

7. Reports and signals would be sent to you by email.

8. Offer valid only till, 1630 hrs, 29 Jan 2014  UTC.


Past prediction performance can be seen on xcharts market blog (http://xchang.in/xcharts/blog/).

Send 0.0044 BTC to 1LDTxfdQafwreoeWgZnBv6p5yFd11bGMq9

Then PM txid (transaction id) and your email.

Resistance at 800 level is strong (as of now), price is reaching 799 then returning.

Would consider signing up (even for a longer running newsletter), but your analysis is based on btc-e, right? Any chance you could extend your service to Bitstamp? (and please don't say "the rates across exchanges are correlated anyway", they are, I know, but often enough there's a critical delay between trends on different exchanges, and it's tedious to translate signals from one exchange to another)

I have the same requirement, if it is possible for you to cover bitstamp, I'd be more than willing to subscribe.

me too

Yesterday’s Result


Market got above 800 level just for 3 hrs. BTC/USD is still sailing below 790 to 800 band.

But the good thing that had happened is, market has gained fully its stability.

Signal closed in 1.7 % profit.




Bitstamp would be added soon.

Yesterday's Prediction


Yesterday's Analysis

Market remained above 777 resistance level throughout the day, so given signal was

not executed. Only movement happened was around 1500 hrs UTC, when price jumped

from 779 to 797 USD, yesterday.

Yesterday's Prediction


Yesterday's Analysis

Around 1430 hrs yesterday market broke the first resistance of 788 level, by jumping

from 775 to 808 level.

its still definitely a buy for me

31 Jan 's Prediction


31 Jan 's Analysis

Market went up till 802.1 (within +/- 0.14 % of predicted resistance of yesterday)

1 Feb's Prediction


1 Feb 's Analysis

USD/BTC stayed above 790 level, and jumped from 796.7 to 817.4, in just 5 hrs.

2 Feb's Prediction


2 Feb 's Analysis

Exactly at 0600 hrs UTC, market broke 808 resistance, then climbed to 815 level

(within +/- 0.12 % of upper limit predicted yesterday)

Around 1830 hrs UTC, market plunged from 808.5 level to 791.6 USD (within

+/- 0.3 % of lower limit predicted yesterday), in just 5.5 hrs duration.

3 Feb's Prediction


3 Feb 's Analysis

Market stayed below 801 resistance, before 0700 hrs and plunged to 784.85 level in next

half hrs. USD/BTC climbed to 805 level at around 2100 hrs.

Hope all is well spendr.

Was curious to see if you had any short term analysis and or predictions as opposed to the observations you've been posting of late.

Cheers

ps: any idea/ETA about Bitstamp?

Since 29 Jan 2014,daily predictions have been made a paid service. So, result of previous days are updated on this thread.


ETA for bitstamp is 18 Feb 2014, when payment and prediction would be integrated on xchang.in.

Ah great, will be keeping an eye on this, thx

4 Feb's Prediction


4 Feb 's Analysis

Market kept itself above support of 798 level, 1530 hrs, and is stable again, with a bullish

direction.

5 Feb's Prediction


5 Feb 's Analysis

Market  kept itself below 803 after 0730 hrs, and fell to 772.3 level at the end of the day.

so are you bullish or bearish rolling into tomorrow?  Pricing has held very stable over the past week, but there were a couple sizable sell-offs today that were larger than any other all week..

Inspite of so much  positive news,people are not ready to buy bitcoin. Its really strange, how people panic sell without any real bad news.

I think 800 level would be regained in 4-5 days.

Investors are testing bitcoin's stability, before investing in it. I think 1 month of stability from now, would convince them to buy.



USD/BTC fell to 727 level on 28 Jan 2014,but did not entered in the band given by me. Now 770 to 810 level will act as base for at least next month .

6 Feb's Prediction


6 Feb 's Analysis

Market followed 30 Jan 2014’s sentiment as quoted yesterday, and went to a lowest of 760.

7 Feb's Prediction


7 Feb 's Analysis

Market struggled to keep it above (7 to 9 Feb), but bad news from mtgox pulled it to new depth, and it went to historical level of 301 on 10 Feb 2014.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------




1. Trend,analysis and market report, for at-least 5 days in a week.

2. Analysis based on multiple time-frames.

3. At-least 4 trade signals in a week, each for BTC-e ( USD/BTC and USD/LTC ) and bitstamp (USD/BTC).

4. Public display of result of each signal (http://xchang.in/xcharts/sig_perform.html).

5. Full refund of subscription fees (excluding the transaction fees) in-case of cumulative net-loss in trade signal performance (http://xchang.in/xcharts/sig_perform.html).

6. Reports and signals would be sent to you by email.

7. Subscription for this month is open till 3 March 2014.

8. 30 days service would be provided, starting from the next day of the payment.

Nothing new? :(

As new subscription round has started, prediction results would be posted from 27 Feb 2014.

Subscribed, looking forward!

26 Feb's Prediction


26 Feb 's Analysis

Around 1000 hrs UTC, market reached till 590 level, and had stayed below it, till
now.

3.57 % profit in yesterday's signal




26 Feb's Prediction


26 Feb 's Analysis

Market has moved in a bullish zone, by going to 608 level around 0600 hrs UTC.

27 Feb's Prediction


27 Feb 's Analysis

After 0830 hrs market went to 549.5 level (within +/- 3.7 % of lower value predicted

yesterday), but regained its strength back in just some hours.






27 Feb's Prediction


27 Feb 's Analysis

USD/BTC is showing remarkable stability around 585 level, for the last two

days. Market reached 598 level twice at 0100 hrs, and at 1500 hrs UTC.

28 Feb's Prediction


28 Feb 's Analysis

Market  went down till 533 level (within +/- 0.18 % of the predicted value yesterday ).

Trade signal did opened, but was very accurate.




28 Feb's Prediction


28 Feb 's Analysis

Market broke support at 560 level, and went to 535 level (within +/- 0.93 % of the

predicted value on 26 Feb).

1.74 % profit in yesterday's signal.

1 March' s Prediction


1-2 March 's Analysis

Just as predicted - market broke down 544 level at 1330 hrs,1 Mar 2014 , and rose

to 559 level in next 5 hrs. There was a dip to 546 level, towards the end of the day,

but quick recovery brought bitcoin, back to 559 level.






1 March' s Prediction


1-2 March 's Analysis

Market went down till 553, but jumped back to 570, towards the end of 2 Mar 2014.

3 March' s Prediction


3 March 's Analysis

There was a rise of 19.5 % (575 to 687) in a span of just 3 hrs, from 1430 hrs to

1730 hrs UTC.







3 March' s Prediction


3 March 's Analysis

Market was above 571 level after 1200 hrs UTC, just as predicted. There was an upper

breakout of (21 % increase) around 1200 hrs UTC. Bear phase of 27 days, since 5

Feb 2014 is broken now.

2.5 % profit in yesterday's signal.

4 March' s Prediction


4 March 's Analysis

Market went upto 698 level (within +/- 1% of predicted value yesterday).







4 March' s Prediction


4 March 's Analysis

Market went upto psychological level of 700 (within 1.45 % of predicted value yesterday).

Market fell below 673, and is heading towards 653, as predicted, although there was a

bear spike around 1800 hrs, to 633 level.

5 March' s Prediction


5-6 March 's Analysis

USD/BTC traded flatly between narrow zone of 634 to 659.






5 March' s Prediction


5-6 March 's Analysis

Market has shown great stability since 1800 hrs, 4 Mar 2014. It has been trading in a

narrow band of 650 to 680. Resistance of  680 predicted on 4th March, is working very

well now.

7 March' s Prediction


7 March 's Analysis

Support of 615 (as predicted on 5 March) has helped bitcoin to stay afloat for a while,

but it is vaporizing fast.  






7 March' s Prediction


7 March 's Analysis

Market went down till 613 (within +/-1.2 % of support value predicted on 5 March )

at around 1730 hrs.

8 March' s Prediction


8-9 March 's Analysis

Market came down till 595 level at around 1800 hrs, on 8 March, reached to 640

level on the next day, at same time of the day. Positive volume is increasing since

595 level.





8 March' s Prediction


8-9 March 's Analysis

Market did not went down below 604 level, and been rising since that level, to a maximum

of 653, at around 1400 hrs on 9 March.

10 March' s Prediction


10 March 's Analysis

Support at 621 level was broken, and market went down till 609 , at around 2000 hrs.  






10 March' s Prediction


10 March 's Analysis

Market went down till 609 (within +/- 0.82 % of yesterday's predicted value), at around

2000 hrs.

11 March' s Prediction


11 March 's Analysis

Market went down till 616.1 level (within +/-0.26 % of predicted value of yesterday's

support level ) at around 2100 hrs, but went to 636 level in next 5 hrs. 






11 March' s Prediction


11 March 's Analysis

Market went down till 609 (within +/- 0.82 % of yesterday's predicted value), at around

2000 hrs.

12 March' s Prediction


12 March 's Analysis

The high of yesterday was 637 (exactly exactly spot-on).






12 March' s Prediction


12 March 's Analysis

As USD/BTC did not not cross 680 level yesterday (as predicted on 5 Mar),

and fell to support level of 630 (as predicted on 10 Mar).

You are doing pretty well on your analysis/predictions. Good job!

13 March' s Prediction


13 March 's Analysis

Market traded in a very narrow band of 622 to 635. It seems like traders are enjoying this rare

stability and adopting wait and watch policy, until some havoc trading does n't happen, due to

such external news or critical point of stagnation (CPOS).






13 March' s Prediction


13 March 's Analysis

Market reached yesterday's target and touched 650 level at about 1200 hrs.

1.5 % Profit in yesterday's signal

14 March' s Prediction


14-15 March 's Analysis

Support of 620 was not breached. Market saw a very little movement. There was a little
movement to 633.6 at about 2000 hrs on 15 March





14 March' s Prediction


14-15 March 's Analysis

631 level was not breached fully, as the market just went down till 625, but jumped back

to 636, as of now.

16 March' s Prediction


16 March 's Analysis

Support  of 620 was not breached. Market saw a very little movement. There

was a little movement to 618.8 at about 1545 hrs on 16 March.





16 March' s Prediction


16 March 's Analysis

As said earlier bitcoin has left the bullish lane since 0400 hrs 14 March.

This can also lead to long term stability.

17 March' s Prediction


17 March 's Analysis

Market broke around 0830 hrs from 627 to 608 in just 4.5 hrs.





17 March' s Prediction


17 March 's Analysis

BTC did not moved above 634, and broke at 0600 hrs from 633 to 620 level,

in just 2 hrs.

18 March' s Prediction


18-19 March 's Analysis

Market went to 598 level at around 1330 hrs on 18 March, but it is steadily drifting towards

584 as predicted on 18 March. The sudden downfall as predicted had happened.





18 March' s Prediction


18-19 March 's Analysis

Around 1130 hrs, 18 March, market went down 591 level (within +/- 0.15 % of predicted value).

20 March' s Prediction


20 March 's Analysis

Market fell to 582 level, and it seems, it is providing some support.





20 March' s Prediction


20 March 's Analysis

There was a fall of 5.4 % from 611 to 578. Around 1400 hrs, 20 March, market

went down to 578 level.

21 March' s Prediction


21 March 's Analysis

Market fell to 561 level(within +/- 0.71 % of the predicted yesterday’s

value), around 1200 hrs UTC.





21 March' s Prediction


21 March 's Analysis

Bitcoin fell to 556 (within +/- 0.71 % of the predicted yesterday’s value), around 1130 hrs.

1. Trend,analysis and market report, for at-least 5 days in a week.

2. Analysis based on multiple time-frames.

3. At-least 4 trade signals in a week, each for BTC-e ( USD/BTC and USD/LTC ) and bitstamp (USD/BTC).

4. At-least 1 trade signal daily, each for USD/BTC and USD/LTC.

5. Public display of result of each signal (http://xchang.in/xcharts/sig_perform.html).

6. Full refund of subscription fees (excluding the transaction fees) in-case of cumulative net-loss in trade signal performance (http://xchang.in/xcharts/sig_perform.html).

7. Reports and signals would be sent to you by email.

8. 30 days service would be provided, starting from the next day of the payment.






------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

23 March' s Prediction


23-24 March 's Analysis

Bitcoin remained below 576 level on 23 March, but went exactly

to the predicted level of 590, towards the end of 24th March.It

broke resistance at 576 level at about 2100 hrs, and within just

3 hours, went to 590 level.





23 March' s Prediction


23-24 March 's Analysis

Bitcoin remained below 570 on 23 March, but as predicted, it

achieved the target of 582, and went to 592 at 2100 hrs, on

24 March.

25 March' s Prediction


25 March 's Analysis


At 1800 hrs market went to 586 level, and stayed below it.





25 March' s Prediction


25 March 's Analysis

Bitcoin went to 587.5 level at around 2000 hrs, but could not

effectively be above 583, and fell to 568 level.

26 March' s Prediction


26 March 's Analysis


Price moved to 589 level, at around 1400 hrs, but its been

falling since 2100 hrs.





26 March' s Prediction


26 March 's Analysis

Market went down to 565 at around 0400 hrs, but largely

stayed above the level of 574. Currently, market is undergoing

a mini-crash, from 584 level, since 2230 hrs.

27 March' s Prediction


27 March 's Analysis

Market fell 15.3 % (583 to 472 USD).This havoc was predicted

on 22 March 2014, but market went till 472 (within 9.76 % of

the predicted value).

22 March 2014  - Prediction





27 March' s Prediction


27 March 's Analysis

The collapse predicted on 22 March has happened. Market fell

19.8 % from 581 to 466.

22 March 2014  - Prediction

28 March' s Prediction


28 March 's Analysis


BTC crossed 500 at 0300 hrs, and has thereafter, largely

remained above 500 .It has been relatively stable, since

1130 hrs.

Day High : 539 USD (0730 hrs UTC)




28 March' s Prediction


28 March 's Analysis

Bitcoin remained above 490 level and is looking stable.

29 March' s Prediction


29 March 's Analysis

Market could not cross 510 level, and went down to 485 level.

Day High : 506.9 USD (0500 hrs UTC)




29 March' s Prediction


29 March 's Analysis

Between 1000 to 1200 hrs, bitcoin went to 506.4, but cloud

not cross 507 level (as predicted yesterday), and fell to 480.

30 March' s Prediction


30 March 's Analysis

Market is continuing its journey on the downward incline and went

down to 450 level (1600 hrs).





30 March' s Prediction


30 March 's Analysis

Market went below 466 level, and fell to 436 (within +/- 4 % of

the predicted value).

Day Low – 436 USD (1600 hrs)

31 March' s Prediction


31 March 's Analysis

Market went down till 446 level around 0700 hrs.

Day High – 486.5 USD (0200 hrs)





31 March' s Prediction


31 March 's Analysis

Market went up to 469 level, but could not cross it.

Day Low – 438 USD (0600 hrs)

1 April' s Prediction


1 April 's Analysis

On crossing 465 level, market jumped to 500 psychological

level in just 3 hrs(around 0600 to 0900 hrs UTC)





1 April 's Prediction


1 April 's Analysis

Around 0600 hrs resistance 461 was broken, and market

jumped 459 to 510 in just 3 hrs (exactly as predicted on 31 March).

31 March 2014 - Prediction

30 March' s Prediction


2-4 April 's Analysis

Market went to 498.5 at 1000 hrs, 2 April, and fell to 410 level

(0600 hrs, 3 April). Market achieved the target of 430, predicted

on 22 March 2014. Its been stable since 1600 hrs, yesterday moving

in small band of 440 to 450.





30 March' s Prediction


2-4 April 's Analysis

Market fell 15.6 % from 494 to 417 within 18 hours (from 1200 hrs,

2 April to 0600 hrs, 3 April 2014). BTC fell below 466 level, and went

to 417 level (within +/- 0.48 % of the predicted value on 30 March

2014). Bitcoin has been stable around 440 to 450 level, for the last

12 hours.

5 April' s Prediction


5 April 's Analysis

Market crossed 454.5 level and went to 470 level, exactly

as predicted as yesterday.






5 April 's Prediction


5 April 's Analysis

Market has reached 460 level as given in yesterday’s signal.

Here's a stab at it by finding an average from the most recent trend convergence

down to 329.77 mid month

then people will attack and it'll go back up  ;D

6 April' s Prediction


6 April 's Analysis

Market moved to 471.2 level, but did not reached 475 level,

and went down to 450 level.






6 April 's Prediction


6 April 's Analysis

463 resistance worked very well, market moved in a very small range

of 446 to 465.

Day Low – 446.5 (1600 hrs).

7 April' s Prediction


7 April 's Analysis

Market largely stayed below the resistance of 455 level, and

went down to 438 level. Market has been very stable (High -

462 & Low – 438).






7 April 's Prediction


7 April 's Analysis

463 resistance worked , market moved in a very small range of 446 to 461.

Day Low – 446 (1600 hrs)

Bitcoin need just one big news to go to 600 level, its been really strange, how it has been held in the current range of 400.

7 April' s Prediction


8-10 April 's Analysis

Market came below 444 support level, and fell to 402.7 level (0800

hrs 10 April). Target of 410, predicted on 7 April 2014, was achieved.






5 April 's Prediction


8-10 April 's Analysis

Breaking 446 barrier lead the market, to plunge to 400 level (exactly

as indicated on 5 April’s prediction)

10 April' s Prediction


10-11 April 's Analysis

Market reached 342.8 (2300 hrs, 11 April). BTC moved within +/-

6.06 % to the given undisclosed target.






10 April 's Prediction


10-11 April 's Analysis

There was a huge fall of 17.9 % from 414 to 339 level. Market

went down to 339.8 level (within +/- 3.46 % of the predicted

value yesterday, and achieved yesterday's target)

Wait. how many hours before the crash have you predicted it?

22 hours before the crash

11 April' s Prediction


11 April 's Analysis

BTC achieved 409 level, as predicted in yesterday's signal.

Day High – 435 (1900 hrs)

11.44 % profit in yesterday's signal !!




11 April 's Prediction


11 April 's Analysis

BTC broke 370 resistance and, went to up, to 432 level(1230 hrs,11 April),

exactly as predicted yesterday.Heavy buying has happened, just as anticipated.

20 % profit in yesterday's signal !!

12 April 's Analysis

BTC traded absolutely flat, after 0900 hrs. Moving between

408 to 425 range.

Day High – 440 (0400 hrs)



12 April 's Analysis

BTC traded absolutely flat, after 0530 hrs. Moving between

413 to 429 range.

Day High – 439.5 (0430 hrs)

13 April' s Prediction


13 April 's Analysis

BTC fell to 382.4 (within +/- 2.23 % of yesterday's predicted value)

level (1700 hrs).

Day High – 411 (2000 hrs)





13 April 's Prediction


13 April 's Analysis

BTC fell to 397.16 (within +/- 0.55 % of yesterday's predicted value)

level (1630 hrs).

Day High – 418.2 (2330 hrs)

11 April' s Prediction



14 April' s Prediction


14-15 April 's Analysis

Market largely remained above 408 level, and had an upper breakout

as predicted on 14 April. Market moved, upto 545 level (within +/-

0.9 % of the value predicted on 11 April 2014)





12 April 's Prediction


14-15 April 's Analysis

Market remained bullish on 14 April, and went to 1st resistance

level of 480, which worked on 14 April. Around 2200 hrs, 15 April

2nd resistance level of 520 was also achieved.

High – 548 (0800 hrs, 16 April)

16 April' s Prediction


16-17 April 's Analysis

Market broke 502.5 level support (0900 hrs, 17 April), and fell to 468

(within +/- 0.86 % of predicted value yesterday).

High – 534.8 (0100 hrs, 17 April)





16 April 's Prediction


16-17 April 's Analysis

Market remained above 504 level after 1000 hrs, and went up to

537 (2300 hrs). A short-term crash happened around 0730 hrs,

17 April, which lead to fall to 481 (within +/- 1.26 % of predicted

value yesterday)

17 April' s Prediction


17-18 April 's Analysis

BTC mostly remained below 497 level, after 1000 hrs, 17 April.





17-18 April 's Analysis

Market traded in very small band from 493 to 508 level.

18 April' s Prediction


18 April 's Analysis

BTC  touched 457 level, around 1400 hrs.It tried regaining back.



18 April' s Prediction


18 April 's Analysis

As predicted yesterday market fell to 470 level (around 1200 hrs

and 2359 hrs).

20 April' s Prediction



20 April 's Analysis

BTC fell till 476 level, after 1500 hrs), and so stability was upheld,

exactly as predicted yesterday.
 
High – 504 (0400 hrs, 20 Apr and 0400 hrs, 21 Apr)

Low – 476 (1700 hrs)



20 April' s Prediction


20 April 's Analysis

Market remained largely above 496 level, crossed 507 level, and went

up-to 516.5 level (within +/- 0.48 % of the predicted value yesterday).

Day high – 516.5 (0200 hrs)

Day Low – 493 (1700 hrs)

21 April' s Prediction


21-22 April 's Analysis

Market came up to 515 (0300 hrs, 21 April).

Low – 485.2 (2200 hrs, 22 April)

23 April' s Prediction


23-24 April 's Analysis

Market fell below 479 level, and went down till 470 (within +/- 0.86 % of

yesterday’s predicted value). The upsurge continuing since 1100 hrs, 24

April took market to 495.7 level.


23 April' s Prediction


23-24 April 's Analysis

Market went down to 480 level (0600 – 1030 hrs, 24 April). At 1100 hrs,

24 April, BTC began climbing, and went up to 504 level.

Low – 480
High - 504

23 April' s Prediction


25 April 's Analysis

Market fell 12.8 % from 495.7 (0000 hrs, 25 April) to 432.2 (1300 hrs, 25 April).

444 level resistance, predicted on 23 April 2014, has worked.



25 April 's Analysis

Market fell down 13.1 %, from 504 level (0000 hrs, 25 April) to 438 level, in just 11

hrs. BTC made a sharp downward movement after 7 day stability (470 to 515 USD).

26 April 's Analysis

Market remained above 441 for most of the day.

Day High – 455.9 (1600 hrs)


26 April 's Prediction

Resistance is working at 472 level

26 April 's Analysis

Market came to 471, but could not break 472 resistance, which was predicted

yesterday.

Day High – 470.96 (1800 hrs)

Day Low - 451

27 April 's Analysis

Market fell 6.47 % from 448 level (1700 hrs) to 419 level (0100 hrs, 28 April).


27 April 's Analysis

Market fell 7.76 % from 458 level (1530 hrs) to 425 level.

28 April 's Analysis

BTC went down to 412 level (0545 hrs). After that it rose to

437 level in 15 hrs.



28 April 's Analysis

Market rose 6.37 %, from 424 to 451 in 10 hrs.

29 April 's Prediction

Breaking up 434.5 resistance, after 1100 hrs is important for further rise.

29 April 's Analysis

BTC went up to 442.7 level (1230 hrs), and is, just above 434 level. It

crossed 434 level, before 1100 hrs, just as predicted.


29 April 's Prediction

With the current uptrend, market should approach 455 level, by 1600 hrs.

29 April 's Analysis

Market went up to 454.4 (1130 hrs), which was within +/- 0.13 % of

yesterday’s predicted value.

30 April 's Analysis

After 1500 hrs, market has stopped it upsurge, and has been in a very small

range of 437 to 441.


30 April 's Analysis

Market went up to 454, but remained in a very small band 439 to 454.

30 April 's Prediction

With the current trend, market should approach 455 level, by 2200 hrs,

1 May 2014.


1 May 's Analysis
Market went up to 453.5 level (within +/- 0.33 % of the value predicted on

30 April 2014), around 1800 hrs.



30 April 's Prediction

With the current trend, BTC would approach 465 level, around 2000 hrs,

1 May 2014.


1 May 's Analysis

Market broke 455 level resistance, around 1200 hrs, and went up to 465

level (1630 hrs), just as predicted on 30 April.

2 May 's Analysis

Bitcoin remained largely below 440 level, after the spike, which brought, price

down to 429 level, around 0500 hrs




2 May 's Analysis

After 1400 hrs, resistance has come down to 444 level.

3 May 's Analysis

BTC went down to 421 level, then jumped to 434 level in 2 hrs.

Day Low – 421.5 (2030 hrs)

Day High – 434 (2200 hrs)




3 May 's Analysis

Market went down to 431 (1900 hrs), with the continued downtrend, since, 1 May.

4 May 's Analysis

Bitcoin could not move above 434 resistance.

Day High – 434.9 (0430 hrs)



4 May 's Prediction

BTC needs to move above 445 level, after 1700 hrs, to be stable.

4 May 's Analysis

BTC came to 445 level (0100 hrs, 5 May), just as predicted yesterday.

Market touched 430 level (0630 & 1200 hrs), after 1200 hrs, price began

rising, from 430 to 445 level.

5-6 's Analysis

BTC went down to 411 level, but largely remained above 418 resistance band.

The staleness in BTC market is obvious now. The only movement that happened

was around 0500 hrs to 0730 hrs on 6 May 2014.

High – 428 (0730 hrs, 6 May)

Low – 411 (0500 hrs, 6 May)



5 May 's Prediction

Volume increase is insignificant, and shows the indecision of the market.

5-6 May 's Analysis

After 0700 hrs, BTC has largely moved in between 434 to 429 band.

Indecision of market is prevailing, as predicted on 5 May 2014.

Low : 420 (0400 hrs, 6 May)

High : 438 (1530 hrs, 5 May)

7 May 's Analysis

BTC reached 430 level, and went beyond it. This rise happened after 0830 hrs.

Day High – 437 (1530 hrs, 7 May)

Day Low – 416.5 (0800 hrs, 7 May)



7 May 's Prediction

Moving above 436, can lead to 440 level.


7 May 's Analysis

BTC crossed up 436 level, and reached 452 level, as predicted yesterday. This rise

happened after 0730 hrs.

Day High : 452 (1630 hrs, 7 May)

8 May 's Prediction

BTC is about to cross below 426.7 resistance, after 0600 hrs, and, is
 
on the track to reach again 420 level. Heavy resistance is acting at

432.8 level.

8 May 's Analysis

Resistance of 432.8 has worked, as market remained largely below it.

Support of 426.7, was not broken, and has worked exactly as predicted

yesterday.

Day High – 436 (0930 hrs)

Day Low – 426.8 (2130 hrs)



8 May 's Prediction

Market should be above 437, after 2000 hrs, to sustain this rise. If 453

resistance is broken, then bitcoin could rise to 461 level.


8 May 's Analysis

BTC could not cross 453 resistance, and has moved down. After 2330 hrs,

support of 437 seems to have worked.

Day High : 450 (0830 hrs and 1500 hrs)

9 May 's Prediction

Resistance band of 432.5 to 434.5 has become a major hurdle for bitcoin.


9-10 May 's Analysis

Resistance hurdle of 434, was broken by a sharp jump around 1500 hrs,

9 May. But it seems like, resistance at 445 is working.



8 May 's Prediction

Market should be above 437, after 2000 hrs, to sustain this rise. If 453

resistance is broken, then bitcoin could rise to 461 level.


9-10 May 's Analysis

BTC has been continuously rising, since 420 level (6 May 2014). Around

1400 hrs, resistance band of 400 to 445 was broken, and market is heading

to the target of 461, as predicted on 8 May.

11 May 's Analysis

There was a sudden fall from 443 level (0600 hrs) to 426 level (1700 hrs).

Day Low – 426 (1700 hrs)



11 May 's Analysis

There was a sudden fall from 455 level (0600 hrs) to 429 level (1600 hrs).

Day Low – 429 (1600 hrs)

12 May 's Prediction

Market has a chance to cross 436 resistance, around 1500 hrs, which

would take it to a higher level.


12 May 's Analysis

Market largely remained below 436 resistance, and is still restricted by it.

Day High – 437 (1700 hrs)



11 May 's Prediction

Any fall here, would be supported by 443 level.


12 May 's Prediction

Falling below 438 before 2200 hrs, can lead to further fall to lower levels.


12 May 's Analysis

After 0830 hrs, market remained above 438 and avoided falling below 443 level,

(given on 11 May report), which acted as resistance.