Bitcoin Forum

Bitcoin is going down HARD!

People are really crazy! Paying over $1,000 for a DIGITAL CODE!
Don't let them fool you! Bitcoin will crash back to $25, where it belongs!

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Bitcoin is a bubble - Nobel Laureate in Economics

http://img.rt.com/files/news/21/f7/70/00/robert-shiller.si.jpg

Robert Shiller, 2013 Nobel Prize winner in Economics, and an expert in the nature of market excesses, has come down on bitcoin and said that the tremendous jump of the virtual currency was a 100 percent bonified “bubble”.

"It is a bubble, there is no question about it.... It's just an amazing example of a bubble," the Business Insider quotes Shiller, talking to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

“I’m amazed by how people are so excited about it and I tell my students ‘no, it's not such a great idea’," the economist said.

Last year bitcoin grew tremendously in popularity: even universities in the UK and Cyprus began to accept the currency as a means of paying for tuition.

Most recently, two Las Vegas casinos started to accept bitcoin for goods and services.

Over 2013 bitcoin skyrocketed 6,200 percent, and is now being traded at about $950 per unit, according to data from Mt Gox, the world’s second largest bitcoin exchange.

The jump, though, is logical, as it simply follows human nature which is always interested in high-volatile markets, Shiller said. He agreed the online currency was an “inspiration” because of fast-developing computer science, adding the caveat that he didn’t quite see it that way. The Nobel Laureate pronounced that bitcoin was a return to the dark ages because at present there is very little clarity surrounding the crypto currency.

Robert Shiller, Yale Professor of Economics, and two other professors from the University of Chicago - Eugene Fama and Lars Peter Hansen - won the Nobel Prize in 2013 for their research into market prices and asset bubbles.

Source: http://rt.com/business/bitcoin-shiller-bubble-davos-127/

Bitcoin is currently in the ''return to normal/euphoria's last gasp'' phase.

http://www.portfolioprobe.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/bubble-phases-1024x686.jpg
http://www.oftwominds.com/photos09/anatomy-bubble.png

There is a spate of negative Bitcoin stories appearing RT all of a sudden.

Up until recently, RT had a big hard on for Bitcoin.

Guess Putin has changed his mind now that Bitcoin has started infiltrating Russia's financial system.

Wonder how RT's resident circus freak, Max Keiser is going to spin his bullshit on Bitcoin now.

Protip: Wait until the dip in to capitulation before you start the bear call. Look up Nagle's post history if you want some lessons.

You always had the opportunity to buy much cheaper coins after each bubble. This time will be no different.

Same goes with any bubble in financial history, but popped one day, they all have.

yes, i think those around here who cling to this (the longterm log trendline) are setting themselves up for a world of hurt eventually if they haven't been taking profit off the table on the way up.

what a slimy looking creep.

but this is great,

-the exchanges are ready
-the mainstream are behind
-the sentiment is bearish

full steam ahead!!

Crap I think its time to diversify and hedge into tulips.

Thank you so much for this second wonderful post.  Your other post here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=433530.msg4758213#msg4758213

convinced me to sell all of my BTC.  This new post has convinced me to go short BTC big time.  I have taken out a huge BTC loan at a very high BTC interest rate and then sold them all.

I sure hope you are right about all this.  You are sure about this, right?  This is a very sure thing, right?

Keep up the good work.  You are obviously an expert on all things Bitcoin so I know I can trust you with all of my life savings.

Thanks again!

I think that this Nobel prize should be stripped away from that old fuck for making so ignorant statements.

I agree, everyone who isn´t 100% pro Bitcoin is an idiot and should be killed!

http://www.castlemonster.com/images/burn04.gif

Beargasmic!

I have no opinions about the future success of bitcoin. That said, I would like for anyone who believes it is a bubble to tell me how any store of value without intrinsic value could not be a bubble.

Is he willing to call gold a bubble? I mean that seriously, and he might think it is also a bubble.

I am only 99% pro Bitcoin.  Do I have to die?

I´m sorry to say but we don´t want persons like you in our community.
If we keep you, we gain nothing, but if we kill you, we lose nothing.

I disagree.

We need bears because their suffering gives so much joy :D especially these smartass professors to be proven wrong so hard in the future. I can almost hear them mumbling "this is preposterous" when trying to fit bitcoin into their financial box of understanding.

Hew, projecting much?

@BurtW: You would need tremendous amounts of leverage for the remaining 1% to offset your losses on the 99%.

Very much not recommended.

There is no nobel price for economics.. there is only a price sponsored by a huge bank in sweden named after nobel

orly?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nobel_Memorial_Prize_in_Economic_Sciences

Did you click that link or just paste it? :)

Bwahahahahahahaha.

"Nobel Prize Winner"

stopped reading there

Seriously. These ancient "acknowledgements" are exactly that...Ancient. Here's a protip to the old f**ks department: NO ONE CARES ABOUT YOUR S**T MEDALS ANYMORE.

Wow.  Pot meet Kettle.  Only an economist could think the alternative has more clarity than bitcoin.  Maybe it's because I have a CS degree and spent 5 minutes reading the Bitcoin whitepaper, and he only know economics.  In fact, he spent about a decade getting that all "clear". ::)

Both systems are machines.  Bitcoin just replaces the soft squishy parts with math.  This adds clarity, IMO, since the squishy parts are known for their fickleness.

I did both, either way you are right that there isn't called something like a "Nobel price for economic sciences" but it isn't "only a price sponsored by a big bank in Sweden" either.

Since when does that make you qualified to comment on economic issues? And no just because it's easier for you to think about the financial industry as a machine doesn't make it right.
If you are a scientist you'd know that making statements about other fields outside your profession is not only frowned upon but also a very stupid thing to do.

Agreed, bit of drama added on my part.

pure economics analysis guys have tendency to analyse bitcoin as financial instrument only therefore anything can be a bubble, they cant see bitcoin as a protocol but just in case they could see it... would be not surprise to me they also could argue that internet is a bubble as well ... 

But, the internet was the prime example of bubble back in 2000, known as the .com-bubble (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dot-com_bubble). Even know, 10 years later Microsoft, is worth barely more than half of what it was worth back then. Sure, some stocks are worth quite a lot more than after the bubble bursting, but a lot of companies went bust.
So, who knows, in ten years time ... maybe BTC at $500, DOGE market cap at $2B, 90% of the alts gone forever. As the saying goes, those who dont remember history are doomed to repeat it. And there are a lot of similiarities. People investing money in all kinds of coins without even knowing what they are even supposed to be for, unwaivering faith in future possibilities and completely ignoring economical fundamental data.

+1

The Internet clearly wasn't a bubble.

Internet Companies circa 2000 clearly were.

So you need to decide, does Bitcoin have the radical disruption factor and potential permanence of the Internet, or the flash-in-the-pan "nothing really new here" of a Pets.com.

I'd say it's closer to the former than the latter.

yep, but only if you see internet as a bunch of company's ...but if you see internet as a way to connect thousand of networks, billions hosts across the globe ..in my point of view is another thing ... but the bubble analogy can be applied to many things even our universe since the big bang is a bubble .. and by the way can start contract instead expand tomorrow ... who knows ?

If mainstream media (including RT) wasn't hating on bitcoin I would be suspicious.

And for me the beauty of the bitcoin was to solve in elegant way the "consensus problem" in a distributed system ... that was a stroke of genius

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/98/Blockchain.svg/200px-Blockchain.svg.png

+1

IF Obama suggested everyone to start investing into bitcoin I'd be definitely reaching for my tinfoil hat.

1. You are correct, there has never been a "nobel price" for economics, only a price "in memory of Alfred Nobel". The reason is that Nobel himself didn't think the field of economics was WORTHY of any price. Seeing the current state of economic theory it's hard not to agree with him.

2. If it WAS a Nobel price it still wouldn't mean anything. It just someone somewhere decided to give you some money. See some of the recent "peace price" awards for examples (Obama and the EU!? Really?). People put way too much emphasis on being "accepted" by authority.

3. Getting the price is no proof you're not a blithering idiot, see Paul Krugman.

4. Even if Shiller's price was legitimate, it doesn't mean he'll be correct about everything he'll ever says. Smart people are frequently wrong, as proven by the fact that smart people frequently DISAGREE about almost everything. They can't all be right.

And what happens to be if the next "stroke of genius" happens to be Proof-of-useful-work?
The internet is well and alive, Usenet fairly deserted and the Gopher protocol replaced some wierd little startup called Google. Nowadays the only part of the internet that most people know is the web. Well, "Web 2.0" as they call it.
"I tell ye, back in the days, it was madness. We were just wasting leccy on solving stupid crypto puzzles. And now? The CureForCancerCoin has already found treatments for 37 different variaties of cancer. Thanks to the SearchForFTLCoin the communication to mars takes less than a second. We used to have higher latency between Australia and the States often enough back then. Ah ye, CryptoCurrencies 1.0, what a waste. But we used to love em anyway."

It's prize, damn it. You americans totally forgot engrish by now.

I predict, based on my own personal feeling and opinion, that the alt coins you mentioned will totally fail.  You can take that to the bank.

My God, you're right! I've run my own independent analysis, and have obtained eerily similar results:

http://i222.photobucket.com/albums/dd21/shadyparadox/FUDscribbles_zps07e9384c.png

Oh wait, never mind, I seem to have gathered outdated information.

http://i222.photobucket.com/albums/dd21/shadyparadox/FUD_zpsc898d4d6.png

The  Nobel Laureate in Economics is a big joke.

You must, absolutely must buy into the bullshit fabrication known as contemporary monetary policy to get award this award.  It is not awarded to anyone who sees things at all differently.  (At least as far as I know, can't say I studied it much, pls correct me if I'm wrong).

As bitcoin is in many ways different than the prevailing popular believes in economics, of course a Nobel Laurete is likely to be opposed to it. This doesn't seem very surprising to me.  Besides, many of these baby boomers probably just mastered the science of sending an email, I don't think they are even capable of understanding how bitcoin even works, it's probably as far-fetched as traveling faster than light to them.

Aren't these the same guys who caused the financial crash in the first place??
Must be hard for them not having control..

I think people posted this chart in 2010 the first time, when Bitcoin crashed from 50Cent to 20Cent. When did Bitcoin reach the phase "new paradigma"?

I was always told there was a price for everything

So how far does the price have to drop before this is officially a bubble pop and not a normal market correction? The previous ATH of $260? more?

ftfm

muahaha, awesome! Thanks for taking the time to do this.

/me makes mental note to search for "bubble stages chart answer pic bookmark"