xPredict™ - Multi exchange Prediction Service Result

[arepo]

If the price goes below 716 level for more than 1 hour, then it could fall down to 712 level, within next 12 hrs.

If the support at 712 is broken,then could slide down to 690 level.

agreed. we need a high-volume recovery soon or else the picture turns bearish.

[skivrmt]

But how much significance is it that it's a holiday season with relatively low volume with these upward and downward predictions?  With low volume charting has something less significance, no?   

Great analysis though of the rolling inflection points.

[arepo]

But how much significance is it that it's a holiday season with relatively low volume with these upward and downward predictions?  With low volume charting has something less significance, no?  

Great analysis though of the rolling inflection points.

thanks for the feedback

the low volume is also because we are in the final stages of consolidation before the next market decision. the price is trapped within a relatively small range and most participants are comfortable with their current position and are waiting for a signal outside of the present channel before taking an action.

further, many indicators take volume into consideration, although none of the ones feature in the post i linked really do. this is not necessarily a weakness though, because they are designed to function independent of volume.

worst case here, is that the holiday slump and low volume draw out the consolidation a little longer than expected, as the price will need some serious energy to break out of this channel. i'll have to look back at some of my past work, but from my knowledge of how they are calculated, the directionality of the indicators i used should not be invalidated by low volume.

--arepo

[spndr7]

But how much significance is it that it's a holiday season with relatively low volume with these upward and downward predictions?  With low volume charting has something less significance, no?  

Great analysis though of the rolling inflection points.

thanks for the feedback

the low volume is also because we are in the final stages of consolidation before the next market decision. the price is trapped within a relatively small range and most participants are comfortable with their current position and are waiting for a signal outside of the present channel before taking an action.

further, many indicators take volume into consideration, although none of the ones feature in the post i linked really do. this is not necessarily a weakness though, because they are designed to function independent of volume.

worst case here, is that the holiday slump and low volume draw out the consolidation a little longer than expected, as the price will need some serious energy to break out of this channel. i'll have to look back at some of my past work, but from my knowledge of how they are calculated, the directionality of the indicators i used should not be invalidated by low volume.

--arepo

Very low/ high volumes fail most indicators.


Today's trend
Trading will be in a small band from 721.6 to 737 at least for next 9 hours.

[arepo]

Very low/ high volumes fail most indicators.

creating noise in indicator data and invalidating indicator data are two different creatures.

[kwoody]

Volume and price remain relatively stable over the last week, yet the total market cap for BTC economy has increased over $1billion USD during that time. This makes me think we're going to see a rally and subsequent price increase.

[wobber]

Volume and price remain relatively stable over the last week, yet the total market cap for BTC economy has increased over $1billion USD during that time. This makes me think we're going to see a rally and subsequent price increase.

in what way is the market cap relevant? no way 1 BLN USD got into BTC during last week. It's based purely on speculative price rise.

[skivrmt]

But how much significance is it that it's a holiday season with relatively low volume with these upward and downward predictions?  With low volume charting has something less significance, no?  

Great analysis though of the rolling inflection points.

thanks for the feedback

the low volume is also because we are in the final stages of consolidation before the <b>next market decision</b>. the price is trapped within a relatively small range and most participants are comfortable with their current position and are waiting for a signal outside of the present channel before taking an action.

further, many indicators take volume into consideration, although none of the ones feature in the post i linked really do. this is not necessarily a weakness though, because they are designed to function independent of volume.

worst case here, is that the holiday slump and low volume draw out the consolidation a little longer than expected, as the price will need some serious energy to break out of this channel. i'll have to look back at some of my past work, but from my knowledge of how they are calculated, the directionality of the indicators i used should not be invalidated by low volume.

--arepo

I think "the next market" after the final stages started.  Heck of a "predication".  I don't get impressed easily.  I am impressed.

Can you list 7 random numbers for me all under 75?

[spndr7]

Long term perspective from now:

Market would trade between 623 to 778 band till January 9,2014 (if any extreme news doesn't come in this period),although there is chance of break of this upper-band in next 5 days .

Today's signal

It seems like market has woken up on 6th day from that prediction.

If market closes above 774 level today, than that will reverse the downtrend continuing since 16 december 2013 (market was at 792 level).
If market surges past the today's resistance band of 774 to 778, then will have chance to reach to 960 level within next 6 days from now.

[Cryddit]

I'm seeing up indicators, especially on Gox. 

With Mt.Gox showing $860 right now, I expect the Bitstamp prices to ramp up as arbitragers even things out.

The sharp rise at Gox also indicates to me some fairly substantial uptake of Bitcoin in Japan -- shortly after geographically close China took its money transmitter businesses out of Bitcoin.  So I'm saying, 'hmmmmmm' and speculating that possibly some unknown channel is now satisfying Chinese demand for Bitcoins via Japan.

It's just speculation where the demand is coming from, but if it is Chinese demand, it's surprising; I'd have expected the limits on trading BTC in China to make it less desirable to Chinese. 

Then again, if you think Americans are distrusting and cynical of their government you haven't talked to very many Chinese people.  The demand for Bitcoin could be a 'vote of no confidence' in the Yuan and the Chinese government's ability to manage their economy. Of course that's even more speculation to justify the first bit of speculation, so I'm either really insightful or really off in the weeds.

[Honeypot]

Long term perspective from now:

Market would trade between 623 to 778 band till January 9,2014 (if any extreme news doesn't come in this period),although there is chance of break of this upper-band in next 5 days .

Today's signal

It seems like market has woken up on 6th day from that prediction.

If market closes above 774 level today, than that will reverse the downtrend continuing since 16 december 2013 (market was at 792 level).
Market surges past the today's resistance band of 774 to 778, then will have chance to reach to 960 level within next 6 days from now.

In your opinion, what is the chance of a final big crash to 600, 500 levels happening within this month before the stabilization of price?

[spndr7]

In your opinion, what is the chance of a final big crash to 600, 500 levels happening within this month before the stabilization of price?

Its will be highly improbable of any fall this month,if market remains above 775 level till 5 jan, although there is a small window for falling below/to 648 level around 20-21 january 2014.

[arepo]

In your opinion, what is the chance of a final big crash to 600, 500 levels happening within this month before the stabilization of price?

Its will be highly improbable of any fall this month,if market remains above 775 level till 5 jan, although there is a small window for falling below/to 648 level around 20-21 january 2014.

my models similarly predict another high-volume capitulation in about 3 weeks.

[T.Stuart]

In your opinion, what is the chance of a final big crash to 600, 500 levels happening within this month before the stabilization of price?

Its will be highly improbable of any fall this month,if market remains above 775 level till 5 jan, although there is a small window for falling below/to 648 level around 20-21 january 2014.

my models similarly predict another high-volume capitulation in about 3 weeks.

Can I ask, do your models cater for the virality that Bitcoin is imbued with now? Do they cater for the Hodl philosophy (no joke!). Is it possible in your opinions as analysts accurately to incorporate these elements?

[spndr7]

Market may trade in narrow band of 780 to 805, until upper breakout(as described in the previous post) doesn't happen,.

[arepo]

In your opinion, what is the chance of a final big crash to 600, 500 levels happening within this month before the stabilization of price?

Its will be highly improbable of any fall this month,if market remains above 775 level till 5 jan, although there is a small window for falling below/to 648 level around 20-21 january 2014.

my models similarly predict another high-volume capitulation in about 3 weeks.

Can I ask, do your models cater for the virality that Bitcoin is imbued with now? Do they cater for the Hodl philosophy (no joke!). Is it possible in your opinions as analysts accurately to incorporate these elements?

can you imagine an empirical method to quantify the effects of these things on the price?

unfortunately, it is difficult to say exactly how (and when!) these things will affect price, and so it is easiest just to rely on the information that is already priced in, which (under the efficient market hypothesis) should be all of it, but in reality is at least most of it. in this way, direct price analysis already accounts for the effects of the factors you mentioned.

--arepo

[spndr7]

we will stay in the 780-805 range until we break to the upside

This one is correct.

[MrPalmer]

we will stay in the 780-805 range until we break to the upside

This one is correct.

Thank you for the thread and predictions, sir.  Been reading it for a while, and appreciate your input.  Hoping you're right about the upper breakout!

[T.Stuart]

In your opinion, what is the chance of a final big crash to 600, 500 levels happening within this month before the stabilization of price?

Its will be highly improbable of any fall this month,if market remains above 775 level till 5 jan, although there is a small window for falling below/to 648 level around 20-21 january 2014.

my models similarly predict another high-volume capitulation in about 3 weeks.

Erm... excuse me but are you really trying to tell us that you can predict that in 3 weeks from now there is going to be a high-volume dumping session? Come on, that's stretching it much too far. No amount of analysis can tell you that in this market.

But I suppose 3 weeks does give you quite a long period of time in which to hope for some kind of downtrend (although I have a strong sneaking suspicion the "final capitulation" scenario some buyers are waiting for is never going to happen).

[arepo]

In your opinion, what is the chance of a final big crash to 600, 500 levels happening within this month before the stabilization of price?

Its will be highly improbable of any fall this month,if market remains above 775 level till 5 jan, although there is a small window for falling below/to 648 level around 20-21 january 2014.

my models similarly predict another high-volume capitulation in about 3 weeks.

Erm... excuse me but are you really trying to tell us that you can predict that in 3 weeks from now there is going to be a high-volume dumping session? Come on, that's stretching it much too far. No amount of analysis can tell you that in this market.

But I suppose 3 weeks does give you quite a long period of time in which to hope for some kind of downtrend (although I have a strong sneaking suspicion the "final capitulation" scenario some buyers are waiting for is never going to happen).

you'd be surprised. i would post the models but im afraid i would be giving away far too much information.

--arepo

hint: the price function is self-similar on all scales like a fractal. zoom out and apply the same methods you do to make short-term calls, and voila! is that really a strange concept?