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Author Topic: Why bitcoin isn't going to crash  (Read 3015 times)
whiskers75 (OP)
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November 28, 2013, 05:19:11 PM
 #1

People are getting into bitcoin because they believe it can go far and be used as a currency.
Whenever it crashes, people quickly buy back.
People aren't going to sell - they'll instead buy with bitcoin and save on tax fees/etc.
Thoughts?

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kireinaha
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November 28, 2013, 05:27:12 PM
 #2

Isn`t it a classic bear indicator when people start believing that a bubble isn`t going to crash anymore?

You`re right that some people believe bitcoin will keep rising and eventually be used as a legitimate currency. But most of those people are active on bitcointalk and reddit, and likely constitute a small fraction of total investors at this point. Most are just waiting for a healthy return, and once they feel the buy support shrinking or if some other catalyst comes along they will run for the exits. It will be a Chinese fire drill when that happens.

Night gathers, and now my bitcoinwisdom watch begins.
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November 28, 2013, 05:30:43 PM
 #3

People aren't going to sell - they'll instead buy with bitcoin and save on tax fees/etc.
Thoughts?

Your right, paying taxes is so disgusting I dont ever consider converting Bitcoin to cash. I preffer slow spending instead
whiskers75 (OP)
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November 28, 2013, 05:47:58 PM
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Isn`t it a classic bear indicator when people start believing that a bubble isn`t going to crash anymore?

You`re right that some people believe bitcoin will keep rising and eventually be used as a legitimate currency. But most of those people are active on bitcointalk and reddit, and likely constitute a small fraction of total investors at this point. Most are just waiting for a healthy return, and once they feel the buy support shrinking or if some other catalyst comes along they will run for the exits. It will be a Chinese fire drill when that happens.
Ehhh... :\

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November 28, 2013, 06:07:42 PM
 #5

Also some people believe it can go far but can take several price dips on the way up; so they try to use that opportunity to increase their Bitcoin holdings.

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November 28, 2013, 06:12:16 PM
 #6

Also some people believe it can go far but can take several price dips on the way up; so they try to use that opportunity to increase their Bitcoin holdings.

True, some wins BTC, some looses BTC along the road.
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November 28, 2013, 06:40:19 PM
 #7

Famous last words.  A bear market will come but the question is from what level.  1250, 5000, 10000, 100000.  An 80% decline from 10000 is 2000, higher than the current price.  A 90% decline from 100000 is 10000, almost 10x the current price.

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November 28, 2013, 08:55:14 PM
 #8

People are getting into bitcoin because they believe it can go far and be used as a currency.
Whenever it crashes, people quickly buy back.
People aren't going to sell - they'll instead buy with bitcoin and save on tax fees/etc.
Thoughts?

Wrong , its a bubble and it will burst , it is a simple mechanism of domino effect , at some point - i guess between 1000 and 2000 - some will sell right or buying pressure will ease that's for sure so price will drop a bit but who bought at higher prices will start to panic and sell and so on , so a normal healthy correction will turn into a selloff ... currently we're in the delusion greed phase , dont want to sell , prices is going to 1 million , 1K is the floor ... etc its a classic bubble .

http://thevictoryreport.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/Bubble_Phases1.jpg
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November 28, 2013, 09:03:58 PM
 #9

People are getting into bitcoin because they believe it can go far and be used as a currency.
Whenever it crashes, people quickly buy back.
People aren't going to sell - they'll instead buy with bitcoin and save on tax fees/etc.
Thoughts?

Wrong , its a bubble and it will burst , it is a simple mechanism of domino effect , at some point - i guess between 1000 and 2000 - some will sell right or buying pressure will ease that's for sure so price will drop a bit but who bought at higher prices will start to panic and sell and so on , so a normal healthy correction will turn into a selloff ... currently we're in the delusion greed phase , dont want to sell , prices is going to 1 million , 1K is the floor ... etc its a classic bubble .



You do not know at what point on the curve we are now. These graphs look for nice viewing after the crash.
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November 28, 2013, 09:06:14 PM
 #10

We'r at the quite beginning of phase 2.
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November 28, 2013, 09:09:09 PM
 #11

You do not know at what point on the curve we are now. These graphs look for nice viewing after the crash.
Also, this curve ends at a lower lever than where it started. It could also end flat at the top or at zero.
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November 28, 2013, 09:10:48 PM
 #12

You do not know at what point on the curve we are now. These graphs look for nice viewing after the crash.
Also, this curve ends at a lower lever than where it started. It could also end flat at the top or at zero.

Yes, last time it did not go below the initial.
nerFohanzo
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November 28, 2013, 09:25:08 PM
 #13


You do not know at what point on the curve we are now. These graphs look for nice viewing after the crash.


I agree, might be Enthusiasm phase right after Media attention phase instead.
kireinaha
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November 29, 2013, 03:25:11 AM
 #14

Of course, if we are in the `delusion` phase, nobody is going to admit that. It is the delusion phase, after all.

Night gathers, and now my bitcoinwisdom watch begins.
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November 29, 2013, 03:30:07 AM
 #15

Lol!
Bitcoin will crash so hard, It'll make women drivers look good.
 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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November 29, 2013, 03:51:23 AM
 #16

Lol!
Bitcoin will crash so hard, It'll make windows blue screen of death look good.
 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

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November 29, 2013, 04:10:42 AM
 #17

Lol!
Bitcoin will crash so hard, It'll make windows blue screen of death look good.
 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

I like the way you think
 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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November 29, 2013, 04:38:29 AM
 #18

People are getting into bitcoin because they believe it can go far and be used as a currency.
Whenever it crashes, people quickly buy back.
People aren't going to sell - they'll instead buy with bitcoin and save on tax fees/etc.
Thoughts?

Wrong , its a bubble and it will burst , it is a simple mechanism of domino effect , at some point - i guess between 1000 and 2000 - some will sell right or buying pressure will ease that's for sure so price will drop a bit but who bought at higher prices will start to panic and sell and so on , so a normal healthy correction will turn into a selloff ... currently we're in the delusion greed phase , dont want to sell , prices is going to 1 million , 1K is the floor ... etc its a classic bubble .



If I had a bitcoin for every time I've seen this graph....  Roll Eyes

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MatTheCat
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November 29, 2013, 04:52:20 AM
 #19




If I had a bitcoin for every time I've seen this graph....  Roll Eyes


Yup.

I would have said it applied back in April 2013 and also early November 2013, yet now look where we are.

One day, I do believe that this graph will apply, and the bears will be able to say 'I told you so', but it is a question of where.

If Bitcoin can hit 10K before hitting the 'New Paradigm' phase, then even this late on, Btc is still an investment opportunity of a lifetime.

Best thing anyone can do is remain open to all possibilities. For this reason, I prefer reading bearish threads on here as all the hubris and pompous declarations of Bitcoin going to a bazillion aren't good for the mental attitude.

The less a person buys into delusional paradigms, the less likely he will be to have his illusions shattered.

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November 29, 2013, 05:00:07 AM
 #20

if everybody kept thinking what they wanted to (that BTC is going to rise rise rise) then that would be self-fulfilling prophecy.. at least to a point where big time holders can't take the heat anymore and bow out.

it seems like we are in the mania phase of that graph.. but are we at enthusiasm or greed?
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