Bitcoin Forum

More and more am I starting to believe that BTCChina is (for a large part) fake.

- Their volume reports are ridiculous. On the 3 minute chart they have almost exclusively 300 btc per candlestick.
- The whole rise-up at BTC-China seems orchestrated. Every sharp rise is nicely crafted into a short dip which then recovers in order to make others believe that it's safe to buy

And most compellingly

- During the crash the volume stays _THE SAME_ throughout. There is a sharp drop, but no panic selling at all! The volume is constant. This does not make any sense to me.
- Notice how every downward candle towards is also attempted to be caugt immediately - many many intermittent recoveries during a crash. It just doesn't make sense.
- I think we all agree that the price movements at BTCChina have been absolutely ridiculous.

It's almost as if the whole exchange is scripted to make fake orders to amplify any movements seen on Gox. Zero trading fees would allow this.

What would they benefit from this?

Manipulation. This whole rally is based upon "China is going crazy, we must buy asap!". Knowing that the bitcoin world classifies exchanges by price and volume, you can manipulate the entire market by gaining the highest price and the highest volume. This does not mean the trades have to be legitimate as well, as long as the data you're outputting is somewhat believable. The rally on china seemed so ridiculous, that I'd be inclined to think that BTCChina's CEO has some big money at the other exchanges, trading it for high prices as he indirectly has control over the market.


Added facts:

- Nobody seems to be able to access btcchina.com, yet trades are still being executed (do reply if you can reach and deposit BTC)
- During the 7-8 hour Gox trading engine lag, BTCChina ground to a halt as well while BTC-e and Bitstamp continued to have organic trades (though lower average volume).
- Look at this recent crash graph from BTCChina (linked from another topic). It does not look organic, yet highly artificial.

http://i40.tinypic.com/az8d9t.png



Please discuss :D Also, === I'm merely speculating ==

Chinese always used things in other ways than intended. See gunpowder for example, they were using it for fireworks until the rest of the world started to use it for guns. LOL   ::)

When you post a picture of the 1 minute chart, yeah things might look a little off.

Also the rally/slight dip pattern you're seeing is normal... called a bear trap. On the way down it's a bull trap.

bears will stop at nothing these days

The point I wanted to make is that stock exchanges never make perfect semicircles. If you watch the same periods at BTC-e and Bitstamp for example, the pattern is way more frizzly, more noisy. This one is just perfectly orchestrated. Now i know Chinese have a-diciprine and all, but this just does not look human/organic.

and they rely on third party site to make their theories.

I was able to connect to btcchina the whole time.

Also, there is not just BTCChina in China, there are several sites with similar volume.

Why aren't they on bitcoincharts?

Stop spreading your FUD everywhere. There might be some powerful speculators there, but accusing the CEO of market manipulation is really stupid.

btcchina will probably keep their place as the biggest exchange for a while, they also got 5 million usd in funding recently.

is this a serious question? wow.....

You are underestimating the power of randomness.

Recommended reading: http://www.amazon.com/Fooled-Randomness-Hidden-Chance-Markets/dp/0812975219

With no fees, the algorithms used in bots will tend towards smooth curves.

Maybe because, they don't care enough to provide data to a site that their customers never used?

This isn't a stock exchange. Bitcoin is not a stock. Stop trying to make it conform to stock rules, trends, and predictions.

All you stock guys do the same nonsense. You come here, you lecture everyone on how stocks behave, you imply that everyone here's an idiot, you make ridiculous claims, absurd predictions, you declare crashes are on the way, and none of you have ever been correct, even once.

Please stick to what you know. Trading stocks. Stop wracking your brain over Bitcoin. This is something completely new. You are not an expert on this. Nobody is.

maybe (just maybe) those gaps, clippings and "perfect semicircles" were caused by bots... maybe the whole bubble is being caused by bots, specially when there is no fee :) who knows!

but anyway, if OP really believes the price is being manipulated you may buy and make some profits, right? forget morality! ;)

+1

don't be facetious, please enlighten the unenlightened.

What??  The Chinese are capable of lying, cheating and/or stealing?

Anyone who has dealt with the Chinese, knows.

Thank you, Boxman90, for reminding us who we are dealing with....

I trade on BCT China. No problems there. I am not in China and am not a Chinese citizen. I can deposit, trade, and withdraw. No problems. From my own experience with them, they have superb customer service.

I think you're seeing things that aren't there.

Funny. I've had the same problems dealing with people in other places of the world as well. They didn't appear to be Chinese... Maybe they had plastic surgery? Meh... who knows?

The main problem with this specific argument is: if they are faking volume why aren't they faking volume increases on crashes as well?

I can believe that someone is manipulating the market, but I can't understand why they would...

Why not?

I cannot reach btcchina, I keep getting the ddos service message.

Anyone else having this problem? I am becoming concerned, since I have funds there.

profit :D that is why

How???, I emailed them last week and they told me that I had to have a mainland China bank account in order to register.

How do you get money in and out of their exchange? Advice on this matter? Thanks.

Works fine for me. I'm Australian and I've done day trading on BTCChina. No problems at all with depositing or withdrawing.

I think this is all crap for one main reason: the CEO of BTCChina is the ex-CEO of Walmart. It's not just some random inputs.io scammer.

How are you depositing and withdrawing there?

one thing I have observed is the Chinese buyer seems to refuse to sell property for less than they purchased it regardless.

I think this may translate into BTC.

I am not sure if BTCChina is fake, but it's going down, and for now Gox is not following (but may follow soon).

I deposited BTC, not $/¥. Did a bit of trading then ran off with my profits before I fucked up and made a mistake.

That's garbage, that'd imply their stock markets would only go up, never down.

look your right with stocks, but property, I have yet to see that fall, it just levels out or falls a really little bit for a while then climbs again.

try using https://btcchina.com  it should redirect to https://vip.btcchina.com/

Sounds great to me!  Keep buying high, my Chinese friends!  :)

BTCChina is real -- all the exchanges are "real" now.

However, is the volume largely people already in the game doing a big circlejerk, or is it really newcomers? And how much of the price rise can be attributed to them?

Not sure if this is true or not but this makes sense.
If you have the biggest volume, you can drive the price, wich can lead a rogue admin to do this kind of scam.
Now the sr, baidu and senate thing is real so...

That being sayed the evidences are weak...

http://techcrunch.com/2013/11/18/btc-china-series-a/

So its 3 guys in a garage? lol ... Just kidding.


Rock on btcchina, rock on..

 

i always had a bad feeling about this

i highly doubt this, BTCChina's ownership is very legit and reliable. They are very serious about their business unlike mtgox

Dude, you forgot the image!!!

http://images.sodahead.com/polls/003499799/262326544_conspiracy_answer_2_xlarge.jpeg

I don't know why everyone is defending BTCChina when they are new, and no one knows much about them...

soo because they are new we have to assume they don't exist ... okay ...

WAIT a minute...  :o

https://i.imgur.com/hWMioWv.jpg

After reading charts for years, I would have to agree.  The tops don't look typical in this chart.

Why that is though?  Anyone's guess.

Even so, this bubble was easy to spot... and easy to profit from.

Thank God for China :)

EDIT:  BTW a fully decentralized exchange system would make any kind of manipulation you postulate infinitely harder.  We need a decentralized exchange.

Checkout Invictus Innovations.  Through them a few bones if you can.  They are working on stuff that, more then anything else I've seen, are laying the groundwork for the decentralized exchange and technical infrastructure that will lead to mass adoption we are all craving for.

Chinese exchanges still going strong.. some exchanges still trading above $800. The rest of the world is refusing to believe bitcoin is worth so much... meanwhile potential massive chance to make money for those who are willing to sell coins on those sites. Is it the Chinese who didn't get the memo, or is it us? We will see soon enough.

http://btckan.com/price

If there's one thing the Chinese have demonstrated over and again, it's that they don't need anyone else to party-hardcore. 

Where are these volume #s coming from? Seems insanely high for some unknown exchanges. Is it because they have zero fees?

I believe this question, along with "why such a high price in China", is the basis of the aforementioned conspiracy theory.
I don't think there's a conspiracy, and I do think there's a bitcoin frenzy in China. Somebody at some point is likely to take advantage of it and collect a lot of Yuan.

these bit coins, how do they taste?

%s/the chinese/people/

srsly, don't be a dick.

LOL

They get 5 million in venture capital for not existing.

Great theory OP, see you in the psychiatric ward!

I posted yesterday that I have a paper coming out that proves not only BTC-C, but all major exchanges are engaged in creating a completely fictitious market. I have contacted the exchanges I have investigated for comment prior to publishing.

Nice move BTCChina, bravo!  :)

but one must admit that the chart looks very smooth.

All major chinese exchanges, or all major exchanges period? Which exchanges did you investigate? Do you have any info that you can share with us now?

You know, I do find it odd that the Chinese state hasn't been inclined to place any restrictions upon Bitcoin (the most subversive technology on the planet (http://youtu.be/ZMhEIzAmYGk)) when they go to particularly extensive lengths to restrict pretty much everything else (http://www.ted.com/talks/michael_anti_behind_the_great_firewall_of_china.html).  Maybe they just dropped the ball on this one, and recognise it's not really the sort that's easy to pick back up and take away, or maybe they got eyes on this early on and, while our western-dictorcrats spent all year unhelpfully dicking about with how to most regulate & adulterate Bitcoin, maybe they saw an opportunity for the taking; I wonder.

[edit; typo & I'll be looking for your report about this proof you've got + the exchanges responses (I trust you've got hold of gox staff straight away on irc, no? MagicalTux weighed in with a word?]

As I said in the other thread, I can ALWAYS sell at those insane high price and get the CNY in my account within 24 hours. So the price is REAL. The volume is inflated simply due to free transaction.

Their site may be down from time to time, but that's nothing worse than gox or stamp

In addition to btcchina, I can also sell on other Chinese exchanges with similar price and received CNY withdraw too.

Maybe they are just fu**ing smarter than you. Maybe they realize that this technology could be a hedge against their US debt holdings. Or perhaps they just want Bitcoin innovations to come from China vs. some other country. I mean, China wants power. When it comes to finances they are actually very forward thinking.

The paper focusses on  BTC-C and MtGox with data covering one month. The main manipulation is the use of false trades to move the market, there are also what I'm calling the run_up and run_down bots which work in conjunction with real trading action to move the price in whatever direction is desired by the exchange.

To get it out, just pull out bitcoins. It's very straight forward.

To put it in, just put in bitcoins.

You need to follow their procedures if you want to put in or pull out fiat. That, well, that's a different story. There are ways to do it, but you probably need to be in China for that.

How can Bitcoin be a hedge against the dollar when the dollar is the only reason Bitcoin has any value? Ask yourself what would happen to Bitcoin's price if it became impossible to convert it into the state fiat you all claim to despise? It would drop like a stone. Bitcoin needs the USD because that is where it derives its value.

No. The dollar is simply the path of least resistance to acquire bitcoin for many people. Bitcoin is valuable because it is useful to people. If what you are saying is true, then it would apply to everything that has a dollar market. I'm sure you don't think gold/oil/etc have value solely because they can convert to dollars.

You're really comparing the thing that fuels civilisation and a metal which has been highly desirable for millennia and is irreplaceable in many industries with some numbers?

Hmm; kinda lost as to how my intelligence quotient serves as any useful comparative, but you do articulate some lovely ideas.  I'm afraid I could never hope to match your aplomb.

Agreed. (emphasis mine)



And another agreed. (minus some of the language)

May I define a new term "ponzi exchange".

Dont know whether it has been said here before but look at it from that perspective:

There is a fierce competition going on down there right now: http://btckan.com/price

They all report their own volume and they all wanna become China's #1 exchange to dominate the BTC market, they already dropped all the fees, now how else can they get an edge over their competitors?
Correct, by suggesting they have the best liquidity. When you look at their order book depth u wonder how they can support those numbers. Some time ago there was an outrageous volume report by one of the smaller sites https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=309602.msg3323479#msg3323479 that had only a few thousand Bitcoins in its orderbook but reported 100k BTC on a daily basis, for days!

If no one is checking on you and you could produce your own volume with zero fee phantom transactions, wouldnt you do it if all your competition does it?

https://i.imgur.com/HL10KJt.png
from above cited thread, compare the reported volume and orderbook depth, this was not even the most outrageous report.

Pretty  apagogical argument here  ;D
But it seems you draw the wrong conclusion from it

It's a good proof of concept, but for now, what bitcoin is useful for? In the real world, I mean...

I ordered food for me and 11 friends online. Payed with a super easy to use Bitcoin app. While everyone was watching the transaction went trough in less then 3 seconds and the food was delivered half an hour later.
The food delivery company using BitPay probably payed a lot less in fees compared to the traditional methods we had before Bitcoin.

Everyone is happy. Me, my friends, the delivery company and BitPay.

I use BtcChina via QT-Trader via BtcChina API, works great for the most part,
but often, and I mean often the connection to the API goes down and the WebSite
is off-line at the same time.

Happen to me last night when I cashed out to Cash / Yuan and the problem did not correct itself
until the next morning, I cashed out at $50,000 Yuan, in the morning when their site came back
on-line the market had raised to $54,000 Yuan, I have been Up-Side Down all day waiting for the
market to either lower itself or make a few good trades to get the coin back I lost, I was at 10 BTC
when the BtChina site went off line, now at the current market rate I'm at 9.3 BTC, even with these
problems it's hard to leave because the trades are FREE, but I'm beginning to ask myself are they
really FREE with missed opportunity costs (a 400 Yuan rise), started out with BiFinex and never had
site down problems except for once, surprised to hear that MtGox and BitStamp also have these problems.

But I make BTC Deposits and BTC WithDrawals from BtcChina all day with Zero Problems.
I would not call them a Scam or Fake Company, and as previously mention it was started by the previous
head of Wal-Mart China, and his Brother has invented "LiteCoin", really don't think they have to steal from AnyOne,
those guys have enough CASH already !