Another MatTheCat Near Term Price Prediction.

[sgbett]

UH OH!

Christ on a Bike.

How many times on this descending triangle could a bulltard have drawn these arbitrary trend lines only for them to be broken on bullshit nothing volume only for the market to then sink back down to the $765 support?



And how many times have we breached that all important $765 high volume support and what does it mean 9/10 times when such a scenario arises?

Doesn't mean there isn't going to be upside opportunities and I hope there is upside opportunities because since Bitfinex have stopped allowing orders to be routed through Bitstamp, I have no place that I trust to make short trades, therefore, I am now a part time bull, or rather, a bear looking for bullish opportunities, but I know two things.

I wake up from my sleep when I have long Bitcoin trades on, due to spooked out Bitcoin dreams.

The prevailing technicals are all pointing down the way.

Lots of times! and its always fun to speculate

I had a dream it was back up over $1000 last night. Dreams are funny!

[sgbett]

See to me sideways in the bitcoin world is actually down.

So when I see sideways, on low volume, thats bullish to me.

YMMV

[shmadz]

mi nombre es proudyuan, i come to post of dos Latin Americas. in dos Latin Americas, much fear was spread by FUD y rumor of China ban on 31-Jan. Now es clear no such bad events will occur, so price rise es happening because average emotion based traders are jumping back in as they see las ship sailing and price rising. es not big whales causing price rise but many small fish swimming together, es good hombres. gracias

This is perhaps the best thing I've read in months. Thank you.

[shmadz]

Hehe, I know nothing mr Fawlty.

This is just me having a punt. It's about the limit of my 'day trading' speculation

Actually, bet is off u shady lucker!

As u well know, if BTC goes to $1000, I pay you $100. If it goes to $500, u pay me $50.

Dishonourable contract null n void.

unless u want to bet for equivalent amount in real money. (GBP, USD, EUR)

Dude, it was a bad bet, everyone knew it was a bad bet as soon as you said it. If you choose not to pay out, who cares? (except sgbett, and I suspect he cares very little) If you can't sleep at night holding a long position in btc, and yet you can sleep well at night knowing that you have refused to pay out a contract in btc, then we will simply continue to agree to disagree.




but seriously dude? 500? really? on what exchange?

[MatTheCat]

but seriously dude? 500? really? on what exchange?

Intersango

500 GBP

It is currently just 11GBP there so I win!

(the bet was that Bitcoin holds up above $750 for the rest of Feb, Bitstamp until I realised that it was a skewed bet which sgbett knew of course to begin with)

[shmadz]

but seriously dude? 500? really? on what exchange?

Intersango

500 GBP

It is currently just 11GBP there so I win!

(the bet was that Bitcoin holds up above $750 for the rest of Feb, Bitstamp until I realised that it was a skewed bet which sgbett knew of course to begin with)

Well, I'm sorry MatTheCat, but until you learn to let go of your fear, you will not reach your potential.



 (kudos on last 2 near term predictions btw)

[MatTheCat]

Well, I'm sorry MatTheCat, but until you learn to let go of your fear, you will not reach your potential.

Fear is a valuable instinct.

It prevents me from doing things like jumping in front of trains.

I will never ignore my fears, especially not if they are subconscious fears that come a knocking in my dreams. That means that my subconscious mind is scared of something that my conscious mind is either not scared off or is unaware off.

[sgbett]

...until I realised that it was a skewed bet which sgbett knew of course to begin with)

Unless of course you actually read the post where I explained how you would be mug not to take this bet if you actually believed it was going below $750. You could sell your 0.1BTC right now, then as soon as it does dip below 750 you get your 0.1BTC back. You know how shorting works though right

Your theoretical unfairness only applies if you think its going up astronomically. If you *do* think its going up Buy 0.1BTC now to hedge against that happening. (then you are only "paying out" what you bought the BTC for).

This is a golden opportunity to short! You get all of feb, there is no capital outlay, there is no chance of a margin call, and you can hedge (if you wish, either at todays price or set a limit order on bitstamp for $750 that way you'll be guaranteed $75 for your winnings if its fiat thats important to you). I'm starting to think trading is the wrong game for you if you can't see how all this works!

Of course if you *do* think its going up then sure, don't take the bet.

Just remember you are the one starting threads around here saying its going down. Telling everyone how much you are shorting etc. Here's your chance to take that trade virtually risk free.

I thought an actual side bet might lend a little credibility to your assertion. I don't trade as a rule, but I do gamble every now and again for fun. I think one of us has it the right way round

[MatTheCat]

I thought an actual side bet might lend a little credibility to your assertion. I don't trade as a rule, but I do gamble every now and again for fun. I think one of us has it the right way round

If we bet, then £50, converted into Bitcoin at 00:00 1st March 2014.

I am currently long Bitcoin and won't be short for quite some time since Bitfinex have removed my ability to place stops on an exchange I trust (Bitstamp), leaving me to trade solely on an exchange I don't trust (Bitfinex). These fuckers have robbed me for the last time after a short sell I made at practically the top of that spike got called after a big sell wall that my stop order was hiding behind, vanished.

I am as of yet undecided what Bitcoin is going to do around the next corner. But since long term indicators as per the 4 hour charts all suggest more downside, regardless of any short term uptime, I will take that bet right now if you wish. If I lose, I will definitely stump up, but I do work offshore and have no reliable timetable for when I will be around (and capable of BTC transaction) or not. I give you this warning in advance.

[Holliday]

Well, I'm sorry MatTheCat, but until you learn to let go of your fear, you will not reach your potential.

Fear is a valuable instinct.

It prevents me from doing things like jumping in front of trains.

I will never ignore my fears, especially not if they are subconscious fears that come a knocking in my dreams. That means that my subconscious mind is scared of something that my conscious mind is either not scared off or is unaware off.

As confident as I am about Bitcoin (being a "Bitcoin nutter" and whatnot), I've experienced a decent amount of fear in the past three years. I realize how much risk is involved in a project this disruptive. Although, the risk continues to reduce as time marches on.

The trick is determining which fear is rational and which fear is irrational.

Are you afraid of that high speed locomotive or are you afraid of the boogie man?

So far, most fear related to Bitcoin has been of the boogie man kind. It's odd, the one event which truly frightened me (the temporary fork) had almost no impact on the exchange rate.

Once you learn that the market actually reacts to these boogie men, you can probably make some wildly successful trades. I sometimes "make calls" to myself even though I don't trust any of the exchanges to actually go through with them. My last two calls were to sell on the silk road news, and sell on the China news. Both times I was in a position to react before the exchange rate moved. I could have made a fair amount of money (more bitcoins) in both situations. Hindsight is, of course, 20/20.

[Holliday]

I am currently long Bitcoin and won't be short for quite some time since Bitfinex have removed my ability to place stops on an exchange I trust (Bitstamp), leaving me to trade solely on an exchange I don't trust (Bitfinex). These fuckers have robbed me for the last time after a short sell I made at practically the top of that spike got called after a big sell wall that my stop order was hiding behind, vanished.

You couldn't pay me to send Bitfinex any amount of bitcoin or dollars.

[MatTheCat]

You couldn't pay me to send Bitfinex any amount of bitcoin or dollars.

Why not?

What do you know about them?

I mean, I think that anyone placing orders, and especially stop loss orders on Bitfinex is liable to get their ass run over by a combine harvester, but when I could route Bitfinex trades through Bitstamp I generally had a good experience on there.

Is this another likely vanishing with everyone's USD and BTC exchange?

[Holliday]

You couldn't pay me to send Bitfinex any amount of bitcoin or dollars.

Why not?

What do you know about them?

I mean, I think that anyone placing orders, and especially stop loss orders on Bitfinex is liable to get their ass run over by a combine harvester, but when I could route Bitfinex trades through Bitstamp I generally had a good experience on there.

Is this another likely vanishing with everyone's USD and BTC exchange?

I know nothing about them, and that is exactly the point.

Their contact page tells me basically nothing.

If I feel like I have no recourse should they vanish with my money, I'm probably not going to be doing business with them.

[ampere9765]

https://www.bitfinex.com/pages/announcements

Lastly, and perhaps
most importantly, we have listened to your feedback and we agree that trying
to superimpose two order books with different pricing is confusing,
forcing traders to do a lot of extra math when all they really want to do is
trade. Going forward, we will no longer be showing “Bitstamp” orders on our
book, but rather regular “BFX” orders reflecting Bitstamp liquidity, but
priced and grouped in such a way that BFX commission rules can be applied
uniformly to all trades on the platform. This change has (or will have) a
number of positive side effects, including:

[oda.krell]

I thought an actual side bet might lend a little credibility to your assertion. I don't trade as a rule, but I do gamble every now and again for fun. I think one of us has it the right way round

If we bet, then £50, converted into Bitcoin at 00:00 1st March 2014.

I am currently long Bitcoin and won't be short for quite some time since Bitfinex have removed my ability to place stops on an exchange I trust (Bitstamp), leaving me to trade solely on an exchange I don't trust (Bitfinex). These fuckers have robbed me for the last time after a short sell I made at practically the top of that spike got called after a big sell wall that my stop order was hiding behind, vanished.

I am as of yet undecided what Bitcoin is going to do around the next corner. But since long term indicators as per the 4 hour charts all suggest more downside, regardless of any short term uptime, I will take that bet right now if you wish. If I lose, I will definitely stump up, but I do work offshore and have no reliable timetable for when I will be around (and capable of BTC transaction) or not. I give you this warning in advance.

Why not (what a novel idea!) trade on stamp directly?

[ampere9765]

I thought an actual side bet might lend a little credibility to your assertion. I don't trade as a rule, but I do gamble every now and again for fun. I think one of us has it the right way round

If we bet, then £50, converted into Bitcoin at 00:00 1st March 2014.

I am currently long Bitcoin and won't be short for quite some time since Bitfinex have removed my ability to place stops on an exchange I trust (Bitstamp), leaving me to trade solely on an exchange I don't trust (Bitfinex). These fuckers have robbed me for the last time after a short sell I made at practically the top of that spike got called after a big sell wall that my stop order was hiding behind, vanished.

I am as of yet undecided what Bitcoin is going to do around the next corner. But since long term indicators as per the 4 hour charts all suggest more downside, regardless of any short term uptime, I will take that bet right now if you wish. If I lose, I will definitely stump up, but I do work offshore and have no reliable timetable for when I will be around (and capable of BTC transaction) or not. I give you this warning in advance.

Why not (what a novel idea!) trade on stamp directly?

higher commission (for low volume or non intraday traders), and bitfinex requires no docs for accounts with no fiat (bank) transactions, i believe.

[MatTheCat]

Why not (what a novel idea!) trade on stamp directly?

Bitstamp lacks a lot of trading options. But I am now looking at a trading bot for triggering Stop Loss orders etc. Also Bitfinex allows for shorting.

https://www.bitfinex.com/pages/announcements

Lastly, and perhaps
most importantly, we have listened to your feedback and we agree that trying
to superimpose two order books with different pricing is confusing,
forcing traders to do a lot of extra math when all they really want to do is
trade. Going forward, we will no longer be showing “Bitstamp” orders on our
book, but rather regular “BFX” orders reflecting Bitstamp liquidity, but
priced and grouped in such a way that BFX commission rules can be applied
uniformly to all trades on the platform. This change has (or will have) a
number of positive side effects, including:
Allowing staff trading bots to erect liar Ask/Bid walls to facilitate with the farming of traders' stop loss orders

Fixed that for you.

Believe me when I tell you, that had I been able to place my stop-loss on Bitstamp, it would not have been triggered and I would have been onto a home run with a short sell at near peak of spike-up. But I was forced to go through Bitfinex where I was mugged, again. I take compensation from it being for the last fkn time from these snidey rats, or the snidey rats who shark about on their exchange.

Fuck Bitfinex.

[sgbett]

I thought an actual side bet might lend a little credibility to your assertion. I don't trade as a rule, but I do gamble every now and again for fun. I think one of us has it the right way round

If we bet, then £50, converted into Bitcoin at 00:00 1st March 2014.

I am currently long Bitcoin and won't be short for quite some time since Bitfinex have removed my ability to place stops on an exchange I trust (Bitstamp), leaving me to trade solely on an exchange I don't trust (Bitfinex). These fuckers have robbed me for the last time after a short sell I made at practically the top of that spike got called after a big sell wall that my stop order was hiding behind, vanished.

I am as of yet undecided what Bitcoin is going to do around the next corner. But since long term indicators as per the 4 hour charts all suggest more downside, regardless of any short term uptime, I will take that bet right now if you wish. If I lose, I will definitely stump up, but I do work offshore and have no reliable timetable for when I will be around (and capable of BTC transaction) or not. I give you this warning in advance.

I think you are still stuck valuing BTC in fiat. I'm betting bitcoin because thats what I have, and I wish to speculate with it to gain more. You are asking me to take a bet where any strong move in my favour reduces my 'winnings' because I will get less than the 0.1BTC that I originally wagered.

*That* sounds like a shitty bet to me.

You are already long BTC so you already have 0.1BTC to spare I am sure. I am long BTC so I have 0.1BTC to spare.

The only significance of the $price, is that is what decides the outcome. If you choose to buy/sell the 0.1BTC at the exact moment the bet ends then yes it is worth whatever the prevailing rate is. However I am not planning on doing that. I am just interested in trying to double up on little bit of my stash.

So invent all the stories you want about me trying to scam you, I suppose I am just the same as everyone else that is out to get you at the moment. You should see a doc about that.

One last time I'll explain how you make it worth your while. If you are truly convinced it is going down, then sell 0.1BTC right now. Then when it goes below $750 and I send you 0.1BTC you are $81 up (stamp price 818 right now) and you have the same number of BTC as you did before. You just succesfully shorted BTC for $$$PROFIT.

I'm always banking on BTC rising, this bet is no exception. I'm simply "buying" BTC with BTC, because I don't have fiat on any exchange.

I'm effectively leveraging 0.1BTC at x2 and my margin call is at $750

[MatTheCat]

I'm effectively leveraging 0.1BTC at x2 and my margin call is at $750

I am not falling into your game.

BTC is not money. GBP is money.

If you want a bet, we bet in GBP, and we use BTC as a means of transferring that relatively fixed and reliable unit of value.

[aminorex]

Intersango

500 GBP

It is currently just 11GBP there so I win!

(the bet was that Bitcoin holds up above $750 for the rest of Feb, Bitstamp until I realised that it was a skewed bet which sgbett knew of course to begin with)

The offer on Intersango is 350 GBP, i.e. 575 USD