Bitcoin Forum

Again, all the TA goes out the window which should save a few arguments on here because all the TA points to yet more downside just as/whenever this period of considerable low volume and stagnation breaks.

However, because this is Bitcoin, I feel that some whale entity is gonna throw a big wad of USD at this in order to break the $815 resistance point as well as the bearish technicals and try and instigate a move upwards which could force a small break out to the $825 - $835 range.

I am putting my money where my mouth is and coming out of my current short position as I type and shall be looking to go long from around 795 range or just whenever seems like a good time to get in.

On 4 Hour Bitstamp chart:

MACD
RSI
KDJ

Are all on a convincing down trajectory and to make a break-out (up) call on the back of all these indicators telling me the exact opposite, and then put my money where my mouth is, is sheer idiocy, but that is what I am doing.

Longer term, I still give Alms to KARHU, and believe that we shall see much lower prices. Much much lower.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/f/ff/Karhu.png

0.1BTC says it never goes below $750 (bitstamp) all of february!  :)

Hey its February now and its $804 at Bitstamp so you've just lost the bet  ???

QFT  ;)

$804 is below $750? Where am I?

Muriburiland!

YOu must have been playing video games when you should be on your math classes  ;D

That's how bears think... 804 lower than 750... Lol.

Bulls are wrong. Bears are wrong. It's going to trade at $800 for the next month.

How and why? there is much tension. it only needs to break.....

Good enough for me.

I dont't want to sound bearish, but isn't it that the chinese government still didn't release any comment on how they see the bitcoin regulations?
Actually it looks more like an other weekend rally is a time bomb.

thx
W

Four whole weeks more of sideways trading? Impossible, something's gonna give and I think it's the bears who will cave in.

sideways trading during first half of February....after that... ???

Bitcoin moves in myterious ways. Just when everyone thought it would go down or sideway...

I secured myself $160 profit that would now be a deficit by coming out of my short when Bitcoin was still at $800. Bitcoin is now at $813, and that would be a significant $813 where a reasonably high volume could be traded. A $13 rise is a significant rise to a swing trader, especially if that $13 does actually mean $13.

Anyways, I never got my long bets in cos:

a) It never dropped below what I came out my short sell at and my long bets were placed slightly below.

b) Once again, I couldn't get to sleep having long Bitcoin bets. Dreams of Bitcoin hitting low $700s (and me being down thousands) woke me out of my bed and I had to cancel my longs in order to get some sleep.

I say that either Bitcoin fizzles out beneath $815 resistance and then slides right back down, or some surge in whale buying power pushes it briefly over £815 resistance only for absolutely fuck all other market forces to be interested in keeping it there.

Bitcoin is going much lower and much lower within the month of February.

so we on?

I win far more than 0.1 BTC from the exchanges and if I am wrong I lose more.

But not below $750 for the whole month of February!? Do you know something that I don't?

Yeah, we are on!

P.S. If you are privvy to 'insider info', let me know when the next millionaire Bitcoin Nutter is going to throw 3 million USD at spiking the price up $15, so I can be ready to short immediately after the event.

Why do you think we will go below 750 again?
Sorry for my nooby question. I'm really interested in understanding all those movements.

Thx
W

Hehe, I know nothing mr Fawlty.

This is just me having a punt. It's about the limit of my 'day trading' speculation :D

Look at the charts. Take note of the parabolic rise, the double top, the crashes, followed by the slow recovery (market memory) right up to the $1000 resistance level. Then notice the descending triangle formation from the 6th Jan, until the break down on the 28th Jan.

In 9/10 text book examples, and by text book I mean actual real world examples, such a chart history would spell out lower lows.

But for now, we are pushing higher as I type, as I suspected we would. $835 is next important resistance level. I will be looking to short around about there.

Tyvm for your answer.
Atm it looks like some forces don't want to go lower pumping lots of cash into the market to prevent it from crashing.
Or they are just playing tricks.
Another 1k coins just bought on stamp while I'm typing.

Yep, so far it is happening like I predicted it would. I don't believe for a minute this is the great public chomping at the bit to pick up bargain $800 Bitcoins. This is rampers at their tricks. Doubt it is a pump n dump attempt though. I reckon it is more like Bitcoin 'supporters' trying to support the price. It is the rampers who will lose out financially here, not Joe Public.

Still a bit annoyed that I never got my long bet in as this would have paid of sweet by now, but when a man gets spooked out of his sleep whenever he is long Bitcoin, perhaps he shouldn't do it until such a point that he is no longer spooked by being long Bitcoin.

does anybody even listen to this?

If you listened when I posted it, you could have cashed in on a $25 rise u fkn dickwad.

You see Mat, when you predict long, you make it  ;D

lol

But then he fails to actually go long himself because his buy-in price is too low. :P

Matt, you went long for a second there, I'm so proud of you!

Based on basic data such as historical price movement and moving averages I've my own 'short term' prediction on:
- February (slightly bullish): could go as high as $850-900
- March (bearish): could go as low as $500
- April (bullish): back to around $900 and we'll remain on that level for a few months.

Just rough estimates, my focus is on larger trends rather than minor (in BTC world) 10% or $20 movements here and there.

Also these estimates are based on a 'no significant news' scenario (either positive or negative). I regard the chance of receiving significant negative news to be high. E.g. Chinese trading halts completely, Chinese exchange goes bust, large selling volume from seized coins or simply a whale-galore.

Disclaimer: I've no speculative-trading track record other than simply investing in BTC, so don't place your bets based on this. ;)

Oh wise guru MatTheCat, followed your advice (even though bear). Thanks for the profit.  ;D

Maybe a good piece of advice for next time: go long first, and only after you have bought in start a topic saying that the price is going up. ;)

Or vice versa ofcourse when you think the price is going down.

Actually, bet is off u shady lucker!

As u well know, if BTC goes to $1000, I pay you $100. If it goes to $500, u pay me $50.

Dishonourable contract null n void.

unless u want to bet for equivalent amount in real money. (GBP, USD, EUR)

If Mat's rampers hold the price in a channel until we are ready for the next rally, (based on the next chunk of very good news) the bears are screwed.
If they ensure we never get cheaper coins, bears will have no choice but to re buy at a loss.
It really depends on how deep the pockets of these rampers are, and if they are deep, now that they are committed to this course of action, they can't let the price fail and give the bears a chance to avoid their capitulation.
Several million dollars is probably enough to hold this price, they support a level, say $780, and on days like today offload some of those cheaper buys for a little profit. Thus holding the price in a channel. They are probably even making money.

Dishonourable!? lol. What's honour got to do with 'owt. I'm not sure you have thought this through fully ;)

Flipping it to a fiat bet is just as 'dishonourable', say we bet $100USD.

If it goes to $500 I have to pay you 0.2BTC
If it goes to $1000 You only have to pay me 0.1BTC

Why not hedge? i.e. if you are worried that you will lose then buy the 0.1BTC now for $80 then even if it went to $10000, you'd still only be down the $80 you paid.

Equally I could sell my 0.1BTC for $80 now then if it went to $500 I could buy back 0.16BTC and only be down 0.4BTC.

Of course I would never get the benefit of any further move past $750 as I expect you would be knocking on my door the instant it hit $749.99 hehe

Still, as I am confident I would not lose I was prepared to accept that!

https://i.imgur.com/7y5i0IYl.png

UH OH! (http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:falling_wedge)

In other words, you saw the spike in price and now want to call off the bet.

What?

I saw the spike in price that I predicted in this thread, the thread which I started predicting a spike to 825-835 range, which has now happened....

.....and now that my prediction has come to pass, I am running scared, is that what you are saying  ???

Spastic!

mi nombre es proudyuan, i come to post of dos Latin Americas. in dos Latin Americas, much fear was spread by FUD y rumor of China ban on 31-Jan. Now es clear no such bad events will occur, so price rise es happening because average emotion based traders are jumping back in as they see las ship sailing and price rising. es not big whales causing price rise but many small fish swimming together, es good hombres. gracias

Christ on a Bike.

How many times on this descending triangle could a bulltard have drawn these arbitrary trend lines only for them to be broken on bullshit nothing volume only for the market to then sink back down to the $765 support?

http://imageshack.com/a/img706/5467/bz9g.png

And how many times have we breached that all important $765 high volume support and what does it mean 9/10 times when such a scenario arises?

Doesn't mean there isn't going to be upside opportunities and I hope there is upside opportunities because since Bitfinex have stopped allowing orders to be routed through Bitstamp, I have no place that I trust to make short trades, therefore, I am now a part time bull, or rather, a bear looking for bullish opportunities, but I know two things.

I wake up from my sleep when I have long Bitcoin trades on, due to spooked out Bitcoin dreams.

The prevailing technicals are all pointing down the way.

Lots of times! and its always fun to speculate :)

I had a dream it was back up over $1000 last night. Dreams are funny!

See to me sideways in the bitcoin world is actually down.

So when I see sideways, on low volume, thats bullish to me.

YMMV

This is perhaps the best thing I've read in months. Thank you.

Dude, it was a bad bet, everyone knew it was a bad bet as soon as you said it. If you choose not to pay out, who cares? (except sgbett, and I suspect he cares very little) If you can't sleep at night holding a long position in btc, and yet you can sleep well at night knowing that you have refused to pay out a contract in btc, then we will simply continue to agree to disagree.




but seriously dude? 500? really? on what exchange?

Intersango

500 GBP

It is currently just 11GBP there so I win!

(the bet was that Bitcoin holds up above $750 for the rest of Feb, Bitstamp until I realised that it was a skewed bet which sgbett knew of course to begin with)

Well, I'm sorry MatTheCat, but until you learn to let go of your fear, you will not reach your potential.



 (kudos on last 2 near term predictions btw)

Fear is a valuable instinct.

It prevents me from doing things like jumping in front of trains.

I will never ignore my fears, especially not if they are subconscious fears that come a knocking in my dreams. That means that my subconscious mind is scared of something that my conscious mind is either not scared off or is unaware off.

Unless of course you actually read the post where I explained how you would be mug not to take this bet if you actually believed it was going below $750. You could sell your 0.1BTC right now, then as soon as it does dip below 750 you get your 0.1BTC back. You know how shorting works though right ;)

Your theoretical unfairness only applies if you think its going up astronomically. If you *do* think its going up Buy 0.1BTC now to hedge against that happening. (then you are only "paying out" what you bought the BTC for).

This is a golden opportunity to short! You get all of feb, there is no capital outlay, there is no chance of a margin call, and you can hedge (if you wish, either at todays price or set a limit order on bitstamp for $750 that way you'll be guaranteed $75 for your winnings if its fiat thats important to you). I'm starting to think trading is the wrong game for you if you can't see how all this works!

Of course if you *do* think its going up then sure, don't take the bet.

Just remember you are the one starting threads around here saying its going down. Telling everyone how much you are shorting etc. Here's your chance to take that trade virtually risk free.

I thought an actual side bet might lend a little credibility to your assertion. I don't trade as a rule, but I do gamble every now and again for fun. I think one of us has it the right way round ;)

If we bet, then £50, converted into Bitcoin at 00:00 1st March 2014.

I am currently long Bitcoin and won't be short for quite some time since Bitfinex have removed my ability to place stops on an exchange I trust (Bitstamp), leaving me to trade solely on an exchange I don't trust (Bitfinex). These fuckers have robbed me for the last time after a short sell I made at practically the top of that spike got called after a big sell wall that my stop order was hiding behind, vanished.

I am as of yet undecided what Bitcoin is going to do around the next corner. But since long term indicators as per the 4 hour charts all suggest more downside, regardless of any short term uptime, I will take that bet right now if you wish. If I lose, I will definitely stump up, but I do work offshore and have no reliable timetable for when I will be around (and capable of BTC transaction) or not. I give you this warning in advance.

As confident as I am about Bitcoin (being a "Bitcoin nutter" and whatnot), I've experienced a decent amount of fear in the past three years. I realize how much risk is involved in a project this disruptive. Although, the risk continues to reduce as time marches on.

The trick is determining which fear is rational and which fear is irrational.

Are you afraid of that high speed locomotive or are you afraid of the boogie man?

So far, most fear related to Bitcoin has been of the boogie man kind. It's odd, the one event which truly frightened me (the temporary fork) had almost no impact on the exchange rate.

Once you learn that the market actually reacts to these boogie men, you can probably make some wildly successful trades. I sometimes "make calls" to myself even though I don't trust any of the exchanges to actually go through with them. My last two calls were to sell on the silk road news, and sell on the China news. Both times I was in a position to react before the exchange rate moved. I could have made a fair amount of money (more bitcoins) in both situations. Hindsight is, of course, 20/20.

You couldn't pay me to send Bitfinex any amount of bitcoin or dollars.

Why not?

What do you know about them?

I mean, I think that anyone placing orders, and especially stop loss orders on Bitfinex is liable to get their ass run over by a combine harvester, but when I could route Bitfinex trades through Bitstamp I generally had a good experience on there.

Is this another likely vanishing with everyone's USD and BTC exchange?

I know nothing about them, and that is exactly the point.

Their contact page tells me basically nothing.

If I feel like I have no recourse should they vanish with my money, I'm probably not going to be doing business with them.

https://www.bitfinex.com/pages/announcements

Why not (what a novel idea!) trade on stamp directly?

higher commission (for low volume or non intraday traders), and bitfinex requires no docs for accounts with no fiat (bank) transactions, i believe.

Bitstamp lacks a lot of trading options. But I am now looking at a trading bot for triggering Stop Loss orders etc. Also Bitfinex allows for shorting.


Fixed that for you.

Believe me when I tell you, that had I been able to place my stop-loss on Bitstamp, it would not have been triggered and I would have been onto a home run with a short sell at near peak of spike-up. But I was forced to go through Bitfinex where I was mugged, again. I take compensation from it being for the last fkn time from these snidey rats, or the snidey rats who shark about on their exchange.

Fuck Bitfinex.

I think you are still stuck valuing BTC in fiat. I'm betting bitcoin because thats what I have, and I wish to speculate with it to gain more. You are asking me to take a bet where any strong move in my favour reduces my 'winnings' because I will get less than the 0.1BTC that I originally wagered.

*That* sounds like a shitty bet to me.

You are already long BTC so you already have 0.1BTC to spare I am sure. I am long BTC so I have 0.1BTC to spare.

The only significance of the $price, is that is what decides the outcome. If you choose to buy/sell the 0.1BTC at the exact moment the bet ends then yes it is worth whatever the prevailing rate is. However I am not planning on doing that. I am just interested in trying to double up on little bit of my stash.

So invent all the stories you want about me trying to scam you, I suppose I am just the same as everyone else that is out to get you at the moment. You should see a doc about that.

One last time I'll explain how you make it worth your while. If you are truly convinced it is going down, then sell 0.1BTC right now. Then when it goes below $750 and I send you 0.1BTC you are $81 up (stamp price 818 right now) and you have the same number of BTC as you did before. You just succesfully shorted BTC for $$$PROFIT.

I'm always banking on BTC rising, this bet is no exception. I'm simply "buying" BTC with BTC, because I don't have fiat on any exchange.

I'm effectively leveraging 0.1BTC at x2 and my margin call is at $750

I am not falling into your game.

BTC is not money. GBP is money.

If you want a bet, we bet in GBP, and we use BTC as a means of transferring that relatively fixed and reliable unit of value.

The offer on Intersango is 350 GBP, i.e. 575 USD

This is one of the most interesting posts about trading I have read in a long time.  Thanks for the perspective.

So your complaint is that you placed an order, which got filled.  You made an offer, and someone took it.  Kind of like your bet with sgbett.

I placed a stop order, behind a Liar Ask wall, which vanished as my stop loss order was called at the very top of the market. Bitstamp was already retreating fast, yet Bitfinex bid up, with the bulk of the trade neatly over lapping my margin call by just a few cents.

I can't prove it was foul play, but it certainly smelled like foul play and that will be the last time I use that exchange.

Why is it that I have the ability to place a stop loss on Bitstamp that guarantees that I lose no more than a few hundred dollars on a leveraged short sell, that almost never gets called, whereas on Bitfinex, I am required to risk losing at least one thousand to have the same chances of it not getting called?

The answer seems a simple one to me.

 Mat, you'll get yourself a cancer if you continue like this.

You're taking it too personally and to be honest I'm not sure you have idea what you are doing.

Stop fucking up with  BTC vs USD pair, you're going to affect your health. Go trade altcoins, there is 10 times more money to made over there.

It's funny how you bitch and moan about "manipulator this and whale rats that", but when it comes down to it you actually trust the biggest, manipulating whale rats of them all: central bankers.

w/e i'll be over here (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=444491.0) in this other thread. it looks infinitely more fun than this one. please do keep taking yourself so seriously. its hilarious.

do it the normal way, qt bitcoin trader can do stop loss and even trigger trading on all four major exchanges. just don't shoot yourself in the face with the execution rules, start slow.

Having jacked in Bitfinex for good, I tried QT Bitcoin trader and watched with horror as a massive 500 BTC sell off run past my stop loss price, only for QT Bitcoin Trader to remain idle. If that was one of Bitcoins famous mega-crashes and I was relying on this program to save my bacon, I would have been screwed.

Not to be trusted.

yes, as I said, easy to shoot yourself if you are not paying attention to what you are doing. you probably had your stop loss rule disabled or set up incorrectly.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pWguThH1ZCk

Man I am so sweating I might lose 0.1BTC... oh wait nobody took me up on it...  ::)

I don't care about winning your £50 that you thought would turn into £100 if you called it right. If you wanted to make that bet in real money, I would have met it and used an appropriate amount of Bitcoin to transact the amount of real money had I lost. But I was never going to lose, cos I was betting against you, and like most of the broken records on this forum, you are only ever right when the market is going up.

is the bet still on? ;D

ITT

http://www.blogcdn.com/www.urlesque.com/media/2010/08/687px-trolling101_570x497.jpg

I think one of us is taking himself a bit seriously. I also think its not me.

You may say that but I am a late adopter and am rolling around a ball of capital in Bitcoin that is enough to live off for a year and I can't afford to have my mind polluted by utter bollocks. This is why I am on the defensive so much and perhaps this means that I may miss a trick or two, but on aggregate I make more money and more to the point in a clear bear market, I avoid losing money by generally being intolerant of people who disagree with me on what Bitcoin happens to be doing. Take you for example. Every single time we have had a little Bitcoin 'debate' events have proven you wrong. Every single time.

As I type this, Bitcoin has just dipped below $750 on Stamp, so that is yet another example of you being wrong. I am here because I have taken it upon myself to have a vested financial interest in Bitcoin. If I let the aimless and frankly clueless ramblings of posters such as you affect my Bitcoin decisions, I would be seriously underwater by now. I wouldn't even be in a position to be arguing with the likes of you on whether I should short or go long on Bitcoin at $820, because I would still be holding on in vain for Bitcoin to get back up to $1100 just in order to break even on coins that various other Bitcoin Nutters insisted that I should hold, and then implied I was an idiot for selling....and btw, I can't go short Bitcoin now cos my instincts told me that Bitfinex was not to be trusted so I shifted my funds off the exchange and then 3-4 days later the site gets hacked. So now I am just a bear waiting on a good time to become a long term bull and I think I may have to wait some time yet.

Can you see why I am perhaps a bit hyperphobic towards other peoples bullish in the face of common sense 'opinions'? If I had allowed them to affect me, then it would have generally meant that I lose money.

I hate losing money more than I like winning money.

Every time you say i have been proven wrong you miss the simple fact that the game isn't over.

Matthecat like to ass it up by always loosing money, checkout:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=453377.0