Bitcoin Forum

Some people are gonna get fucked so badly in the coming days/weeks.

Good for you if you made a profit playing the market. But most people who do that lose. Holding over 6 months or more is as safe a strategy as they come, and gives better ROI than anything else currently available.

Holding 6 months from 32 in June 2011 gave you a ROI of -94%.

http://www.sierrachart.com/image.php?l=1384911782547.png

If you mined 10,000 BTC back in 2009 & held until now you would be a multi-millionaire. Wait..some are..lol

Things have sped up a bit though

I think if you are interested in bitcoin it would be fine to dollar cost average into it. But don't buy a huge bulk of it here as it could go a lot lower.

Its a different animal now. Many people just learned about bitcoin. No way its going to drop 94% in the next year. 2014 is going to be an interesting year as there are many people jumping in on the game. New currencies take time to develop and gain traction. Nothing is even close to bitcoin now, its been getting major publicity worldwide. Pretty much everyone has heard of it as this point. Whether they know what it is or not. It will get back up there pretty fast after it falls. Someone just bought a 7m dollar house in Vegas with bitcoin. Its being used...

I believe once China gets priced out of the system and the new year hits, Bitcoin will fare quite well.

No.

When Hash rates peak and show a decline THAT is your unambiguous signal to GTFO, you will likely have already lost your shirt but a peak in hashing is the signal that mining has hit the wall in profitability and miners are consuming as much electricity as they are earning from mining, that means consistent daily selling pressure of 3600 coins per day which will do to prices what you see in Blitz's graph.  

Now their will still a long way from seeing mining profitability fully squeezed out, at least on the ongoing electricity costs, but I suspect we will be getting close to the 'can never repay hardware costs' point fairly soon and that will hugely slow the growth in hash rates.

Do you even know what you're talking about?

Did you actually try to analyze every possible strategy that could've been done and came up with the conclusion that what you just claimed is true or are you just talking nonsense?

Maybe you should consider buying some brains with whatever you have left of your Bitcoins before its value goes down even further

Yeah, it will be great. I'm looking forward to buying some cheaper coins. Might have to wash the blood off some of them as some people have been slaughtered by the falling price.

Muahahahahaha!!!!!!!!!!!!

:D

You are looking forward to buy when? At 100$?

I'd argue that the people who are gonna get fucked are the ones that sold.  The longer the price stays low, the more people that will get fucked.  Why?  While the price drops and hangs out around $400, demand is still increasing.  Fiat is still slowly turning to garbage, the number of shops accepting Bitcoin is still increasing.  The increase of supply is overpowering the increase of demand in terms of rate at the moment because people are panicking, but the longer this happens, the sharper the upswing will be when the turnaround happens, the higher it will go, and the more people who will be left behind again.

I am not sure if people are too emotionally and personal-ideologically invested in cryptocurrency to see the simple truth: What has been made can be broken. One way or another.

Your infinite belief in the almighty power of crypto seems some what slanted.


I do believe crypto has a place, but I don't think anyone should believe for a moment they created a god's silver bullet against the 'tyranny' of fiat.

There will always be those who hold power and those who do not. 'RAH RAH RAH FITE DA POWA' ain't going to cut it.

Correction: Buying and holding is the best strategy for people who want to be able to sleep and a have life (but not the most profitable).

I don't believe its power is infinite.  I believe that it might not work out.  It's the HOW that I can't see.  Even if it's banned by every single government I doubt that would stop it.  The only thing that comes to mind is total energy cost to maintain the system, but then we've also got proof of stake should proof of work end up too costly...

LMAO!

ya YOU will!

You mean those who hold bitcoins and those who don't?  :P

Yep he envisions his destiny :) All the stoopid impatient children who will get out now, I pity them. And then the next wave of them will come, at high four digits, as they always do. They will say "man, I wish I was here when coins were three digits"  but then they will sell all on the first dip :) Bitcoin can't make everyone rich though, and that's fine with me that cowards don't profit.

lol @ daytraders stuck behind a computer all day panicing over the same thing that happens every week for 1 LTC gains. buying & holding doesnt get you fuct, only buying and selling at a loss does.

Actually day traders live for days like this one and they are the only ones that don't panic. Don't judge buy the fud they spread to forums etc to leverage their positions...

i could imagine the ones with leverage (large bankrolls) do pretty well.  gotta have money to make money.

I couldn't agree more, it's great to see the price drop. It's a pity it's only really an intraday swing rather than a more sustained depreciation. I'm still waiting for people to moan, howl and complain. You know it's definitely time to buy when people start running around the forum shouting, "The end of the world is nigh."

Doesn't look like that day is today though, have to be content with the sweet volatility, there's nothing quite like BTC for indeterminable price action :D

I remember this after april when I tried to convince few people to jump in just after crash. They looked at me like I was the most naive and dumb person in the world.
I believe they regretted later, but at least at this point  they have a bit of  fun. We will see for  how long..

A true long time holder buys a Lambo when he's sad.

I am not going to argue that for every investment at every point in time that buy and hold is correct and if you believe Bitcoin will eventually cease to exist or it has grown as much as it can then it is a bad strategy for you, but many studies using real data have shown that it is often a highly effective strategy.  

Here's one:

http://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/odean/papers/returns/Individual_Investor_Performance_Final.pdf

From the conclusion:

'Active investment strategies will under perform passive investment strategies. Overconfident investors will overestimate the value of their private information, causing them to trade too actively and, consequently, to earn below-average returns. Consistent with these behavioural models of investor overconfidence, we provide empirical evidence that households, which hold about half of U.S. equities,trade too much, on average. Those who trade the most are hurt the most.'

It should be noted that Bitcoin trading has much lower fees and lower barriers to trade than the traditional stock market.  This should lessen the pain of overactive trading, but as a quid pro quo it probably also contributes significantly to the price volatility which makes making the optimal decision at any one time exceedingly difficult.

The only ones who are going to get fucked badly are those who panic sell at a big loss right now. Most people will get screwed by the expert traders if they try to trade, buying and holding is always the best strategy for them. Nothing wrong with taking profits though, if everybody would take their initial investment and some profits out as the price goes up we would never see this kind of panic. Oh well periods like this are good for the distribution of coins. :)

It's still a good strategy. Whether it's the "best" strategy just depends on exactly when you buy.

Holding 6 months and then sell does not count as Buy and Hold. Holding it until now counts, and its ROI is more than 20000%.

I know two things. So far none of those bubbles we saw were identical. This one will be different too. And I hope people didn't expected, they will become rich by investing in bitcoins that easy. You have to hold through this bubbles like early adopters did. Don't listen to trolls.

dudes, I is survivor from tech stock bubble of late 90's. I was reading sites like Motley Fool who were saying that Buy and Hold was the only strategy to go. What a fucking disaster! Now I know that buy and hold is a very weak strategy, mainly being that there is no clearly defined exit plan and no idea of time horizons either. do not listen to buy and hold spouters, they talking out their anus.

+1
BTC money apear very easy for people who invested nothing or near to nothing, They keep saying how fortunate I was ( When I expain that I enter market when price was considered very high, they  don't get it).

There is only one difference between us, I simply believe in system and this is hardest part for people to digest. I remember my path from disbelief to fascination. Now bitcoin is a part of my life.
Definitely I will be here to the very end  good or bad


buy and hold  dosn't  necesserly imply  that  you can't secure part of your profit
It  imply  that  you do not try  to desperetly  find  peaks  and  bottoms adding  to  volatily of the market
I  consider myself  buy and  hold  albait  I  have  some  play  money  and  I  alredy get some of my fiat profits
I will never transfer all my  btc  to  fiat, if anything I will trade them for another  crypto, this  make my buy and hold

So far buying even at ATH was very profitable after 1 year. Now we have 1/2 price of ATH, so buying now is definitively the way to go

Who believe that high price will not back? Demand on BTC still will take some time.

And not even for himself, but for his girlfriend.

OP wants cheap coins, giving a shot at creating panic to bring levels below $400 where he sold his coins..hehe

Weeks?  Weeks takes us into January.  I expect a new ATH in January.  We'll see about weeks.

You would have been very lucky if you cashed out of the tech bubble at the top.  Very few professionals managed it and many saw devastating losses, but at the same time, if you were playing the long game and investing gradually, you would have bought at the top, but also bought at the bottom.  To take one example, ARM shares peaked at about £1000 in 2001 and dropped all the way to about £50.  It took 12 years, but they topped £1000 again this year and reached a new high.  You could have been investing in a tech fund that took advantage of that growth and the growth of Google, Amazon, Apple and others, compounding interest for the last 10 years, or you could have sold at a loss, licked your wounds and tried something else, but that's always the choice.

I welcome any links to empirical studies that show that there is a better strategy for a long term investor than 'buy and hold'.  I try to keep an open mind, but prefer an evidence based investment strategy.

fuck me I bought ARM shares back in 1998 but fed up and sold them 2 years ago.

Bitcoin is not a stock. Also buy and hold doesn't mean you don't have any plan of taking profits at all. If I had listened to trolls like you back in April I would never be in the position I am now. If you think Bitcoin is a promising technology then it doesn't really matter when you buy. So many people in bitcoin are constantly flip flopping between being a day trader one day and a long term investor the next, without realizing that their horizons and strategies are completely different. You can do a little bit of both ofcourse, but at least seperate the two with a clearly defined plan or you'll make a mess of things.

I thought about it and the crashes helping distribute the coins more evenly. There will be many crashes when Bitcoin rises to 5 digit values in the next years this Im sure

dude, bitcoin may be a stock but its price is driven by the same factors as that drives all others like stocks, namely DEMAND and SUPPLY. there is only one thing that separates a winner from a loser in the game of making money, that is RISK CONTROL which encompasses CAPITAL CONTROL haar haar

btw dude, don't call anybody who disagrees with you a troll.you end up with head in sand that way. a troll is somebody who posts to cause offence and argument because he enjoys people getting riled up. i just say things as i see them. I have said before I am a bear until price drops to $100 then I am a bull again. what is trollish about that?

I called you a troll because you were claiming that those who advocate a buy and hold strategy are talking out of their ass. Maybe you don't really understand what buy and hold and long term investing means, but it surely is not buy and hold until forever without a plan. I am a 'buy and holder' myself and have already taken out my initial investment, so the only risk I'm taking right now is losing my profits. As a long term investor I'm not interested in short term fluctuations in price like we see now, why should I want to give my money and bitcoins away to the pro traders and manipulators out there? It's just not worth the time and stress, most people will lose money to the better traders out there so that's why I think a buy and hold strategy is simply better for most.

Good luck btw waiting for $100, I will quote this post again next year to see how that worked out for you. ;)

Bitcoin is not a specific stock; it may be compared to the overall bubble of tech stocks in the 90s, sure, but we are way past that - that was bitcoin bubble of 2011, when people overinvested before the technology was ready. Now, bitcoin is more like tech/internet stocks in 2004. Starting to become useful, and price growing due to all the potential. So yeah, for google in 2004 buy and hold may be a very nice damn strategy, if you have the balls to ignore minor dips along the way. The tech is solid, the future is bright.

Nothing wrong with buying and hold if you believe in bitcoin as a long-term investment.

The facts back it up. It was $10 to $20 a year ago.

Of course with the volatility you can make more with trading, but you can also lose a lot more. Most people are not good traders, however much they think they are.

But everyone needs an exit strategy, even long-term investors.

Its paid off for me. I mean I've dabbled in day trading a small bit, but for the most part I've been holding and doing VERY well if you ask me!

 

Well if I'd taken the plunge when I thought things were about to change radically then I'd probably have leveled out at the number of coins I have now. I would've won big and lost big.

There's the tale of the Hollywood exec who maintained that if he'd greenlighted all the films he'd rejected and vice versa he would've ended up pretty much in the exact same position.

If you're sharp enough to ride the waves then you have my admiration. I'll sit back and play the long game.

Shorting works particularly well in a bear market :)

I've sold a few BTC in the last 5 days, all locally, and I was lucky enough to talk with these guys for much more than 6 confirms.

I can say with a certainty that those 2 BTC or so are in strong hands. I don't care that I sold @ 900, 870, and 700, plus a few in the middle, It's all pure profit for me since I use the buy and hold strategy, only in those coins for $70ea. Buy and hold fails, you say?

LTC replenishes my BTC stash, and it does so exceptionally well still.

Fools rush in and make us money, fools rush out and lay the table for the rush to make us more money. Round and around we go, over and over.  

The only people that get burnt are those that buy high and sell low. They lose faith when it is on a down swing.

This has happened time and time again as it grows. It's not 1 or 2 times, it's literally thousands.

You are right. But unfortunately noobs tend to do exactly that, buy high (i.e. join the crowd when the value is racing up), and sell low (i.e. panic sell). Trading is not as easy at it looks.