Are there any other Optimistic Bears?

[BrightAnarchist]

It seems that broad public opinions on Bitcoin are *primarily* divided into two categories:

(1) PERMA-BULLS: People who grok Bitcoin, and thus are perma-bulls (most of this forum)

(2) PERMA-BEARS: People who do not grok Bitcoin, and thus are perma-bears (Paul Krugman, Peter Schiff, etc.)

I would like to propose a third, new, much rarer category:

(3) OPTIMISTIC BEARS: People who grok Bitcoin and believe in its future, yet acknowledge that, at present, Bitcoin and especially alt-coins are still in the midst of a major speculative bubble that must deflate before the next growth phase can begin.

If you're in category 3, then please join me in this thread. Welcome to the home of the optimistic bears. I would like to hear from you.

[chessnut]

I think most perma bulls fall under this category.
I think it could easily correct to 400. maybe lower. I also believe that it doesn't have to.
I am a hodling bull.

[billyjoeallen]

It seems that opinions on Bitcoin are primarily divided into two categories:

(1) BULLS: People who grok Bitcoin, and thus are perma-bulls

(2) BEARS: People who do not grok Bitcoin, and thus are perma-bears

I would like to propose a third, new, much rarer category:

(3) OPTIMISTIC BEARS: People who grok Bitcoin and believe in its future, yet acknowledge that, at present, Bitcoin and especially alt-coins are still in the midst of a major speculative bubble that must deflate before the next growth phase can begin.

If you're in category 3, then please join me in this thread. Welcome to the home of the optimistic bears. I would like to hear from you.

So basically you think You are two orders of magnitude smarter than the market, right? Do you have anything to base this on other than the same information that we all have access to?

[RyNinDaCleM]

I'm one of those that would fall into number 3
It's time for a real correction. There has only been sideways corrections since 2011 and the levels passed since breaking above $32 need to be revisited for confirmation.
Now, I'm not saying that we need to go down to $32, but there is a huge gap between well tested prices and current prices

[BrightAnarchist]

I'm one of those that would fall into number 3
It's time for a real correction. There has only been sideways corrections since 2011 and the levels passed since breaking above $32 need to be revisited for confirmation.
Now, I'm not saying that we need to go down to $32, but there is a huge gap between well tested prices and current prices

Cool thanks yeah this is similar to my thinking. We've had no significant corrections since 2011 - it's overdue

People have completely forgotten how large that decline was, over 90%

[MatTheCat]

It seems that opinions on Bitcoin are primarily divided into two categories:

(1) BULLS: People who grok Bitcoin, and thus are perma-bulls

(2) BEARS: People who do not grok Bitcoin, and thus are perma-bears

I would like to propose a third, new, much rarer category:

(3) OPTIMISTIC BEARS: People who grok Bitcoin and believe in its future, yet acknowledge that, at present, Bitcoin and especially alt-coins are still in the midst of a major speculative bubble that must deflate before the next growth phase can begin.

If you're in category 3, then please join me in this thread. Welcome to the home of the optimistic bears. I would like to hear from you.

I am a category 3 before I am a category 1 or 2.

Bitcoin's valuation has gotten way ahead of schedule and now the fight is on to keep the price relatively stabilised in relation to the organic market forces pressing down on it. This means that I think Bitcoin should go down quite a lot, but it doesn't necessarily mean that it will. Yes Bitcoin is overinflated, yes it should correct a lot yet but regardless of what happens, crypto currencies are here to stay. It may not be Bitcoin that emerges as King a decade or so down the line just as nobody had heard of Google or Facebook as the internet first exploded onto the mainstream, but I would suspect that Bitcoin has quite a long road in front of it yet, which means it's valuation has plenty time to grow and expand. The two major anti-US nations have taken an anti-Bitcoin stance, but most crucially, the US itself seems to be accepting it for now and is now moving to regulate it's use and bring it into the fold of establishment finance. For this reason, I am not 'optimistic' about Bitcoin. Yes, I think it has huge potential for yet more future speculative gains but I don't see how it is going to contribute to human freedom or prosperity in anyway whatsoever. Infact, quite the opposite. Bitcoin seems to me like a prototype for the 'Great Beast's' global digital currency. Every single transaction, on the ledger forever, and despite what many like to think, 100% trackable, forever. There is also an exponentially growing blockchain which will soon be unfeasible for home computer users to manage which will result in corporations springing up as Bitcoin intermediaries, serving as Bitcoin 'banks' and even central banks.

Bitcoin is not freedom. It is anti-freedom that has been welcomed in through the back door by a largely 'libertarian' leaning geek fraternity. I wouldn't be at all surprised if Satoshi Nakamoto was simply a code name for a team of NSA elite coders who have created the thing to begin with. Considering the undeveloped (hidden) global tracking potential that Bitcoin provides for, Bitcoin would be a genial initiative of an intelligence agency representing a political entity who is fast moving to have complete hegemony of control over global information traffic. Especially if that technology were 'marketed' most to subversive groups or those heavily involved in black market activity who aren't paying their dues to the 'Evil Empire'.

If I I could hit a Bitcoin kill switch, I would press down hard on that motherfucker, just as soon as I had moved my funds out of Bitstamp of course. Since I don't have access to such a switch, if Bitcoin is going to happen it is going to happen and if I can make a tidy profit on it then I want to make a tidy profit on it.

[RyNinDaCleM]

I'm one of those that would fall into number 3
It's time for a real correction. There has only been sideways corrections since 2011 and the levels passed since breaking above $32 need to be revisited for confirmation.
Now, I'm not saying that we need to go down to $32, but there is a huge gap between well tested prices and current prices

Cool thanks yeah this is similar to my thinking. We've had no significant corrections since 2011 - it's overdue

People have completely forgotten how large that decline was, over 90%

Not only completely forgotten, but there are many here who only know a rising Bitcoin price. They feel invincible and completely believe that Bitcoin can't have a bear market.

[billyjoeallen]

I'm one of those that would fall into number 3
It's time for a real correction. There has only been sideways corrections since 2011 and the levels passed since breaking above $32 need to be revisited for confirmation.
Now, I'm not saying that we need to go down to $32, but there is a huge gap between well tested prices and current prices

Cool thanks yeah this is similar to my thinking. We've had no significant corrections since 2011 - it's overdue

People have completely forgotten how large that decline was, over 90%

um, no we haven't. Check the wall observer thread and you will discover I was talking about that just yesterday. This is not 2011. We have a massive infrastructure no that we didn't have then. And It was a huge over correction. Don't think people like me are just going to hodl this time. Fuck no, we're buying more, and at higher prices than the one's you are waiting for. Do you have any idea how many of you assholes are waiting around for cheap coins? Too many to let it happen. Hell, I'm gonna start buying at $780 and front run your asses, me and a few whale friends. You're dreaming if you think it's ever go below $400, even with disasters like a pan EU ban or Mt Gox going under.

There are literally BILLIONS on the sidelines. Sooner or later, a critical mass of people are gonna get sick of this sideways movement and say "fuck it, I'm buying now." Happened twice already.

[HeliKopterBen]

I would categorize myself as a realistic bull.  The December decline was About 63%, which can be considered a pretty strong decline.  Declines like the 94% move in 2011 are rare, especially only a few years apart, but I will concede that bitcoin moves fast.  Also, the major declines have been less drastic and shorter in terms of time between each top:  94% in 2011, 80% in April 2013, and 63% in December 2013.  It seems to me that the bull may experience a blowoff top sometime this year followed by a sizeable decline, possibly rivaling that of 2011, but maybe ending at levels near or higher than now.

All said, I have lightened up my longer term position.  We shall see what the market decides.

Also, some of the new cryptoassets such as bitshares, ethereum, open transactions, ect which attempt to bring further evolution to the decentralized financial landscape are interesting and worth a look.

Just my 2 satoshis.

[MatTheCat]

um, no we haven't. Check the wall observer thread and you will discover I was talking about that just yesterday. This is not 2011. We have a massive infrastructure no that we didn't have then. And It was a huge over correction. Don't think people like me are just going to hodl this time. Fuck no, we're buying more, and at higher prices than the one's you are waiting for. Do you have any idea how many of you assholes are waiting around for cheap coins? Too many to let it happen. Hell, I'm gonna start buying at $780 and front run your asses, me and a few whale friends. You're dreaming if you think it's ever go below $400, even with disasters like a pan EU ban or Mt Gox going under.

There are literally BILLIONS on the sidelines. Sooner or later, a critical mass of people are gonna get sick of this sideways movement and say "fuck it, I'm buying now." Happened twice already.

and how many of us assholes are going to want to jump into Bitcoin if it were to crash through support after support? Back in early December I would have bitten someone's hands of had they offered me $800 BTC. But now that I can buy as many $800 as I liked, I am not interested.

Bitcoins are vapour and their value is only what people imagine it to be, and perhaps the mechanisms that define our imagination of Bitcoin's value have been wildly overstretched. In fact, I fkn know for sure that they have. The question is to what extent can those 'whales' whose interests it is to enforce a period of stability in Bitcoin in its presently wildly overstretched state, succeed in the face of the organic and perhaps some not so organic forces that want to push Bitcoin back down?

[MAbtc]

The arrogance of billyjoeallen really puts all other perma bulls to shame.

[chessnut]

um, no we haven't. Check the wall observer thread and you will discover I was talking about that just yesterday. This is not 2011. We have a massive infrastructure no that we didn't have then. And It was a huge over correction. Don't think people like me are just going to hodl this time. Fuck no, we're buying more, and at higher prices than the one's you are waiting for. Do you have any idea how many of you assholes are waiting around for cheap coins? Too many to let it happen. Hell, I'm gonna start buying at $780 and front run your asses, me and a few whale friends. You're dreaming if you think it's ever go below $400, even with disasters like a pan EU ban or Mt Gox going under.

There are literally BILLIONS on the sidelines. Sooner or later, a critical mass of people are gonna get sick of this sideways movement and say "fuck it, I'm buying now." Happened twice already.

and how many of us assholes are going to want to jump into Bitcoin if it were to crash through support after support? Back in early December I would have bitten someone's hands of had they offered me $800 BTC. But now that I can buy as many $800 as I liked, I am not interested.

Bitcoins are vapour and their value is only what people imagine it to be, and perhaps the mechanisms that define our imagination of Bitcoin's value have been wildly overstretched. In fact, I fkn know for sure that they have. The question is to what extent can those 'whales' whose interests it is to enforce a period of stability in Bitcoin in its presently wildly overstretched state, succeed in the face of the organic and perhaps some not so organic forces that want to push Bitcoin back down?

The price is not in line with the fundemenals.... yeah it's over stretched.
does that mean then that the price must align with fundamentals? not for many years it doesnt.
The wise speculators are not gonna sell at this point, $800 is just too cheap and they know it. Nobody has to force it....
They aren't gonna scalp either, cos they will likely not get their coins back.
A lot of pressure has already been released when it went down to 500....
Im gonna get ready to buy if a little slide comes, but I'm not expecting it.

[MatTheCat]

The price is not in line with the fundemenals.... yeah it's over stretched.
does that mean then that the price must align with fundamentals? not for many years it doesnt.
The wise speculators are not gonna sell at this point, $800 is just too cheap and they know it. Nobody has to force it....
They aren't gonna scalp either, cos they will likely not get their coins back.
A lot of pressure has already been released when it went down to 500....
Im gonna get ready to buy if a little slide comes, but I'm not expecting it.

As per rpetelia's 900 people own half of all Bitcoins study, with just 49 owning 30%, this market is being driven by a relative handful of players. It should be obvious by now to most rational minded persons, that there is a certain faction of these market makers (whales) who are deploying their resources and market expertise in order to hold Bitcoin up in a stable $800 dollar range. The towering Ask and Bid walls around either side of the spot price and the way the bot microtransactions move the spot away from the 'real' weight of the market action, makes this self evident. The present state of affairs is encouraging for current Bitcoin holders in that they see no need to panic sell, whilst it discourages fresh speculative money, both looking to go short and long. However, the market trends along like this and along comes some mother fucker and dumps 3000 BTC (I witnessed this on Stamp) within 5 minutes which precipitated a big sell-off that bottomed out at $726. Since then, we have recovered and are trending some $20 short of the low volume stagnation period which preceded the most recent correction, which for my money, was instigated by someone with a mass of Bitcoins, who sold them off in such a manner as to cause the price slide. Had he been more measured in his sell-off, he could have gotten just as much, if not more for his BTC by selling them into Bid wall at a slower rate. But nope, they were all dropped almost in one go, which has resulted in a significant bearish break-down from bearish descending triangle formation.

To be able to read this market accurately, you would need to know who the market makers are in and what their motives are and most importantly, who are the most powerful in terms of Bitcoin price moving capacity). I think that the markets should go down, but I quite agree, that this doesn't mean that it will.

Gold should be around 10K per ounce, but dominant market players ensure that it isn't. The USD should be worthless, but dominant market players ensure that it is the world's reserve currency and is highly likely to remain so.

[windjc]

um, no we haven't. Check the wall observer thread and you will discover I was talking about that just yesterday. This is not 2011. We have a massive infrastructure no that we didn't have then. And It was a huge over correction. Don't think people like me are just going to hodl this time. Fuck no, we're buying more, and at higher prices than the one's you are waiting for. Do you have any idea how many of you assholes are waiting around for cheap coins? Too many to let it happen. Hell, I'm gonna start buying at $780 and front run your asses, me and a few whale friends. You're dreaming if you think it's ever go below $400, even with disasters like a pan EU ban or Mt Gox going under.

There are literally BILLIONS on the sidelines. Sooner or later, a critical mass of people are gonna get sick of this sideways movement and say "fuck it, I'm buying now." Happened twice already.

and how many of us assholes are going to want to jump into Bitcoin if it were to crash through support after support? Back in early December I would have bitten someone's hands of had they offered me $800 BTC. But now that I can buy as many $800 as I liked, I am not interested.

Bitcoins are vapour and their value is only what people imagine it to be, and perhaps the mechanisms that define our imagination of Bitcoin's value have been wildly overstretched. In fact, I fkn know for sure that they have. The question is to what extent can those 'whales' whose interests it is to enforce a period of stability in Bitcoin in its presently wildly overstretched state, succeed in the face of the organic and perhaps some not so organic forces that want to push Bitcoin back down?

The price is not in line with the fundemenals.... yeah it's over stretched.
does that mean then that the price must align with fundamentals? not for many years it doesnt.
The wise speculators are not gonna sell at this point, $800 is just too cheap and they know it. Nobody has to force it....
They aren't gonna scalp either, cos they will likely not get their coins back.
A lot of pressure has already been released when it went down to 500....
Im gonna get ready to buy if a little slide comes, but I'm not expecting it.

I keep hearing this "the price is not in line with the fundamentals" argument. But this argument is completely unqualifiable.  It is pure unadulterated opinion.

However, the obvious supply vs. demand argument is continually ignored. There are only around 12 million coins (less with lost ones). 12 freaking million. That's it. And no one knows how many purchases are going on off-exchange.

Again, hidden data that NO ONE can factor in.

As long as there is global interest, the value of 12 million coins is going to be high.  Fundamentals or no fundamentals.

[windjc]

I would categorize myself as a realistic bull.  The December decline was About 63%, which can be considered a pretty strong decline.  Declines like the 94% move in 2011 are rare, especially only a few years apart, but I will concede that bitcoin moves fast.  Also, the major declines have been less drastic and shorter in terms of time between each top:  94% in 2011, 80% in April 2013, and 63% in December 2013.  It seems to me that the bull may experience a blowoff top sometime this year followed by a sizeable decline, possibly rivaling that of 2011, but maybe ending at levels near or higher than now.

All said, I have lightened up my longer term position.  We shall see what the market decides.

Also, some of the new cryptoassets such as bitshares, ethereum, open transactions, ect which attempt to bring further evolution to the decentralized financial landscape are interesting and worth a look.

Just my 2 satoshis.

This post makes no sense to me. You identify a trend and then you predict that the future will break that trend. All because we "need" a heavy correction?

[Nathanael_]

I am 100% an optimistic bear.

Not just because "I want cheap coins" (I do want cheap coins of course) but I am an optimistic bear mainly because of the Elliot wave theory, as it suggests that we should go down one more leg If my count it correct.

[HeliKopterBen]

I would categorize myself as a realistic bull.  The December decline was About 63%, which can be considered a pretty strong decline.  Declines like the 94% move in 2011 are rare, especially only a few years apart, but I will concede that bitcoin moves fast.  Also, the major declines have been less drastic and shorter in terms of time between each top:  94% in 2011, 80% in April 2013, and 63% in December 2013.  It seems to me that the bull may experience a blowoff top sometime this year followed by a sizeable decline, possibly rivaling that of 2011, but maybe ending at levels near or higher than now.

All said, I have lightened up my longer term position.  We shall see what the market decides.

Also, some of the new cryptoassets such as bitshares, ethereum, open transactions, ect which attempt to bring further evolution to the decentralized financial landscape are interesting and worth a look.

Just my 2 satoshis.

This post makes no sense to me. You identify a trend and then you predict that the future will break that trend. All because we "need" a heavy correction?

What doesn't make sense about a continuation of the bull market followed by a bear market?

[MAbtc]

As long as there is global interest, the value of 12 million coins is going to be high.  Fundamentals or no fundamentals.

To play devil's advocate, how does one then quantify global interest? To take an easy example, onecoin is dead -- it is worth nothing. But there is only one coin. With bitcoin, it's not so simple.

Enter: pure unadulterated opinion.

Is it new money pushing up the price? Or is it large holders who, after having sold over the past couple months, can now prop up the value of their holdings?

We're told that huge trades are happening off-exchange. Big things are in the pipeline. How do we know?

Who knows?

[windjc]

As long as there is global interest, the value of 12 million coins is going to be high.  Fundamentals or no fundamentals.

To play devil's advocate, how does one then quantify global interest? To take an easy example, onecoin is dead -- it is worth nothing. But there is only one coin. With bitcoin, it's not so simple.

Enter: pure unadulterated opinion.

Is it new money pushing up the price? Or is it large holders who, after having sold over the past couple months, can now prop up the value of their holdings?

We're told that huge trades are happening off-exchange. Big things are in the pipeline. How do we know?

Who knows?

Lol. You act like there is no bitcoin Eco system. You challenge me but you never challenge those that call bitcoin vaporware. And you continually describe yourself as balanced.

Ignore all the bears calling doom and gloom and ask me where I see value in bitcoin?

Maybe you should ask yourself if you see value in bitcoin?

[windjc]

I would categorize myself as a realistic bull.  The December decline was About 63%, which can be considered a pretty strong decline.  Declines like the 94% move in 2011 are rare, especially only a few years apart, but I will concede that bitcoin moves fast.  Also, the major declines have been less drastic and shorter in terms of time between each top:  94% in 2011, 80% in April 2013, and 63% in December 2013.  It seems to me that the bull may experience a blowoff top sometime this year followed by a sizeable decline, possibly rivaling that of 2011, but maybe ending at levels near or higher than now.

All said, I have lightened up my longer term position.  We shall see what the market decides.

Also, some of the new cryptoassets such as bitshares, ethereum, open transactions, ect which attempt to bring further evolution to the decentralized financial landscape are interesting and worth a look.

Just my 2 satoshis.

This post makes no sense to me. You identify a trend and then you predict that the future will break that trend. All because we "need" a heavy correction?

What doesn't make sense about a continuation of the bull market followed by a bear market?

What? You give examples that point to less volatility in corrections and suggest that we could have a 2011esque decline coming. Makes no sense.