Bitcoin Forum

Economy => Speculation => Topic started by: pekv2 on August 07, 2011, 06:35:11 AM



Title: Hold your horses.
Post by: pekv2 on August 07, 2011, 06:35:11 AM
Ionno, I have a gut feeling bitcoin will sky rocket.


Title: Re: Hold your horses.
Post by: GeniuSxBoY on August 07, 2011, 06:36:46 AM
There is one man in control of the market.


I refer to him as "The bot"


Title: Re: Hold your horses.
Post by: Oldminer on August 07, 2011, 06:42:47 AM
Ionno, I have a gut feeling bitcoin will sky rocket.

So do I. I've always held that view. We aint seen nothing yet.


Title: Re: Hold your horses.
Post by: GeniuSxBoY on August 07, 2011, 06:54:49 AM
The bot guy is playing with you. He makes it go up and down, It looks like someone is buying a ton of btc, but he's not buying hardly any at all.


Example:

If the highest bid is $6.
And the lowest ask is $7.
You can place a 100 btc bid.
You can place a 100 btc ask at the same time.

What happens when you place an order for $7.01?
It APPEARS as if someone bought 100 btc at $7. In reality, there is no trade at all.




Imagine having a bot place bids and asks up and down the number line as other people spend a lot of money or sell a lot btc. It appears like there are a lot of orders on the market but you know their his because humans can't place bids that fast after a huge upswing! \\\\

He is using a random number generator and taking that number and adding/subtracting it from a prime or root number (whatever mathematical equation he designed) and making a spread. The numbers are placed in symmetric pattern from low to high to low.

You can tell when he is manipulating the market because thousands of trades will be made but the VOLUME HARDLY MOVES.



Title: Re: Hold your horses.
Post by: Bitcoin Swami on August 07, 2011, 07:01:40 AM
The bot guy is playing with you. He makes it go up and down, It looks like someone is buying a ton of btc, but he's not buying hardly any at all.


Example:

If the highest bid is $6.
And the lowest ask is $7.
You can place a 100 btc bid.
You can place a 100 btc ask at the same time.

What happens when you place an order for $7.01?
It APPEARS as if someone bought 100 btc at $7. In reality, there is no trade at all.




Imagine having a bot place bids and asks up and down the number line as other people spend a lot of money or sell a lot btc. It appears like there are a lot of orders on the market but you know their his because humans can't place bids that fast after a huge upswing! \\\\

He is using a random number generator and taking that number and adding/subtracting it from a prime or root number (whatever mathematical equation he designed) and making a spread. The numbers are placed in symmetric pattern from low to high to low.

You can tell when he is manipulating the market because thousands of trades will be made but the VOLUME HARDLY MOVES.



You seem to be the only one on this board who's paranoid about bots.  Do you have nightmares?


Title: Re: Hold your horses.
Post by: pekv2 on August 07, 2011, 07:03:49 AM
The guy that makes the comics here, should create a new comic of a character dreaming of bots in some way. Reading above made me laugh, thinking about the idea.


Title: Re: Hold your horses.
Post by: piramida on August 07, 2011, 07:05:18 AM
yeah people often get crazy staring at the charts for days. when you see something moving while you are just staring, you start suspecting there's some mechanical being moving the price around :) poor crazies.


Title: Re: Hold your horses.
Post by: GeniuSxBoY on August 07, 2011, 07:09:56 AM
No it just pisses me off that I figured out how he's doing it but can't design my own bot because of time restrictions.

I can't do it as a human either.


Title: Re: Hold your horses.
Post by: Vladimir on August 07, 2011, 07:19:00 AM
I think these washouts are a good thing, at this stage. Those early adopter and early heist and "teenage millionaires" bitcoins need to be redistributed. The lower it goes the better bitcoins get spread out among investors and general public. It is a good thing in my book.

So... do not hold your horses, do panic. The sooner we get a capitulation event the sooner we move on.


Title: Re: Hold your horses.
Post by: piramida on August 07, 2011, 07:24:20 AM
I think these washouts are a good thing, at this stage. Those early adopter and early heist and "teenage millionaires" bitcoins need to be redistributed. The lower it goes the better bitcoins get spread out among investors and general public. It is a good thing in my book.

So... do not hold your horses, do panic. The sooner we get a capitulation event the sooner we move on.


Exactly my thoughts. Weak need to be weeded out. You can become rich by just being lucky, but you can never hold your fortune without having balls.


Title: Re: Hold your horses.
Post by: GeniuSxBoY on August 07, 2011, 07:31:59 AM
Do you know how to sift gold out of mud?


This is the same concept. The bot is sifting your money out of the market at micro-increments each time the market shakes up and down!


Title: Re: Hold your horses.
Post by: julz on August 07, 2011, 07:38:26 AM
This sort of crash might make some people who might otherwise only have mined - realize that it's worth having a few dollars in an exchange to take advantage of such dips.


Title: Re: Hold your horses.
Post by: piramida on August 07, 2011, 07:38:59 AM
I dont know who is weeding what, I'm up +30% in BTC since a month ago.


Title: Re: Hold your horses.
Post by: FlipPro on August 07, 2011, 07:49:16 AM
Do you know how to sift gold out of mud?


This is the same concept. The bot is sifting your money out of the market at micro-increments each time the market shakes up and down!
So why not just follow the bots direction and profit? When the bot drives it up we sell, when it drives it down we buy.


Title: Re: Hold your horses.
Post by: GeniuSxBoY on August 07, 2011, 08:00:16 AM
Quote
7.0800   8.16051
28.0000   8.13051
50.1700   8.1002
12.7407   8.10001
65.0000   8.09998
28.0000   8.06051
28.0000   8.01051
7.9900   8.01007
62.0004   8.01   


These all posted simultaneously.


If you sell your bitcoins for his price, the bot will instantly place a sell order on the other side.

If you buy his bitcoins that he is selling, the bot will instantly place a buy order on the other side.

No matter which way you go, he wins.


Title: Re: Hold your horses.
Post by: GeniuSxBoY on August 07, 2011, 08:15:52 AM
Goodnight speculators :)


Have fun :)


Title: Re: Hold your horses.
Post by: FlipPro on August 07, 2011, 08:18:04 AM
Goodnight speculators :)


Have fun :)
GN buddy buy in b4 u go to bed ;)


Title: Re: Hold your horses.
Post by: BitcoinBug on August 07, 2011, 08:58:46 AM
I think these washouts are a good thing, at this stage. Those early adopter and early heist and "teenage millionaires" bitcoins need to be redistributed. The lower it goes the better bitcoins get spread out among investors and general public. It is a good thing in my book.

So... do not hold your horses, do panic. The sooner we get a capitulation event the sooner we move on.


+1
Couldn't have said it better myself. It has to happen, better now than later.


Title: Re: Hold your horses.
Post by: payb.tc on August 07, 2011, 09:41:55 AM
It has to happen, better now then later.

better now, and then not later at all.


Title: Re: Hold your horses.
Post by: oakpacific on August 07, 2011, 10:10:56 AM
I think these washouts are a good thing, at this stage. Those early adopter and early heist and "teenage millionaires" bitcoins need to be redistributed. The lower it goes the better bitcoins get spread out among investors and general public. It is a good thing in my book.

So... do not hold your horses, do panic. The sooner we get a capitulation event the sooner we move on.


What I would say is people who invest their lunch money on bitcoins should leave as soon as possible, for their own good. Those who remain should be able to afford losing their entire investment without commiting suicide.


Title: Re: Hold your horses.
Post by: JoelKatz on August 07, 2011, 10:16:09 AM
The bot is sifting your money out of the market at micro-increments each time the market shakes up and down!
Let me guess -- it buys bitcoins, forcing the price up, which it then sells, forcing the price back down. Then it just repeats the process. Am I right?


Title: Re: Hold your horses.
Post by: Vandroiy on August 07, 2011, 11:54:30 AM
The bot is sifting your money out of the market at micro-increments each time the market shakes up and down!
Let me guess -- it buys bitcoins, forcing the price up, which it then sells, forcing the price back down. Then it just repeats the process. Am I right?

It's not wise to force the price anywhere. The bots typically just wait for small-scale fluctuations, and have a higher tendency to sell at higher prices and buy at lower. Their advantage is that their time isn't too valuable, so they can trade on small margins.

So, I guess the bots feed on jumpy prices at low volumes. Larger spikes are usually food for day-traders... I think it's all fed by people who let themselves be manipulated too easily. Their money pays for the show. IMO, we will see a few speculators and a lot of destroyed wannabe speculators in the end. And those who laugh at the show.

(I'm not the type to watch at a challenge like this idly, so I will be in one of the former groups -- but I know very well I could become a defeated wannabe. I hope everyone playing is aware that he can lose.)


Title: Re: Hold your horses.
Post by: JoelKatz on August 07, 2011, 12:50:29 PM
It's not wise to force the price anywhere. The bots typically just wait for small-scale fluctuations, and have a higher tendency to sell at higher prices and buy at lower. Their advantage is that their time isn't too valuable, so they can trade on small margins.
That doesn't work very well. If the margin is less than the commission, you don't make money. If the margin is only slightly better than the commission, you don't have to fail on too many transactions to be losing money. (Every time you fail, you lose the commission on both transactions.)

You wind up having to take bigger and bigger risks to chase smaller and smaller profits. What if you buy and then the price starts to drop? If you sell to cut your losses, you lose on the commission on both transactions. If you wait, you lose more and more time with your funds risking a bigger and bigger loss.


Title: Re: Hold your horses.
Post by: ampirebus on August 07, 2011, 08:02:56 PM
I think these washouts are a good thing, at this stage. Those early adopter and early heist and "teenage millionaires" bitcoins need to be redistributed. The lower it goes the better bitcoins get spread out among investors and general public. It is a good thing in my book.

So... do not hold your horses, do panic. The sooner we get a capitulation event the sooner we move on.


What I would say is people who invest their lunch money on bitcoins should leave as soon as possible, for their own good. Those who remain should be able to afford losing their entire investment without commiting suicide.

do you realize this makes you sound like an out of touch jerk or just an outright buffoon? Many people can barely make it day to day just eating food or live off hotdogs and ramen... let alone have investment capital. The middle class is shrinking and fast. upward mobility is harder here than it is in some "third world" countries. Just because someone isnt rich doesnt mean they can't try to increase their social stratification

i couldnt even get a loan from a bank for a subway sandiwhc that costs 5$ right now let alone anything else. And i've been unemployed for 3 years and i have college training. And compared to many other americans i have a good life and im clining on barely.

"blah blah blah i dont think people with a lot of money should be doing what i do because im better than them"


Title: Re: Hold your horses.
Post by: grod on August 07, 2011, 08:34:43 PM
That doesn't work very well. If the margin is less than the commission, you don't make money.


Plenty evidence that mtgox or a favored client run one or more tradebots at a greatly reduced or zero commission.  If they were, we would never know.  And armed with the knowledge of how much money is entering and exiting the exchange with 90% trade volume as well as seeing "dark pools" such a bot could vastly outperform humans and other bots both.

There's a reason real life exchanges are regulated to keep such a conflict of interest from happening.   MtGox is ... a magic the gathering exchange.  They can do whatever they wish.  They are accountable to nobody.



Title: Re: Hold your horses.
Post by: error on August 07, 2011, 08:35:55 PM
That doesn't work very well. If the margin is less than the commission, you don't make money.


Plenty evidence that mtgox or a favored client run one or more tradebots at a greatly reduced or zero commission.  If they were, we would never know.  And armed with the knowledge of how much money is entering and exiting the exchange with 90% trade volume as well as seeing "dark pools" such a bot could vastly outperform humans and other bots both.

There's a reason real life exchanges are regulated to keep such a conflict of interest from happening.   MtGox is ... a magic the gathering exchange.  They can do whatever they wish.  They are accountable to nobody.

MtGox is fully accountable - to its customers. The way it should be. If any significant number of its customers had a problem with MtGox, then they would go elsewhere, MtGox would change the way it operates, or it would fail.


Title: Re: Hold your horses.
Post by: grod on August 07, 2011, 08:44:42 PM

MtGox is fully accountable - to its customers. The way it should be. If any significant number of its customers had a problem with MtGox, then they would go elsewhere, MtGox would change the way it operates, or it would fail.

No, they are not accountable.  What you describe is simply good customer service.  If MtGox ran or allowed an advantaged trade bot and made that fact public you'd see outrage and fleeing, I guarantee it.  That's the advantage of NOT being accountable.  As long as nobody can prove anything no backlash, just additional profit.

Think of it as front running evolved.


Title: Re: Hold your horses.
Post by: error on August 08, 2011, 03:04:25 AM

MtGox is fully accountable - to its customers. The way it should be. If any significant number of its customers had a problem with MtGox, then they would go elsewhere, MtGox would change the way it operates, or it would fail.

No, they are not accountable.  What you describe is simply good customer service.  If MtGox ran or allowed an advantaged trade bot and made that fact public you'd see outrage and fleeing, I guarantee it.  That's the advantage of NOT being accountable.  As long as nobody can prove anything no backlash, just additional profit.

Think of it as front running evolved.

And just who do you think Mt. Gox should be accountable to?


Title: Re: Hold your horses.
Post by: JoelKatz on September 30, 2011, 10:21:50 AM
No, they are not accountable.  What you describe is simply good customer service.  If MtGox ran or allowed an advantaged trade bot and made that fact public you'd see outrage and fleeing, I guarantee it.  That's the advantage of NOT being accountable.  As long as nobody can prove anything no backlash, just additional profit.
It doesn't matter whether anyone can prove anything or not. If I tend to lose a lot at a casino, I won't go back to that casino. I don't need to prove that the odds are worse there, I just need to feel that I'm not doing as well as I think I should and I'll try someplace else. If I do better elsewhere, I'll stay there.


Title: Re: Hold your horses.
Post by: Cluster2k on September 30, 2011, 10:29:43 AM
I think these washouts are a good thing, at this stage. Those early adopter and early heist and "teenage millionaires" bitcoins need to be redistributed. The lower it goes the better bitcoins get spread out among investors and general public. It is a good thing in my book.

So... do not hold your horses, do panic. The sooner we get a capitulation event the sooner we move on.

What I would say is people who invest their lunch money on bitcoins should leave as soon as possible, for their own good. Those who remain should be able to afford losing their entire investment without commiting suicide.

Investors need to man up and dump their fortunes into bitcoins.  Like, right now, when I have plenty of Asks on MtGox.  What happens to their fortunes after that doesn't concern me in the slightest  :D


Title: Re: Hold your horses.
Post by: grod on October 01, 2011, 05:43:23 AM
It doesn't matter whether anyone can prove anything or not. If I tend to lose a lot at a casino, I won't go back to that casino. I don't need to prove that the odds are worse there, I just need to feel that I'm not doing as well as I think I should and I'll try someplace else. If I do better elsewhere, I'll stay there.


How about this scenario.   There is ONE casino.  You can choose to play there or not at all.  Bitcoin revolves around what Magic Tux decides to do, not the other way around.

All the other tiny volume exchanges are simply shadows of MtGox.  What happens at the gox determines pricing on those exchanges.  And IMO the players in the bitcoin casino have had their money squeezed out of them very efficiently over the past few months.  If they all subscribed to your credo they'd all be gone by now.  Nobody admits to buying at 30, 20, 15, and even 10 -- and yet, that's where the highest volume of $ traded hands.


Title: Re: Hold your horses.
Post by: Cluster2k on October 01, 2011, 06:08:19 AM
Nobody admits to buying at 30, 20, 15, and even 10 -- and yet, that's where the highest volume of $ traded hands.

Nobody likes to admit they lost money, or they participated in loser trades.  When's the last time you had a friend run up to you and say 'guess what! I lost $1000 at the casino last night!'  :D

A lot of people got burned up the way up to $30 if they didn't quickly sell on the way down.  The 'buy and hold' crowd are deep in the red.  Few people possessed bitcoins of any value prior to the spike as they weren't popular before early 2011.


Title: Re: Hold your horses.
Post by: d.james on October 01, 2011, 08:15:16 AM
i think the op is trying to get out.


Title: Re: Hold your horses.
Post by: pekv2 on October 01, 2011, 08:18:53 AM
i think the op is trying to get out.

lol nope, been mining since I have created an account here.

I'm not leaving nor trying to get out with my 5 bitcoins<LOL.


Title: Re: Hold your horses.
Post by: mobodick on October 01, 2011, 08:23:32 AM
The bot is sifting your money out of the market at micro-increments each time the market shakes up and down!
Let me guess -- it buys bitcoins, forcing the price up, which it then sells, forcing the price back down. Then it just repeats the process. Am I right?
If only all bots had your wisdom..