Bitcoin Forum

I write a weekly BTC analysis column at commodityblog. Given it's an important time for the Bitcoin markets and Bitcoin as a whole, I thought I might share my opinion and analysis to everyone here, I'm sure it might help some of you.
This is my latest http://www.commodityblog.com/btc-technicals-january-27th-2014/

I've been actively contributing to reddit for a while now, and I thought I should do so here also.

Any and all comments and discussion on my the blog, my opinions and analysis are welcome. Thanks!

Thanx this is usefull

What do you mean by "the January 31st Deadline"?
Care to explain a little bit?

I thought people had heaard about it enough that I don't need to cite it anymore. January 31st is the last day payment companies and banks are allowed to deal in bitcoin.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-12-17/china-bans-payment-companies-from-clearing-bitcoin-news-says.html

You left out something very important: "January 31st is the last day payment companies and banks are allowed to deal in bitcoin in China."

@phr0stbyt3 Seriously? Where is that date from? Do you think it will ever make a comeback?

Thanks, yes it's only china. Really, I'm not here to spread any FUD, I'm sorry if it seemed so. It's just that I've dealt with this news so often that I guess I'm being a little causal about it.

The situation is so much different with and without the two words lol.
Thanks for your clarification though.  :)

In a way this is good news for the rest of the world because China will be left with holding worthless American fiat. They are sidelining themselves in the new global monetary revolution.

Well it's not all good. A majority of bitcoin trading still happens on chinese exchanges, and nobody is sure how these will be hit. Banks still process Yuan transactions for these exchanges ... for now. But given the open negative stance china has for bitcoin, who knows till when that will last. If that's banned too, the entire chinese market will basically move to local black markets. Not good at all. Meanwhile, russia also reveals an anti-bitcoin stance.

The date is directly from the peoples bank of China, "Companies currently offering services must end services by the Chinese New Year, a weeklong holiday that begins on Jan. 31, the newspaper cited Zhou Jinhuang, deputy director of payment clearance at the People’s Bank of China".
-http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-12-17/china-bans-payment-companies-from-clearing-bitcoin-news-says.html

China is notoriously oppressive with their monetary system so in the grand scheme of things it could have been much worse. Something along the lines of "any citizen involved in the buying, selling or trading BTC will be imprisoned without a trial for a minimum of 10 years" would have had a terrible effect on the bitconomy. Some people seem to think that Chinas involvement is overrated but personally I think the price would be much lower without it. I'm eagerly awaiting more news from the PBOC to really decide if they "outlawed" it or not.

Great work! Got new reader!

Interesting read to say the least. My person belief is that BTC will likely lose ~18-20% of it's value during the first part of Feb. before beginning to rally back near the end of the month. Barring some Cyprus-like event (cough cough UK) or a global shift in global consciousness towards crypto's in general.

*put's tin-foil hat away

You are assuming the trading supposedly going on in China is 100% genuine. That's quite a big assumption. But you are right the chinese market will move towards black market. But lots of black markets exist and some do very well indeed. Where there's a will there's a way.

Its a shame they gridlock their own growth. Because the more they buy up the bigger value it goes for us as well.

China is so huge.. meh whatever. We got europe at least.

We got Europe, US, Canada, Asia, and in future .... South America and Africa. Bitcoin doesn't need China. Missed opportunity for China.

Thanks!

Indeed, there is a good possibility that the trading there is not genuine, mainly because of the suspicious volume, 0 fees, etc. But still, a black market can't possibly do as well as a proper regulated market. Especially in bringing mainstream adoption or even confidence among people.

You are right in that under current regulations, there will be no "mainstream adoption". Confidence? Not so sure about that. That's the beauty of bitcoin. It doesn't need your government's endorsement for you to have confidence in it. You just have to believe it will gain traction globally. Chinese people are perfectly capable of investing in bitcoins, and traveling outside the country to "collect their winnings" ;)

Well, sure ... but if the government stays anti-bitcoin, you also need to have the confidence to not be caught holding bitcoin when the government makes stricter rules. You never know when they might come out and say "we're gonna hang everyone with >0.1 BTC from today" lol (god forbid)

lol. I don't think even the PRC is *that* against bitcoin.

The question is why isnt price taking off in an uptrend? all bad enws are behind us alreayd and we have been 200dollars higher than we are right now.

I think activity will pick up this week. I guess the bad news about Charles Shrem made this uptrend a bit more difficult, but now as the next week unfolds, if there is no huge news, we should see an uptrend.

I don't think anyone really cares about Charlie Shrem. The market has been moving sideways for weeks. Nothing is changing even with bad or good news. Very low volume. Quite spooky.

Yes but which way will it break out? I say down.

Haha. The only important question ..... I'm looking at the market and people keep trying to pump it above $800 and it keeps failing miserably. Nobody is buying into a rally. So on that basis, I tend to agree with you. But one thing I have learned watching bitcoin price analysis is that most of it is wrong :) that is why everyone says "probability 60/40" lol.

The paradox in my mind is that with this current price stability, people will spend bitcoins online, commentators are starting to call it a "stable currency" (idiots!), and that will be considered "good news" and make the price take off again!

Damn. Should have shorted!

https://i.imgur.com/ePiuMJ4.jpg

Damn. Should have shorted!

https://i.imgur.com/ePiuMJ4.jpg
[/quote]

Shorted 710 --> 680 twice :D A bit late on the bear train, but still!