Bitcoin Forum

I saw the news today, Binance CEO said, 2018 bitcoin correction price similar to 2014, what do you think?

So many people focus on the momentum of short-term bitcoin, so they tend to forget the overall situation. Over the years, bitcoins have seen numerous peaks and lows. I don't think this year will be a repeat of 2014.

Not only that, but I'm sure that the price of bitcoin today is still higher and higher than the price of a person today.

I think not really like 2014 but nearly that.

No one is accept this news because 2014 economic growth is differ from current trend so this price variation is common issue of regulation so this will move to forward soon and many peoples are always believe the Crypto potential. If you don't believe my words try to research your own definitely you will support this community.

there are similarities between the two times but not that many.
- 2018 and 2014 are both a period of time that fall after one of the many big bubbles that bitcoin had. they both are the bear market aftermath. the similarity ends there!

- 2013 bubble was mostly a fake bubble that was created by 90% fake volume and pure manipulation and a little real money going in.
2017 bubble was partly fake bubble and manipulation like less than 10% fake volume if I am generous. the 2017 bubbles was not as big as 2013 bubble either.

- 2014 bear market started with the bubble burst and correction but intensified by the Mt Gox scam
2018 bear market started with the bubble burst and correction but intensified by basically no reason! mostly FUD and panic sells and people wanting to take advantage of the situation to short bitcoin and also abuse the Futures that are currently available to us!!!

- in 2014 there weren't that many big altcoins or ICOs to pull the bitcoin price down but in 2018 there are lots of them around which are getting dumped hard and pulling bitcoin down with themselves.

In 2014 the biggest bitcoin exchange got hacked and huge amounts of funds went missing. In 2018 next to nothing has really happened to warrant such a dramatic increase. The only real parallel between the two is they were both large spikes followed by downtrends. 2018 shouldn't follow 2014 in being a long bear market unless something significant happens to make that the case.

The current momentum of encrypted currency is not positive. For novice users, this seems to be the end of the beginning and the process of bubble waiting.

it is just a prediction. and there are two possibilities that will occur, that is, true predictions or predictions are inconsistent with reality. Belief or distrust is your right.

Just open the charts and see for yourself. There is a post in WO with pictures from 2014 and this year. But This years it all is happening with x2 speed.    In general is totally normal that after every bubble there is strong bear market. That happened 4 times in Bitcoin already. Not only in 2014.

let me find that post for you:  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg40114021#msg40114021 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg40114021#msg40114021)

https://image.prntscr.com/image/LvWdbliRTtqYzFCzbZCq5A.png

I think he is saying the truth! In 2012 and 2013 that we see bitcoin getting usual price pump and from January 2014 we see a dump because investors were trying to take profits from the gains in previous year.  The current dump was still at the results of the gains bitcoin and others cryptocurrencies got in 2017 and I agree that 2018 is going to be a corrections year. Only margin and speculative traders are going to make money through trading this year.

No investors did not take profits. Those that joined Bitcoin in 2013 joined for fast profit. To get rich fast and when price of Bitcoin tanked like it tanked in 2018 people are losing money. They did not bought Bitcoin to lose money. They also did not bought bitcoin to gain nothing but stay same as was happening in 2015.   That is why they were selling in 2014 and also in 2015 and that is why they will sell in 2018 and 2019. Only in 2020 we will see this stupid money to return to Bitcoin.  And then the circus will start again.

The year 2014, the price of bitcoin was playing around $650-$1,000 and it was very unstable due to various factors (such as: the shutting down of Mt. Gox and the uncertainty of China's government into banning bitcoin). What really separates bitcoin currently compared to the past years is the media and the number of investors inclined into investing. Most investors seem to take advantage of its volatile nature- which may give them a window of opportunity of earning large amounts of cash on a short amount of time compared to other investment tools present.

Personally, I doubt that bitcoin prices would fall to that price range but this will highly depend on the future circumstances and news regarding its legalization and status. In order to prevent our investments into losing its value further, our mission is to be fully updated on the news circulating regarding cryptocurrency, whether it involves prohibition or acceptance on a country.

Link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_bitcoin#2014

Many people gives their views and no one can predict the exact fortune of Bitcoin. May be he is right or may be he is wrong, every thing depends on how Bitcoin performs in future and this year. In short term Bitcoin cannot give that much output as per the current market trend but in a long run, Bitcoin will definitely rech the moon in price, demand and supply.

The correction is over people need to move on the price is not going to go that much lower but I do not expect to see a much higher price for the rest of the year either, so this year is going to be in a way a boring one without too much going on from now on, this is bad if you are a speculator but if you are a long term holder this is the perfect time to buy coins at good prices.

every year there will definitely be a very distinctly different value change that is currently much higher than in 2014. so I think how it can be from 2018 like 2014 whereas currently Bitcoin is very popular known to many people even almost the whole world knows Bitcoin.

Why, because of the Willy Bot? Or volume pumping on Chinese exchanges?

I'm not sure I buy that. Whether or not the above happened, the fact is that real demand existed at those bubble prices. Real buyers pushed the price up across the world regardless of what was happening on Gox. Same goes for the Tether manipulation claims now.

The behavior of bitcoin is never repeated. I do not understand what is based on the assumption that bitcoin will repeat the situation in 2014. In order for the price to go up, it is necessary to destabilize the market. Now it is necessary to invest more money than in 2014. It seems to me that bitcoin will become more stable and predictable.

In essence that the price of Bitcoin can never be predicted quickly. All changes are currently unexpected and not all conditions can be predicted correctly. As we know that the price of Bitcoin will always change every year, it is characteristic and will never change. Oh yes all Bitcoin's decisive prices are all of us, as long as we believe in Bitcoin then positive sentiments will always be there and when we start leaving Bitcoin then bitcoin prices will start to get reduction.

I think the current bitcoin price cannot be compared to the dark story of 2014, where the bitcoin price at that time reached its lowest point. I think the price will now keep moving up and it will not touch its lowest point.

It is normal since we have so many people who have invested in the peak and you would not actually expect them not to complain until they also enter the league of those who would not have to get worried about their investment going lower.
This year may repeat the same incident with 2014 and it may not, as no one knows for real, the only thing we can expect is that this year will get to do its own thing, but if we are to be realistic technically, i do not think the market is done yet with the downward move.

At least, with the way things are going, it sure looks similar and I would not be surprised if we get to see something pretty similar knowing that the huge correction was imminent anyway. Nevertheless, it is hard to always judge the state of the market by what must have happened in the past, so in that way, I tend to always stay with the trend presently and see where it leads, but there is a huge possibility that this can sure happen.

Honestly I am praying not to have a similar year of 2014. After hitting $1200 in late 2013, bitcoin made a low in 2015 January. In between months were full of ups downs which are exact same as what we are having after hitting $19,800 in late 2017. We all need a new ATH right away to break all these.

yeah but the difference is that all the manipulation of 2014 (Mt Gox and willy bot and all the rest) were happening in one place, a place which was controlling the whole market because it  controlled all the volume and nearly all traders were there. checking the volume percentages Mt Gox had more than 85-90% of the daily trading volume. the influence of an exchange with such volume share is great.

I agree about the Tether and the manipulation of 2018 but in comparison Tether for instance happened in a tiny part of the whole market because exchanges like bitfinex control a tiny part of the volume and number of investors. bitfinex has 10% of the volume best case and that is only assuming the  volume is not fake. any manipulation happening there was also minimal.

just because 2014 was the LAST bubble it doesn't mean it is similar to 2018 one. the fact is the circumstances were very different in each case that you can say they have absolutely nothing in common!
but unfortunately the way of thinking is also known to affect the price a lot more than circumstances so as more people start thinking that way we may end up seeing the same market afterall!

the difference in value is also very far away and I think the value of bitcoin now cannot be compared just like the dark year 2014 ago.

It has got some resemblance. However, the Mt Gox hack which cut the bull market of 2013 short was much more negative for the market because of the fact that Mt Gox was virtually the only major exchange that is operational at the time. And also, the market was just a lot less mature.

I expect that the prices will drop to a similar percentage (around 20-25%) in relation to the peak price this year compared to the 2014 correction, which means that we probably will see the $6k floor being broken and a bottom established at lower levels.

Similar to how the bear market ended 2 years ago, I also believe that we'll see some bullishness come back into the market in 2020 due to the halving.

Note that these are very approximate figures and the real figures may be a bit off, but these are cycles within BTC price that are apparent to me.

At that year there were only investors many of which were the new comers and one of the bigger exchange hacked the users while in this year there are many companies continuously adopting bitcoin the image of bitcoin is increasing more bigger with the passage of time in this year. The investors may sell but the companies owners cannot deny the use of it and that use make the demand which recover the price of bitcoin faster. In this year 2018 the price will rise like 2017.

I get what you're saying. But I think if you're going to lend credence to Gox manipulation because of its influence on the market, I think the same logic applies to Bitfinex/Tether.

Personally, in 2013, I found the Chinese exchanges (Huobi in particular) dominated price action more than Mt Gox. And yeah, I don't think volume matters that much. None of it is verifiable and many (if not most) exchanges are suspected of faking volume.

But if we are going to say Gox controlled the market, it should be pointed out that Bitfinex has a tangible influence on the market. As a trader, you simply cannot ignore Bitfinex. In terms of exchanges reacting to one another, they are the most dominant exchange in the world. They are always the first chart I open and what I use for setting alarms, because they are reliably among the first to move. It's been that way since 2014, even through the hack debacle in 2016.

Just my observations. :)

History often repeats itself in bitcoin world, so this year it may reach a record high.Maybe in 2019 it would be possible for the bitcoin to stop falling. That's my view.

It will be similar as they are both markets under heavy bearish sentiment, and are just coming off a huge bull market in the previous year. However, the factors here are not the same and I doubt that the prices are going to move exactly the same.

2014 is the part of the reason why I think that bitcoin has some more room to fall before the prices bottomed out, as the prices in 2014 took around 19 months before finally bottoming out. Although not exact, I think that this bear market should last at the very least until Q4 of the year before prices start to move upwards.

Of course, circumstances are different, and I think that this bear market may be shortened due to circumstances such as the fact that there is no single major hack that the community needed to recover from (Mt Gox), and there is new interest from investors from mainstream institutions. All of these factors could lead to a quicker recovery.

This could happen the similiraties from previous year and the current year. Many predictions has set everytime it maybe true until it meet the value. Well, this might happen also the effects of drops of price this year will yielded by year 2019.

How it cant compare if it is totally same so far?    $6000 now is the same as it was in 2014 $400.   Quite big part of year was close or under $400.  

All this tells us that price cant go down much more. But also if you look at 2015 you can see that most of time price was under $400. So that means also that we will see long periods of sideways after bottom is found.

From historical evidence, bitcoin will be good in the long run. The bearish trend is not new, and there are many things to be sure. The introduction of institutional capital will undoubtedly shake the situation in these years.

everyone says "MAYBE" I hate this kind of prediction. because this is a money issue. and I invested with my personal money in large quantities.
What should I do?

The solution of bitcoin is expanding. This in itself will bring some positive changes in the next few years. I think bitcoin will come back very soon. This year will not be like 2014. Let's look forward to it.

I do not understand the kind of prediction you are actually expecting in the first place. An affirmative statement that bitcoin is just going to give the same pattern as 2014.

Wake up mate! No one can see the future and the fact that it is a market, anything is possible. Before investing, you should have known better how volatile the market is and what you should expect but that does not mean in the long term you are still not going to end up doing better with your investments. So, if you are going to be doing anything, it is to be patient, and if you can buy the DEEP dips, then do so!

Almost same pattern with everything, probably the same thing that was in 2014 year with price correction. From some graphic this look the same as before with price chart.
So main question could be is this gonna be the same or it will be little different then before.

This view is a lot in the recent forum, which shows that many people have started to panic, perhaps this time is a good opportunity to buy, I do not think it will go back to the 2014 position, that is unbelievable.

That means we will have to wait for a long time before it goes back up. I doubt we will have to wait for that long anymore. There are more people involved with crypto world compared to back in 2014, and some of those people are fund managers and big capital whales. They couldn't trade back than because the market was volatile and had low volume.

Now it has more volume than compared to 2014 and they can play with almost billions everyday but they are "whales" for us but not for in real life economics. So some people are spending hundreds of millions of dollars in order to make couple million dollars in profit.

I think we should be more patient, history may be repeated, but I don't think bitcoin will fall too much, and try not to buy altcoin at this stage.

I do not think that the price of bitcoins will go down on $1k dollars because it was just continuously increasing as the time goes by and there are still more investors more than sellers so we can expect for higher prices in the future.

it could happen because if seen since January until today bitcoin prices continue to decline and will likely go back up when near the end of the year.

I think this is not like the bitcoin price of 2014, it is not about this price about the legality of the crypto in every country in the world so have to wait until the legality of crypto in each country is finished, my opinion we wait until crypto back stable and conducive while looking for more information for add data, hopefully useful and successful for all of us

In my own opinion, bitcoins price will never go down to the same price when it was 2014 because there are more investors today more than before and popularity of cryptocurrency is keep on growing.

For those seeking short-term profits, the situation is not optimistic. Bitcoin is very difficult at this stage, but history tells us that bitcoin has always been a suitable thing to hold for a long time.

A temporary setback is no reason to frighten us. For 2018, we should maintain our confidence that the community of bitcoin is expanding.

I dont even think that we are going to see a huge dump during this year, it will continue like this and it wont keep going down, at least, no deeper than $6000 just like it has been during the last few days.
It is all stable now and it will continue like this

The chances are slim. After a long time of BTC trading, the average cost for most people now is $6,000. If you go back to 2014 prices, many people will go bankrupt.

The price of bitcoin is not going to reach 1000 dollars, that is simply not going to happen that was the value of bitcoin before segwit was activated and now that we have segwit in place the technology and the fees have improved so there is no logic behind such a low price so take the opportunity to buy coins right now or you are going to lose the opportunity of a lifetime.

What happened in 2014? Did it tip and then go sideway?
People keep talking about the psychology wave thing which suggests that history tend to repeat itself. I was amazed comparing the waves to the current market in 2018 as it fitted so well.
So if 2018 repeats 2014 i would not be suprised.

No more surprises like what happened in the past, everything can happen as it is from the past.

But I wouldn't be surprised either if the price goes crazy to the wave that we're not expecting in a positive manner. I'm bullish and wouldn't think of something that can give me worries and that will keep me thinking on how bitcoin will be ending this year.

yes. maybe this helps a bit, i just get a little angry and start to trouble to control my emotions.
I see many traders compare the movement of coins in the previous year. I think this works and is real.

I do not think that the market price of bitcoins will go down below $1k dollar just like what happened back in 2014 because if you are comparing the numbers of investors today \ then obviously most of the people today are preferring cryptocurrency more than fiat.

Who really cares if it does as that would be giving us the chance to still keep buying more of it anyway. One thing with this market is that nothing is certain but in the real sense, $1k is a whole lot to go and if we are even to see the worst case scenario, it would be around $2k - $3k. We still have a long way to go and we cannot be assuming for the market and when it is actually time, we will all get to know the way the market is going to end up playing out.

History may repeat itself and markets too but not exactly in the same manner. I am sure we are not going to have replica of 2014 in this year. This year going to be another unique year. Yes, my target for 2018 for bitcoin prices is new ATH which will be around $25k levels.

For me it seems rather evident at this point that Bitcoin moves in big waves creating a fractal like form. Big peaks of FOMO, followed by crashes, followed by higher floors of long periods of "it's dead", and this keeps repeating.

The graph would be like this:


https://cdn.pbrd.co/images/Hu24xys.jpg

There's no reason to not think this will stop being the case for as long as other monies decrease in purchasing power overtime and for as long as Bitcoin remains the best way to store and move wealth.

It's definitely not going to be like 2014, because the community is stronger now and I think there's going to be a big bull market in the second half of the year, and there will be a lot of big consortia joining.

Bitcoin had like 5 cycles so far and all repeated the previous ones so will this one.  Bitcoin should on reach bottom and then for like half year sideways and then slow growth until previous ATH and then BUM.

2014 was a big year, a lot of bad things happened. The markets were fluctuating way more than the usual. We are seeing the same now. All signs are proving that we are going through the similar phase that we had gone through back in 2014. But at the end, we might just have a good bullish finish, like 2017. The market rose by 10% today, we can expect a lot more in the coming months. Hopefully, someone won't mess up some shit, or some exchange doesn't get hacked.

Year 2014 was great year for Bitcoin a lot and a lot good things happened. There was one good news after another and after each good news price of Bitcoin decreased more.  Most of speculators that joined get rich fast scheme left and left space to those that were interested in technology and not just to get rich fast.  In 2017 many more bad things happened to Bitcoin then in 2014. Probably was same in 213, but I was not monitoring bitcoin that much back then.

Bear markets are always the same, and the possibility of seeing the same scenario playing out is there, which if we look at the charts look somehow alike anyway. Sure, a lot of people expect some movement back up in coming year, but how low this bear market is going to get is something we will just have to wait for since no one can know until it comes. A lot of things have changed though from 2014 till date, so everything is still based on speculations.
Unlike 2014, we are most probably going to have bitcoin etf in 2018 which is the most anticipated thing to happen in cryto world and it will take bitcoin to new ATH for sure.

Agree with last poster. Now we are seeing price being up despite bad news. This was unheard of back in 14!

yeah, because of the Mt Gox hack which took out a lot of people's money who were in the market and I think led a lot of newer people (like me) to leave the market for a few years, so the bear market was especially long. All signs point to this current bear cycle to be much shorter. Last one took 1.5 years to make the turn around and another 1.5 years to get back to around the ATH, and then a few months of ups and downs around the old ATH and then 7.5 months of boom time.

This year, if the recent boost off the bottom is indeed the start of the turn around then it only took 7 months to turn around instead of 1.5 years. I wouldn't be surprised to see $20k get hit next spring or summer and then the next boom to happen between mid-2019 and mid-2020.

Basically 2018 is looking like 2014 and 2015 combined. 2019 may very well be analogous to 2016 and first half of 2017.

It is not going to take as long to recover as it did in the past but also I do not think the recovery is going to be as fast as people think, many people are expecting the recovery to happen in the next months and that seems impossible to me especially since people are not willing to put more money in a market they see does not presents too many positive developments.