[SCRYPT] Probability of not solo mining a block in a period of x time?

[01BTC10]

I'm actually solo mining Dogecoin with my own private MPOS pool. The CoinWarz calculator tells me that I should mine one block per 0.65days however I've been mining for 2 days without solving any block.

How could I estimate the probability of not finding a block for a period of x days ? I'm wondering if I screwed something in my pool setup.

[Jarod1231]

The calculator is just an estimate... you could hit a block within 1 second, or you could never hit a block, thats how it works

[01BTC10]

The calculator is just an estimate... you could hit a block within 1 second, or you could never hit a block, thats how it works

Yes, I know but I want to calculate the probability of not finding a block for a period of x.

[Test User]

This is a simple application of the Poisson distribution.

Lambda = Expected number of blocks per day

Prob (No blocks) = e ^ -Lambda

In your case, 1 block per 0.65 days = 1.54 blocks per day.

P(No blocks) = e^ -1.54 = 21%

[01BTC10]

Thank you sir.

[Test User]

Oops. I got it slightly wrong; I missed the 2 days bit.

Lambda = expected number of blocks in the period

So, for 2 days, lambda = 3.08

P(No block) = e ^ -3.08 = 4.5%

[01BTC10]

Thanks, finally I was unlucky. I resumed solo mining and almost immediately got such block.