Bitcoin Forum

Does this really like like a healthy, historically normal correction to you?

https://i.imgur.com/b3kaH.png

I don't see why everyone has their panties in a wad.

Because there is a lot at stake.

Will the log chartists please stand up? Show me evidence this is a normal correction and not an exceptionally deep and long one!

This:

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_0jshcRmzyKA/Sjtm8Mw7shI/AAAAAAAAXQg/6qOS8UaGhOM/s400/ScreenHunter_7258.jpg

Hey Elwar, you did not start your chart at 0.000001. Why is that?
Are you trying to show some type of bias here that others who post a chart starting at .000001 do not
seem to have? ;-)

*standing*

Math major here, vouching for log chart.

The random chart I found on the Internet did not start at .000001

I just wanted to feel included in the chart posting.

:P

Log chartist reporting.

What's up?  8)

srsly what's your problem, just thing of it this way: Blow up the chart to 2030 or so and draw a tanh() funtion over it.
It only behaves linearly (or exponential on a linear chart) because we are looking at a small fraction of it.


here did that for ya:

http://img694.imageshack.us/img694/984/uselesspredictionchart.png

I scrolled to the end of that huge picture in hope there was a funny ending to it.


There wasn't.   :(

k fixed

Sorry not very creative  :-\

Are you modelling the diffusion of Bitcoin with the logistic differential equation?  Is that why you used tanh?

I'm sorry I have no idea what you are talking about   :P

But you might be on to something here  ;)

Oh.  If you're interested: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diffusion_of_innovations (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diffusion_of_innovations).  Notice the graph at the top of the page, and the "logistic function" link underneath.

thanks, I've already looked it up, pretty interesting.

But we have a problem: Scaling the function to the actual data would be quite a demanding task, and would require skillfull programming instead of naive curve drawing by hand  ;D

are you guys just drawing lines with paint, or are you actually fitting to some curve or something? nothing's properly labeled so I can't tell, but it seems like you're just making this shit up

Welcome to Bitcoin.

Please purchase your tokens now.

lol

Plus, I think you'd want to use the linear scaling when fitting the logistic function.  Would be a pretty bad fit, then :)

Mostly just having fun with some math.

I wouldn't place much confidence in the predictive power of this model.  Too many significant hurdles yet to be overcome to say it's just a simple matter of spreading the word.

You don't need to use a log chart. Simply view the standard price chart

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zvztgSzm1g10zm2g25 > set axis to 6-months

Now, you simply apply a Milton-Keynesian correction transform to the market data, like so:

https://i.imgur.com/qqtEf.png

Using this metric it is clear the value of bitcoin has stabilised on the horizontal. BUY BUY BUY

That made my laugh harder than it should.

That caught me off guard to. Seems funnier the more I look at it.

The log chart is distorted as it includes essentially irrelevant data when bitcoins were worth a few cents each.  While it's valid to include the data (it's factual) it's also irrelevant to bitcoin users today.  So what that the price now is still 1000 times higher than it was a year ago?  It doesn't change the fact that bitcoin's value is down almost 75% from its peak. 

Maybe the Japanese can use log graphs of the Nikkei Index starting from the 1970s to make themselves feel better.  They are still in a bull market today!  ::)

Does this one make you happier?
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=947&m=mtgoxUSD&k=&r=120&i=&c=0&s=&e=&Prev=&Next=&v=1&cv=0&ps=0&l=1&p=0&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&SubmitButton=Draw&

I find the hostility towards it very amusing and that all the naysayers come up with comparisons our the fiat money world even more so.  ;D

Since I am the one who has drawn this trend lines you deserve at least some explanation: ;)
These lines will obviously be broken at some point but when is irrelevant since you cant put a real world value on the entire potential supply of USD. Alot of emotional detachment is needed to view this trend with a rational mind.

So to make it easier for you just replace the USD with bytes of computer memory, if you think about it a little you know what I mean  :P

awsome you posted the same pic twice in two different threads.
Welcome to my shitlist  ;D

If it's already mapped to a log scale, and it STILL looks parabolic, then you know it's probably oversold.  Silver did this earlier this year, then corrected.

Now, that doesn't mean bitcoin still won't go down, though, but this hasn't been tulip mania just yet.

Unless you can buy most things with these coins, they are a bad investment.  Tulip mania.

The log chart is distorted as it includes history? C'mon, man. That is just retarded. It's relevant to users today in as much as the current price is relevant.

Do you buy stocks by only looking at today's price? Hey, XXX is trading at $23. That seems like a pretty cool number...

Hey you just proved your charts are wrong because you refuse to take criticism.

You are just retarded

When you look at historical data for a company... that company hasn't changed much in the last few years. Roughly the same number of employees doing the same shit.

The price of bitcoin in its infancy is irrelevant because it had a totally different userbase. It used to be a very small group of people doing it as a nerdy project. Now we have several orders of magnitude more participants, and they have markedly different motivations from the original group (!!!$$$get rich quick$$$!!!). It's a totally different market after the wave of publicity in May-June

Yes, people making linear charts are just dead innacurate.  People need to see bitcoin frenzy this summer as like a gasoline fire.

But you think selecting specifically for an anomalous series is accurate? It's short-sighted and basically just sounds like early-investory-i'm-jelly syndrome, which is spreading on this forum like mouth herpes at a rave.

Honestly, none of the graphs really work if you are in for long term predictions (since you are including 1 year of data, I assume we are talking about mid/long term). An year ago we had like 10 people with great technical knowlege. Right now, we have 1000 people and 90% only wants to profit. Next year, bitcon could be outlawed, completely dead or it could be flourishing.

There are a lot of changes in the userbase and in the environment surrounding bitcons that make it very very difficult to predict long term prices (with or without charts).

Not 'jelly' of someone who wins the lottery. Or someone who gets in on the ground floor of a pyramid scam and makes some cash. In both cases both have made some money against the odds, and can't really claim anything but blind luck. The same goes with bitcoins.

I don't think it's short sighted at all to divide things into pre/post publicity blitz. The 'early investors' came in April/May 2011. Before that I wouldn't describe the people using bitcoin way before that as investors.... maybe 'bitcoin enthusiasts' would be a better term. Do you think the guy who bought a pizza for 20000 bitcoins was an 'early investor'? Hugely different number of people with hugely different motivations = hugely different market, sorry

So I said investor instead of adopter. I'm such an asshole for that slip in semantics.

Yeah, fuck you, asshole!

GTFO.

It's not semantics at all. Investors have very different motivations than adopters

This is what it looks like when a bunch of investors suddenly jump into a market
http://www.minyanville.com/assets/Image/tulipmania.jpg

Does that shape look familiar perchance?

Poor choice of words then. Jesus christ...now you are definitely arguing semantics. Just keep posting that tulip graph over and over. I am sure it has some sort of point.

I think you're mistaken.  We're not looking to make predictions from these graphs (at least I'm not, and neither was niko).  They simply present a story about the past.

I agree with your reasoning.  This one tells the story of the bubble alone:
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=947&m=mtgoxUSD&k=&r=150&i=&c=0&s=&e=&Prev=&Next=&v=1&cv=0&ps=0&l=1&p=0&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&SubmitButton=Draw&

Could be a long ride down if none of the capital accumulated during the media blitz ends up sticking.  I'd bet at least some will, though.

read: Unless everyone else is already using them, they are a bad investment.

lol good catch

+1 to you guys! hilarious pics! zlolz

The log chart tells a story that is completely lost in a linear graph. A jump from .1 to .2 is just as much a surprise as 1 to 2 or 10 to 20. When the DJI gains or loses 100 points it's not news, but if an ounce of silver gained 100 against the dollar it would be in headlines. It's all relative and logarithms capture the relativity. Certainly bitcoin's $32 in June was the peak of a bubble and the log chart shows just how remarkable that was relative to two previous peaks. It explains why the market is in despair right now while reminding the mathematically inclined that the price is well within the historical trend.
http://genaud.net/bitcoin/2011/20110908-2350.png

Looks good. Since I am a casual miner and this was a investment just as a upgrade for my last card. I know many think of it in the short term for the most part. Every week we see many calling "doomsday" for bitcoins. I am sure the big investors know better and will just buy up when the price is low.

Sure they will, we won't be the only one left holding the bag.  Right guys?  Guys?

https://i.imgur.com/Ky3rH.gif