Bitcoin Forum

Not only are we not getting the payment processor catalyst I was hoping for the FBI just announced it will be dumping 25 million dollars in Bitcoin into the market.  Things aren't looking good, I'd exit long positions immediately.

http://www.wallstreetcrypto.com/2014/01/once-more-unto-breach-dear-friends-once.html


EDIT:

Note the use of the work into the market not into exchanges before you post on this thread.

Most people aren't reading the article they're just posting based on the summary so to elaborate on the actual point of the article here is a response I wrote to a comment earlier;

'Its not about what they'll actually do, its about the perception of traders.

Take China for example, the net effect of government legislation was very minimal on longterm markets because BTC traders eventually just found ways to bypass the legislation, but the short term effects were massive.

At a point when Bitcoin was approaching major resistances the news was released and it exacerbated a capitulation that was very likely anyway.  Longterm the markets recovered but the point of the article isn't to address the longterm effects investors may be interested in its to address the short term effects trader would be interested in.  

Now can you honestly say the FBI dumping 25 million dollars in Bitcoin onto the market will have no short term effect?

No fool would make that claim, and for traders this will likely mean a significant short term opportunity over the next 1-2 weeks.  For investors the net effect here will likely be zero.

So take it for what its worth to you.'

Bullshit!  :D

Sources provided, you can trade w/e way you please but I can't imagine any scenario in which a 25 million dollar dump would be a good thing.

And the Award of posting 17th thread with same stuff inside goes to.....

I doubt if they'll dump it on an exchange.  It'll probably end up being auctioned off just like any other seized asset.  Of course the person buying it at auction could dump on an exchange, but I think they'd be a bit more careful about how they dump to try to preserve the value of their coins.

This has been discussed ad infinitum already.

They will sell at auction with no effect on exchange prices. Just like the off exchange sales that go on all the time.

FUD by OP!  ;D

Oh!  :o

I didn't realise at first but the OP is the analyst from Wall Street Crypto.

Considering he made a prediction of a catastrophic crash a couple of weeks back which is really dragging its heels now... Actually no, it must just be a coincidence that he's making new drama threads about things that everyone already knows about!  ;D

This is the body of the thread not of the article.

Also the 'FBI dump' is addressed as a end of cycle catalyst, not as a game changing event.  Where the coins end up isn't as important as the sentiments of traders.

As we every so slowly sink into the accumulation zone as I type this.

They're not going to dump it on an exchange, they're simply auctioning them off-exchange. You not knowing this means you're not doing your research very well, so I can't take this analysis seriously either. We may or may not break down from here, but it has nothing to do with this.

Time for you to "accumulate" your coins then!  :D

OMFG T.Stuart.

Either you wisen up or you are gonna go down a fucking powder!

I bet this will all be timed for the China exit at the end of the month.

Another comment from someone who didn't read the article....


"With the FBI dumping 25 million dollars worth of Bitcoin into the market we actually ended up with the opposite kind of catalyst I was hoping for.  If the government ends up actually trying to dump the coins responsibly, which I doubt they will, sentiments of the traders will still send the markets into a downward spiral.  If the government decides to dump the coins like morons, which would be par for the course, we'll end up with a 25 million dollar sell wall, plus absolutely pessimistic traders."


Someone here isn't doing their research very well that's for sure.

Get Karhu out here MatTheCat: maybe he'll convince me!  :D

Once again, how, where, and when the FBI dumps these coins is secondary to the sentiments of traders.  The FBI is likely to auction the coins off, but if you were a whale with 1-2 million in bitcoin would you bet a fortune on that?

Odds are most people would even bet a few hundred on the government acting responsibly with 25 million dollars.  God knows they haven't in the past!

So the point, as always, is how will the traders view this?

Most traders and just regular people on this forum seem to have understood this already. In fact it has been discussed for weeks now. They will auction them. People from this forum actually made offers to them. I am afraid that in this case you really have not read up on here before making your report.

EDIT: ... Or scenario no. 2: This is simply FUD.

You have made a nice website. Don't get a reputation for biased analysis otherwise it's a waste.

Yeah the writer of that article didn't do his research or is at least not very smart, since he actually believes the FBI will dump like morons on an exchange lol. Sorry but that's just retarded and I can't take anyone seriously who reasons like that. Don't know if the writer of that article is you or not, but good luck if you listen to that crap...

If they understand it then how is auctioning off Bitcoin (likely) way under market price a good thing?  Even if it doesn't end up on the exchanges from the gov. it does from the auction winners, this likely mitigates the effects but doesn't negate them.

Its not about what they'll actually do, its about the perception of traders.

Take China for example, the net effect of government legislation was very minimal on longterm markets because BTC traders eventually just found ways to bypass the legislation, but the short term effects were massive.

At a point when Bitcoin was approaching major resistances the news was released and it exacerbated a capitulation that was very likely anyway.  Longterm the markets recovered but the point of the article isn't to address the longterm effects investors may be interested in its to address the short term effects trader would be interested in. 

Now can you honestly say the FBI dumping 25 million dollars in Bitcoin onto the market will have no short term effect?

No fool would make that claim, and for traders this will likely mean a significant short term opportunity over the next 1-2 weeks.  For investors the net effect here will likely be zero.

So take it for what its worth to you.

My analysis is biased toward the interests of traders, perhaps this is the point being widely missed.  If you need proof that my analytic techniques have been effective in the passed just look at my previous speculation articles.

Once again the target audience for this article, the site, and this thread is not investors it is traders.

Nevermind Karhu, go and have a look at the charts if you want convincing.

......and if you are still not convinced go and try trading on Bitstamp and discover the botfest doing its utmost to hold the price and suck capital in. Going by the charts, it still looks as though there are fast trading opportunities to be had, but if you take to the arena against the bots, you will soon realise that this is merely an illusion. I got in an and out with a $20 profit after exchange fees were subtracted, and that was from a $15K investment. Easy enough to buy when the Bid wall is hit but only the bots get to sell at the Ask walls.

Bitcoin is going well sub $700 before this weekend is out.

Was the troll squad accusing you of perma-bear bias or something?

Dismissive perma-bulls have gotten awfully quiet...

Aaaaannd.... Hello!  ;)

https://i.imgur.com/XjYmlyy.png (http://imgur.com/XjYmlyy)

KARHU has spoken but there is still time, do you give alms, or shall you be slaughtered in praise of KARHU!

I think it is very likely that some heavy hitters with institutional money are going to line up to buy that silk road coins and they will be purchased off exchange.  I remember reading about Warren Buffet vacationing in Yellowstone Park when Longterm Capital Management Group went belly up.  They way you become a billionaire is by never ever ever paying retail.  

I'm fairly certain there are several whales looking for an entry point. Put it this way: if you had billions of dollars lying around depreciating, what would you do with them?

In a nutshell alpha492, going by your TA, is this still a good time to short?

I anticipated a bounce at the $765 level, which bitcoin hit as I transferred my $790 coins over to Bitfinex in order to turn into USD for shorting (I managed to get out at just a small discount from what I paid for my BTC over at Bitstamp).

Seems like there is more of a Bitcoin fart than a bounce underway here and I consider that there will be much more downside to come before this weekend is out.

However, now I am standing on verge of sinking a few grand into shorting Bitcoin, the fact that we have had around $200 of downside in the past week is standing out in my mind.

The bitcoins will be auctioned not in the open market http://www.pfhub.com/silk-road-bitcoins-will-be-sold-though-us-marshal-auction-not-on-open-exchange-304/

At a considerable discount from their mark to market value.....

......and what will the proud new owners of these coins want to then do with a certain proportion of them?

MatTheCat you are running around willy nilly to anyone you deem an "analyst" for advice. I give you a cast-iron guarantee you will not get anywhere doing this.

Not saying you have to go long, not saying you have to go short, but whatever you do think for yourself man!

My god!  This is truly frightening bad news.  Please post it here (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=412280.60) so everyone can see all the bad confirmed bad news from good sources in one place.  Also, make sure to SHOTR, if you haven't already.

I have had a shortist mentality on Bitcoin since $900's, and have been turning a few pennies trying to trade bounces, which is becoming increasingly nippy as it becomes more and moe dominated by bots.

Now, I think we are going lower, much lower, but it is very possible/likely that we will see a bounce right around the level that Bitcoin just hit......

......have never shorted anything before so perhaps this is a dicey time to start, regardless of my certainty of where Bitcoin is going.

They are likely to securitze them. Basically repackage them and sell them to institutional investors.  You think the Winklevi and Bitcoin Investment Trust are going to be the only players in that space?

Whatever the case is. This is NOT bullish news. All that is up for debate is to what extent it will have a bearish impact.

Its hard to say atm,

We've got some pretty strong support at 791 that volume is accumulating at, but we slip under it will be a free-for-all.  This was a take-profit area for me but I may reenter if we slip far enough under supports.

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I disagree. If the FBI had seized 25m in heroin, they would had destroyed it. They are selling. It's hard to make a case that selling something is bad if you are selling it yourself. This legitimizes Bitcoin.

Really, most of our twitter followers and readers seem to be happy?

Thank god someone understands the message here.  Thank you for stopping by the thread MatTheCat, a lot of people have been flaming the article without even reading it.

It not about what the FBI does with it (except in the worst case scenarios) its about the sentiment of traders.  Unfortunately, today has resulted in some very sad/mad bulls that seem to be polluting the thread.

Not sad or mad. Just sold a little at $815 yesterday and wondering when to buy it back. Bought back 20% at $785. I am confused about what is meant by "bull". Why would a permabear even be trading? You'd need to be able to borrow BTC somehow and every way I know of is problematic.

I'm not a perma-bear or perma-bull, this was just unbiased analysis of what I thought was going to happen next.

Perma-bulls just get angry anytime you even suggest something may cause capitulation in the markets, and a lot of them seem to be hanging around this thread.

HODL?  ;)

Have they ever done this with any asset in the past?

The proud new owners? How the hell would I know? I don't know who they're going to be yet. THEY don't know who they're going to be yet. But yes, pretty much any commodity or asset can be securitized and usually are. if you think the Wall Streeters aren't looking at our market going up 1000%/ year and wondering how to cash in on it, you don't know any wall streeters.

Article published 12/2/13



https://i.imgur.com/jpPZCWL.png (http://imgur.com/jpPZCWL)

https://i.imgur.com/n4CNzte.png (http://imgur.com/n4CNzte)

No, that's too easy I'm afraid.

The article was published on Wednesday, 8 January 2014.

http://www.wallstreetcrypto.com/2014/01/was-it-zynga-january-in-depth.html

I quote:

"... In relation to the point labeled 'Crash Zone', without a major catalyst with near certainty I can say Bitcoin will experience a major crash again, with lows just above the point labeled 'Minor Reversal Zone'"

Click on the chart in the article to see where alpha492 situates his "Minor Reversal Zone". Suffice to say it's sub-$500.

In the OP of this thread:

"Not only are we not getting the payment processor catalyst I was hoping for the FBI just announced it will be dumping 25 million dollars in Bitcoin into the market."

alpha492, you really are digging your own grave here. Short of editing the first post of this thread, the text of your article and the indications on the accompanying chart, what can you do now?

No, that's too easy I'm afraid.

The article was published on Wednesday, 8 January 2014.

http://www.wallstreetcrypto.com/2014/01/was-it-zynga-january-in-depth.html

I quote:

"... In relation to the point labeled 'Crash Zone', without a major catalyst with near certainty I can say Bitcoin will experience a major crash again, with lows just above the point labeled 'Minor Reversal Zone'"

Click on the chart in the article to see where alpha492 situates his "Minor Reversal Zone". Suffice to say it's sub-$500.

In the OP of this thread:

"Not only are we not getting the payment processor catalyst I was hoping for the FBI just announced it will be dumping 25 million dollars in Bitcoin into the market."

alpha492, you really are digging your own grave here. Short of editing the first post of this thread, the text of your article and the indications on the accompanying chart, what can you do now?


[/quote]

Sorry I assumed you were talking about December because I'm not sure I ever claimed sub-500 prices.

https://i.imgur.com/uUYDwGe.png (http://imgur.com/uUYDwGe)


Unlikely to touch this month

Your article: "... with near certainty I can say Bitcoin will experience a major crash again, with lows just above the point labeled 'Minor Reversal Zone'"

Listen of course everyone is entitled to their opinion, prediction etc. But we get plenty of biased TA on here and when it is accompanied by threads about the FBI dumping their stash etc. it becomes a joke. I think your site is nice and you are using professional methods etc., but IMO generally speaking TA analysts should make an extra effort to be impartial on this forum otherwise they can expect to be called out.

I can see how bias has become an assumed factor on this forum when mentioning the FBI dump at all (dump onto market not exchange).  I appreciate your thoughts on the site and I'd like to note that the month isn't even halfway over.

If you read my article: http://www.wallstreetcrypto.com/2014/01/was-it-zynga-january-in-depth.html

Maybe you can understand the perspective of my analysis.  I hate hindsight use of catalyst, and I hate ambiguous fortune telling.

I come from the perspective that if a prediction is not to some degree specific, then it is in now way useful and tantamount to spam.  So I try very hard in my prediction articles to give analysis that is specific even if it risks being wrong.

The "safe" way to write about markets is to wait till after a crash/rally then credit so-and-so catalyst, or to offer ambiguous analysis without any actual usable information to traders.

As you might imagine the reputation of someone who does the type of work I do is everything, the 'safe' way is the easy way out and I believe readers in the long run value these articles even in instances where they turn out not to be entirely correct.  Maybe they are correct and a few readers make money, maybe they aren't and readers use my ideas as a forethought before taking on more lucrative positions of their own.

Either way the idea here is to be 'valuable', if you disagree with my position I don't at all resent that, in fact I anticipated this month would be full of different opinion/perspectives and many of them may be more well founded then my own.

But this analysis is not rooted in bias, this is my honest evaluation of market sentiments and trends and you are more then entitled to disagree with me, and I appreciate anything valuable you can add to the thread or comment on the site.

Thank you very much for your reply. I appreciate your sincerity.

You're right about the necessity for prediction. If you can't make a forecast then what's the point?

Speaking with hindsight is facile. Too much also leads to thinking that it's dead easy to predict the market. That's why so many newbs dabbling in day trading lose money. Peaks and troughs are so easy to spot when they've happened.

Good luck with the site and keep it up. Things are moving fast and you should pick up a growing crowd in no time.

I'm removing the more petty contributions of mine to this discussion :P

Thanks for stopping by!

Even I was feeling iffy about this call after that long sideways movement, but it looks like we've finally sunk!

https://i.imgur.com/Qzyxmwv.png (http://imgur.com/Qzyxmwv)

Made some good calls there. I remember reading this thread now when it was posted. Can you clarify a bit what your organization is? You posted a (partially) EW based analysis in another thread, but that was written by another guy, right?

Other than that:


You get a big fat +1 from me for that. I wish more unnecessarily cryptic TA adherents in here would stick to that. Not every post needs to contain an exact price target, but if you post vague TA without specifying time frame, price range, or even general direction, you might as well not post at all.

Thanks, I'm glad you appreciate the work we do.

We're basically applying a model similar to the Wall Street Journal to cryptocurrency markets.  We have 2 main analysts, Ruien and myself, and 2 others who's forte is rooted more in the politics/technological aspect of cryptocurrency.  Our objective is to educate on all things cryptocurrency and trading related, and provide analysis.

+1 from me for this as well. It shows in your posts and what you have said above spells out my thoughts exactly. I find it such a waste of time and effort to sift through all those hyped bandwagon threads. Coming across something as genuine as yours every once in a while makes it worth it though :)

I think you're off to a good start. Thanks for that and do keep it up!

One more bump before we send this to the archives.

Kudos. :)

So when those coins sell for more than exchange value will the exchange prices go down?