Bitcoin Forum

Well, actually not so much doom and gloom but rather a "scientific" theory for a constructive and meaningful discussion. I don't claim that the proposed theory is necessarily true but with prices going lower and lower it looks like speculation is gradually subsiding and this is what makes ground for this theory. The current decline and depreciation of cryptocurrencies doesn't look like a short-term trend, which will be over in a couple of months. This is the doom and gloom part. The scientific part is that it is a natural course of events given that we are close to what can be called informational saturation. In simple language, everyone already knows about crypto in general and bitcoin specifically. If they wanted to invest in crypto, they already did so. If they didn't, they wouldn't, as simple as it gets. So what does it mean for us all? Essentially, that there is little hope for bitcoin to make new all-time highs any time soon or even just local highs beyond minor rebounds. Over the long term, we will be moving closer to the use value of bitcoin and other coins (if there's any in them in the first place), with the price closer to what it would be if there were no speculation at all.

Please prove me wrong but don't call me vile names at that.

I  believe there are still many many people who don't fully understand or appreciate bitcoin but would be willing and able to invest if the prices moved favourably. I can't prove this of course but it's just a feeling that I have.

Your statements are obvious. Like any market it's settling down. Obviously 20K was the peak, and irrationally speculative. The only question is what is it's true value? How low? $1? $0.01?

Anyone who disagreed that we passed the peak would be delusional and infantile - but there are a lot of those still around here

Yeah, right now the reasons stated may look obvious and they will likely be even more obvious when bitcoin hits lower thousands, but I remember people here being as obviously in denial when they claimed that bitcoin cannot drop a few times after it reached 20k in December. The forum consensus had it that with higher prices there would be less volatility. But as you said, it was only irrational speculation bundled with delusion and infantilism.


With that agreed, I can't but still point out the possibility of the long-term, "organic" growth of a few cryptocurrencies (though not necessarily bitcoin) due to expansion in real use. After all, the advantages that decentralized coins offer are not going away, and if more people actually use these coins for purposes other than "irrational speculation", it pretty much means real, solid growth.

I don't really think so. The whole world doesnt know about crypto. My next door neighbor when i was 15 now relocated to a different state doesn't know much about crypto. People have heard about bitcoin, yes. But the risk of putting money in is so big of a risk and not worthy enough. Seeing the decline from 17,000 now to 6,000 is not much of a good risk to take for many.

Infants don't know and elders likely don't know either. But you actually confirm my words. People heard about crypto, and if they got interested, they probably had already tried it, as a quick-buck opportunity in the very least. Whether they succeeded at that or made losses at the end of the day is another question. Still, I agree that insane volatility is not what common people are looking for, though it is not so much volatility itself as the dramatic decline as of recent on its own, taken separately. But that's what I'm talking about in the OP. We are going to see speculation winding down, along with prices, sorry. And that should give more room and leeway for real value to expand into, metaphorically speaking, at least in relative terms, and ultimately support solid, long-term growth.

In other words, there's no cloud without a silver lining.

I am dizzy with all the theories shared by people in this forum about bitcoin speculation in the future, although in the near future this speculation has begun to subside but the right is actually making people more intelligent and do the speculation according to their own thoughts. If we are sure and full calculation then we will be able to get a quick profit by utilizing the fluctuations that occur despite the market trend is in bearish condition.

I'd rather have that than artificial pumps and dumps. There are a ton of overvalued and undervalued coins simply because they all follow bitcoin. I agree that in the near future, the average joe wont be investing in bitcoin anymore, maybe ICO's but those are being heavily regulated. At the end of the day you don't need them for the market to grow, stocks and normal business only have private sales and IPO's and they still succeed.

And not a very good introduction for this market as well. That's why people will be wary and cautious if ever they're going to invest here. And that will also be the reason why i don't think there'll be another run like that any time soon

But your theory doesn’t consider the major part of the crypto currency and that’s the whale investors. Why do you think that if the saturation level for information has already been reached and why you think that people won’t invest into it? Most of the time whales could be the reason who is manipulating the rates for bitcoin (in theory) and thus it doesn’t matter if the new investors are coming along the way or not! Have you considered whether this could be just another dump because of panickness and new investors really want to come in but due to such volatility they are not able to make up the mind.

I think we are little fishes here. As example mine portfolio is 10BTC in total. I believe people who matters is ones who can buy 1000 BTC in one go and those people probably made a lot of money out of it already. There is no ex-crypto investor at this point. Once you in, you in, I guess.

Increasing the cost BTC in most cases is due to the manipulation of large holders of the cryptocurrency.
Therefore, after the decrease BTC should grow, that would make a profit. Usually this is 5-10%.

Who does not lose faith in BTC can make money if the purchase is at the right time.

This theory is really good and worth considering and to a large extent, its proven to be true and if everyone but its not as straight forward as it sounds because when it comes to human behavior, their attitude cannot be accurate predicted in the form of + or -.


This is an exaggerated conclusion because its not possible for everybody to know about bitcoin as you might be concluding based on your environment and the people that surrounds you. Over here, I know of educated people that have not heard about bitcoin and if you mention what is being done with blockchain and its potentials, it sound as if you are living in another world. Also, not everybody who wanted to invest had done so. A lot of people are still held back for several reasons. those who are risk averse, those who are scared of the legal ramifications and those who are holding back because of religious connotations and until their believes or fears have been voided, they still remain on the other sides.

Have you ever read the documentation about dom? DOMs are used to access HTML and XML documents, which are structured as a data structure tree, and are typically model independent of the operating system.

I highly doubt this.
Hearing the news and reading a 3 lines article about bitcoin on the phone can hardly mean knowing about bitcoin, and not all the population has done even that. I'll put the number of people that have actually bothered to research bitcoin and crypto for at least 5 minutes just a bit above 2-5% percent and that only in the western world.
If we talk about 3rd world countries probably we should start with 0... %.

What we have experienced was a quick boom and everybody talked about how much $ you can make which was a turn-off for a lot of people who were afraid of a scam, a ponzi scheme and so on.
Once we stop talking all day about prices and "investments" and more about the utility of the coin you will see a lot more usage and a lot more money entering the crypto world.

I  believe there are still many  people who don't clearly understand about bitcoin and its purpose, but would be able to invest in bitcoin. If the prices constantly moved favourably.So there is nothing to worry about it if will just pull out some of his bitcoin to invest another form of investment.

I completely agree that we should be selling Bitcoin's utility rather than its potential to help people make quick bucks. It has always been about that after all.

The problem I see right now though, is that Bitcoin's strengths are too niche to be able to attract a sizable part of the population. The average joe likely wouldn't care much about decentralization. Anonymity is cool, but in hindsight, it seems most people only really desire it if they have something to hide. Online payments can also be done with credit cards and debit cards, and they're mostly instant (and free) as far as customers are concerned. Efficient cross-border transfers is arguably its best feature at the moment, and while it's absolutely top-notch, few people require it enough to actually buy into the ecosystem.

I feel like crypto has barely scratched the surface as far as its potential goes. It'll probably be a while until utility can drive significant adoption by itself. I hope I'm proven wrong though lol.

Patience is needed you need to forgive and move on, from a gloom and doom view I predict a reality where people continue to remain bearish.
Others will see that not just Bitcoin most alts have collapsed and see an all around opportunity to finish up setting their positions for the next rally.
Let's have fun watching where it goes.

I'm actually pretty happy with all this. I was there from the get-go (old man). It's getting back to the roots, the technology, in short, it's becoming fun again!

Honestly, I don't think that the whale investors make up the major part of the cryptoverse. There are big holders, no doubt about that, but they are not investors. Anyway, everyone speaks about these investors but why are the prices falling down then? These people are not fools, they are going to be the fuel for market growth, speculative growth. Whoever had been investing in crypto before was doing that for profit. But speculation can't go on forever, right now it is steadily subsiding, along with prices. In my opinion, we are now entering a new stage, where real use will prevail over speculation. Obviously, prices won't be like they were in late 2017, but they will be real, even though that could mean 500-50-5 dollars per bitcoin (with most alts losing any value).

This is true in respect to a single individual or a small group of individuals with varying personal traits and characters. But if we take large communities (and cryptocommunity is no exception here, alas), it is all as straightforward as it sounds, and people become very predictable as a whole. There is even a separate science behind this phenomenon which studies human behavior en masse, so to speak.


Yes, it is an exaggeration. You could even call it a hyperbole but I think you get the point I'm trying to get across. There is not plenty of really fresh money in the market, for whatever reason. And given the current state of the market, this is not going to change in the coming months.

I think People have heard of bitcoin, but the risk of saving money is very risky and not quite feasible. Seeing the decline is not a lot of good risk to take for many people. I think the whole world does not know about crypto

There are many people in the world who do not pay taxes at all or underpaid. How do they keep their savings? All accounts are controlled by banks and governments. They can freeze the account at any time. Have access to your money from any country in the world and the ability to exchange bitcoins for any currency. Do you think these reasons are not enough to always be willing to buy cryptocurrencies?

Frankly, I don't quite understand your point here. More specifically, I don't disagree that the governments are controlling the lives of the law-abiding community by various means including money. So far so good. But I can't grasp why "these reasons are enough to always be willing to buy cryptocurrencies". What does buying cryptocurrency give you if you still have to sell it later for the same dollars as you bought it with to get out of it any use that wouldn't be speculation? Other than that, the underpaid people usually don't have money to save as they live paycheck-to-paycheck. And as they are underpaid, it is more like half-paycheck.

This is actually a very good analysis of the situation. I would merit it but I am barely a Junior Member with zero sMerits..
What's wrong in this analysis is that it is not true that "everybody knows about Bitcoin" and even less that "If they wanted to invest in crypto, they already did so" - for most of the people buying Bitcoin is still a too complex task to achieve because of the tech. I have personally met so many people who would have liked to invest in Bitcoin but they are technologically impaired and they have no idea how to do that.
There will be other waves of new people joining the party. We will have new ATH, even though this might take a while. But sooner or later, your analysis will be 100% correct.

that is wrong.

that is even more wrong.

why? it is simple, a lot of people have not even heard of bitcoin. they may have seen the name, saw some article online, on TV,... but they never even paid attention to it. it was something they passed by. and there are a lot more people who know about it, read the articles,... but they didn't invest in it because they were afraid of its future. for instance instead of reading what bitcoin is they read what Warren Buffet said about bitcoin so they decided not to get involved with bitcoin.

this will change in the future. the same people will start learning more about bitcoin and know how bullshit 99% of the articles about bitcoin that they read were. and the rest who haven't heard about bitcoin will know about it and that way the adoption increases.

even if we assume that no new person is going to adopt bitcoin (which is simply not true) the same investors are still investing more money in it so in a way price will rise even there were no new adoption!

there are no other coins. there are shitcoins and then there is bitcoin. the value of these shitcoins are never going to be even remotely close to bitcoin's because they are shitcoins!!! and you can never remove speculation, it will always exist as it exists in any other object out there from currencies (fiat) to goods.

Replying to all of you guys who are eagerly jumping at my statement about everybody having already heard of bitcoin and having invested in it if they had chosen so. Obviously, it was a hyperbole (pronounced haɪpɜːʳbəli), that is, a deliberate exaggeration for making things easier to understand and more clear to see. Of course, infants and newborns don't know about crypto and can't invest in it. But that's not about them. How many people are investing in anything, not just crypto? Most people are living paycheck-to-paycheck and many are living on debt at that. They simply can't invest in anything due to sheer lack of money. So they are out of consideration for pretty apparent reasons.

Now we are left with those who have money and are willing to invest it in some asset. And I speak of these people exclusively. Metaphorically speaking, it is not about demand, it is about effective demand, in this case it is about people who actually have financial means to invest in bitcoin and friends. Rest assured these people have definitely heard about crypto and already made up their mind whether to invest in it or not.

If the prices constantly moved favourably.So there is nothing to worry about it.Most of the time whales could be the reason who is manipulating the rates for bitcoin in theory and thus it doesn’t matter if the new investors are coming along the way.

Bitcoin is like a film trilogy, when the first movie is shown, people goes gaga over the movie and they cannot wait for the

next movie in the trilogy. When they show the next movie, some people heard of the movie and they have to see the first

movie to get the story, so there is a new injection of money into the trilogy. Bitcoin is only at it's 2cnd movie phase now and

people are already working on the mini series.  :P  So, when there is a new spike in the price, new people take notice and

we see more people buying Bitcoin again.  ::)

I am sure there are still many people who do not understand clearly about bitcoin and its purpose, but they invest in bitcoin because they follow trends and are tempted by the results without knowing the risks. If prices continue to move, there is nothing to worry about because it can attract new investors to invest in Bitcoin.

Well, by now this gloom will probably have evolved to pure terror when looking at the horrific state of the market. Sometimes I can't believe how much damn money I've lost, but I am still optimistic that one day the utility value of cryptocurrencies will be recognized for its incredible potential and we'll see a dramatic recovery. I can be that will take several years though.

But how many people actually understand clearly what bitcoin is about and what purpose it serves? Many have read the WP written by Satoshi, in part or fully. He says that he wants bitcoin to become a means of payment, and this is how it had been used for the first couple of years even if that use was limited and insignificant. But later it turned into a money-making machine but it doesn't look like it's got a lot closer to its destination point.

People are investing in bitcoin to make profits. Well, at least this is what they hope for, to earn money. But isn't investing about that thing exactly, making profits? In this manner, what does understanding or misunderstanding the true purpose of bitcoin change in the way things are in the cryptoverse?