How 'bout this?
That would be acceptable.
One thing to consider though is that there was a paradigm shift where mining became profitable not for speculation but for direct selling. So this graph could be faulty as well.
I all depends on the masses mining on 300Mhash or less if they decide to sell the lower line would have to be placed against the start of exponential rise and the first low at USD 1. In that case resistance could even be at 4.
You may be right.
Lets take a step back and look at the long term for a second. When you think about the ultimate success or failure of bitcoin, I feel the question is more fundamental than that.
A) Can bitcoin attract enough buyers with deep pockets to continue the trend.
or
B) Can bitcoin achieve a sufficient level of adoption as a currency.
I feel the answer to (A) is no. I don't think who is mining makes much difference in the long run. The rate at which bitcoins are mined remains constant. And hoarding will never create a healthy bitcoin economy. For that reason I'd rather see thousands of plebes mining (and spending their coins) than a few large speculative operations hoarding.
The answer to (B) depends on entrepreneurial vendors in conjunction with the developer community using bitcoin (and marketing it) to sell products.
Right now bitcoin is still just an investment vehicle. But I think the world financial climate is certainly ripe for (B).
