Bitcoin Forum

Here is some speculation...if bitcoin continues to grow exponentially then we'll see bitcoin hit $40 to $150 per bitcoin in the next rally.  Maybe it will happen in September.  See graph.   ;D

This is a logarithmic graph:

http://img847.imageshack.us/img847/6140/bitcoinspeculation2.jpg

I approve of this thread

that graph looks pretty  8)

I really like you speculation ;D ;D ;D , who wouldn't? :P

Nagle, Edward50, BtcEconomist and few others - what are they doing here I still have no idea

They have 20 dollars each and want to become bitcoin billionaires. So they are waiting for the price to drop to 1 cent or less, and are genuinely surprised that market does not agree with their wish.

+1

Rofl, I really didn't expect an answer and specially some persons that wouldn't like it. :D

But your graph implies the wrong thing. IF the low resistance in your graph is read correctly it would go to 7 first before raising again.

cheater  ;D 

For bitcoin to continue to grow exponentially at an average rate of 10% or so a month the currency we use would have to as well

not happening

but we can dream

?!?!? the value of the US dollar has nothing (well not that much) to do with the value of BTC. all it really comes down to is supply and demand.. if there are more people buying bitcoins then selling them, then the price is raised.

this is true, but i'm not sure how much people will continually demand it like gold is being demanded.  we're gonna peak soon with gold and with bitcoin.

why would we peak with bitcoin?? ur not making anysense

for the same reason you peak with gold: fear of inflation/devaluation of cash holdings decreasing.  exactly the same as what happened to gold after 1980.  the reason bitcoin is popular (aside from being novel) is everyone's fear of inflation because of european/american debt problems.  as a deflationary commodity supply of bitcoin can never be excessively increased, so in times of inflation fears it appears more attractive than cash holdings because it may retain its value better until the fear of inflationary crisis is resolved.

no one can say for sure exactly why people are buying bitcoins.

If it really was that smart of a reason, then the people who saw the appeal in bitcoin for that reason would also see the appeal in bitcoin in how its decentralized and secure and everything and how the current monetary system is flawed.

but I highly doubt the average bitcoin buyer actually would think that much (if they did, they would never sell and always hold, simply because having USD or whatever as opposed to BTC is supporting a flawed system). All they see OMG THE PRICE IS GOING HIGHER I CAN BUY SUM AND SELL WHEN ITS REALLY HIGH DERP. or something like that...

How 'bout this?

http://img8.imageshack.us/img8/392/20110819205053.png

That would be acceptable.

One thing to consider though is that there was a paradigm shift where mining became profitable not for speculation but for direct selling. So this graph could be faulty as well.
I all depends on the masses mining on 300Mhash or less if they decide to sell the lower line would have to be placed against the start of exponential rise and the first low at USD 1. In that case resistance could even be at 4.

graphs are cool 8)

One thing you might look out for is the volume of cards appearing on ebay, if it were to increase we might be heading for another drop in price. If it dries out... well here you go  8)

If this doesn't say rally I don't know what does...

http://s1.postimage.org/1esnbgzcj/Bitcoin.png

That is the sweetest uptrend channel chart I've ever seen :)

Also, we're nearing the end of August. As some may know, I posted about the 'bubble' claims being invalidated if we were above $5 by then. We are certainly a good margin above that now.

Onward and upward, my friends!

Sounds like someone is feeling bullish  8)

Why should I think $5 is the threshold for whether bitcoin was in a bubble or not?  I'm sincerely asking.

You may be right.
Lets take a step back and look at the long term for a second.  When you think about the ultimate success or failure of bitcoin, I feel the question is more fundamental than that.

A) Can bitcoin attract enough buyers with deep pockets to continue the trend.
or
B) Can bitcoin achieve a sufficient level of adoption as a currency.

I feel the answer to (A) is no.  I don't think who is mining makes much difference in the long run.  The rate at which bitcoins are mined remains constant.  And hoarding will never create a healthy bitcoin economy.  For that reason I'd rather see thousands of plebes mining (and spending their coins) than a few large speculative operations hoarding.

The answer to (B) depends on entrepreneurial vendors in conjunction with the developer community using bitcoin (and marketing it) to sell products.

Right now bitcoin is still just an investment vehicle.  But I think the world financial climate is certainly ripe for (B).

Sure, in my post here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=26117.0

I talk about how bubbles have symmetry, where you take the buildup from the base to their peak, project forward in time and can get an idea of where they end.

Based on that, the end of the bitcoin bubble would have to be the end of August, with a price around $5.00, plus or minus a small percentage.

Because we are nearing that time, and the price hasn't lapsed to $5, I conclude we are not in a bubble, and things can progress normally.

That's it.

I missed that thread.  Interesting analysis.  Thanks for putting that together.