Bitcoin Forum

People are getting into bitcoin because they believe it can go far and be used as a currency.
Whenever it crashes, people quickly buy back.
People aren't going to sell - they'll instead buy with bitcoin and save on tax fees/etc.
Thoughts?

Isn`t it a classic bear indicator when people start believing that a bubble isn`t going to crash anymore?

You`re right that some people believe bitcoin will keep rising and eventually be used as a legitimate currency. But most of those people are active on bitcointalk and reddit, and likely constitute a small fraction of total investors at this point. Most are just waiting for a healthy return, and once they feel the buy support shrinking or if some other catalyst comes along they will run for the exits. It will be a Chinese fire drill when that happens.

Your right, paying taxes is so disgusting I dont ever consider converting Bitcoin to cash. I preffer slow spending instead

Ehhh... :\

Also some people believe it can go far but can take several price dips on the way up; so they try to use that opportunity to increase their Bitcoin holdings.

True, some wins BTC, some looses BTC along the road.

Famous last words.  A bear market will come but the question is from what level.  1250, 5000, 10000, 100000.  An 80% decline from 10000 is 2000, higher than the current price.  A 90% decline from 100000 is 10000, almost 10x the current price.

Wrong , its a bubble and it will burst , it is a simple mechanism of domino effect , at some point - i guess between 1000 and 2000 - some will sell right or buying pressure will ease that's for sure so price will drop a bit but who bought at higher prices will start to panic and sell and so on , so a normal healthy correction will turn into a selloff ... currently we're in the delusion greed phase , dont want to sell , prices is going to 1 million , 1K is the floor ... etc its a classic bubble .

http://thevictoryreport.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/Bubble_Phases1.jpg

You do not know at what point on the curve we are now. These graphs look for nice viewing after the crash.

We'r at the quite beginning of phase 2.

Also, this curve ends at a lower lever than where it started. It could also end flat at the top or at zero.

Yes, last time it did not go below the initial.

I agree, might be Enthusiasm phase right after Media attention phase instead.

Of course, if we are in the `delusion` phase, nobody is going to admit that. It is the delusion phase, after all.

Lol!
Bitcoin will crash so hard, It'll make women drivers look good.
 :D :D :D :D

Lol!
Bitcoin will crash so hard, It'll make windows blue screen of death look good.
 :D :D :D :D

I like the way you think
 :D :D :D :D

If I had a bitcoin for every time I've seen this graph....  ::)

Yup.

I would have said it applied back in April 2013 and also early November 2013, yet now look where we are.

One day, I do believe that this graph will apply, and the bears will be able to say 'I told you so', but it is a question of where.

If Bitcoin can hit 10K before hitting the 'New Paradigm' phase, then even this late on, Btc is still an investment opportunity of a lifetime.

Best thing anyone can do is remain open to all possibilities. For this reason, I prefer reading bearish threads on here as all the hubris and pompous declarations of Bitcoin going to a bazillion aren't good for the mental attitude.

The less a person buys into delusional paradigms, the less likely he will be to have his illusions shattered.

if everybody kept thinking what they wanted to (that BTC is going to rise rise rise) then that would be self-fulfilling prophecy.. at least to a point where big time holders can't take the heat anymore and bow out.

it seems like we are in the mania phase of that graph.. but are we at enthusiasm or greed?

No matter how many delusional bears post it, it is not getting any smarter. It never - hear me - not once - was even remotely correct in bitcoin world. Each of the "crashes" ended up higher than the previous top and much higher than the runup to the crash. So, in terms of that silly graph, *all* of bitcoin corrections were bear traps. Each and every one of them.

are you sure about your statement? it ended up lower than its starting point in 2011. so yeah, before you call bears delusional, you should really check the facts. how many booms have we had, about 3? well, your statement doesn't fit with 1 of them, but it does with the other. so far you're 50%.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zczsg2011-06-04zeg2011-06-13ztgSzm1g10zm2g25

+1 , nearly 100 fold from the beginning of the year and still not enough ! so if anyone was holding $2k worth of coins now its worth around 200k how is that not greedy ?! price will revert to the mean takes time though and it may stretch to the upside a bit before the selloff , but there is a big difference between 1200 and 32 its not the same ...

i dont think it will crash, apart from little bumps up and down..it gettin more and more popular..

Thats the whole idea of the public phase , and getting popular doesnt mean its worth 1200 or whatever , we shall see anyway .

The time period you chose is a bounce during the correction following 32.  It was not the start of a new rally.  Try backing up the start date a bit.  The rally started at $1, hit $32, and then bottomed at $2.

Yeah I'm absolutely positive about what I say, while you aren't. I was there when it happened, the actual rally started after breaking $1, and decline ended in a year at about $2. The local crash to $10 was after a runup from $4.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zczsg2011-04-01zeg2011-06-13ztgSzm1g10zm2g25