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Title: [SCRYPT] Probability of not solo mining a block in a period of x time? Post by: 01BTC10 on February 09, 2014, 07:27:21 PM I'm actually solo mining Dogecoin with my own private MPOS pool. The CoinWarz calculator tells me that I should mine one block per 0.65days however I've been mining for 2 days without solving any block.
How could I estimate the probability of not finding a block for a period of x days ? I'm wondering if I screwed something in my pool setup. Title: Re: [SCRYPT] Probability of not solo mining a block in a period of x time? Post by: Jarod1231 on February 09, 2014, 07:29:46 PM The calculator is just an estimate... you could hit a block within 1 second, or you could never hit a block, thats how it works
Title: Re: [SCRYPT] Probability of not solo mining a block in a period of x time? Post by: 01BTC10 on February 09, 2014, 07:31:10 PM The calculator is just an estimate... you could hit a block within 1 second, or you could never hit a block, thats how it works Yes, I know but I want to calculate the probability of not finding a block for a period of x.Title: Re: [SCRYPT] Probability of not solo mining a block in a period of x time? Post by: Test User on February 09, 2014, 07:31:18 PM This is a simple application of the Poisson distribution.
Lambda = Expected number of blocks per day Prob (No blocks) = e ^ -Lambda In your case, 1 block per 0.65 days = 1.54 blocks per day. P(No blocks) = e^ -1.54 = 21% Title: Re: [SCRYPT] Probability of not solo mining a block in a period of x time? Post by: 01BTC10 on February 09, 2014, 07:37:21 PM Thank you sir.
Title: Re: [SCRYPT] Probability of not solo mining a block in a period of x time? Post by: Test User on February 09, 2014, 08:07:05 PM Oops. I got it slightly wrong; I missed the 2 days bit.
Lambda = expected number of blocks in the period So, for 2 days, lambda = 3.08 P(No block) = e ^ -3.08 = 4.5% Title: Re: [SCRYPT] Probability of not solo mining a block in a period of x time? Post by: 01BTC10 on February 10, 2014, 12:42:56 PM Thanks, finally I was unlucky. I resumed solo mining and almost immediately got such block. :D
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