The Technical Indicator that Matters!

[yenom]

Firstly, I don't think you really understand markets. Technicals mean JACK SHIT! Ask yourself what a technical indicator really is. What is it? Seriously. It is a mathematical derivative of the relationship between price over time, and some indicators use volume too. An indicator indicates something. nothing more, nothing less. It has been derived from the price (over time). It doesn't mean anything. The price can do anything at any time, whether the stochastics indicate "over-bought" or "over-sold". Same for bollys, MAs, and whatever else bullshit indicator you want to use. It means NOTHING! Why is this? The market participants are human, and they react to events and the actions of other humans. These events are unpredictable, so why the hell use an indicator?

Regarding bitcoin, it's a market governed mostly by emotion with a significant chinese emotional contribution. How on earth you can derive meaning from that from a technical indicator I DON'T KNOW! You really need to do some soul searching and admit to yourself that you know nothing, like the wise old Socrates did in Athens.

You will probably ignore this advice but I don't give a shit, hopefully someone will get it.

[elebit]

What is RSI?

[MatTheCat]

Mat, you suck at trading, admit it and move on. Too emotionally involved, can't think with a calm head, will lose all eventually. /thread

I played my hand very poorly here.

But you Piramida have no right to criticise anyone.

Had I listened to you a coupple of weeks back, I would be reduced to giving out hand-jobs in the gents toilets.

You are one of the biggest plonkers on this whole board:

"If you sell now at $1000, be prepared to buy back in at $1300" Piramida circa Dec 5 2013

But I never listened to you (or the majority of your fellow plonkers who keep making same sounds regardless of what is happening in reality), I listened to me and I am still heavily in profit for my one single month of trading in Bitcoin, instead of having realised a heavy loss, as you would have had me do.

lol...FU..retard.

With all that said, RSI on weekly chart is still reaching towards the floor. When/if it gets there, and if when it starts dragging along the bottom, then surely those will represent pretty good buy-in opportunities...depending on what other charts are saying.

Do I believe that we will see new lows.....After the slapping I have taken off the market, I have no sensible alternative but to admit I know nothing.

But am I buying in at this point?

Am I fuck!

[humanitee]

What is RSI?

                     100
RSI = 100 - --------
                    1 + RS

RS = Average Gain / Average Loss


First Average Gain = Sum of Gains over the past 14 periods / 14
First Average Loss = Sum of Losses over the past 14 periods / 14

from then on

Average Gain = [(previous Average Gain) x 13 + current Gain] / 14
Average Loss = [(previous Average Loss) x 13 + current Loss] / 14

[T.Stuart]

I played my hand very poorly here.

If you made profit as you say then you didn't play poorly.

Surely it's the sum of your trades that counts, not the result of a single trade out of dozens?

[MatTheCat]

In a thread asking for predictions I made my first 'call' in a long time.... I'm not in the business of making wild claims.

$400 would be my prediction. It might dip lower momentarily but I don't see it going below $400 average for any amount of time.

Today I'm right. Only time will tell if I'm wrong.

I've been buying and spending BTC for years, I see the value, I'm not just here as a pure speculator as you are. I'm in the process of launching a bitcoin related business and will have invested a fair chunk of £ doing so. It's a gamble, so not much different to your trading, the difference is I'm betting on the technology and fundamental value rather than simple fact that it may go UP.

So forgive me if I get a bit aggravated at the newbs that come along having only just heard about Bitcoin getting butthurt because they see it fall from $1200-600 and then start making wild claims just stirring up the FUD. You've made a great point to tell everyone that you are out in every thread, what is the point? At this stage you just look like a fool who took a hit and is crying about it. If you are £5k up I see that as a great positive, you would be better served remembering that fact instead of pandering to your fears and trying to spread it around.

$200? Can't see that happening unless there is a cataclysmic bitcoin event like MTGOX getting hacked or some technical issue with the blockchain etc..  Bitcoin still has a long way to go, personally I think the U.S may just blow the next bubble. Coinbase took $25m in VC funding, the mood in the U.S seems to be quietly positive, these big bubbles hurt the perception but in 6 months we may have forgotten all about yesterday.

If you want to go getting on your moral high horse about Bitcoin, I have spent fkn hundreds of them back in sub $10 and even sub $5 dollar days, thus providing the economic backbone for speculators to giddy back on....oh no, no speculating and turning a 10000% profit for me!

Do I win £5?

I called my shot yesterday horribly wrong, so today, you get to be Mr Smug-pants and point out you were right....but in doing so, you are simply entering into the same mindset that I stepped into as I began to string together a run of good calls, in the face of what has proven to be some very bad advice, given out by quite frankly the majority of people on here. Now you are 'predicting' the future based on some cherry picked news facts, but mostly based on 'what happened before'. How is that any different to what I done when I started this thread?

One thing I do believe with investing, is that an investor should be ready to treat all his ideas and opinions as 100% disposable. In that respect, it is actually harmful coming on sites like this and getting involved in slagging matches with other equally clueless idiots, as this results in a tendency to rally oneself under an opinion as though it were a 'coat of arms' and 'fight for it to the death.

In that respect, I am ready to admit that i was butt-hurt when I dreamt up this particular piece of tech analysis, and my emotions would have most certainly coloured my view.

On the otherhand, my 'forecast' did infact happen after both previous bubbles, and both previous bubbles had a period of recovery for a while, trending at around 50%-65% of previous high before the big slump kicked in.

You predict that in 6 months we will all forget that Dec 2013 even happened, just like in November 2013, we all forgot that April 2013 ever happened, or July 2011 before that. If your 'prediction' based entirely on past events is to come to pass, then there must surely exist the same chance that mine will do also.

Whatever.....I am out for now, the waters are too volatile and it surely be infested with sharks.

I played my hand very poorly here.

If you made profit as you say then you didn't play poorly.

Surely it's the sum of your trades that counts, not the result of a single trade out of dozens?

Like I tell everyone.

I hate losing so much more than I like winning.

I took a 900 GBP loss because my nerve went on the rebound from $380 to $550, when a pennant formation started forming at sub $500.

That 900GBP loss could now be 1500GBP profit.

I view my impulsive folly as having cost me over 2K.

I am stung, and I am not playing anymore for now.

[piramida]

I played my hand very poorly here.

But you Piramida have no right to criticise anyone.

Had I listened to you a coupple of weeks back, I would be reduced to giving out hand-jobs in the gents toilets.

You are one of the biggest plonkers on this whole board:

"If you sell now at $1000, be prepared to buy back in at $1300" Piramida circa Dec 5 2013

Not only are you too emotional to trade, but you also lack ability to understand written english? This is not what I said, I just said I will talk to you once you buy at 1300. And I will.

That you completely missed what that meant is not really my problem, it's yours. The thing I said, and which went completely over your head, was that when you sell, be prepared to buy higher, because you will, eventually. Just as you demonstrated today. I was, in vain, trying to explain to you that selling all is a stupid idea. But fuck it, I'm done with you. You are too stupid and will lose all, so all my talking goes to nowhere.

[mmitech]

you really didn't get burned that hard, or maybe you did? but the most important thing is to stop trading and hold to your coins now, when you face such a lost this is best strategy, the thing is that most of us posting these charts and some may tell you that they have an analyze "a good one" but to be honest If I learned something from Bitcoin is that it is unpredictable, you cannot predict directions , you can just speculate and get lucky.


 I started as a miner with my PC (a couple of ATI 5970, didn't mine much though) and the ASIC era forced me to stop mining ( BTW best decision ever) I decided to buy few bitcoins mostly between 10-130 $  I didn't spend so much money on buying which I regret today, at the time I thought I was late to the game. I didn't even take Bitcoins seriously or even searched the concept but I took time and read more about it and register on this board just than I knew what innovation I was missing... etc

but let me tell you about my first trade, long story short I managed to lose more than 30 BTC instantly on stupid moves..... but than I held to the rest of my bitcoins and it paid off, nowadays I do not daily trade, my last trade was a couple of days ago but before of that I was just holding ...


and I think this is what you should do as well, do not daily trade hold until you need the money really bad...   

[dg2010]

I called my shot yesterday horribly wrong, so today, you get to be Mr Smug-pants and point out you were right....but in doing so, you are simply entering into the same mindset that I stepped into as I began to string together a run of good calls, in the face of what has proven to be some very bad advice, given out by quite frankly the majority of people on here. Now you are 'predicting' the future based on some cherry picked news facts, but mostly based on 'what happened before'. How is that any different to what I done when I started this thread?

I am stung, and I am not playing anymore for now.

As I say, I'm right _today_, and I acknowledge the fact that I may be wrong tomorrow. I'm not trying to win a pissing contest and I don't feel smug.

My opinions are just my opinions, I don't offer them up as fact like most of the asshats on here. It seems to me you are more clued up than most, as you've already analyzed and admitted a bit emotionally hit from the loss. That being said I think you need to think about why you are trading in the first place, you've made £5k so far, that's profit. A small loss on the way up is to be expected, success isn't a straight line it's up, down left and right. The trick is to make more than you lose. You got spooked a bit yesterday and are all doom and gloom because you made a mistake. Had you timed your sell better you would most likely be here today telling us why it's a great time to be trading.

Also, it's a shame because there have been 5-6 instances today when you could have made those losses back and then some if only you didn't spook yourself and get overly negative about a little bump in the road.

[MatTheCat]

but let me tell you about my first trade, long story short I managed to lose more than 30 BTC instantly on stupid moves..... but than I held to the rest of my bitcoins and it paid off, nowadays I do not daily trade, my last trade was a couple of days ago but before of that I was just holding ...

and I think this is what you should do as well, do not daily trade hold until you need the money really bad...  

All very well if you got in at $100 or whatever, which I actually did, but sold at $340 just after a bit of a pullback in November. Regretting my decision right away with some degree of self-disgust, i then decided to get into Bitcoin proper (instead of paying LocalBitcoin premiums) and waited 10 days for a Bitstamp account, as Bitcoin took out ATH on a daily basis. To cut to the chase, I got in the game very late, and although I never knew when the top would come, I was under no delusion that buying to hold would be a wise game for me to play.

I had to trade to turn a profit.

As I say, I'm right _today_, and I acknowledge the fact that I may be wrong tomorrow. I'm not trying to win a pissing contest and I don't feel smug.

My opinions are just my opinions, I don't offer them up as fact like most of the asshats on here. It seems to me you are more clued up than most, as you've already analyzed and admitted a bit emotionally hit from the loss. That being said I think you need to think about why you are trading in the first place, you've made £5k so far, that's profit. A small loss on the way up is to be expected, success isn't a straight line it's up, down left and right. The trick is to make more than you lose. You got spooked a bit yesterday and are all doom and gloom because you made a mistake. Had you timed your sell better you would most likely be here today telling us why it's a great time to be trading.

Also, it's a shame because there have been 5-6 instances today when you could have made those losses back and then some if only you didn't spook yourself and get overly negative about a little bump in the road.

Yeah cool....

I like your tone tbh. First time I replied to one of your posts, I mistook you for one the 'Bitcoin Nutters' who relentlessly troll anyone who suggests that the price might just go south and/or are spamming the message boards with inane Bitcoin to the moon drivel....which I find very distracting and aggravating when sometimes, the exact opposite is so patently obvious it just doesn't need explaining. The way I pounced on your posts, and indeed the posts of the endless hoards of Bitcoin nutters, is out of order, not least of all in the sense that getting emotionally involved in these sort of bun fights, results in a very bad trading mind set. Then again, being attacked for market forecasts that turned out accurate and resulted in me making money, or at least saving money, drives me fkn mental. If I listened to the mainstream of opinion on here, I would be about 60% or more underwater on 15K worth of principle that I have sitting in my Bitstamp account (this is half of all the capital I have). No laughing matter.

Now that I have calmed down, and am looking at the chart, I am sure that there will still be a bit of upside, but not enough to warrant the risks considering my low tolerance thershold for watching my capital go under water. From the chart, the recent crash and bounce is pretty much in harmony with what has went before. If we are to see a market reversal anytime soon, I suspect that the previous bottom will have to be tested once again, thus some excellent buying opportunities will present themselves once again whether the previous low is tested or actually broken right through, which is something I certainly would not rule out. With perhaps only the slightest hint of sour grapes over my recent poor trade, I am seeing nothing to suggest that it is all going to be upside from here and therefore, now to me just isn't a great buy in point.

If you have anything to say to that please do. I appreciate any kind of balanced and measured perspectives on the Bitcoin market...especially so from someone who just made a damn good call (you might be on a roll).

[oldmarsh]

Buy high.
Sell low.

Everyone knows it.

[MatTheCat]

Buy high.
Sell low.

Everyone knows it.

At least you are straight to the point and aren't trying to dress up your mentalness with fancy analysis and grand theories.

Good Post!

[billyjoeallen]

Most speculators lose money. Day trading Bitcoin is like juggling running chainsaws, on a tightrope, over a pit of boiling acid.

awesome

[billyjoeallen]

I tried to get my Dad into Bitcoin two years ago and finally convinced him to buy at $31/coin. The price promptly tanked after the Big Hack at Mt Gox thatdrove the price down to 3$. I looked like a chump to my dad for 18 MONTHS before the April rally put him in the black. Now of course I've been vindicated, but only because Dad never even had the technical knowledge to withdraw. 18 months, Gentlemen. Buy an amount you can afford to not access for years and hold it. Even in a down market, Dad's up 2000% now. Just don't forget where you left it or how to get it back.

[dg2010]

If you have anything to say to that please do. I appreciate any kind of balanced and measured perspectives on the Bitcoin market...especially so from someone who just made a damn good call (you might be on a roll).

Well I have said many times I don't consider myself a trader, mostly just a spectator who's watched this ride many times. Although my trade volume this month has been through the roof.

I pulled out last night as MTGOX almost hit $750 ish. I think it's way too high after the recent 'crash' and low, I expect it will drop down again and have some buy orders in from 600->400. I think $500-600 is still a good price now in the medium term.

[medUSA]

It doesn't mean anything. It is a mathematical derivative of the relationship between price over time, and some indicators use volume too. An indicator indicates something. nothing more, nothing less. It has been derived from the price (over time)

Agree with you 100% on this. Would like to add that indicators are derived from data in the PAST, and do not reflect the future. However, I wouldn't go as far as saying they don't mean anything, or completely useless.

I do not believe investors (bitcoin or otherwise) should make investment decisions based on ONE single indicator. If you follow several indicators, they do mean a lot. If most/all of them give you red flags, it is a "technical wake up call" to reconsider your position in the market. Your don't have to reposition, it just gives you warning.

The market participants are human, and they react to events and the actions of other humans. These events are unpredictable, so why the hell use an indicator?

Indicators do not predict the future. I use them to observe trends, gauge the sentiments, and I factor in recent/upcoming developments MYSELF. Think of indicators as thermometers, you have a few of them in different parts of the city to find out the overall city temperature, but none of them will tell you the temperature tomorrow.

[yenom]

Indicators do not predict the future. I use them to observe trends, gauge the sentiments, and I factor in recent/upcoming developments MYSELF. Think of indicators as thermometers, you have a few of them in different parts of the city to find out the overall city temperature, but none of them will tell you the temperature tomorrow.

Some good points in your post. Yes, I forgot to mention that most indicators are lagging. There are some non-lagging indicators (if they can be called indicators). Things like trendlines, envelopes, support/resistance lines. At the moment bitcoin does not lend itself to any kind of technical analysis. The market is too thin, the participants are too emotional and there are no substantial derivatives markets. The current participants are hyper-reactive to events and sentiments from government authorities, so using technical indicators to make decisions is simply delusional. Until more regulatory clarity comes in, and volume increases by orders of magnitude, bitcoin will remain extremely volatile and hence not suitable to TA.

People need to learn to read the price action to trade bitcoin, but better still is to really understand the technology and the implications. I, personally have a long-term view so don't trade it, I'm just hodling for a few years and in every panic sell, I buy more at the bid.

My charts look like this FWIW

[piramida]

I, personally have a long-term view so don't trade it, I'm just hodling for a few years and in every panic sell, I buy more at the bid.

that's the only certain way to profit in the adoption stage.

[zby]

...

My charts look like this FWIW

Bullish wedge! Only that it still needs to go much lower before resolving.

[yenom]

Only that it still needs to go much lower before resolving.

Because?

I have no idea which way it's going to go.