Bitcoin Forum

This looks very bad for bitcoin. This manipulator that I have spoken so much about, just read any of my previous posts, that has increased the bid side of Bitcoin by probably over 100,000-200,000 bitcoins during the last few weeks, has seemed to pulled out!

This is huge, there is totally no support. Last time he pulled out we had plumetted to $5 dollars in no time. There are almost no bid walls anymore. Before today every .10 cents was walled with 2,000 to 3,000 bid wall, now it is down to the hundreds (or what it normally is without the manipulator).

I am not sure what the heck is going on or why this manipulator decided to pull out. But like I have been saying, there was no way that he could keep a floor on the bitcoin price by buying all the bitcoins coming into the market. Eventually this manipulator will pull out and it seems that he has after taking severe losses today.

This could honestly be a really bad down turn coming. It may even reach new lows. I hope most of you have sold when it was in the $11's and $12's like I recommended.

Without this manipulator who seemed to be the sole reason to keep the bitcoin price high since the fall from $30's, bitcoin price will finally settle to its real market price of around $2.00 - $5.00.

I will probably buy bitcoins only when the price finally stablizes around those levels, and only when it is obvious that the manipulator is not in the market. I do not trust a bitcoin price that is based on this single manipulator, as always happens when he pulls out the price plummets.

Just read my past posts and all is like i have been saying.

nobody pulled out, no fake bid walls, watched it live, was real selling through the 10-9.7 resistance all the way to low 9's

pretty sure the last time was due to fall out from mybitcoin and that exchange that lost it;s wallet.
This looks like fizzle from the people who expected rally after the conference and went heavy into BTC and now need to get out since it isnt going to 20 and pay rent.

IMO anyways.

but $5 btc would make me happy, but I'm always happy.

I see plenty of walls of support. Besides, looking at your previous posts shows you're just a guy constantly predicting gloom and doom. Booooring!

The real market value is over $30. Get some cheap while you can.

i have some buys setup around $5 - 6 just in case.

If it gets to $5-$6, I'll be buying a lot too.

I'm glad you are not the moderator.  Did you read the rules?  There seem to be none (refreshingly!)

The speculation board is all kinds of fun to watch and good for a cheap laugh when I am in need of a break.  Mostly it's just people trying to manipulate public perception to their own benefit...and probably with less success than they might be thinking they are having.

I normally agree but I think these ridiculous posts are getting a bit out of line even for the speculation board. So if I was a mod I would also do something.

only manipulator here is the OP author

You don't need to say author, OP can also mean original poster ;)

Is this not the speculation area of the forum? I am speculating that the price is going to fall and using hard facts like the bid side on mt. gox. losing 100,000 of bid orders in only a few hours. The price has also sunk from 11's all the way into the 9's.

This is huge, why would you want to delete posts like this?

I watch the bid order side on mt. gox multiple times a day. What I am seeing is a huge pullout.

But this is the speculation part of the forum, I always back up my claims with as much information as possible, I see no reason why a moderator would want to delete this unless you guys want to hide the fact that things are looking very very bad if you currently own bitcoins.

On the bright side, at least it's something the dollar is getting stronger against.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=38658.0

Seems like a upswing is occurring  8) almost back to 10$
http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/

Gotta watch those upswings in a downtrend.  Hope you didn't buy on it.

I cannot seem to make up my mind if this weekend is going to be a downer or not.
Pretty good chance there will be more sellers then buyers if I had to guess so I am holding off.

I am just hoping it jumps up in the next 2 or 3 weeks.

The sky is falling! the sky is falling! Oh crap. Oh wait. It's still there.

This looks very bad for us. This manipulator that I have spoken so much about, just read any of my previous posts, that has increased the ask side of Bitcoin by probably over 10,000-20,000 bitcoins during the last few weeks, has seemed to pulled out!

This is huge, there is absolutely no supply. Last time he pulled out we had jumped to $30 dollars in no time. There are almost no ask walls anymore. Before today every .10 cents was walled with 2,000 to 3,000 ask wall, now it is down to the hundreds (or what it normally is without the manipulator).

I am not sure what the heck is going on or why this manipulator decided to pull out. But like I have been saying, there was no way that he could keep a ceiling on the bitcoin price by buying all the dollars coming into the market. Eventually this manipulator will pull out and it seems that he has after taking severe losses today.

This could honestly be a really bad rally coming. It may even reach new highs. I hope most of you have bought when it was in the $11's and $12's like I recommended.

Without this manipulator who seemed to be the sole reason to keep the bitcoin price low since the rise from $5's, bitcoin price will finally settle to its real market price of around $20 - $50.

I will probably sell bitcoins only when the price finally stablizes around those levels, and only when it is obvious that the manipulator is not in the market. I do not trust a bitcoin price that is based on this single manipulator, as always happens when he pulls out the price skyrockets.

Just read my past posts and all is like i have been saying.

Why worry.

when you can take advantage of the drop in price.

You people make it sound if there is only one manipulator. I think there would be a decent amount of veterans still sitting on most of their holdings playing this game.

The world's turning - yet it seems some people haven't realised it yet...

Gent's set your phasers to IxCoin! :D

I kinda agree...the manipulator(s) were not propping the market up they were drawing sheep down.  Plus all the stupid .00/.05/.10 repeated bids were simply there to give an illusion that the market price was at a constantly lower price.   The majority of sellers value their BTC at a much higher value and would rather not sell then to be led down for the slaughter.

Good luck to all who believe the OP...it'll be fine.

Nah stick with Bitcoin..please...it keeps the value of our currency up lol

Edward, you seem to have invested a lot of time in investigating this "market manipulator." Perhaps you got a little something for him?

*wink*

This is no joke anymore, Bitcoin price is reaching new lows every day. The inevitable drop is still on. How much longer can the market get hit without the manipulator putting in his floor and getting back in? The higher psychological bitcoin price level is getting pounded. Nobody will buy bitcions for more than $10 dollars when it always just drops right back down.

Everything I said seems to be happening. Only if you are delusional will you think otherwise. Does it matter if a bunch of miners think their bitcoins are worth $50??? I do not own 1 bitcoin, never have. Do I really care if a miner thinks his bitcoins are worth $50 dollars each? Do any other buyers out there think it matters if they are worth $50 dollars each. NO! If no buyers think they are worth it, well they are not worth $50 dollars. I think all my baseball cards are worth $50,000,000 each, so do many other people, does that mean there is a buyer who would pay that?

THIS IS HUGE. You were warned to sell at $11.

REMEMBER, every time the bitcoin hit a new low, it always rebounded higher, to shortly after always hit an even NEWER LOW!!!

If this same pattern holds true, expect bitcoins to fall below $5.00. THIS IS HUGE!!!!!!!!!!!! You people really have no idea the true value of bitcoins because the price has been manipulated so damn much!

Yes there are many buyers holding out, there will always be buyers holding out!!!!!! just like in stocks when the price drops close to 0. Crap, I own 3DFX stock still LOL, I thought it was worth much more, so did many other holders of 3dFX stock. Does it matter that I think or thought it was worth more, or the majority of 3DFX stockholders who held onto their investment. IT DOES NOT MATTER. The market price seems to be set by the 5%-15% of market holders, not the majority!!!!!!!!!

SELL YOUR BITCOINS While the price is still high. If this manipulator does not come back in anytime soon you will lose lots of money! Keep checking the bid side of bitcoins! use common sense. Do not listen to the people here who hold bitcoins thinking they will get to $50. Cut your losses right now before it is to late.

Hey Edward, everything EVERYONE has said keeps happening.

BTC goes up, BTC goes down. Market gets manipulated. Merchants get new solutions. Market rises, market falls. You aren't really making any predictions that shine because of their uniqueness or usefulness.

You're just so much more noise.

I have to admit I have mixed feelings about this,   yea it's dropping in price.. but deposits at flexcoin hit the roof. 


generally there's an inverse relationship ...  (not always but it appears to be that way more than 50% of the time)... 

Heh, Founder, for every BTC sold, one BTC is bought! Thousands of bitcoins have been dumped into the market in the last few hours. Where did you think they'd be going?

If anything, take it as a strong vote of confidence that those buying think Flexcoin is worthy of their trust.

well the timing of his post was spot on.

sure it does not mention head and shoulders or my ass wave theory... but when all those bids went poof..
he make a prediction. and that is what this section of the forum is for.

Assuming that the person buying isn't just the same person selling them (you just need 2 mt.gox accounts)

Yes, but it's just a matter of scale and perspective. Take it from just a few days before, or a few days after, and you can make the results fit pretty much any prediction. Edward's theory of a "hidden manipulator" is just hot air, and I suspect he knows it. There are several manipulators of the BTC market out there, and they're equally out in the open, we can see them when 7,000 BTC all get sold at the same time... or when 10,000 BTC all get bought at the same time. Nothing hidden at all.

The real mystery is why someone so clearly convinced of Bitcoin's ultimate doom is spending his (or her) time on these forums, posting relentlessly, though conveniently disappearing when the value of BTC rises against the dollar.

I don't believe in the ultimate truth of Hinduism, but I have never, ever, even remotely considered joining a Hindu forum  ;)

You are quite right. But even if that was the case, his or her whole idea in doing that would be to create downwards momentum, so there would be others (miners, hoarders, people who need to pay rent), who'll go into "panic sell" mode.

At which point he can start buying, and when the time is right do the same thing in the opposite direction and then sell and drag down the price and then buy and then....

True, but he (or she) cannot really guarantee that when he dumps thousands of BTC, he'll be able to buy them all back. Some will get snagged by others. Also, he (or she) could get trumped on by someone with more USD at the ready in their account. If you jump in quickly enough, or just a fraction of a cent sooner, you can take all the BTC that the original manipulator wanted for himself (or herself).

It's a bit of a gamble, especially as more traders with money start coming in.

This volatility is very bad for bitcoin in the long run.  If it can rise and fall 20% within a couple of days, why would anyone use it as a currency?  It would be a silly move.  The only real purpose bitcoins seem to serve right now is a vehicle for highly speculative investing.  There's nothing wrong with that of course, and participants seem to be enjoying the action, but anyone looking on would think this whole thing is far too unstable.

It's a gamble, but someone with the right tools could analyses the orderbook, look for the moment where there is a distribution that allows them to buy back all their own bitcoins plus a few others and drag the price down to the level they want. Anyone with 10,000 btc and $100,000 could do whatever they wanted.  A 6000 btc buy can drag the price down 5%.
My advice would be to assume manipulation and let the manipulator be your guide - ie buy low and sell high (most obvious statement of the year I know - but the market is distorted by big players).

Watching MtGox Live atm.  I haven't seen the bids and asks so unbalanced for a long time.  Nice 'wall' at $8.50.  Of course, if the long blue ask tongue takes even a lick of that 'wall' it will come crumbling down within minutes.

BTW, the same people are claiming bitcoin is being manipulated by one or maybe a few large bots.  Has anyone delivered any evidence of this, or is it simply inferred from looking at the trading action and thinking 'this must be rigged'?

Agreed, at current BTC/USD prices, a trivially small amount of money would allow any trader to make thousands during a five minute break in his lunch hour  ;D

Things will start to change once the price of each BTC rises significantly... that should weed out the small time manipulators.

What we need is a few more big players - make manipulation more competitive.

What is this based on?

Not as a skeptical question, but since you as a big pool op. might have better understanding of the market, statistics etc.
(I find $30 perfectly logical in the long term, just would like to know the reasoning)

Heh, the REAL market value is upwards of $10,000 per BTC... it all depends what decade we're talking about  ;D

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?m=mtgoxUSD&t=S&height=320&width=750&c=1&s=2011-06-26&e=2011-08-26
Bitcoin/USD, Mt. Gox, last 60 days. The long, slow slide continues.

It's a long, slow slide as the bubble deflates. The market is so thin that when someone does a big sell, there's a big drop. Then there's a recovery, but it's always lower than the previous high.

Look at the last full year:
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?m=mtgoxUSD&t=S&height=320&width=750&c=1&s=2010-08-26&e=2011-08-26
Bitcoin - a classic speculative bubble.

I've been saying this consistently for months. Time is proving me right.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=1014&m=mtgoxUSD&k=&r=180&i=Daily&c=0&s=&e=&Prev=&Next=&v=1&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0&t=&b=&a1=TMA&m1=200&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&SubmitButton=Draw&
Long slow slide? Of course! That's what these charts say!

The thing with bubbles is:
They either recover to a median value or completely die out. I can't possible imagine the latter at this point. So the question we have to ask us: where will the median be?

Also, especially within bitcoin there is a fractal pattern of bubbles, this is just the biggest yet and there are even larger ones coming up. and each circle takes proportionally longer. The gartner hype cycle and black swan theory both agree on this. So we are absolutely fine. And if you don't have to cash out soon it's even completely fine individually.

Why not? Pyramid schemes normally die out. The only way Bitcoin can have a long life is if it develops substantial use as a medium of exchange. That's not happening. If the Bitcoin world is dominated by speculation, it's doomed.

What would a "new" low be?  Considering that the USD price of BTC started at $0, I don't think you can really get much lower than that. (:

Unless you want to PAY me to take your Bitcoins, which I'll be happy to do if there ever comes the day...

I don't think bitcoin can be described as a pyramid scheme.  It's more like a dotcom stock in 1999.  There's a lot of hype, a big push towards the 'new paradigm' by supporters and those with vested interests, and very little real economic activity to support it all.  The dotcom bubble didn't burst because it was a pyramid scheme.  It burst because people opened their eyes and looked at why they should keep investing in it.  They saw nothing, and left in a mad rush.

Bitcoin isn't like a stock because it doesn't generate revenue. The speculation end is a zero-sum game. 

I agree about the "lot of hype, new paradigm talk, very little economic activity" part. 

A large majority of dotcom stocks didn't generate any revenue either :-)  They were rather brilliant at burning cash however.

It has potential to "generate revenue" by avoiding taxes and Fees.

Though there is 7200 new each day! If you would stop the amount of new bitcoins generated now it would not go lower.
But right now Investors need to put in $7200 x8 each day to keep the longterm value above $8. Even if miners would only sell half of that.

$7200 x4 is still plenty of money to get into the economy every day.

As mentioned before, one big issue with bitcoin is related to one of its greatest benefits: The decentralization. This fosters individuals randomly developing (often great businesses around bitcoin). But noone coordinates PR, marketing , advertising, which means a lot of waste and contradictory messages.

Companies -at least many of them- do consistent brand building, which bitcoins are lacking massively.

If this does not start quickly, the "outside world" will be successful keeping bitcoins down. I.e. bitcoins is acompetition to government currencies, to big credit cards companies, etc.

Coordinated efforts are needed from all of us bitcoiners, rather than complaining and debating about minor issues in this forum foreever.

+1

This forum is called Speculation.  I agree endless posts speculating about bitcoin's value would be out of place in a software development forum, or product ideas forum.

Is bitcoin a competition to government currencies or Visa/Mastercard/etc?  Maybe one day, in the distant future, if everything goes right.  The outside world doesn't have to be successful in keeping bitcoins down.  It sounds like a conspiracy theory.  Bitcoin needs to prove its worth by doing something useful.

The 7200 x $8 is based on a false assumption. Namely that those 7200 BTC are going to be sold on for US dollars the same day and all the $ denominated exchanges will have price parity.

The fact is that doesn't happen. BTC are converted into several currencies and ppl. don't sell all their BTC everyday. There are plenty of people in it for the long term. There are also people the buy things with their BTC.

7200 x whatever is bogus.

+1

The OP mentioned somethign I found rather interesting.How did he know of a 'manipulator' that affected BTC value? How did they make contact? Is the OP a friend of the 'manipulator'? I think that (even though I feel odd about this idea) we should maybe try to find the next big thing that can affect BTC value for the better as well as maybe bringing him/her back if possible.I want to get the best price for my BTC and just move onto other business ventures.

Will prices bounce backup for BTC or is it in freefall for good now? Has anyone got the charts for the value?

Conspiracy theory much?

He "knows" because it's been a commonly talked about subject.  The market manipulation has been fairly obvious.  Since the Bitcoin market is so small (relatively) in comparison to major markets, it doesn't take much to buy in and swing the market around.

I want to change my screen name to "The Manipulator".  ::)

I've done well in the stock/bond markets, angel investing, art, real estate, and bitcoins. The one thing I have learned is to not listen to others. If you feel an investment is a good idea, do it. Those who say the sky is falling or too expect 50% growth per year are just guessing.
On the other hand if you feel uneasy, get out. I pulled out just before the 90's tech bubble burst. I did this against the advise of "experts". Even a cursory review of the statistical efficacy of experts will reveal that they know nothing.
Most investors base their investments on emotion. You want to beat them? Base your decisions on math.

I agree with you on this.I wish to recoup £74 worth of BTC I invested in thinking I'd make a nice profit,instead the value dropped loads and £74 becomes much less than that (since the crash from ~$11 per btc to what it is now.) I also have a small supply of other bit coins so selling 2 would easily recoup my losses when it bounces right back (and $$$).

In the next 2 weeks guys,do you think the BTC value would recover? I certainly hope so soon.

Whenever the market moves in a way that displeases bitcoin traders, they shout about The Manipulator.  He's everywhere, and controls every market move.  Clever fellow.


It seems many have.  Bitcoins are 75% off their highs.  At the time of the bubble there was a 'to the moon, and beyond!' price crowd that could see no problems in the exponential price growth curve.  I got out, and sold most of my coins in the 20s and high teens.


Unfortunately those basing their decisions purely on emotion always have far more money than you do :-)

I haven't read much of what OP has wrote and I haven't read this entire thread yet, but I know what he is talking about.

Lately I had just assumed it was actually MTGOX doing it,
needing a way to grab bitomat without any loss to themselves.

Whoever it is if it isn't MTGox, they definitely know who it is.

If MtGox was manipulating the price as suggested, wouldn't they manipulate it to go higher?  They make a cut from every trade, and it seems obvious they would let the public bots play at a higher price as that delivers higher income.

If there truly is one manipulator pulling and pushing the market then it's even more alarming than I would have imagined.  The market would essentially be paper thin with no support against a complete collapse due to a lack of natural price support.

If there are "manipulators pulling out", I would be willing to bet that there are a lot of MtGox USD sitting on MtGox that are not actively sitting on the exchange in the form of bids.  Those bids may have disappeared in a flash, but they almost certainly didn't all get withdrawn through Dwolla!  The daily and monthly withdrawal limit practically guarantees that.

And it makes sense.  Why should anyone looking for a sweet deal on BTC leave bids up, when removing the bids will result in a more favorable buy price?  If I were looking to make a big buy right now, I would be leaving my money completely off the bid chart, waiting for the price to fall lower and lower before I executed.

In fact, I am The Manipulator. Whenever I buy, price drops and vice versa. I'm sure there are tons of other Manipulators who move the market like this.

Hmmm ???
http://i55.tinypic.com/1zj8e9.jpg

What was so hmmm-able about that?

Why build a wall at days high? Hmmm.

The wall was built where it was built.
The high hit it and nibbled some off it.

*shrug* That's how it looks to me.

Missed the nibbling I guess *shrug

It's happening again!

The general trend is still up through based on T.A. Most analysts predicted this fall and simply suggested buy more if possible when it is lower before it goes back up. I find it annoying as I'd rather it just climb and not have The Manipulator playing with us with 17000BTC walls, but I'll try to deal with it and make some money.

lol relax... this time we aren't in the middle of a massive downtrend.  We actually have buying pressure now.

It does indeed look like the bid side of mt. gox has gotten lower.

However, with the price pretty low now huge free fall's probably won't happen as easily.

My theory: Today, when the price neared $5, he pumped it up again so he could sell off the coins he bought as a prelude to sending it to the $4s.

I do appreciate his efforts to keep the price from stagnating.  Stagnation is horrible!

Guys, minsc is bearish so we have a RALLY!!!

+1

We're just having a break before the next push up ;D

Well today, he's finally pulled out his huge buywall so hopefully it will freefall this Thursday.  I bet those people who bought at 5.60 and those bots that insulted him from some of the sell orders feel silly now.

The Manipulator has cancelled his 3000BC buywall so my money is a drop to $2.  I'm going all in with a large order of all my money for $100 worth of coins there.

Where was that buy 3000btc wall you are talking about? People have been selling into various walls for the last two hour. And there are plenty remaining.

I can't quite tell whether you're being ironic about your large order, or whether you think $100 is actually a large amount of money.  For a teenager it can be, for anyone else it's a drop in the ocean.

Hopefully his large $100 bid wall keeps the price from going lower.

Man, I was wondering who put that massive bid wall up.  This is going to have us stuck at an artificially high BTC price for days! >:(

I have found that whenever I buy on a bull market, the price drops.  The only way to buy coins that aren't overpriced is the very tip of a bear market.  I was hoping Thursday it would drop but it's Saturday and still not stagnating.  If it doesn't drop soon, I'm just taking my money out (to pay my rent) and then not putting any in until October 7th as the first week of the past few months have always been massive price drops that permanently lower bitcoin prices by several dollars.

Oh and this winter when mining makes electricity basically free, price may reach I don't know $1 temporarily.

Don't assume weekly or monthly calendar patterns persist. Very often you find 2-3 times fulfilling your prophecy and then they do not work any more.
I still remember the talks about the dead-sure weekend drop and then it did not happen at all any more.

Yes exactly. Recently it could be said that weekends are the rally days, but that might not last either.

I find that bitcoin is quite stable at the moment, maybe it is not the price that we want but stable nonetheless, which is good for merchants and their customers who are adopting bitcoins.

5 * 0.15 = 0.75
The most wild of the swings were 5.13 and 4.78.  5.13-4.78 = 0.35

However, you cannot count the wild swings because they last moments and half the time Gox doesn't fill out people's orders and so you can only count on what the price been most of the time, which has been from 4.86 through 4.96.  That's about 1% movement a day

If this is too technical, look at http://mtgoxlive.com/orders?volumeon
Does it look like a tornado going all the way up?
In the last 96 hours it has been basically around 4.90 and not moving except one attempt at a rally that the manipulator crushed so he could buy cheap coins.  (4.90ish is a good low price to buy them the way things are going).

Basically the price has stagnated.  This is bad for speculators because if it swung from 5.00 to 6.00 every day and back and forth it would be far more stable than jumping somewhere and stagnating.  You could be all "Oh it will be back to X amount in a day so no worries, I can price my products based on this."

Instead it jumps, then it stagnates for days, then it jumps and stagnates.

Yes when it crashes big, people are panic selling like this month.