A little bit of doom and gloom is due

[tee-rex]

Well, actually not so much doom and gloom but rather a "scientific" theory for a constructive and meaningful discussion. I don't claim that the proposed theory is necessarily true but with prices going lower and lower it looks like speculation is gradually subsiding and this is what makes ground for this theory. The current decline and depreciation of cryptocurrencies doesn't look like a short-term trend, which will be over in a couple of months. This is the doom and gloom part. The scientific part is that it is a natural course of events given that we are close to what can be called informational saturation. In simple language, everyone already knows about crypto in general and bitcoin specifically. If they wanted to invest in crypto, they already did so. If they didn't, they wouldn't, as simple as it gets. So what does it mean for us all? Essentially, that there is little hope for bitcoin to make new all-time highs any time soon or even just local highs beyond minor rebounds. Over the long term, we will be moving closer to the use value of bitcoin and other coins (if there's any in them in the first place), with the price closer to what it would be if there were no speculation at all.

Please prove me wrong but don't call me vile names at that.

[1714696996]

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[1714696996]

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[tdrinker]

I  believe there are still many many people who don't fully understand or appreciate bitcoin but would be willing and able to invest if the prices moved favourably. I can't prove this of course but it's just a feeling that I have.

[bdbabiak77]

Your statements are obvious. Like any market it's settling down. Obviously 20K was the peak, and irrationally speculative. The only question is what is it's true value? How low? $1? $0.01?

Anyone who disagreed that we passed the peak would be delusional and infantile - but there are a lot of those still around here

[tee-rex]

Your statements are obvious. Like any market it's settling down. Obviously 20K was the peak, and irrationally speculative. The only question is what is it's true value? How low? $1? $0.01?

Yeah, right now the reasons stated may look obvious and they will likely be even more obvious when bitcoin hits lower thousands, but I remember people here being as obviously in denial when they claimed that bitcoin cannot drop a few times after it reached 20k in December. The forum consensus had it that with higher prices there would be less volatility. But as you said, it was only irrational speculation bundled with delusion and infantilism.

Anyone who disagreed that we passed the peak would be delusional and infantile - but there are a lot of those still around here

With that agreed, I can't but still point out the possibility of the long-term, "organic" growth of a few cryptocurrencies (though not necessarily bitcoin) due to expansion in real use. After all, the advantages that decentralized coins offer are not going away, and if more people actually use these coins for purposes other than "irrational speculation", it pretty much means real, solid growth.

[keycellko]

I don't really think so. The whole world doesnt know about crypto. My next door neighbor when i was 15 now relocated to a different state doesn't know much about crypto. People have heard about bitcoin, yes. But the risk of putting money in is so big of a risk and not worthy enough. Seeing the decline from 17,000 now to 6,000 is not much of a good risk to take for many.

[tee-rex]

I don't really think so. The whole world doesnt know about crypto. My next door neighbor when i was 15 now relocated to a different state doesn't know much about crypto. People have heard about bitcoin, yes. But the risk of putting money in is so big of a risk and not worthy enough. Seeing the decline from 17,000 now to 6,000 is not much of a good risk to take for many.

Infants don't know and elders likely don't know either. But you actually confirm my words. People heard about crypto, and if they got interested, they probably had already tried it, as a quick-buck opportunity in the very least. Whether they succeeded at that or made losses at the end of the day is another question. Still, I agree that insane volatility is not what common people are looking for, though it is not so much volatility itself as the dramatic decline as of recent on its own, taken separately. But that's what I'm talking about in the OP. We are going to see speculation winding down, along with prices, sorry. And that should give more room and leeway for real value to expand into, metaphorically speaking, at least in relative terms, and ultimately support solid, long-term growth.

In other words, there's no cloud without a silver lining.

[daarul50]

I am dizzy with all the theories shared by people in this forum about bitcoin speculation in the future, although in the near future this speculation has begun to subside but the right is actually making people more intelligent and do the speculation according to their own thoughts. If we are sure and full calculation then we will be able to get a quick profit by utilizing the fluctuations that occur despite the market trend is in bearish condition.

[XinXan]

I'd rather have that than artificial pumps and dumps. There are a ton of overvalued and undervalued coins simply because they all follow bitcoin. I agree that in the near future, the average joe wont be investing in bitcoin anymore, maybe ICO's but those are being heavily regulated. At the end of the day you don't need them for the market to grow, stocks and normal business only have private sales and IPO's and they still succeed.

[gabmen]

I don't really think so. The whole world doesnt know about crypto. My next door neighbor when i was 15 now relocated to a different state doesn't know much about crypto. People have heard about bitcoin, yes. But the risk of putting money in is so big of a risk and not worthy enough. Seeing the decline from 17,000 now to 6,000 is not much of a good risk to take for many.

And not a very good introduction for this market as well. That's why people will be wary and cautious if ever they're going to invest here. And that will also be the reason why i don't think there'll be another run like that any time soon

[boyshx]

But your theory doesn’t consider the major part of the crypto currency and that’s the whale investors. Why do you think that if the saturation level for information has already been reached and why you think that people won’t invest into it? Most of the time whales could be the reason who is manipulating the rates for bitcoin (in theory) and thus it doesn’t matter if the new investors are coming along the way or not! Have you considered whether this could be just another dump because of panickness and new investors really want to come in but due to such volatility they are not able to make up the mind.

[larissakron]

Well, actually not so much doom and gloom but rather a "scientific" theory for a constructive and meaningful discussion. I don't claim that the proposed theory is necessarily true but with prices going lower and lower it looks like speculation is gradually subsiding and this is what makes ground for this theory. The current decline and depreciation of cryptocurrencies doesn't look like a short-term trend, which will be over in a couple of months. This is the doom and gloom part. The scientific part is that it is a natural course of events given that we are close to what can be called informational saturation. In simple language, everyone already knows about crypto in general and bitcoin specifically. If they wanted to invest in crypto, they already did so. If they didn't, they wouldn't, as simple as it gets. So what does it mean for us all? Essentially, that there is little hope for bitcoin to make new all-time highs any time soon or even just local highs beyond minor rebounds. Over the long term, we will be moving closer to the use value of bitcoin and other coins (if there's any in them in the first place), with the price closer to what it would be if there were no speculation at all.

Please prove me wrong but don't call me vile names at that.

I think we are little fishes here. As example mine portfolio is 10BTC in total. I believe people who matters is ones who can buy 1000 BTC in one go and those people probably made a lot of money out of it already. There is no ex-crypto investor at this point. Once you in, you in, I guess.

[Kertmu]

Increasing the cost BTC in most cases is due to the manipulation of large holders of the cryptocurrency.
Therefore, after the decrease BTC should grow, that would make a profit. Usually this is 5-10%.

Who does not lose faith in BTC can make money if the purchase is at the right time.

[audaciousbeing]

Well, actually not so much doom and gloom but rather a "scientific" theory for a constructive and meaningful discussion. I don't claim that the proposed theory is necessarily true but with prices going lower and lower it looks like speculation is gradually subsiding and this is what makes ground for this theory. The current decline and depreciation of cryptocurrencies doesn't look like a short-term trend, which will be over in a couple of months. This is the doom and gloom part. The scientific part is that it is a natural course of events given that we are close to what can be called informational saturation. In simple language, everyone already knows about crypto in general and bitcoin specifically. If they wanted to invest in crypto, they already did so. If they didn't, they wouldn't, as simple as it gets. So what does it mean for us all? Essentially, that there is little hope for bitcoin to make new all-time highs any time soon or even just local highs beyond minor rebounds. Over the long term, we will be moving closer to the use value of bitcoin and other coins (if there's any in them in the first place), with the price closer to what it would be if there were no speculation at all.

Please prove me wrong but don't call me vile names at that.

This theory is really good and worth considering and to a large extent, its proven to be true and if everyone but its not as straight forward as it sounds because when it comes to human behavior, their attitude cannot be accurate predicted in the form of + or -.

In simple language, everyone already knows about crypto in general and bitcoin specifically. If they wanted to invest in crypto, they already did so. If they didn't, they wouldn't, as simple as it gets.

This is an exaggerated conclusion because its not possible for everybody to know about bitcoin as you might be concluding based on your environment and the people that surrounds you. Over here, I know of educated people that have not heard about bitcoin and if you mention what is being done with blockchain and its potentials, it sound as if you are living in another world. Also, not everybody who wanted to invest had done so. A lot of people are still held back for several reasons. those who are risk averse, those who are scared of the legal ramifications and those who are holding back because of religious connotations and until their believes or fears have been voided, they still remain on the other sides.

[Hirikama29]

Have you ever read the documentation about dom? DOMs are used to access HTML and XML documents, which are structured as a data structure tree, and are typically model independent of the operating system.

[stompix]

In simple language, everyone already knows about crypto in general and bitcoin specifically. If they wanted to invest in crypto, they already did so. If they didn't, they wouldn't, as simple as it gets.

I highly doubt this.
Hearing the news and reading a 3 lines article about bitcoin on the phone can hardly mean knowing about bitcoin, and not all the population has done even that. I'll put the number of people that have actually bothered to research bitcoin and crypto for at least 5 minutes just a bit above 2-5% percent and that only in the western world.
If we talk about 3rd world countries probably we should start with 0... %.

What we have experienced was a quick boom and everybody talked about how much $ you can make which was a turn-off for a lot of people who were afraid of a scam, a ponzi scheme and so on.
Once we stop talking all day about prices and "investments" and more about the utility of the coin you will see a lot more usage and a lot more money entering the crypto world.

[Lamisa asfiya]

I  believe there are still many  people who don't clearly understand about bitcoin and its purpose, but would be able to invest in bitcoin. If the prices constantly moved favourably.So there is nothing to worry about it if will just pull out some of his bitcoin to invest another form of investment.

[jseverson]

Once we stop talking all day about prices and "investments" and more about the utility of the coin you will see a lot more usage and a lot more money entering the crypto world.

I completely agree that we should be selling Bitcoin's utility rather than its potential to help people make quick bucks. It has always been about that after all.

The problem I see right now though, is that Bitcoin's strengths are too niche to be able to attract a sizable part of the population. The average joe likely wouldn't care much about decentralization. Anonymity is cool, but in hindsight, it seems most people only really desire it if they have something to hide. Online payments can also be done with credit cards and debit cards, and they're mostly instant (and free) as far as customers are concerned. Efficient cross-border transfers is arguably its best feature at the moment, and while it's absolutely top-notch, few people require it enough to actually buy into the ecosystem.

I feel like crypto has barely scratched the surface as far as its potential goes. It'll probably be a while until utility can drive significant adoption by itself. I hope I'm proven wrong though lol.

[freedomno1]

Patience is needed you need to forgive and move on, from a gloom and doom view I predict a reality where people continue to remain bearish.
Others will see that not just Bitcoin most alts have collapsed and see an all around opportunity to finish up setting their positions for the next rally.
Let's have fun watching where it goes.

[bdbabiak77]

Your statements are obvious. Like any market it's settling down. Obviously 20K was the peak, and irrationally speculative. The only question is what is it's true value? How low? $1? $0.01?

Yeah, right now the reasons stated may look obvious and they will likely be even more obvious when bitcoin hits lower thousands, but I remember people here being as obviously in denial when they claimed that bitcoin cannot drop a few times after it reached 20k in December. The forum consensus had it that with higher prices there will be less volatility. But as you said, it was only irrational speculation bundled with delusion and infantilism.

Anyone who disagreed that we passed the peak would be delusional and infantile - but there are a lot of those still around here

With that agreed, I can't but still point out the possibility of the long-term, "organic" growth of a few cryptocurrencies (though not necessarily bitcoin) due to expansion in real use. After all, the advantages that decentralized coins offer are not going away, and if more people actually use these coins for purposes other than "irrational speculation", it pretty much means real, solid growth.

I'm actually pretty happy with all this. I was there from the get-go (old man). It's getting back to the roots, the technology, in short, it's becoming fun again!

[tee-rex]

But your theory doesn’t consider the major part of the crypto currency and that’s the whale investors. Why do you think that if the saturation level for information has already been reached and why you think that people won’t invest into it? Most of the time whales could be the reason who is manipulating the rates for bitcoin (in theory) and thus it doesn’t matter if the new investors are coming along the way or not! Have you considered whether this could be just another dump because of panickness and new investors really want to come in but due to such volatility they are not able to make up the mind.

Honestly, I don't think that the whale investors make up the major part of the cryptoverse. There are big holders, no doubt about that, but they are not investors. Anyway, everyone speaks about these investors but why are the prices falling down then? These people are not fools, they are going to be the fuel for market growth, speculative growth. Whoever had been investing in crypto before was doing that for profit. But speculation can't go on forever, right now it is steadily subsiding, along with prices. In my opinion, we are now entering a new stage, where real use will prevail over speculation. Obviously, prices won't be like they were in late 2017, but they will be real, even though that could mean 500-50-5 dollars per bitcoin (with most alts losing any value).