Bitcoin Forum

It seems that broad public opinions on Bitcoin are *primarily* divided into two categories:

(1) PERMA-BULLS: People who grok Bitcoin, and thus are perma-bulls (most of this forum)

(2) PERMA-BEARS: People who do not grok Bitcoin, and thus are perma-bears (Paul Krugman, Peter Schiff, etc.)

I would like to propose a third, new, much rarer category:

(3) OPTIMISTIC BEARS: People who grok Bitcoin and believe in its future, yet acknowledge that, at present, Bitcoin and especially alt-coins are still in the midst of a major speculative bubble that must deflate before the next growth phase can begin.

If you're in category 3, then please join me in this thread. Welcome to the home of the optimistic bears. I would like to hear from you.

I think most perma bulls fall under this category.
I think it could easily correct to 400. maybe lower. I also believe that it doesn't have to.
I am a hodling bull.

So basically you think You are two orders of magnitude smarter than the market, right? Do you have anything to base this on other than the same information that we all have access to?

I'm one of those that would fall into number 3
It's time for a real correction. There has only been sideways corrections since 2011 and the levels passed since breaking above $32 need to be revisited for confirmation.
Now, I'm not saying that we need to go down to $32, but there is a huge gap between well tested prices and current prices

Cool thanks yeah this is similar to my thinking. We've had no significant corrections since 2011 - it's overdue

People have completely forgotten how large that decline was, over 90%

I am a category 3 before I am a category 1 or 2.

Bitcoin's valuation has gotten way ahead of schedule and now the fight is on to keep the price relatively stabilised in relation to the organic market forces pressing down on it. This means that I think Bitcoin should go down quite a lot, but it doesn't necessarily mean that it will. Yes Bitcoin is overinflated, yes it should correct a lot yet but regardless of what happens, crypto currencies are here to stay. It may not be Bitcoin that emerges as King a decade or so down the line just as nobody had heard of Google or Facebook as the internet first exploded onto the mainstream, but I would suspect that Bitcoin has quite a long road in front of it yet, which means it's valuation has plenty time to grow and expand. The two major anti-US nations have taken an anti-Bitcoin stance, but most crucially, the US itself seems to be accepting it for now and is now moving to regulate it's use and bring it into the fold of establishment finance. For this reason, I am not 'optimistic' about Bitcoin. Yes, I think it has huge potential for yet more future speculative gains but I don't see how it is going to contribute to human freedom or prosperity in anyway whatsoever. Infact, quite the opposite. Bitcoin seems to me like a prototype for the 'Great Beast's' global digital currency. Every single transaction, on the ledger forever, and despite what many like to think, 100% trackable, forever. There is also an exponentially growing blockchain which will soon be unfeasible for home computer users to manage which will result in corporations springing up as Bitcoin intermediaries, serving as Bitcoin 'banks' and even central banks.

Bitcoin is not freedom. It is anti-freedom that has been welcomed in through the back door by a largely 'libertarian' leaning geek fraternity. I wouldn't be at all surprised if Satoshi Nakamoto was simply a code name for a team of NSA elite coders who have created the thing to begin with. Considering the undeveloped (hidden) global tracking potential that Bitcoin provides for, Bitcoin would be a genial initiative of an intelligence agency representing a political entity who is fast moving to have complete hegemony of control over global information traffic. Especially if that technology were 'marketed' most to subversive groups or those heavily involved in black market activity who aren't paying their dues to the 'Evil Empire'.

If I I could hit a Bitcoin kill switch, I would press down hard on that motherfucker, just as soon as I had moved my funds out of Bitstamp of course. Since I don't have access to such a switch, if Bitcoin is going to happen it is going to happen and if I can make a tidy profit on it then I want to make a tidy profit on it.

Not only completely forgotten, but there are many here who only know a rising Bitcoin price. They feel invincible and completely believe that Bitcoin can't have a bear market.

um, no we haven't. Check the wall observer thread and you will discover I was talking about that just yesterday. This is not 2011. We have a massive infrastructure no that we didn't have then. And It was a huge over correction. Don't think people like me are just going to hodl this time. Fuck no, we're buying more, and at higher prices than the one's you are waiting for. Do you have any idea how many of you assholes are waiting around for cheap coins? Too many to let it happen. Hell, I'm gonna start buying at $780 and front run your asses, me and a few whale friends. You're dreaming if you think it's ever go below $400, even with disasters like a pan EU ban or Mt Gox going under.

There are literally BILLIONS on the sidelines. Sooner or later, a critical mass of people are gonna get sick of this sideways movement and say "fuck it, I'm buying now." Happened twice already.

I would categorize myself as a realistic bull.  The December decline was About 63%, which can be considered a pretty strong decline.  Declines like the 94% move in 2011 are rare, especially only a few years apart, but I will concede that bitcoin moves fast.  Also, the major declines have been less drastic and shorter in terms of time between each top:  94% in 2011, 80% in April 2013, and 63% in December 2013.  It seems to me that the bull may experience a blowoff top sometime this year followed by a sizeable decline, possibly rivaling that of 2011, but maybe ending at levels near or higher than now.

All said, I have lightened up my longer term position.  We shall see what the market decides.

Also, some of the new cryptoassets such as bitshares, ethereum, open transactions, ect which attempt to bring further evolution to the decentralized financial landscape are interesting and worth a look.

Just my 2 satoshis.

and how many of us assholes are going to want to jump into Bitcoin if it were to crash through support after support? Back in early December I would have bitten someone's hands of had they offered me $800 BTC. But now that I can buy as many $800 as I liked, I am not interested.

Bitcoins are vapour and their value is only what people imagine it to be, and perhaps the mechanisms that define our imagination of Bitcoin's value have been wildly overstretched. In fact, I fkn know for sure that they have. The question is to what extent can those 'whales' whose interests it is to enforce a period of stability in Bitcoin in its presently wildly overstretched state, succeed in the face of the organic and perhaps some not so organic forces that want to push Bitcoin back down?

The arrogance of billyjoeallen really puts all other perma bulls to shame.

The price is not in line with the fundemenals.... yeah it's over stretched.
does that mean then that the price must align with fundamentals? not for many years it doesnt.
The wise speculators are not gonna sell at this point, $800 is just too cheap and they know it. Nobody has to force it....
They aren't gonna scalp either, cos they will likely not get their coins back.
A lot of pressure has already been released when it went down to 500....
Im gonna get ready to buy if a little slide comes, but I'm not expecting it.

As per rpetelia's 900 people own half of all Bitcoins study, with just 49 owning 30%, this market is being driven by a relative handful of players. It should be obvious by now to most rational minded persons, that there is a certain faction of these market makers (whales) who are deploying their resources and market expertise in order to hold Bitcoin up in a stable $800 dollar range. The towering Ask and Bid walls around either side of the spot price and the way the bot microtransactions move the spot away from the 'real' weight of the market action, makes this self evident. The present state of affairs is encouraging for current Bitcoin holders in that they see no need to panic sell, whilst it discourages fresh speculative money, both looking to go short and long. However, the market trends along like this and along comes some mother fucker and dumps 3000 BTC (I witnessed this on Stamp) within 5 minutes which precipitated a big sell-off that bottomed out at $726. Since then, we have recovered and are trending some $20 short of the low volume stagnation period which preceded the most recent correction, which for my money, was instigated by someone with a mass of Bitcoins, who sold them off in such a manner as to cause the price slide. Had he been more measured in his sell-off, he could have gotten just as much, if not more for his BTC by selling them into Bid wall at a slower rate. But nope, they were all dropped almost in one go, which has resulted in a significant bearish break-down from bearish descending triangle formation.

To be able to read this market accurately, you would need to know who the market makers are in and what their motives are and most importantly, who are the most powerful in terms of Bitcoin price moving capacity). I think that the markets should go down, but I quite agree, that this doesn't mean that it will.

Gold should be around 10K per ounce, but dominant market players ensure that it isn't. The USD should be worthless, but dominant market players ensure that it is the world's reserve currency and is highly likely to remain so.

I keep hearing this "the price is not in line with the fundamentals" argument. But this argument is completely unqualifiable.  It is pure unadulterated opinion.

However, the obvious supply vs. demand argument is continually ignored. There are only around 12 million coins (less with lost ones). 12 freaking million. That's it. And no one knows how many purchases are going on off-exchange.

Again, hidden data that NO ONE can factor in.

As long as there is global interest, the value of 12 million coins is going to be high.  Fundamentals or no fundamentals.

This post makes no sense to me. You identify a trend and then you predict that the future will break that trend. All because we "need" a heavy correction?

I am 100% an optimistic bear.

Not just because "I want cheap coins" (I do want cheap coins of course) but I am an optimistic bear mainly because of the Elliot wave theory, as it suggests that we should go down one more leg If my count it correct.

What doesn't make sense about a continuation of the bull market followed by a bear market?

To play devil's advocate, how does one then quantify global interest? To take an easy example, onecoin is dead -- it is worth nothing. But there is only one coin. With bitcoin, it's not so simple.

Enter: pure unadulterated opinion.

Is it new money pushing up the price? Or is it large holders who, after having sold over the past couple months, can now prop up the value of their holdings?

We're told that huge trades are happening off-exchange. Big things are in the pipeline. How do we know?

Who knows?

Lol. You act like there is no bitcoin Eco system. You challenge me but you never challenge those that call bitcoin vaporware. And you continually describe yourself as balanced.

Ignore all the bears calling doom and gloom and ask me where I see value in bitcoin?

Maybe you should ask yourself if you see value in bitcoin?

What? You give examples that point to less volatility in corrections and suggest that we could have a 2011esque decline coming. Makes no sense.

I don't act like there is no ecosystem -- how do you figure that? You made a statement. I just said, "but how?" I don't know about "balanced" -- I've said that perma bulls and perma bears are inherently closed minded. And yes, I consider myself neither.

So what is your definition of "doom and gloom?" Am I supposed to be arguing with fonzie now? What do I have to gain from that?

I did say devil's advocate. Just pointing out what cannot be known.

I've said I'm a long term bull, so persisting with the opinion that I am a perma bear -- I don't know what to say to that.

It makes perfect sense if you follow fractal analysis. The corrections will be shallower in terms of percentage decline and shorter in terms of time until the market reaches a tipping point.  Then the big crash will happen

It doesn't make sense to you because you are thinking in linear terms.  You think that because I give examples that point to less volatility, I should suggest that future corrections should be less volatile.  The opposite is true.  While I believe that the trend of less volatile corrections will continue for a few more rallies, I also believe it will reverse course into a long, drawn out bear market.

In all the months I have been on this forum, all the hundreds of posts I have read of yours, I have never, one time, seen you call out a bear, question a bear, play devils advocate with a bear, or otherwise challenge a bear.

Maybe you don't find them worth your time, but I just call it as I see it.

Based on fractals? Ok. Let's chat in 5 years and see how that worked out for you.

I think the arrogance is simply human emotion translated to forum posts. Nothing wrong with being excited about crypto.

The stance I take is that I'm invested in the technology, bulls and bears are simply definitions from the legacy banking system applied to a technology that has not existed before, though the labels are apt and create a lot of fun if nothing else.

If Bitcoin drops a few hundred dollars, I'll buy some more. If it goes up I'll watch my account grow. It's a win-win. Bears and bulls, join hands.

I disagree with the degree, but true to an extent. That doesn't really mean anything. I'm not a journalist here. I try to be reasonable and open minded in regards to my own position -- that's it.

And to be fair, since I arrived on this forum -- in April 2013 -- it has always been a place for bulls to congregate and insult bears. Say what you will about the forum turning bearish at times -- this has always been the case in my eyes. And it colors when I choose to post.

The ONLY time I have seen this forum become a place were Bulls gang up on Bears is during times of great upward momentum. Otherwise, its more openly bearish than bullish.   

I couldn't disagree more.

Well, if you were me you could disagree more, because I disagree more.

The ledger is indeed forever. Should you create a link between your identity and your coins, there are several ways to break that link. There are extremely easy ways to permanently sever that link.


What is your definition of soon? The block chain still fits in my RAM. It will "soon" be unfeasible for home computers purchased over a decade ago. If we only allow non-zero outputs, there is a limit to the size of the pruned block chain.


No one can take my coins without my permission and no one can prevent me from sending coins to whomever I want. If that isn't freedom, it's a huge step in the right direction.

But you are not one of those in category 3. You are not only 'at present' bearish. You've been bearish all the time while the price climbed up 1'000 Dollars.

Yeah, I'm not sure that you can quite call yourself an 'optimistic bear' if your next entry point is in three years time. Sounds a touch pessimistic to me ;)

I am an optimistic bear. In the way that I want the price to fall a little so I can buy more cheap coins, so I am a selfish bear-bull.

I think all of us are bulls here otherwise why would we spend so much time on this forum right ?

And in no way will the price remain at $800 while the user base grows. Hell there aren't even enough decent exchanges to supply the potential buyers. Right now it is a pain in the ass to buy even a single bitcoin.

Feel free to ask me anything.  :)

Right. The long-term count since the inception of the currency shows a completed impulse. That's a big deal.

I was much more Bearish when BTC was going up every day.   :D

Let's look at where we are really at:
Long-term trend: Clearly Up

Medium-term trend: Down/Correcting from the all-time-high

Short-term trend: Up from ~$730 (on btc-e)

• If we get a decent up move soon all 3 trends will be up, then I think ~$1,500 to almost $2,000 is likely before a large drop.

There was at least one correction of over 50% to 60++% since the all time high (i.e Gox went from ~$1200 all the way down into the $400's, and there was at least 2 other large drops)

Your wave count has been dead wrong.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=131065.msg1730809#msg1730809

You missed 90 pct of the up-move.

Exactly

I think people who look at past bubbles/crashes and say we need to have another drop simply based on previous patterns are extremely short sided and, frankly, pretty stupid.

Prior to the 2nd big run-up (~$200/$250 all the way to ~$1,200), I was convinced BTC would "obviously" fall back under $50, maybe much lower.
Now I would be happy with anything except this endless quiet time.

touché
A runaway Bull market doesn't stop at $1200 when greed (and a falling Dollar) can easily take it much higher.   :D 

Please consider this about what you are calling short-sighted and stupid:

• "Patterns" are a reflection of human emotion, and previous history is ignored by the "short-sighted and stupid."
• Fun Tip: When the patterns do not produce the result you expect (or the "obvious" wave count was wrong), you tend to get some of the largest moves.
• In other words, when the "smartest" traders are caught by surprise, then you tend to get the strongest showing of Greed and/or Fear....I hope we see those times again soon.   :)

I bought coins at 6 cents and again between $3 and $5. The explosion from 6 cents *drawfs* the move from $50. Those were the best buying opportunities: buy when there's blood on the street. I don't like to buy when everyone loves Bitcoin, and we didn't reach a negative enough sentiment during the decline that happened last April.

*Of course* a contrarian methodology is not perfect - obviously! You are not telling me any new information. And anyone who believes a perfect methodology exists obviously has no market experience. But contrarianism has worked well for me over the long haul, especially the killing I made during the 2008 crash when all my friends were losing their shirts, an event that we are likely to repeat soon. I may have been too early on stocks but given just how much more profitable stock market crashes are than equity bull markets, it won't matter. The magnitude of overbullishness and the length of time stocks have remained overbought should be commensurate with the size of the next bear market

I can't stand these hindsight biased comments, but I recognize the psychological tendency

Do you make any adjustments for the falling Dollar when calling stocks "too high?"
As the Dollar falls the "real value of stocks" (assuming they have any real value) is no longer "as high", only the numbers are inflated (i.e 2008 Dow 14,500 does not equal 2014 Dow 14,500)

When stocks are "overbought" (along with a much lower Dollar) the targeted low might be 11,000 (for example) instead of 6,500 or 7,000, or do you predict a real crash, like Dow = 1,500 by 2015?

Yes, a medium-term bear/correction which might surprise many of the Bears by turning and stampeding straight to $2,000* or even $3,500 or higher.   :D

Edit:
*Actually, markets rarely stampede straight to $2,000, instead there are many exciting "corrections" that do not last long enough to be called real corrections.

Can you make an honest assessment of whether buying and holding $100 of BTC @ 6 cents per coin would now be worth more or less than the gains you have made trading the BTC market?

Congrats. You're an early adopter. I hope you've never been going SHORT since you are calling the top!
I'm a late adopter. I bought at 29.-, and I'm very glad today that I did not listen to those wrong wave counts. Otherwise I would have sold at 50.- or 80.-, which would not be funny today.

The point of this thread is to debate the future price direction of bitcoin, not to devolve into personal attacks against me. For those who want debate im all ears, but i have now put several posters on ignore, thanks. And any more that want to post pointless personal attacks will be put on ignore too

This is entirely possible. I am basing my bearish opinion on the strong correlation between bitcoin and stocks since its inception, and the fact that stocks appear to have (finally) turned. If the correlation fails, or if stocks have not begun a bear market, then i will be wrong on this call.

And yes, I thought the 266 peak in April was a major top and i didn't see the next bull since we didn't get oversold enough. That surprised me and it could definitely happen again.

Not sure if I'm on ignore -- don't believe I made a personal attack -- but I am genuinely interested in your answer to my previous question.

But hey, no worries if not.

I believe BTC is grossly overvalued at the moment and a long term target is around $400 but the price will fall significantly below that before stabilizing there.

Nevertheless, I'm not at all sure that we've yet seen the peak of the bubble.

You can't debate somebody's predictions for the future without debating the track record of his predictions in the past. This is not a pointless attack of the person. It is questioning the performance of the methods of somebody.

 :D

Bitcoin plunges as major exchange halts withdrawals

http://money.cnn.com/2014/02/07/investing/bitcoin-withdrawal-halt/

Hit $302 on gox! Man, I love crashes. Now we just need the freaking U.S. markets to start playing catch-up and collapse already

Just broke $266, which was the high of wave 3. This is significant for psychological reasons

And yet, in my estimation, and the coming mean-reversion bounces notwithstanding, the bear market in Bitcoin is just getting started

It would be significant if MtGox weren't almost completely decoupled from the wider market.

Indeed. MtGox is not representative of BTC prices anymore, even moreso than when they had their +20% premium on the upside.

Who actually lost wealth on mtgox's BTC/USD price going down except for MtGox users? Coinbase, Bitpay etc. do not use MtGox prices, apart from other exchanges.

Yeah but BTC-e broke it days ago.

Also Gox went to near-zero in the past.

Today is a reflection of Gox the company - everyone knows that (hopefully).

In a sense we are watching a company going bankrupt minute by minute; under normal circumstances not many people could watch such a situation unfold in such painful detail. But this is being broadcast live to the world!

This is really interesting to watch.  A few days ago I was somewhat optimistic about MtGox's chances of recovering and re-syncing, more or less, with the broader markets, but I'm much less optimistic about that now.  I'm inclined to think we really are watching the death of an exchange.  Nearly every major bitcoin price aggregator has abandoned MtGox and all the major non-exchange liquidity pools haven't used MtGox prices to negotiate buys and sells for many months (SecondMarket, for example).

I just hope, in a last flash of decency, Mark Karpeles takes the exchange offline voluntarily while attempting to sort out the mess. Gox needs a break!

And by "takes the exchange offline" we should mean "closes shop".  For MtGox, I just don't see how they recover from this.  This is an especially bad time to have another Gox-up, since in the US a lot of money from VCs and other large profitable firms is now moving to create "regulated" and professionally managed exchanges.  At this point, it's just really difficult to imagine any noteworthy portion of market participants sticking with MtGox, when much better and more trustworthy alternatives already exist and even more trustworthy exchanges are on the horizon.  The good guy thing for Gox to do at this point is stop the exchange, give people back as much money as they can, and close shop.  Bye, bye, Gox.

Please can this happen next week!

Anyone who really believes that markets can only ever go up or down regardless of what is being traded is a moron, even the dollar and the global markets occasionally go up despite the fact we all know it's all being devalued like crazy, so assuming Bitcoin is going to always go up because it's the opposite of the dollar is foolish. I'm definitely bullish on Bitcoin long term but it's never going to be a true currency without having to face some real difficulties otherwise people can't test how the code works and fix any problems that occur.

Yes of course.

But I propose that today we are watching a company in trouble, and not the price of Bitcoin. They really are two completely separate things now.

Yes, problem is people out there can't seem to tell the difference >_< I really hope the first thing that people do with Bitcoin when they hear about it is research it rather than listen to the b.s. run by television.

True. In fact, the wider the spread between the two, the healthier BTC appears.

I'm pretty sure MtGox going bust would be all over the media, as many still seem them as 'the' exchange for bitcoin.
This would create panic, and panic is what drives the price lower..

Your definitions are completely wrong. That isnt even close to what the terms "bear" and "bull" mean, and the term "optimistic bear" is a meaningless oxymoron.


I guess we need to review this again.

Definition of 'Bear'

An investor who believes that a particular security or market is headed downward. Bears attempt to profit from a decline in prices. Bears are generally pessimistic about the state of a given market.
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bear.asp



Definition of 'Bull'

An investor who thinks the market, a specific security or an industry will rise. Investors who takes a bull approach will purchase securities under the assumption that they can be sold later at a higher price.

A "bear" is considered to be the opposite of a bull. Bear investors believe that the value of a specific security or an industry is likely to decline in the future.
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bull.asp



Why do people on this forum find that hard to grasp?  If you currently think the market is going to decline, your a bear, if you currently think it will go up, you are a bull.  Every investor will react to the market and alternate between bullish or bearish.  "Bull" and "bear" have nothing to do with your individual market philosophy, it is simply a reflection of where you currently think the price is going.


tl:dr There is no such thing as "permabear" or "permabull" or "optimistic bear"...those are a basterdization of terms by people who dont understand basic investment terms.

Wow evolve I had no idea that bulls think prices are going up, and bears think they're going down. Thanks for letting me know

That said, I clarified the OP slightly, because you are caught up in terms and obviously don't understand my partitioning and therefore the point I'm making

I did some blockchain math today and estimated the fundamental value at 640USD, for January.  (Using less than a full month of data is pretty meaningless.)

I suspect that means 3 things:

1) price will tend down short term, as lack of speculative premium indicates very low sentiment, so capitulation should be immanent,

2) economy growth is still very much on the exponential track, so there should be an upward price shock again,

3) and in this speculative momentum-chasing community that should mean another 2x or more overshoot spike, when it happens.

On plan so far.