Rally from $500 happened on very low volume, crash looming?

[wobber]

What do you mean

There is very much logic in my writings, but in order to follow it, you have to spend 30 minutes per day just by following and thinking about me. Because most people are unwilling to do it, they only get a part of the message, and it is dangerous to act upon incomplete logic.

Just haven't found a way to do it any other way  Even if I write very perfect guides on all things Bitcoin, I cannot make people follow every aspect of them, and the result will be in their hand anyway.

I actually started reading ALL your posts 2 days ago. And doing some background checks on you.

[rpietila]

What do you mean

There is very much logic in my writings, but in order to follow it, you have to spend 30 minutes per day just by following and thinking about me. Because most people are unwilling to do it, they only get a part of the message, and it is dangerous to act upon incomplete logic.

Just haven't found a way to do it any other way  Even if I write very perfect guides on all things Bitcoin, I cannot make people follow every aspect of them, and the result will be in their hand anyway.

I actually started reading ALL your posts 2 days ago. And doing some background checks on you.

Cool! I have a website registered on my name, but the blog format imho is not as good as a forum. I will perhaps still put it online in comments-disabled mode where I (my editor) polish the threads/articles from this forum in the easily digestible mode. I mean, this forum is very organic food but therefore contains also joints, sinews, bones and whatnot.

In addition is my thinktank group, which has several interested people but is not organized yet.

Also my supernode has been disabled since May, but when that comes back online, oh boy 

[maz]

Current trend looks like its playing exactly as explained by Drew on trading view: https://www.tradingview.com/v/sSmoerF3/

I've been feeling like this since the start of the weekend, this rally has no more steam left, the late comers to the party have had their 'new money' released onto the exchanges and we are having a last gasp attempt at pushing up, all the media hype has been exhausted, the 6 month break from Aprils ATH built up pressure and we had to release it, but it feels like its expended now.

I would be really surprised if we don't end up the way that chart has predicted.

[rpietila]

Where is your buy target? $500?

If so, it is good to remember that $500 was first time ever breached in any exchange 17 days ago. That is so long that surely it will not happen ever again (Yes I know everybody was considering it an insanely high price back then, as well as $400 a few days before)

My decision to go back to the bull camp was after the last weekend crash, because it seems that sentiment could not be damaged by whatever crooked tricks some pulled from their hats and wallets, and the most the price could crash was -30%, and China barely budged.

The article may be right at most in the blind chicken -level, because he seems to have no understanding in bitcoin fundamentals and therefore all his data is wrong.

[maz]

Where is your buy target? $500?

If so, it is good to remember that $500 was first time ever breached in any exchange 17 days ago. That is so long that surely it will not happen ever again (Yes I know everybody was considering it an insanely high price back then, as well as $400 a few days before)

My decision to go back to the bull camp was after the last weekend crash, because it seems that sentiment could not be damaged by whatever crooked tricks some pulled from their hats and wallets, and the most the price could crash was -30%, and China barely budged.

The article may be right at most in the blind chicken -level, because he seems to have no understanding in bitcoin fundamentals and therefore all his data is wrong.

I don't have a buy target per say, but I will judge the momentum of the drop and adjust my buy-in accordingly. I use QT-Trader bot with various rules so when I'm satisfied we have passed a figure that would net me a nice amount of coins I will enable the rule and buy everything below a certain price. With recent events in mind, I would be pleased with anything below $700, and very pleased below $600.

[oakpacific]

Where is your buy target? $500?

If so, it is good to remember that $500 was first time ever breached in any exchange 17 days ago. That is so long that surely it will not happen ever again (Yes I know everybody was considering it an insanely high price back then, as well as $400 a few days before)

My decision to go back to the bull camp was after the last weekend crash, because it seems that sentiment could not be damaged by whatever crooked tricks some pulled from their hats and wallets, and the most the price could crash was -30%, and China barely budged.

The article may be right at most in the blind chicken -level, because he seems to have no understanding in bitcoin fundamentals and therefore all his data is wrong.

We have much to thank the dinosaur banks for the current price, by making the life of anyone trying to cash out difficult, they force the money to stay in Bitcoin, otoh, by trying to throttle the inflow of money, they prevent the mania from overheating, this maybe why the Bitcoin market looks so different from that of other equities.

As if they are not done with doing good, the capital control even tackles the adoption problem, without means of conversion to fiats, people have to seek the help of millions of merchants to move their money out, which indirectly fosters the growth of Bitcoin business, and aids the demise of banks themselves.

Yet if they unleash the control, Bitcoin will still soar with its newly gained legitimacy.

Reminds me of this old Latin sentence by Vigil "Fata viam invenient", like fate, Bitcoin will always find a way.

[rpietila]

Where is your buy target? $500?

If so, it is good to remember that $500 was first time ever breached in any exchange 17 days ago. That is so long that surely it will not happen ever again (Yes I know everybody was considering it an insanely high price back then, as well as $400 a few days before)

My decision to go back to the bull camp was after the last weekend crash, because it seems that sentiment could not be damaged by whatever crooked tricks some pulled from their hats and wallets, and the most the price could crash was -30%, and China barely budged.

The article may be right at most in the blind chicken -level, because he seems to have no understanding in bitcoin fundamentals and therefore all his data is wrong.

I don't have a buy target per say, but I will judge the momentum of the drop and adjust my buy-in accordingly. I use QT-Trader bot with various rules so when I'm satisfied we have passed a figure that would net me a nice amount of coins I will enable the rule and buy everything below a certain price. With recent events in mind, I would be pleased with anything below $700, and very pleased below $600.

I just arranged the tea leaves such that the probability of a crash to anything below $800 is so small that it makes more sense to buy in now with the funds that were speculatively sold. So in total I bought about BTC225 this week, the speculative position was never so big really. So now I'm fine if it goes up or stays, but even if the drop to $500 happens, I get to buy back + keep the castle in Estonia. Not bad, except the part to buy back the short at higher prices. And even that I played solidly, bitcoin was stronger, but hate to admit that trolls were right.

Trolls: you realize how many millions you have lost by your bad decision to not buy bitcoin with strong funds when you first saw it??

[maz]

Where is your buy target? $500?

If so, it is good to remember that $500 was first time ever breached in any exchange 17 days ago. That is so long that surely it will not happen ever again (Yes I know everybody was considering it an insanely high price back then, as well as $400 a few days before)

My decision to go back to the bull camp was after the last weekend crash, because it seems that sentiment could not be damaged by whatever crooked tricks some pulled from their hats and wallets, and the most the price could crash was -30%, and China barely budged.

The article may be right at most in the blind chicken -level, because he seems to have no understanding in bitcoin fundamentals and therefore all his data is wrong.

I don't have a buy target per say, but I will judge the momentum of the drop and adjust my buy-in accordingly. I use QT-Trader bot with various rules so when I'm satisfied we have passed a figure that would net me a nice amount of coins I will enable the rule and buy everything below a certain price. With recent events in mind, I would be pleased with anything below $700, and very pleased below $600.

I just arranged the tea leaves such that the probability of a crash to anything below $800 is so small that it makes more sense to buy in now with the funds that were speculatively sold. So in total I bought about BTC225 this week, the speculative position was never so big really. So now I'm fine if it goes up or stays, but even if the drop to $500 happens, I get to buy back + keep the castle in Estonia. Not bad, except the part to buy back the short at higher prices. And even that I played solidly, bitcoin was stronger, but hate to admit that trolls were right.

Trolls: you realize how many millions you have lost by your bad decision to not buy bitcoin with strong funds when you first saw it??

If your going to keep mentioning this castle, then at least make a thread in Off-Topic and get some pictures up so we can all admire it......otherwise it never happened

[BitchicksHusband]

Was that $200 last night a correction or the crash?  I believe that crashes will become less and less intense the more people involved in bitcoin, so I wouldn't expect to see much more than that at this point.

If $200 is the maximum downside, why is not all the money in the world buying bitcoins just now, and why is anyone selling at any price? 

I believe we will see -75% crash again. The one 2 weeks back was -50%.

I have predicted in other threads that we would be unlikely to see a crash of more than 33% anymore.  So are you saying that I was right now? 

(The reason being that virtually everyone on this board would buy if the price got into the $700s, myself included.)

[maz]

Was that $200 last night a correction or the crash?  I believe that crashes will become less and less intense the more people involved in bitcoin, so I wouldn't expect to see much more than that at this point.

If $200 is the maximum downside, why is not all the money in the world buying bitcoins just now, and why is anyone selling at any price? 

I believe we will see -75% crash again. The one 2 weeks back was -50%.

I have predicted in other threads that we would be unlikely to see a crash of more than 33% anymore.  So are you saying that I was right now? 

(The reason being that virtually everyone on this board would buy if the price got into the $700s, myself included.)

If a crash is to happen as typically as they do, you would have no fiat to spend in the $700's as you would have been buying as the price rose to the moon 5 minutes beforehand..........

[rpietila]

The crash from 266->50 was more than 75%, so I think the magnitude will decrease but -75% remains very much of a possibility (after a real rally of course).

For now, I think $0.8 is the floor so I adviced the newcomers to buy because they will not likely gain much by waiting.

[solex]

The crash from 266->50 was more than 75%, so I think the magnitude will decrease but -75% remains very much of a possibility (after a real rally of course).

For now, I think $0.8 is the floor so I adviced the newcomers to buy because they will not likely gain much by waiting.

But, but ThisTimeIsDifferent^TM

In 2011 the peak was 30x base with a 90+% correction. In April 2013 peak was 20x base with 80% correction. The rally now is from about $125 to $1200 which is 9.5x base. So a 80% correction is not on the cards. Maybe 50%. But we have already seen a 30% correction this week.  So perhaps the 30% was enough for the market.

If it gets to $2000 then that would be 16x base and a larger correction from that is likely, but perhaps back to $1000 minimum.

[kdrop22]

What do you mean

There is very much logic in my writings, but in order to follow it, you have to spend 30 minutes per day just by following and thinking about me. Because most people are unwilling to do it, they only get a part of the message, and it is dangerous to act upon incomplete logic.

Just haven't found a way to do it any other way  Even if I write very perfect guides on all things Bitcoin, I cannot make people follow every aspect of them, and the result will be in their hand anyway.

I actually started reading ALL your posts 2 days ago. And doing some background checks on you.

Cool! I have a website registered on my name, but the blog format imho is not as good as a forum. I will perhaps still put it online in comments-disabled mode where I (my editor) polish the threads/articles from this forum in the easily digestible mode. I mean, this forum is very organic food but therefore contains also joints, sinews, bones and whatnot.

In addition is my thinktank group, which has several interested people but is not organized yet.

Also my supernode has been disabled since May, but when that comes back online, oh boy 

Can you provide further details as to what this think tank is and its purpose.

[Odalv]

The crash from 266->50 was more than 75%, so I think the magnitude will decrease but -75% remains very much of a possibility (after a real rally of course).

For now, I think $0.8 is the floor so I adviced the newcomers to buy because they will not likely gain much by waiting.

I think game is changing. Coins moved from child's hands into investor's hands and they will hold few years.

[User705]

The crash from 266->50 was more than 75%, so I think the magnitude will decrease but -75% remains very much of a possibility (after a real rally of course).

For now, I think $0.8 is the floor so I adviced the newcomers to buy because they will not likely gain much by waiting.

I think game is changing. Coins moved from child's hands into investor's hands and they will hold few years.

Maybe it's the opposite?  Big investors that revealed big holdings were all way before last month.  This huge jump is perhaps a short squeeze of new kids jumping in?  Notice that the big holders like rpietila were net sellers not buyers.  Also some super big holders that revealed before are sitting on tens of millions in gained value and even if they diversify by selling 10%-20% of their total it's a big amount compared to the chart before where 700-now was less then 200million total.  Of course china has lots of fiat and they love to gamble.

[oyeTorry]

I think game is changing. Coins moved from child's hands into investor's hands and they will hold few years.

This is true, many now recognize the potential of Bitcoin and it is much more likely Bitcoin succeeds as worldwide payment network replacing expensive western union business

[User705]

I think game is changing. Coins moved from child's hands into investor's hands and they will hold few years.

This is true, many now recognize the potential of Bitcoin and it is much more likely Bitcoin succeeds as worldwide payment network replacing expensive western union business

Bitcoin is bigger then western union right now already.

[ElectricMucus]

I think game is changing. Coins moved from child's hands into investor's hands and they will hold few years.

This is true, many now recognize the potential of Bitcoin and it is much more likely Bitcoin succeeds as worldwide payment network replacing expensive western union business

Bitcoin is bigger then western union right now already.

or it's not and this is a bubble.

[Odalv]

I think game is changing. Coins moved from child's hands into investor's hands and they will hold few years.

This is true, many now recognize the potential of Bitcoin and it is much more likely Bitcoin succeeds as worldwide payment network replacing expensive western union business

Bitcoin is bigger then western union right now already.

or it's not and this is a bubble.

Bitcoin is invention of the century. It is much bigger than WU.

[ElectricMucus]

I think game is changing. Coins moved from child's hands into investor's hands and they will hold few years.

This is true, many now recognize the potential of Bitcoin and it is much more likely Bitcoin succeeds as worldwide payment network replacing expensive western union business

Bitcoin is bigger then western union right now already.

or it's not and this is a bubble.

Bitcoin is invention of the century. It is much bigger than WU.

or it's not and this is a bubble.

(I like how this works every time, I think I might try making that my standard response to these kind of posts )