Bitcoin Forum

Data used: Bitstamp's hourly volume weighted average historical trades Nov 1, 00:00 - Nov 30, 09:00.

Total volume during that period: BTC953,782.


During November, 59% of the trades (by BTC volume) happened at prices lower than $500. Conversely, only 9% happened on $900 or higher. The average price for all trades was $517 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=322058.msg3777308#msg3777308).

It will be more useful if you can predict where the pullback will go to and from where. We all know that at some point it will go down a bit.

It could mean the opposite, too. When everyone waits for a crash, expect many trapped bears.
Thanks for the data!

I see it differently ..

The price/volume ratio only varied by a factor of two over all of your data, except the last datapoint.  There could be several factors to blame:

1) Breaking over into the low 1000s occurred during Thanksgiving week.  Wait until mid next week when fiat clears the exchanges.
2) There is considerable psychological resistance to buying anything "virtual" and "faith based" that is considerably more than $1k (irrational market participants).

Is this data directly available from bitstamp or was it sourced elsewhere?  Just curious where to look for the raw data.

the amount traded bitcoins is decreasing because the price is higher but traded dollars are more or less the same

$200-299   BTC215,619 200x215000 = 43 mln
$300-399   BTC208,384
$400-499   BTC135,057
$500-599   BTC98,430
$600-699   BTC86,344
$700-799   BTC46,202
$800-899   BTC73,779
$900-999   BTC47,990
$1000-1099   BTC36,849 1000 x 36000 = 36mln
$1100-1199   BTC5,127

(don't have time to calculate all)

also i don't know if you should make percent based groups not 100 dollars

could you work in percentages?

eg 200 -> 220 (+10%): volume =
220 -> 242 (+10%): voluime = ...

Also, using USD instead of BTC would help.
Check bitcoinity options (show volume in Currency)
plot graph over 6m, you'll see the volume keeps increasing

you all posted whilst i was building the table... but yeah usd volume is interesting... maybe only support until 1000-1100 range.

be nice if thats the new floor

I've bolded the USD figures for those trades. and that has remained pretty consistent until $1100 was breached. Also, Nov 30 has only just begun in the US and we don't know what sort of trading day we will see yet. About US$100 million more has been traded above $500 than below. I think the drop in btc volume is probably because people are still thinking of the value of btc in $US terms


Edit: sgbett and I had the same thought  :)

If history teaches anything, its that "past performance is not a guarantee of future returns".

What I mean is that everyone is expecting the run-up/crash cycle we have seen before, and so the market being the market, it will probably do what is least expected ;)

Which I think is what you are saying - in which case I agree!

Thanks for collating, data is always good.

I think it's extremely important to keep in mind that MtGox has quite recently started offering 0% trade fees. So it's really not so much of a surprise that the Bitstamp volume from $1100-$1199 has been thin.

No money in !=more money out I guess.

It's difficult for the money to both get in and out thus the low volume and high price.

1. It is undeniable that volume has dropped both in BTC and in USD terms. It is not insignificant that it drops by 20%, 30% or so. These are the warning signs that should not be discarded.

2. It would be mathematically better to work on percentages, but I wanted a visually pleasing way + there was a technical reason (truncate to -2 decimals) that I chose this one.

3. Data is public in:
Bitcoincharts (http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg30zigHourlyzczsg2013-11-01zeg2013-11-30ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzl).

4. In Bitstamp, Thanksgiving is not a big thing.

5. The lowered volume indicated that there is an overhang on the sell side. Current holders are unwilling to sell as much as is otherwise rational, because they want a better timing. That we went +500% and they are still waiting.

6. USD volume has certainly increased during this period. This proves that there has been much new interest. Since the price has been climbing exponentially (with a daily exponent of 6.3% over 27 days), they have generally invested all of it quite quickly. This can change in a heartbeat.

7. On average, bitcoin's value appreciation works so that during every double, existing holders sell 17%. In November this has definitely not been so. There will have to be a constant exponential increase of new money coming in (via a dysfunctional or non-existent infrastructure), or a crash. Probably both. And several times a year. At this point, anyone who denies the existence of either, is delusional, and deserves the pain.

Pros don't hope. They adjust the bets so that they win regardless. (If they are in the position to move the markets, they will)

Thanks, I was just looking at the data and it seems.

• We've had about 14 hours of trading where the weighted average price was between $1100 and $1199.
• We've had 80 hours of trading where the weighted average was a price of $800-899
• We've had 180 hours of trading where the weighted average was between 200 and 300.

.

I'm not a statistician but I'm curious if the hours of trading at a particular price should be noted at all when looking at total volume for a certain price level?

It's only been at 1000+ for 24 hrs?  Of course volume is going to be lower.  Future "crashes" won't be as apparent as time go on and will look more and more like corrections, because whales aren't dumb enough to lose so much value for their coins. It is so much more profitable, due to the strength of the market, to sell in smaller amounts preferably at peak times.  Any major sell off at low liquidity times for less value is either the result of boredom or malice (manipulation), and it will be less effective as time goes on.  

So it looks like if you sold at anything below 900, well maybe buy back in asap, and short it at 1800?  Other wise, choo choo mutha fucka!

Low volumes on Bitstamp are to be expected, since the rise from 500 to 1000 took place on BTCChina.

Both Gox and Stamp were mostly silent as they watched the Chinese bull run. Of course the price takes a discontinous jump then.

It would be interesting to see if your numbers still hold true if you look at the four big exchanges together. I suspect that trade volume was larger this time than in March (thereby implying that the correction will be shorter and faster) but it would be interesting to find out if that's true!

While Bitstamp is an important part of the BTC market, it is just that.
To come to any conclusions here, we need to look at a bitter share of the total volume.
Here is an indication of the current distribution of BTC trading volume:

BTCChina	44%
MtGox (USD only)	16%
Bitstamp	14%
Other exchanges	26%

This is based on bitcoincharts.com data.

That depends what you want to prove. I want to raise the awareness of the scenario that we have been going too far too fast, which means that odds are no longer wildly stacked on our favor (as usual), just reasonably stacked. Both the fact that we cross price levels quickly and that the volume is low, testify to the increased risk.

We are at 3.5x the exponential trendline just now. Iirc, the intraday bubble top in April was 4.3x. Especially worrisome thing is that not even one is analyzing these things with any scientific/mathematical fashion except me. The complacency has indeed reached the levels of April, where any newb thinks that he has become a genius by buying in 9 days before, and any cashout by older members is ridiculed.

Wow, thank you, I did not know it had become so lopsided.

What is the date range for this?

You will see this pattern naturally with Bitcoin price ranges because it is growing exponentially:

This is a snapshot of today's (last 24h) volumes.

Yes, volume is driven to BTCChina because of this, but it is a reality that more BTC are traded there than at e.g. Bitstamp.

Isn't this a logical fallacy?  This current run up is different than april in more aspects.  Am I right?

I think a crash is warranted if we hit $3k by Christmas.

HAHAA  ;D

It is not so simple. We also have to consider the fundamentals, fundalo-technicals (the long-term exponential chart), technicals, political and infrastructure situation, forum sentiment etc.

Forum sentiment has gone into full-blind territory (see altcoins for further proof).
Price is 3.5x long-term exponential trend (comp. $210 in April).
Long time no negative action from government (not good).


In my situation I would rather have a million of cash in the bank, a ton of silver in my vault, a castle, and more bitcoins than is the fair share of Estonia.  ;D

That you ridicule me for actually doing something with my life and bitcoins, is a proof that you are blinded. Just wait  ;D

You know what? My friend actually congratulated me  :o He thought I was doing good. What a jerk - not even mortgaged his dog for bitcoins.  ;D

You speak about logic.

1. In what aspects is the current runup different?

2. What data supports your prediction?

As i stated in some earlier posts, i also believe we are overdue for a correction and the volume levels now confirm it. Not sure when, maybe we'll have a further surge before a correction.  Also too many people "praying" for the price to go higher.

Ofcourse as usual it only means great buying opportunity, especially for simple buy and hold investment.

One the things that seem out of whack is the alt coins.  Who is buying namecoins for $10usd per and what for?

This confirms that we are very near the top. Check LTC/BTC ratio in April!

I don't think so.
Look: http://data.bitcoinity.org/#caaaadfiaa
That says volume is higher by a factor of  2.5M/1.5M=1.67 and I think it's easy for the volume to be inflated by at least a factor of two with zero fees.

I think rpietila is correct in his assessment of the current situation. In fact I'm willing to bet on it and in so I've sold 2% of my holdings today.

1) the market has been put into a microscope by media, ie ny times forbes, bloomberg, etc, 2nd market

2) we are still at the 1/4 equivalent of the april run up imo.

That was you that dropped it to 1136?

Mmmyeah... about that... Nobody did that.

What happened was that you sold at $900 and now you spend your time preaching doom and gloom.

I get it, I'm in the same boat (just an orders of magnitude smaller player of course). I did my own analysis and sold some at $900. Of course, I kick myself daily for that. At least I can admit I was wrong.

That's the thing, you never know. It could have been the right move at the time. We're all speculators in this sub forum. But it's dishonest to pretend help people. Yeah, right. Help your own investment trading would be more like it.

How crash can happen if nobody sells?

1. No big difference.

2. It is not an imo case, if data is available. In spring the top was 20.0x the previous base, now we are 17.6x.

1/4 would be 5x. If spring repeats itself, we will see $1,300 intraday. If base is calculated from $120, it is a different case, then it is $2400 and we are now half way through.

Have you any idea that I actually watch these charts several hours per day, and the reason for the posts is to distill the information for others to learn and act on?

Your chart proves my original point that Bitstamp is not "the market", that BTCChina is larger in volume than Bitstamp and that volume discussions based solely upon Bitstamp volumes are not indicative of the BTC market as a whole.

Because the ltc/btc ratio in April is similar to the current ltc/btc ratio, therefore we will have a crash similar to the april crash?  GREAT LOGIC!!!!

Just a reminder to one and all, before taking Rpietila too seriously. He had predicted a bitcoin valuation of several hundred thousand USD by the end of the year. That was during his manic phase, just before he was involuntarily hospitalized. He is now likely in a depressive phase of his bipolar affective disorder and things are therefore bound to look gloomy from his perspective. Or else he just wants to buy cheaper bitcoins... which is fine

OP deleted a users reply which i have posted above. lol

Well, I for one agree with Rpietila. This is a tipsy situation. We have a massive influx of newbs buying BTC and altcoins blinded by greed and hoping to get rich quick. Cryptsy is experiencing serious problems with capacity and google trends is at a new ATH, It's beginning to look a lot like the climax of the April bubble. I don't envisage a crash though, but a correction lies ahead in the near future IMO.

A lot of newbs will probably soon be fleeced badly. I've sold a small portion of my holdings to be ready for the drop.

But then there's the question of China....

No, thanks for asking.
Feel free to state your point more clearly -- it obviously hasn't reached its audience.

Its hard to compare the April market with todays market.  Back then, a whale could pump or dump 2000 Bitcoin on mrgox and shape the market for hours.

But in April, the West was the Bitcoin market.  Now we are an afterthought with BTCChina doing almost as much in a day as gox, stamp and btce combined.  What this means is that a crash has to hit 5 or 6 exchanges at the same time. 

In the absence of a bad news story, its very hard to see how a crash can happen now.

How do we know it's an influx of newb money?  I'll pose an alternate scenario.  People who have been into BTC for awhile are converting more of their fiat into BTC.  However, since they've been around awhile, they may be reluctant to continue to dump money in past $1k.  I know I am.  Irrational perhaps, but I do have a problem buying something at such a premium that I bought so much cheaper early this year.  This combined with large blocks of investment capital just parked in cold wallets could produce these patterns of steep inclines as large blocks of money come in, then cool off periods when we cross critical price thresholds.  The Chinese certainly threw a wrench into things, because they tend to be gamblers and were obviously inexperienced in this particular market.  If the old steady hands hadn't been around when the Chinese markets slumped, we probably would have had a full blown April all over again.  Now they've wised up like we did.  I expect that the Chinese will drive the alt coin market into fits of mass panic and hysteria in the upcoming months.  Buy! Sell! Buy! Sell!

I think my math is right but at this valuation aren't there 6 million usd of new coins per day getting mined.  If prices double it will be 12 million usd per day and that's not including alt coins.  I think Litecoin is generating well over a million usd per day as well.  So at $2000/btc, 500 million usd gets created each month?   :o

Don't think so, at least not regarding the alts. I'm following a bitcoin thread on an Norwegian forum and we've had a massive increase in newbs asking "where do I buy LTC?", "How do I transfer USd to cryptsy?", "Wich alt is the best to buy?" etc.

Also, check out google trends on altcoin: http://www.google.no/trends/explore?q=altcoin#q=altcoin&cmpt=q

The newbs are coming, and a lot of them are going to leave crying.

I agree that the alt coin market will start going bonkers (hell, it already is).  However, I don't think they will be able to crash the BTC market like in April.  I believe a crash like that would stem from a lack of confidence in the technology, which is what happened in April .. So I don't think comparisons to April are terribly relevant.  How many times have people predicted crashes over the past few months based on coincidences with April data points?

As a sidenote .. I think the trollbox @ BTC-E represents the lowest form of humanity.  Noobs should steer clear.

The question you should ask yourself is: Do you expect these 6 M USD to be in the market? At what price point will these miners cash out?

Mining equipment is much too expensive for people to cash out immediately. It does not matter if thousands of Bitcoins are minted every day if the holders think that the price is too low to sell.

And the altcoins are mostly traded in BTC, so I don't think any valuation in dollars really make sense there. Cash flows in and out of Bitcoins almost exclusively.

Rpietila, when you compare the current situation to the April crash, I think you miss one detail:

The April crash was largely caused by MtGox going down. Now there isn't a single point of failure like that anymore.

Your wisdom is much appreciated.

What do you base that on? Gox may have been a trigger cause, but the April crash was one of the most predictable crashes in finance history, far more clear-cut than the current situation. It would have crashed regardless. Like Schiff says, it was a bubble in search of a pin.

 Some here seem to be reviewing the wrong type of data. Or at the wrong time. Or in the wrong frame of mind.



 Mainstream news isn't going to offer much in the way of serious thoughts when it comes to Bitcoin or the alt. coins.

 Nor is reading anything about the data from TODAY of all days. Or Thursday (Thanksgiving). Or even since the middle of this week when it comes to any American or Western European BTC Exchange Service data.



 Yes fundamentals and technical's really both matter a lot.

 But this is a Breakout period of the birthing of Crypto-Currencies. This truly is the start of a Monetary Revolution.



 Sure there will be many corrections ahead. And many price surges too. And many trading levels as BTC and other Crypto's march forward.


 As for why anyone would pay x for y (alt-coins) that's silly! It's because they believe they have Value.


 I did enjoy reading this thread though. Seems like a bright bunch here. But maybe a bit nervous, and maybe a bit too nervous for what's arrived! (Bitcoin, and all the various alt-coins).


 Best get used to this being the new ultimate high stakes poker game of sorts. (Best get used to the price swings and all), or get into another line of trade. This is going to be harrowing for quite some time to come. As in wild swings followed by calmer periods, then repeat the same thing over and over. Seems no one here ever traded in the Forex? Or at least never at any level above 10/1 which is extremely sage advice except in the best moments where it's obvious what looms right then and there!


 From a fundamental reasoning BTC will keep marching upwards, but with many corrections. (others may like the term crash) but it's not correctly applied here. This is a new ballgame. A whole new ballgame.


 From a technical perspective $900-ish is the 1st major support level. Below that it's a long way back to any strong support at around $400 if memory serves me correctly, I wont bother to look at the charts now for that one. Fact is BTC broke way, way out of it's prior trading range of $80 to $150s. So heading back there isn't impossible. But it may only be for hours instead of days if that should occur. I seriously doubt it will but it's possible, but with quick recovery of sorts, at least partially. The bottom is likely around $900, or $400 now. Instead of the old trading range of $80 to $150s.

 The new trading range is likely >$800 to <$1300 for a while to come, but not a long while. After that it's either up higher to a new record trading range, or instead a backwards for a spell. It all 'depends'...

 Get used to sweating bullets if your not used to playing high stakes capitalist games because that is what this is if you have a lot on the line. Best stay diversified so that nothing tragic could occur if you have most at stake here and not much in the way of reserves. Otherwise what are we really chatting about? Nervousness...




Caveat emptor - let the buyer beware!

My gut instinct says the price will crash and more than 50% what it's currently.
The whales in China have to book their profit in trading after-all!

You really believe we would hit 1000 back in april, if not for Gox? Market doesn´t work like that.

Oh yes, most of them will. After all they are intimately bound to BTC for cashing in and out and some of them are extremely overbought at the moment. If their value suddenly halves because BTC halves I expect pandemonium with sheep rushing to the exit.

Hmm... this is indeed possible. Again from my own experience, I started to accumulate more of them on top of my previous holdings, when the price had risen significantly early this year, I made for example a BTC2,000 purchase (http://trilema.com/2013/lets-capture-forum-bugs-in-amber/) when the price was already at $70. Then I sold very little at >200 and bought very much at <100, and afterwards.

In dollar terms this previously large holder therefore contributed a lot towards the rise.

Now I have decided that I have enough. So I have a diversification schedule that aims to keep BTC at 80% of portfolio. If I have less, I am "short" and positioned to buy back in the event of crash. If I have more, I am waiting for an opportune time to sell some. For me, an opportune time came 2 weeks ago when China was at 45% premium. No matter where the price goes from here, I am fine.

But the thing is that because I am already unloading my bitcoins, does not mean that everybody should be. There are a lot of people who are as rich (or richer) than I am, and not nearly as loaded with bitcoins. For them, this current runup may be a good opportunity to buy more, despite that the price is much higher than it was only 2 months ago.

At any rate, if price goes up quickly, it makes sellers hesitant to sell, buyers even more anxious to buy, the price go up even more quickly, and when it has gone to parabolic (defined by roughly 50-100% increase in 72 hours), it will crash. There is no going around this.

That pretty much is the only thing missing in your crash picture--rapidly ascending price, we are now stalling and flucutating.

There are smooth and spiky tops, in the former the fluctuations cancel each other out in the latter they get in phase with each other.

Great thread!


I have no problem dealing with the volatility, I'm prepared to lose it all, and investing more than 10% would be crazy anyways.

What I'm more "nervous" about is some technological or political problem coming up, bringing BC down to 0. Restrictions imposed by the government e.g., problems with the blockchain, etc... these are the only things that would not be nice.

Bitstamp might have seen its market share greatly diminished along your time frame. I have imitated your analysis with bitcoinity data for all USD exchanges:

http://data.bitcoinity.org/#ccacdfdgaa

Doubling from $205 to $416 takes 1,67 MBTC, while doubling from $560 to $1130 takes 2,14 MBTC. Please notice both intervals include the same number of crashcorrections (one) and, roughly, of days (14 to 12).

In conclusion, during November, 49% of the trades happened at prices lower than $500.

Thanks for encouraging me to delve into the numbers, I always enjoy some analysis, especially if it makes me a lot more confident on current price levels than I was a few minutes ago.  :)

I have never gotten a single Bitcoin via mining and have absolutely no intention of ever trying.  Well, I did run the default miner for a few minutes just for fun/learning.

I have never purchased a single item using Bitcoin yet; I have given some gifts of Bitcoin away (only one has been bought back).

I was the spark for a local retailer, The Bronx Deli http://bronxdeli.com/ (http://bronxdeli.com/), beginning to accept Bitcoin.

I brought in $10,000 (USD) (~1-2% of my total net worth) of non-retirement funds through a few different exchanges (to learn about them), fully prepared to lose it all in a flash (still am).  A couple of days ago, I sold BTC1 just to appease my wife, family and friends; they wanted proof that I could get out.

I'm a small number of days away from getting in $25,000 (UDS) of Roth IRA, i.e. tax-free growth, via SecondMarket & Equity Institutional after which I will draw out some more non-retirement funds to rebalance -- my mid-term target is to get back my original $35,000 (USD) (after taxes, fees, etc.).

The longer Bitcoin goes without a fatal flaw the greater the percentage of my net worth will be in Bitcoin but I won't be abandoning USD anytime soon.

I will not be attempting to time my ins and outs.  Anyone, including the OP, that thinks they can reliably and accurately predict corrections/crashes or anything else is deluding themselves although I sincerely appreciate the postings (they make for entertaining/thought-provoking reading).

I agree that the volume is questionable, mostly in China and Gox.  There are patterns to this but I don't care to elaborate because it seems to irritate people when you talk about the actual nature of coulds and woulds.  This is a great movie!

6.3% per day over the last 27 days is rapid, but it is not blowoff.

We actually did hit my blowoff trigger event Monday last week, that is why I sold. The price later corrected down -50% (in all exchanges but different times), but it was not yet the beginning of a prolonged cooling period.

I highly doubt that the next one will be a false alarm. It is possible that we go to $2k or $3k before the crash, but remember that with the current ascent (6.3% over X days and then 60% over the final 3 days), we will hit:

$2,000 in Dec 4th

$3,000 in Dec 11th

$4,000 in Dec 15th.

So:

1. Either we will have to slow down and have a sideways correction (which can possibly result in a crash when people realize that the rise has stopped and they are sitting on huge gains several times the ATH of one month ago, and technical indicators are going sour etcetc. somebody pulls the trigger first: manipulators, China, shorters, whales, traders, panickers, SSS subscribers; but buyers will not pick up because coins at $1,000 are not cheap and even if they were, it takes such a number of dollars to absorb them at these levels that it just does not happen)

2. Or we continue this "stalling" with 6.3% daily ascent until we hit either $2k, $3k or $4k before Christmas, and then crash legendarily to sub-$1,000 when all the forces outlined in (1.) - and then some - conflate.

Humankind's greatest disability is the lack of understanding of exponential function.

Much appreciated. Do you also have the average price for November trades?

Scenario 1 is extremely unlikely. Bitcoin has never done this to date - sideways movement at an ATH then crash down. Sideways has always been about gathering forces before the move up. So scenario 2.

And yes, I know that history does not repeat itself etc etc. But since each and every crash always followed a big jump up, I think it is just one of the properties of this system.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Albert_Allen_Bartlett

I understand the paranoia of a crash- certainly I am nervous myself, but this time around it really feels like the infrastructure is doing a much better job of keeping up with the speculation. We went from 1 major conference a year to what seems like weekly bitcoin meet ups and events all over the place. I came home to the us to find everyone I know talking about bitcoin. Asking me about it, and pitching ideas for it.

Of course it's a bubble, but you have to consider as well we might be really starting to fulfill a niche. Speculation is now less speculative, (prior to April there was no china, no Chinese governments tacit approval, no us senate hearings with that sounded like the government was not interested in letting some non-us company get a lead in crypto)

So I think is price reflects a growing certainty about the future. We probably don't even need to be fueled by press coverage for that much longer. It would be enough to enter themainstream to to start slow steady growth.

I know a crash is in the future, but perhaps by then so many peoplew I'll be trying to get in that it will only serve to further the frenzy.

This time its different.

I know this time can be different. 6/2010-6/2011 saw about 6000x growth. Don't ever sell out, and stop picking on me for selling 20% and buying a castle  ;D

To clarify, by 'crash' do you refer to big drop and sustained (for some appreciable period) low(er) levels as April and previous, or something like Nov 19/20 with a ~50% drop recovered and surpassed in short order?  

Crash would be a period where it takes several months (2 minimum) to regain the ATH. April took 7 months.

Great thread, it's nice to see some fresh perspective on the current situation. Also good to see some statistics to provoke thought deeper thought on that matter rather than gut feeling.

Keep calm. It is not easy to keep control over 3 brains.

 ???

But isn't that the problem?  All us old hands know that a "crash" will be a buying opportunity and for that reason the market simply won't crash until even us true believers start saying its crazy.  And that won't happen short of $10k.

I think you really skew any case you are trying to make by looking at Bitstamp.    Most of the hardware sellers seem to use bitpay and I "think" bitpay sells through bitstamp which would explain why bitstamp has LAGGED gox/china throughout this entire rally.

What is your downside target after $10k?

I don't have one.  I proved my trading skills when I sold 500 btc at the $119.99 "top."  I do think that there are a lot of people who have learnt that the bitcoin market always bounces back and that will prevent a crash to $500.  I'm aware that is opinion rather than a researched fact.

This wasn't directed at you (at least by me).  I just wrote it to explain to people what a logarithm should look like in a perfect world when people complained that bitcoin spent almost no time at $800 and $900.  Since this was to be expected, I wanted people to understand that it should be much faster than the $100s and $200s instead of expecting the $800s to take 3 months like the $100s.

And yes, I understand that there are other factors to consider and that there won't be a perfect logarithmic run-up.  And I didn't ridicule you at all, just people that were trying to convince everyone to panic sell in the 800s because it only took a week.

Anyway, I just don't want to be associated with insulting you, since I never did.

It is because more and more people start to realize its true potential and start to hold. The coin supply is drying up quickly. Personally I have stopped selling coins after coin price passed $1000 mark

The rise is so fast that it just cannot do it exponentially (fixed % every day), it'll have to go parabolic, crash, parabolic, crash.

Our 6.3% per day during November (which oakpacific renamed "stalling") is such fast growth that we will be at $1 million dollars in:

March 21, 2014.

Well I had this kind of logic and prediction last spring, and it is the most famous thing where I have been wrong. (Is there another?)

If that happens, it is called bitcoin singularity. It just eats dollars away - in the end selling bitcoins for dollars becomes such a pain that nobody will do it anymore, and the whole world wants to buy. The endgame is fast, as for practical reasons only real property is accepted. If you want bitcoins, you need to have or produce something actually valuable.

Before that, 6.3% is unstable. It will either go overdrive and crash or stall (which can also be followed by crash, although not necessarily).

You seem to assume the volume BTC is as reported by your numbers atleast, my own estimates report to me that it only took 35 million dollars and ~30,000 BTC bought to make this happen.

Every time I write, using "you" is funny because it can mean singular, plural or general. In Finnish we have different words for each.

No need to apologize. I think the "supporting rpietila" movement has already grown out of proportion, I've received several PM's even :)

    This seems to be more and more the case. That, and significant new money, topped off by a more diluted pool of whales selling, US senate hearings, etc. Pretty much all of bitcoin speculation is opinion. More exposure, more exchanges, more money. It won't eliminate spikes and drops (my Opinion  ;) ) but those are the factors that I see as closing the gaps between Events, and somewhat moderating them too.  I think (there's that Opinion again) that having this last spurt of growth makes the whole more viable, and more likely to realize its potential than ever before. On that I base my opinion that $500 is unlikely, and if it came, it would be short lived.

How do you calculate the 6.3% for November?  (I've never been good at interest calculations.  I'm getting over 15% per day.  Is this a simple vs. compound thing?)

Didn't whats-his-face (oracle picture) write something up a few months back about how Bitcoin is prone to exponential (unsustainable) growths and "crashes"?  Can't find it now..

His thoughts were that this pattern of bubbles would continue, though naturally decreasing in volatility in time.  From a psychological perspective, it's still interesting though.  Are bubbles less likely in Bitcoin considering everyone is so constantly aware and thinking about them? 

It's all part of one big bubble  ;)

The constant of Greed pretty much promises the continuation of bubbles/crashes. magnitude and frequency do seem to be on the fall and rise respectively though. As price rises, less and less of a blip on the line needs to be made to realize a profit.  More and more hands stirring the pot, not necessarily in unison, creates more and more vortexes, but less slop over the side  :P

Reality check:  The only thing that gives BTC value is faith.  Faith is mass psychology.  The value of BTC is pure mass psychology, as are damn near all other investments.  I don't care if it's dollars in your pocket, shares of Apple or a bar of gold.  It's all psychology.  About the only thing people can agree on is the value of food, basic shelter and love.  The absolute survival necessities.  Beyond that, it's all a matter of anticipating how other people will value that "thing".  The gold bullion you have has value because other people agree with you.  Will they feel the same way tomorrow?  Shrug.  The only thing this TA does, in my opinion, is capture trends in human psychology (the other traders out there following your TA philosophy, other philosophies, their gut, or some algorithm a guy programmed).

If you really want to differentiate, you can use "you" for singular, "y'all" for plural, and "one" for general. Examples:

If you sell now, you are a dipshit.

If y'all sell now, all y'alls are dipshits.

If one were to sell now, one would most certainly be a dipshit.

 ;D

Rpietila, your analysis is bad and you should feel bad.

You're either trying to prove a point and cherry pick your data accordingly, or you're honestly too naive to see that in late 2013 you simply cannot take data from one exchange alone and then draw grand conclusions from it.

Here are two charts, daily btc volume over time and daily USD volume over time, summed up over mtgox, bitstamp and btcchina (where the CNY exchange rate for btcchina was fixed at 1/6.1).

I'm too lazy to draw in a nice moving average, but I trust you can see the rough trend yourself: there were indeed two spikes in btc volume compared to which we are somewhat lower now, but not drastically so, and certainly we're not lower in btc volume than in the beginning of the month. In simpler terms: btc volume is stable or slightly going up.

And USD volume paints a stronger version of the same picture, as is to be expected with the hugely increased per coin value: two spikes earlier this month, and we're slightly below them now, but overall it's going up.

That's all there is to say. Looking at those charts and concluding that we are rallying up on "decreasing volume" is wishful thinking at best, or wilful deception at worst.


https://i.imgur.com/wlp3tdx.png


https://i.imgur.com/fswGDsk.png

Wow! That is indeed very different. Thank you.

It appears that sudden volume spikes are associated with big changes in the price, but obviously that is only observable ex post facto and therefore it isn't useful information.

Some places, y'all is singular. 'Round these parts, it takes all y'all to be plural.

In old English, "you" was supposed to be plural only and there was another word for singular "you"; seems the cycle is repeating...

Fasten your seatbelts.

LOL only for noobs.....

The next day they will chase the train again.

Since the second week of November began, the rise has been approximately linear, not exponential, with drops coming on the weekends.  I suspect that institutional buying is driving the rise, and they don't work on weekends.

I think it's just that the banks are closed and it's hard for buyers - individual or institutional - to get money to the exchanges to support the sell pressure.

I like y'all's style.


Honestly naive sounds better to me. I had just gotten to use Bitstamp instead of gox for the analyses, and now the china thing steals the show. It was not intentional to bias this, and I have not verified the "corrected" figures myself yet either. It is very possible that you are right.


This was not the point. The point was to show that there is markedly less volume in higher prices, compared to lower. It is not the same thing as higher volume over time. The point was to visualize (e.g.) that if only 2% of coins have been traded at over $700, the price level is not yet very established, and will not be supported by buyers if the selling intensifies.

Main thing, as is always the case with fast runups, is the lack of support levels. We have one in $400 and the next one in $190-$266. I don't believe we will ever see the latter, but the former is very much a possibility. All this talk about bitcoin "entering mass adoption" and "everybody talking about it" was there in May. Perhaps we now have 10x more substance, but then again the price is 10x higher.


Every spike in USD volume can be the last. We are multiples higher than in the beginning of the month. I appreciate your willingness to delve into the matter but it does not change my very cautious outlook. As for psychology, when everyone thinks that it is time to buy, the time to buy has just ended.

To repeat: by "very cautious" I mean that 80% in bitcoin is warranted but 90-99% is not in these market conditions. If you have less than 80%, then you are actually more bearish than me by your actions.  ;D

It is a belief that is growing stronger and stronger among people, and this belief is fundamentally based on very limited supply of bitcoin and almost unlimited supply of fiat money

Once this belief established, it is impossible to break it, it will change people's anticipation and behavior, eventually become a self-realized prophecy: When coin price dropped quickly, there will be many people come in to buy and lift the price back immediately, until they have exhausted all their available risk capital

And then next wave will be taking loan to buy when it drops, that might push the price into bubble area, but as long as the mining cost stays low, fiat money will first flow towards mining equipment makers

Didn't want to sound too hash, I like your new serious style. Plus, we're going into a correction (how small or big unclear yet), so you're not entirely wrong.

One thing though I forgot in my earlier post.


Right. After posting my critical remarks I realized I didn't address your main point (about the uneven volume distribution across prices). Then I thought of a brilliant answer for that point, but was too tired to post and went to bed instead :D

So here it goes, with a bit of delay: I don't think that part holds up very well. I'm pretty sure that you just describe what is basically a "natural" distribution (of volume) that thins out as you get to fringes of the price.

In other words: the time interval you picked contained prices from 200 to 1200. The lowest point isn't a fringe point, because you cut off trading history before that price. So we've traded around 200 much longer. Same for everything in between 200 and 1200. The further you go away from the middle though, the lower the volume gets, as is to be expected since 1200 was the ATH at that point.

I guess to really make my point I'd have to do a quick history analysis myself. I'll see if I have time for it tonight. But my basic claim would be: If you take *any* time interval where the beginning point is at a price that has been traded regularly before, and the ending point is near the ATH (up the end of that period), then volume will thin out getting closer to that ATH.

If that's true, then the point would be then that you can't really conclude from volume thinning out as you get near the then-ATH that we've reached the end of a rally... Usually, on the way to the "final" ATH of a rally, several smaller ATHs are broken in the meantime, without a major interruption of the rally (see Januar to April this year for an example)

Was that $200 last night a correction or the crash?  I believe that crashes will become less and less intense the more people involved in bitcoin, so I wouldn't expect to see much more than that at this point.

Do not be too sure. The crash will end up happening when almost everyone is convinced it is bulletproof.

No idea if this is the crash, does not feel like till now. There will be a crash sooner or later, but may be from $2000 to $1000, or right now till $400.

If $200 is the maximum downside, why is not all the money in the world buying bitcoins just now, and why is anyone selling at any price?  ::)

I believe we will see -75% crash again. The one 2 weeks back was -50%.

This is the question I keep asking myself every day, and yet here we are.

The best time for a crash is sunday night. Nothing better then waking up Monday morning with fresh fiat and cheap coins.

Followed this and read through much of the thread, with all the usual derision coming from the perma-bulls whose opinions are based on nothing more than wish fulfilment.

It seems that just one day later, your prediction has come to light. Perhaps not a mega-crash, but certainly a brutal correction that nobody wants to be standing on the wrong side off.

Interesting to see a forecast on these pages based on actual numbers and trends, as opposed to fantasies of avarice or sour grapes of having missed the boat. Where is there public access to those figures that you have posted?

Buy and hold strategy does not lend itself to "standing on the wrong side of a brutal correction."

Rptelia got this correction correct. Hats off to him. It was a unique one, a trickle that turned into a stream. Lot of nerves and selling pressure coupled with no new money on the weekend. I'll be the first to say that this might have follow through, although I'll be surprised if we go below 5000 CYN and 700-750 on Gox.

Does it feel like doom and gloom to you?  All I see is good news in the media (one of the #1 reasons have been such a bull) and less and less panic in the streets when the market goes down. In fact, people seemed to watch today with amusement instead of fear.

That being said, there seems to be a lack of confidence at these altitudes and maybe bitcoin has run it's course in this rally.

Or maybe we will be back near the top in a day or two.

so, have you sold some BTC, rpietilla?

I have to say that I don't know where the exchange rate is going. Every day above $1,000 strengthens that as a new base, and:

1. We might have a period of relative stability for days, weeks or even many weeks (see 2010: fast runups followed by plateaus).

2. We can also go overdrive, followed by the real crash.

3. If we go south from here, there seems to be a lot of support and $500 can only be achieved by not letting buy orders in while enabling sell orders (an insidious trick from Mt.Gox in April 12). Not breaking the weekend low ($800) is a sign on confidence, otoh breaking it can lead to flashcrash towards $700 but hardly lower since the exchanges are full of fiat.

This is different than a blowoff top scenario (numbered #2 above), where price rises faster than new fiat can be pumped in to the exchanges and when the crash comes, all fiat in the exchanges belongs to the sellers who are unwilling to buy except at much lowered prices.

Can't give any percentages right now  :-\

All figures can be downloaded from Bitcoincharts.



During the flashcrash, I net increased my BTC position by about 80,000mBTC. Still well prepared to any scenario. (Is there anyone else that handles position management professionally/systematically (as opposed to feeling-based)?)

Also I increased my total position by abt 15,000mBTC, learning how to arbitrage. I am getting better at it. Roni is having a work trip in China/Thailand so I handle the desk myself. Now I am also in the position to buy/sell large amounts internationally with hefty commissions to those who do not trust or cannot use exchanges. Customer sends first. $50k/BTC50 min.

Oh brother.  The "correction" on Sunday was orchestrated.  Whales dumped, that bogus list of addresses was released, bitcointalk was hacked so people couldn't get a reality check, weak hands saw the tickers bleeding red, and panic sold.  I don't think it was anything more than that.  Of course, these events spook the market and we'll probably be parked in this range for a week or so.  Like it or not, ALL investments are at the whims of mass psychology, especially with an instrument like this which evades normal pricing models.  Whenever someone says they're sure something is about to happen in this market, I know they're full of it.  Unless you're the whale making the dumps, a hacker about to raise hell or working for an exchange and can see the $ moving in and out you're guessing like everyone else.  The worst thing someone can do is attribute luck to skill.  Most of the people here who have made it big did so by offering bitcoin-related services and buying + holding, certainly not from accurate speculation from what I can tell.

Ok, do you have ANYTHING to back that up? Bitcointalk seems more likely to have gone down due to excessive traffic, which wouldn't be strange in a panic sellout. And the "bogus list" was obviously a joke. This post just seems overly paranoid to me.

bitcointalk was hacked, paswords leaked, as was confirmed by bitcointalk itself. also gox down due to excessive traffic or ddos, and most tickers down / overloaded. it did seem orchestrated.

traderCJ, speculation though is really easy once you get used to peculiarities. For one, market is in a constant uptrend, so you just have some orders ready to pick up corrections, and sell a little at local tops. As for predicting where the price would go today, good luck with that in any market.

Important thing is that it refused to be pricked, and bounced straight back from $800 (bitstamp), which has become a strong support. The probability that it will be breached (for anything more but a flashcrash, maximum) has strongly diminished.

Gox also held well.

But who had a look at BTC China? It refused to be manipulated at all! The spread between China and Bitstamp went to +20% due to stamp crashing, whereas both the day before and after it was close to 0%. China is providing so immense liquidity that it has changed the game totally.

The weekend was the best opportunity for taking the price down, and all tricks were pulled, but it seems to have just proven that the $1,000 level is legitimate. It is a nice, round figure, and fundamentals and exponential trends are soon catching it. The lacking volume in these prices, which was my concern, and the topic of this thread, has feen fulfilled.

I am sorry if my bearish call in Nov 19 was misinterpreted as an exhortation to sell all, or even half of anyone's holdings. With bitcoin, most of the holdings should be in cold storage and the rest diversified to other forms of wealth according to a predetermined plan, for example the SSS plan (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=345065.0).

market is strong at  this  point I feel it, much stronger than back than in 800 range.
Tomorrow rally 10-20%

if not I am selling some, cause I am getting out of touch

That's probably because China doesn't read these forums.

lol, you are sorry :-)

Sorry for me, because the flashcrash buyback was about $820, and I sold at $672, therefore lost money on that trade irrevocably.

Sorry for those who do not understand that a strong sell with bitcoin means to sell 30% of your holdings and a weak sell is 10% (as opposed to stocks where sell means sell all, and strong sell is go short).

I think you're susceptible to loosing most of your bitcoins if you daytrade them. What do you mean a strong sell is 30%? That's loosing more!

There is very much logic in my writings, but in order to follow it, you have to spend 30 minutes per day just by following and thinking about me. Because most people are unwilling to do it, they only get a part of the message, and it is dangerous to act upon incomplete logic.

Just haven't found a way to do it any other way  :P Even if I write very perfect guides on all things Bitcoin, I cannot make people follow every aspect of them, and the result will be in their hand anyway.

I actually started reading ALL your posts 2 days ago. And doing some background checks on you.

Cool! I have a website registered on my name, but the blog format imho is not as good as a forum. I will perhaps still put it online in comments-disabled mode where I (my editor) polish the threads/articles from this forum in the easily digestible mode. I mean, this forum is very organic food but therefore contains also joints, sinews, bones and whatnot. ;)

In addition is my thinktank group, which has several interested people but is not organized yet.

Also my supernode has been disabled since May, but when that comes back online, oh boy  8)

Current trend looks like its playing exactly as explained by Drew on trading view: https://www.tradingview.com/v/sSmoerF3/ (https://www.tradingview.com/v/sSmoerF3/)

I've been feeling like this since the start of the weekend, this rally has no more steam left, the late comers to the party have had their 'new money' released onto the exchanges and we are having a last gasp attempt at pushing up, all the media hype has been exhausted, the 6 month break from Aprils ATH built up pressure and we had to release it, but it feels like its expended now.

I would be really surprised if we don't end up the way that chart has predicted.

Where is your buy target? $500?

If so, it is good to remember that $500 was first time ever breached in any exchange 17 days ago. That is so long that surely it will not happen ever again ;) (Yes I know everybody was considering it an insanely high price back then, as well as $400 a few days before)

My decision to go back to the bull camp was after the last weekend crash, because it seems that sentiment could not be damaged by whatever crooked tricks some pulled from their hats and wallets, and the most the price could crash was -30%, and China barely budged.

The article may be right at most in the blind chicken -level, because he seems to have no understanding in bitcoin fundamentals and therefore all his data is wrong.

I don't have a buy target per say, but I will judge the momentum of the drop and adjust my buy-in accordingly. I use QT-Trader bot with various rules so when I'm satisfied we have passed a figure that would net me a nice amount of coins I will enable the rule and buy everything below a certain price. With recent events in mind, I would be pleased with anything below $700, and very pleased below $600.

We have much to thank the dinosaur banks for the current price, by making the life of anyone trying to cash out difficult, they force the money to stay in Bitcoin, otoh, by trying to throttle the inflow of money, they prevent the mania from overheating, this maybe why the Bitcoin market looks so different from that of other equities.

As if they are not done with doing good, the capital control even tackles the adoption problem, without means of conversion to fiats, people have to seek the help of millions of merchants to move their money out, which indirectly fosters the growth of Bitcoin business, and aids the demise of banks themselves.

Yet if they unleash the control, Bitcoin will still soar with its newly gained legitimacy.

Reminds me of this old Latin sentence by Vigil "Fata viam invenient", like fate, Bitcoin will always find a way.

I just arranged the tea leaves such that the probability of a crash to anything below $800 is so small that it makes more sense to buy in now with the funds that were speculatively sold. So in total I bought about BTC225 this week, the speculative position was never so big really. So now I'm fine if it goes up or stays, but even if the drop to $500 happens, I get to buy back + keep the castle in Estonia. Not bad, except the part to buy back the short at higher prices. And even that I played solidly, bitcoin was stronger, but hate to admit that trolls were right. :)

Trolls: you realize how many millions you have lost by your bad decision to not buy bitcoin with strong funds when you first saw it?? ;)

If your going to keep mentioning this castle, then at least make a thread in Off-Topic and get some pictures up so we can all admire it......otherwise it never happened :)

I have predicted in other threads that we would be unlikely to see a crash of more than 33% anymore.  So are you saying that I was right now?  ;)

(The reason being that virtually everyone on this board would buy if the price got into the $700s, myself included.)

If a crash is to happen as typically as they do, you would have no fiat to spend in the $700's as you would have been buying as the price rose to the moon 5 minutes beforehand..........

The crash from 266->50 was more than 75%, so I think the magnitude will decrease but -75% remains very much of a possibility (after a real rally of course).

For now, I think $0.8 is the floor so I adviced the newcomers to buy because they will not likely gain much by waiting.

But, but ThisTimeIsDifferent^TM

In 2011 the peak was 30x base with a 90+% correction. In April 2013 peak was 20x base with 80% correction. The rally now is from about $125 to $1200 which is 9.5x base. So a 80% correction is not on the cards. Maybe 50%. But we have already seen a 30% correction this week.  So perhaps the 30% was enough for the market.

If it gets to $2000 then that would be 16x base and a larger correction from that is likely, but perhaps back to $1000 minimum.

Can you provide further details as to what this think tank is and its purpose.

I think game is changing. Coins moved from child's hands into investor's hands and they will hold few years.

Maybe it's the opposite?  Big investors that revealed big holdings were all way before last month.  This huge jump is perhaps a short squeeze of new kids jumping in?  Notice that the big holders like rpietila were net sellers not buyers.  Also some super big holders that revealed before are sitting on tens of millions in gained value and even if they diversify by selling 10%-20% of their total it's a big amount compared to the chart before where 700-now was less then 200million total.  Of course china has lots of fiat and they love to gamble.

This is true, many now recognize the potential of Bitcoin and it is much more likely Bitcoin succeeds as worldwide payment network replacing expensive western union business

Bitcoin is bigger then western union right now already.

or it's not and this is a bubble.

Bitcoin is invention of the century. It is much bigger than WU.

or it's not and this is a bubble.

(I like how this works every time, I think I might try making that my standard response to these kind of posts :))

I guess ElectricMucus doesn't have to worry to much about capital gains
hes been a bear since 2011
 :D

Why would you think I don't take my profit out of bubbles? I think you know me well enough and seen enough of my serious posts to know that I do. ;)