Bitcoin Forum

I am a Johnny come lately Bitcoin speculator, getting in on around the 20th November, as Bitcoin was taking out new ATHs on a daily basis.

I have made a decent bit of money, both on the way up, and also on the way down.

On the latest brutal correction however, I mistimed by buy-in tranches horribly ($550) and ended up selling at $490. Had i held another hour or so, I could have broke even, and who knows, maybe in another few hours I could have made a profit. But I didn't. I lost, just like hundreds of thousands of others have lost. I am pretty annoyed with this and now have little appetite for trying to play the crashes and bounces in Bitcoin, of which their are undoubtedly many more to come. I am pissed off, despite the fact that i am still overall around 5K GBP up from under 1 months worth of trading. This makes me think how all those must be feeling who have indeed lost big.

In summation. Sentiment right now must be dropping through the basement and into a bottomless pit. Whilst I am sure that Bitcoin will have a lot of bouncing about to be done and thus further trading opportunities will present themselves, the law of averages in a bear market will dictate that an increasing number of traders/investors will get burned, thus being increasingly more likely to exit from the market, thus driving down the purchasing power, etc etc.

This brings me to the following weekly chart. At the very bottom of the screen, there is the RSI (slow stochastic). If you look back at the boom n crash of April 2013, it can be clearly seen that the RSI hit the roof, scraping along the top of it for a period of time, before hitting the basement and dragging along the bottom for a period of time. At any given point whilst the Slow Stochastic Indicator was scraping along the bottom, would have presented an excellent investment opportunity. Moving along to the Nov/Dec 2013 boom n crash, we can see a very similar pattern forming. For those who lack imagination, I have paintbrushed in the likely path the RSI will take in the near future. Make up your own minds what investment signals this provides.

http://img42.imageshack.us/img42/6357/g8cc.png (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/42/g8cc.png/)

It's so hard to say in this market, man.  I've been burned wayyyy too many times in this market, where I would have been fine if I just held.  I'm done day trading.

Not being funny mate but you are playing the stereotype perfectly. Typical newbie trying to justify their bad decisions with a post telling us how it's all going down to hell because they are butt-hurt that just took a big hit on their holdings. I've been on this forum for a couple years now and I've seen thousands of these posts.

I appreciate you may actually have a clue what you are talking about outside of Bitcoin, but everything I have read from you tells me that you really should not be trying to apply that knowledge to bitcoin, especially not using words like stochastic and analyzing chart patterns. It's no better than reading tea-leaves in a cup.

Never, ever invest in Dundee United.

Good job gents, I need not say more.

Sorry. Just joking about Dundee United  ;D

But seriously, just wait a few more days and then invest a bit for the "long" term (one year). Fuck day trading. Then no stress and I think a very good chance to make superb returns on Bitcoin.

Sorry to keep posting but I have to ask, did you really need the money back straight away? Because I think $500 is the real fair price for Bitcoin outside speculation (despite believing it would trade sideways at $700 for a couple of weeks due to speculation). I feel certain that in a few months $500 will seem cheap again.

You really can't afford to speak.

If I am not mistaken, you are on of those who have been calling bottom all the way down from $900. Are you not embarrassed to even post here?

My calls on the otherhand have been impeccable in terms of forecasting future direction, both on the way up from $400 when I first decided to pile funds into bitcoin and also on the way down from $1150 as I grew increasingly convinced a correction was coming. Sure some of my market timing has been a bit off, such as my very last trade, but overall I am a happy camper. I am ~ 5K GBP richer than I would be had I just stood and watched from the sidelines (as I did April 2013). A pittance to the profits I could have had, had I bit the bullet earlier, but hey, that is life as a Johnny Come Lately for you.

You on the otherhand, if you have been following your own advice, must be down a fkn powder keg by now. Afterall, the 5K GBP that I have must have come out of someone's pocket, perhaps it was yours?


As I have stated many times. I hate losing far more than I like winning.

I held my nerve to ride bounce from low $400s, but nasty pennant was forming at sub $500, and looking at every previous example of such a pennant since dive down from $800s gave me all the indications i needed, so I sold and swallowed the loss, in order to perform my #1 trading duty, to preserve my wealth. So happened that this pennant bucked the trend and the price broke instead of down.

Price is now $550 (Bitstamp), although I am still well in profit, I am indeed butt-hurt and have little appetite for day-trading Bitcoin in this environment and I imagine that my sentiment is reflecting that of the majority right now.Lets face it, no matter who you are, if you were 'in' bitcoin, you just lost big. I will now take a backseat and watch how Bitcoin handles China. I will most likely buy back in at some point with a view to holding for the long term, but with the China thing yet to play out, and the charts in the condition that they are in, that time certainly will not be right now, tomorrow, or the day after that.

Wake me up when we go below $200, then I might start scrutinising the charts more closely once again.

P.S. With the talent at Dundee United's disposal at the moment, I would suggest that Dundee United would be a good investment, or as good an investment as any football club can be.

And you had it so together in the last thread about China.  What happened?  I thought you were waiting until all that China money wave 2 killed the price again.  That could still happen you know.

Sure thing, Rip Van Winkle.

In a thread asking for predictions I made my first 'call' in a long time.... I'm not in the business of making wild claims.


Today I'm right. Only time will tell if I'm wrong.

I've been buying and spending BTC for years, I see the value, I'm not just here as a pure speculator as you are. I'm in the process of launching a bitcoin related business and will have invested a fair chunk of £ doing so. It's a gamble, so not much different to your trading, the difference is I'm betting on the technology and fundamental value rather than simple fact that it may go UP.

So forgive me if I get a bit aggravated at the newbs that come along having only just heard about Bitcoin getting butthurt because they see it fall from $1200-600 and then start making wild claims just stirring up the FUD. You've made a great point to tell everyone that you are out in every thread, what is the point? At this stage you just look like a fool who took a hit and is crying about it. If you are £5k up I see that as a great positive, you would be better served remembering that fact instead of pandering to your fears and trying to spread it around.

$200? Can't see that happening unless there is a cataclysmic bitcoin event like MTGOX getting hacked or some technical issue with the blockchain etc..  Bitcoin still has a long way to go, personally I think the U.S may just blow the next bubble. Coinbase took $25m in VC funding, the mood in the U.S seems to be quietly positive, these big bubbles hurt the perception but in 6 months we may have forgotten all about yesterday.

My top tip for wealth preservation... don't sell at a loss...

Mat, you suck at trading, admit it and move on. Too emotionally involved, can't think with a calm head, will lose all eventually. /thread

yeah I know exactly how you feel but everyone is right, you are obviously emotionally charged about the situation and perhaps placing too much emphasis on feeling like a 'winner' etc

No, everyone can't be right. You are wrong, for example.

I was talking about Mat being emotionally charged, not you keke

Comparing RSI to the price development in April on that chart you posted, you'll notice that by the time there was a significant dip on RSI, the crash had already happened and the market didn't slide down much any more. I'm not sure that's very useful data.

I agree that RSI(?) is a very useful indicator.

IMO, RSI(?) gauges the mood of the market more than anything,
and it is generally a good indicator for buy-ins,
but will not use it as indicator for sell-outs (especially for bitcoins)

Yeah it's a lagging indicator, it's only really useful in divergences, and even that is a probability thing.

At least you sold when the market went against you, albeit just a whipsaw.  Many traders don't have the guts to do that.

Firstly, I don't think you really understand markets. Technicals mean JACK SHIT! Ask yourself what a technical indicator really is. What is it? Seriously. It is a mathematical derivative of the relationship between price over time, and some indicators use volume too. An indicator indicates something. nothing more, nothing less. It has been derived from the price (over time). It doesn't mean anything. The price can do anything at any time, whether the stochastics indicate "over-bought" or "over-sold". Same for bollys, MAs, and whatever else bullshit indicator you want to use. It means NOTHING! Why is this? The market participants are human, and they react to events and the actions of other humans. These events are unpredictable, so why the hell use an indicator?

Regarding bitcoin, it's a market governed mostly by emotion with a significant chinese emotional contribution. How on earth you can derive meaning from that from a technical indicator I DON'T KNOW! You really need to do some soul searching and admit to yourself that you know nothing, like the wise old Socrates did in Athens.

You will probably ignore this advice but I don't give a shit, hopefully someone will get it.

What is RSI?

I played my hand very poorly here.

But you Piramida have no right to criticise anyone.

Had I listened to you a coupple of weeks back, I would be reduced to giving out hand-jobs in the gents toilets.

You are one of the biggest plonkers on this whole board:

"If you sell now at $1000, be prepared to buy back in at $1300" Piramida circa Dec 5 2013

But I never listened to you (or the majority of your fellow plonkers who keep making same sounds regardless of what is happening in reality), I listened to me and I am still heavily in profit for my one single month of trading in Bitcoin, instead of having realised a heavy loss, as you would have had me do.

lol...FU..retard.

With all that said, RSI on weekly chart is still reaching towards the floor. When/if it gets there, and if when it starts dragging along the bottom, then surely those will represent pretty good buy-in opportunities...depending on what other charts are saying.

Do I believe that we will see new lows.....After the slapping I have taken off the market, I have no sensible alternative but to admit I know nothing.

But am I buying in at this point?

Am I fuck!

                     100
RSI = 100 - --------
                    1 + RS

RS = Average Gain / Average Loss


First Average Gain = Sum of Gains over the past 14 periods / 14
First Average Loss = Sum of Losses over the past 14 periods / 14

from then on

Average Gain = [(previous Average Gain) x 13 + current Gain] / 14
Average Loss = [(previous Average Loss) x 13 + current Loss] / 14

If you made profit as you say then you didn't play poorly.

Surely it's the sum of your trades that counts, not the result of a single trade out of dozens?

If you want to go getting on your moral high horse about Bitcoin, I have spent fkn hundreds of them back in sub $10 and even sub $5 dollar days, thus providing the economic backbone for speculators to giddy back on....oh no, no speculating and turning a 10000% profit for me!

Do I win £5?

I called my shot yesterday horribly wrong, so today, you get to be Mr Smug-pants and point out you were right....but in doing so, you are simply entering into the same mindset that I stepped into as I began to string together a run of good calls, in the face of what has proven to be some very bad advice, given out by quite frankly the majority of people on here. Now you are 'predicting' the future based on some cherry picked news facts, but mostly based on 'what happened before'. How is that any different to what I done when I started this thread?

One thing I do believe with investing, is that an investor should be ready to treat all his ideas and opinions as 100% disposable. In that respect, it is actually harmful coming on sites like this and getting involved in slagging matches with other equally clueless idiots, as this results in a tendency to rally oneself under an opinion as though it were a 'coat of arms' and 'fight for it to the death.

In that respect, I am ready to admit that i was butt-hurt when I dreamt up this particular piece of tech analysis, and my emotions would have most certainly coloured my view.

On the otherhand, my 'forecast' did infact happen after both previous bubbles, and both previous bubbles had a period of recovery for a while, trending at around 50%-65% of previous high before the big slump kicked in.

You predict that in 6 months we will all forget that Dec 2013 even happened, just like in November 2013, we all forgot that April 2013 ever happened, or July 2011 before that. If your 'prediction' based entirely on past events is to come to pass, then there must surely exist the same chance that mine will do also.

Whatever.....I am out for now, the waters are too volatile and it surely be infested with sharks.


Like I tell everyone.

I hate losing so much more than I like winning.

I took a 900 GBP loss because my nerve went on the rebound from $380 to $550, when a pennant formation started forming at sub $500.

That 900GBP loss could now be 1500GBP profit.

I view my impulsive folly as having cost me over 2K.

I am stung, and I am not playing anymore for now.

Not only are you too emotional to trade, but you also lack ability to understand written english? This is not what I said, I just said I will talk to you once you buy at 1300. And I will.

That you completely missed what that meant is not really my problem, it's yours. The thing I said, and which went completely over your head, was that when you sell, be prepared to buy higher, because you will, eventually. Just as you demonstrated today. I was, in vain, trying to explain to you that selling all is a stupid idea. But fuck it, I'm done with you. You are too stupid and will lose all, so all my talking goes to nowhere.

you really didn't get burned that hard, or maybe you did? but the most important thing is to stop trading and hold to your coins now, when you face such a lost this is best strategy, the thing is that most of us posting these charts and some may tell you that they have an analyze "a good one" but to be honest If I learned something from Bitcoin is that it is unpredictable, you cannot predict directions , you can just speculate and get lucky.


 I started as a miner with my PC (a couple of ATI 5970, didn't mine much though) and the ASIC era forced me to stop mining ( BTW best decision ever) I decided to buy few bitcoins mostly between 10-130 $  I didn't spend so much money on buying which I regret today, at the time I thought I was late to the game. I didn't even take Bitcoins seriously or even searched the concept but I took time and read more about it and register on this board just than I knew what innovation I was missing... etc

but let me tell you about my first trade, long story short I managed to lose more than 30 BTC instantly on stupid moves..... but than I held to the rest of my bitcoins and it paid off, nowadays I do not daily trade, my last trade was a couple of days ago but before of that I was just holding ...


and I think this is what you should do as well, do not daily trade hold until you need the money really bad...   

As I say, I'm right _today_, and I acknowledge the fact that I may be wrong tomorrow. I'm not trying to win a pissing contest and I don't feel smug.

My opinions are just my opinions, I don't offer them up as fact like most of the asshats on here. It seems to me you are more clued up than most, as you've already analyzed and admitted a bit emotionally hit from the loss. That being said I think you need to think about why you are trading in the first place, you've made £5k so far, that's profit. A small loss on the way up is to be expected, success isn't a straight line it's up, down left and right. The trick is to make more than you lose. You got spooked a bit yesterday and are all doom and gloom because you made a mistake. Had you timed your sell better you would most likely be here today telling us why it's a great time to be trading.

Also, it's a shame because there have been 5-6 instances today when you could have made those losses back and then some if only you didn't spook yourself and get overly negative about a little bump in the road.

All very well if you got in at $100 or whatever, which I actually did, but sold at $340 just after a bit of a pullback in November. Regretting my decision right away with some degree of self-disgust, i then decided to get into Bitcoin proper (instead of paying LocalBitcoin premiums) and waited 10 days for a Bitstamp account, as Bitcoin took out ATH on a daily basis. To cut to the chase, I got in the game very late, and although I never knew when the top would come, I was under no delusion that buying to hold would be a wise game for me to play.

I had to trade to turn a profit.


Yeah cool....

I like your tone tbh. First time I replied to one of your posts, I mistook you for one the 'Bitcoin Nutters' who relentlessly troll anyone who suggests that the price might just go south and/or are spamming the message boards with inane Bitcoin to the moon drivel....which I find very distracting and aggravating when sometimes, the exact opposite is so patently obvious it just doesn't need explaining. The way I pounced on your posts, and indeed the posts of the endless hoards of Bitcoin nutters, is out of order, not least of all in the sense that getting emotionally involved in these sort of bun fights, results in a very bad trading mind set. Then again, being attacked for market forecasts that turned out accurate and resulted in me making money, or at least saving money, drives me fkn mental. If I listened to the mainstream of opinion on here, I would be about 60% or more underwater on 15K worth of principle that I have sitting in my Bitstamp account (this is half of all the capital I have). No laughing matter.

Now that I have calmed down, and am looking at the chart, I am sure that there will still be a bit of upside, but not enough to warrant the risks considering my low tolerance thershold for watching my capital go under water. From the chart, the recent crash and bounce is pretty much in harmony with what has went before. If we are to see a market reversal anytime soon, I suspect that the previous bottom will have to be tested once again, thus some excellent buying opportunities will present themselves once again whether the previous low is tested or actually broken right through, which is something I certainly would not rule out. With perhaps only the slightest hint of sour grapes over my recent poor trade, I am seeing nothing to suggest that it is all going to be upside from here and therefore, now to me just isn't a great buy in point.

If you have anything to say to that please do. I appreciate any kind of balanced and measured perspectives on the Bitcoin market...especially so from someone who just made a damn good call (you might be on a roll).

Buy high.
Sell low.

Everyone knows it.

At least you are straight to the point and aren't trying to dress up your mentalness with fancy analysis and grand theories.

Good Post!

awesome

I tried to get my Dad into Bitcoin two years ago and finally convinced him to buy at $31/coin. The price promptly tanked after the Big Hack at Mt Gox thatdrove the price down to 3$. I looked like a chump to my dad for 18 MONTHS before the April rally put him in the black. Now of course I've been vindicated, but only because Dad never even had the technical knowledge to withdraw. 18 months, Gentlemen. Buy an amount you can afford to not access for years and hold it. Even in a down market, Dad's up 2000% now. Just don't forget where you left it or how to get it back.

Well I have said many times I don't consider myself a trader, mostly just a spectator who's watched this ride many times. Although my trade volume this month has been through the roof.

I pulled out last night as MTGOX almost hit $750 ish. I think it's way too high after the recent 'crash' and low, I expect it will drop down again and have some buy orders in from 600->400. I think $500-600 is still a good price now in the medium term.

Agree with you 100% on this. Would like to add that indicators are derived from data in the PAST, and do not reflect the future. However, I wouldn't go as far as saying they don't mean anything, or completely useless.

I do not believe investors (bitcoin or otherwise) should make investment decisions based on ONE single indicator. If you follow several indicators, they do mean a lot. If most/all of them give you red flags, it is a "technical wake up call" to reconsider your position in the market. Your don't have to reposition, it just gives you warning.


Indicators do not predict the future. I use them to observe trends, gauge the sentiments, and I factor in recent/upcoming developments MYSELF. Think of indicators as thermometers, you have a few of them in different parts of the city to find out the overall city temperature, but none of them will tell you the temperature tomorrow.

Some good points in your post. Yes, I forgot to mention that most indicators are lagging. There are some non-lagging indicators (if they can be called indicators). Things like trendlines, envelopes, support/resistance lines. At the moment bitcoin does not lend itself to any kind of technical analysis. The market is too thin, the participants are too emotional and there are no substantial derivatives markets. The current participants are hyper-reactive to events and sentiments from government authorities, so using technical indicators to make decisions is simply delusional. Until more regulatory clarity comes in, and volume increases by orders of magnitude, bitcoin will remain extremely volatile and hence not suitable to TA.

People need to learn to read the price action to trade bitcoin, but better still is to really understand the technology and the implications. I, personally have a long-term view so don't trade it, I'm just hodling for a few years and in every panic sell, I buy more at the bid.

My charts look like this FWIW
https://i.imgur.com/hNZdlSt.png

that's the only certain way to profit in the adoption stage.

Bullish wedge! Only that it still needs to go much lower before resolving.

Because?

I have no idea which way it's going to go.

I'm hodling for the longest time.

I think most of us are with you on this. Most speculators lose money (but hey they also make money!)
I have been interested in trading for a few months and I regularly check indicators but at the end of the day indicators just describe a certain situation at a moment on time (that moment, not now!)
I think trading based on news and announcements is the way to go at this stage until the market grows further and can sustain itself.
And I wouldn't wait for any discount, I think $200 is very unlikely

If you already have some BTC, I think HODLING is the way to go at this stage. I'm hoping for another crash so I can add to my position, I think we will get one when the US releases some negative news regarding bitcoin. It will probably happen at some point...

Lets hope you are sitting online ready to buy when it happens then.

p.s this HODLING shit is getting old real quick. anyone using that term is going on my shit list for people who aren't worth talking to. Because anyone that has to incessantly repeat something like this as if it's funny isn't someone worth listening to.

I really think you should let that go. HODLING onto something like that isn't good for your stress levels.