Bitcoin Forum

The first Halving in the "short" history of Bitcoin was on 28/11/2012 after the first 210,000 blocks, from the famous 03/01/2009 to 18.15 hours Greenwich, in which the first bitcoin block was extracted (genesis block ); from that day on, it has gone from a reward for miners from 50 Btc (many of them made with their home PC :-)) to 25 Btc for block.

Subsequently, after the blaze of 2013 and the heavy fall of 2014-15, there was a new Halving on 04/07/2016 where we went from a reward of 25 Btc to the current 12.5 Btc for block. So new price flare in 2017 and new heavy decline, still in place.

To date and until May 2020 we have 12.5 Btc for block and about 1800 Btc mined every day. Then we will have:

03/01/2009 ----- 28/11/2012 ------- 50 Btc for block ------- 7200 Btc every day
28/11/2012 ----- 04/07/2016 ------- 25 Btc for block ------- 3600 Btc every day
04/07/2016 ---- 25/05/2020 ------- 12.5 Btc for block ------- 1800 Btc every day
25/05/2020 ---- May 2024 ----- 6.25 Btc for block ------- 900 Btc every day
May 2024 --- May 2028 ---- 3.125 Btc for block ------ 450 Btc every day
May 2028 --- May 2032 ---- 1.5625 Btc for Block ---- 225 Btc every day
(the dates will probably change slightly, but it's right to have a reference)

Leaving aside what happened in the past and in the previous 2 Halving, if Bitcoin survives the next 10 years or about 3500 days that are missing at 5 Halving of its history, we will have from May 2028 about 1.5625 Btc of reward for each of the 144 blocks, 225 Bitcoins a day!

The question is simple and one: What could be the price of 1 Bitcoin in 10 years, considering the most widespread and exponential adoption that will take place over time? The likely opening of regulated markets, with the mass entry of institutional and private, through mutual funds, ETF, pension funds, etc.? The probable adoption of many e-commerce platforms (perhaps integrating it with their internal coin), of debit and credit cards, of strategic asset?
Of his RARITY? ONLY 225 Bitcoins mined every day from May 2028!

Make your estimate:
How much will 1 Btc be worth in December 2029, after 5 Halving and after a probable new rise?

https://i.imgur.com/LmOWdkr.jpg


I realized only today (14-08-18) that this was my 1000 post on bitcointalk, and I did it on 08/08/2018 at 20:18  ;D   wowwww

Very interesting info and charts.However, I don't think that anyone could answer your questions.
All the stuff that you are writing about:ETF approval and institutional investors buying lots of btc,e-commerse
platforms accepting btc,etc. are just possibilities.They didn't happend in the past or in the present.What makes you think that they will happen in the future?I think that the btc halving doesn't have such impact over the bitcoin price.We shouldn't care that much about it.

The history shows that speculation and FOMO had much more effect on the price than the halvings.
An ETF may get approved within one year and then we can discuss of a recovery. However, no one can tell what will be the price tomorrow, so why try to speculate so far away?

I believe that $1 million+ is a good estimate. of course being a very far away future makes it near impossible to predict things because a lot of things can change. for example we may finally see that financial crisis that people have been talking about for years and it can push bitcoin to beyond all expectations as a lot of money rushes into bitcoin to be stored there.

Spread hope  :D
Of course with the halving, we have increased difficulties and less rewards for miners so there will be a rise in the mining fees and finally a rise in the bitcoin price.
So the key message is HODL.

you mean mining "cost" not "fee"?
and it does not exactly work like that. if mining reward goes down after the halving the profitability of mining goes down but that doesn't mean price would magically go up because reward went down.
price goes up first based on speculation and hype and next because there would be less fresh coins entering the market every day. and finally like always it will rise ONLY if adoption rises and adoption rises based on different factors not the mining reward.

Forget about ETF's and focus on what's happening in the background with LN.

It's safe to say that the ETF shithow has been taken up too much of people's attention lately. Seriously, two months ago no one gave a shit about ETF's and suddenly people act like Bitcoin badly needs it. Don't get me wrong, an ETF might trigger institutional adoption, but we have grown to where we are right now without ETF's and we'll continue to grow without them for plenty of more years.

Did anyone here even pay attention to how madly powerful Bitcoin's network has become lately? Of course not. ::)

I think that after the next halving, Bitcoin's price will not be lower than 20000. Before halving, I would not wait for the strong growth of the market. Will the altcoins survive to this time?

It's a lot of wishful thinking, but I suppose there's no harm in partaking.

Halving at 2020 will be the most significant yet, in my opinion. Plenty of people already knew about it in 2016, but this might be the first one that will be on the calendars of institutional investors, private equity etc. who would have all bought in probably after the 2016 halving. I'm thinking that some of that will have already been priced in (!) but next year is when people will really sit up and notice and note that supply is not going to be as plentiful for long more. Miners, especially will have been working hard all the way up til then. Imagine hashrate thats at least an order of magnitude more than today, and yet half the block reward.

Tempting to think that all this pressure leads up to the million dollar Bitcoin by 2028 but no, I think the next decade still has plenty of steam and fire from detractors, enough at least to keep Bitcoin price under constant pressure.

But I'm with 1Ref on ETF. Wtf guys? We've had Segwit take a sound and deserving stand, and LN quietly moving a lot more swiftly than I'd have expected. That's going to keep Bitcoin even further ahead of any other payment method.

I would love to see history prove you right. Because math and computing issues can be solved faster than the fuzzy world of speculation.
But somehow the price was more affected by the speculators' feeling than the tech approach and that's why the ETF looks more important than I'd like.

And the main topic here is about price. If we rule that out, then yes, LN, the low fees we have lately and so on are nice steps in the right direction.

I wouldn't say ETFs are that important in themselves but you partially answered why they are part of something important. They will not trigger institutional adoption by themselves in the same way that futures markets didn't. But institutional investors do need these things to be in place before they really consider Bitcoin to be a viable asset. If that happens and we see large pension funds investing and even governments using it as a reserve currency that'll be the biggest surge in value of all. I'm not saying those things will happen but we can already see signs that mainstream financial institutions are getting interested (the Bakkt announcement for one (https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20180803005236/en/Intercontinental-Exchange-Announces-Bakkt-Global-Platform-Ecosystem)).

Although Bitcoin is intended to be used as a currency adoption as a payment means probably has a far smaller impact on price than investors do. If a retailer starts accepting Bitcoin but then immediately sells it for fiat to pay its suppliers that doesn't increase demand.

I would put the influence of the halving and decreasing supply as being less important than both of those things. There is an effect there but it is known factor and should really be priced in.

First of all, however, some clarifications:

1) Perhaps I had not been clear at the beginning, so I highlighted it better "if Bitcoin survives in the next 10 years"; so it is useless to say that we do not know what happens tomorrow .... this is obvious. We are only discussing a hypothetical futuristic vision, absurd and unlikely for some or very realistic for others.
Obviously nobody has the answers and nobody knows the future  ;)

2) we do not watch segwit yesterday or today's ETF or again LN tomorrow; we try to go and look beyond our nose .... that's why a horizon of 10 years. It's shocking but it's also ambitious and fascinating, it makes you think!


What I would say to really understand and deepen is the extraction of Bitcoin in 2028; in one month of that year we will have ONLY 1.5625 Bitcoins of block rewards and ONLY 225 Bitcoins in one day, almost 90% less than today.
In 2028 20,343,250 Bitcoins were extracted of the 21,000,000 total, about 97%!
These are numbers and facts, irrefutable!

In my opinion, if and how it survives, the value of Btc in 2029 will be about $ 100 or $ 1,000,000.

If miners have the same power consumption and difficulty as today and you think mining cost floors the price then the price has to be 8 times higher than it is today for miners to break even. Which is circa $50k.

They won't. The market price of Bitcoin determines the network difficulty. If the price goes up then it is profitable to mine so more people will mine resulting in the difficulty going up. If the price goes down the miners with the highest costs become unprofitable and they will stop mining resulting in the difficulty falling.

This is definitely a great question but one that is impossible to answer with any degree of certainty since so many things can happen during that time frame, but assuming that things in the world keep going in the same direction and that nothing major like a world war erupted, then I can say that it is a sure thing that bitcoin will be here with a very high value by that time and I expect bitcoin to touch 6 figures.

All those graphs make absolutely no sense, and the question itself is more of rhetoric, as things are driven by huge amount of different unrelated factors, while you take into account only couple of them.

The mining "dump" is the least important of the Bitcoin price drivers, and so the halvings have more of psychological effect, if any at all.
How one could draw all those 'scientific'-looking graphs based on a single unimportant factor and based on the old behavior, especially for such long time period, when
 - you don't even know which events can happen during that period in world politics
 - you have no idea how strong the USD will be during that period, and whether it will retain its buying power at all

People who talk much about BTC price vs USD, are mostly those who perceive USD as something of big and stable value. Which it is not.
If you necessarily need to talk about Bitcoin price, at least take gold as a base currency.

it actually is an important thing but not the way that people usually think (in terms of "dump" and "cost"). mining is a way of introducing new coins into circulation. in other words the increase of bitcoin supply. and for price to continue to rise, we have to see the demand increase at the same rate or higher.

gold price is not stable either!

by 2020, btc price at 200k.

by the following halving, btc to be at one million - since its not linear progression!

From an economic view it's less supply = higher price given demand is stable. The easier way to think about it is that right now about $10,000,000 needs to come to market each day to keep bitcoin price stable (in theory). Once there's only 225 btc a day instead of 1800 and assuming $10m is still introduced each day then a stable price point would mean bitcoin being priced at around $45,000.

Long terms charts have no connection on Bitcoin's price or what it is now. By that time there is no doubt that more of Bitcoin's supply will be up and mostly available for the market, the question is will the miners make it available to the market or will they just hold it to make the price go up? Other factors such as regulation and mass adoption is also what we need to look at as this will really affect the demand 5-10 years from now, to keep it short having long term price predictions is really not a good idea as it will be inaccurate with a lot of factors to consider. 

The ETF hype is useful for now as it gives hope of a bull run while we wait for the main event which is of course the bitcoin halving. From the charts we can see that it is definitely heading for 6 figures, so just keep collecting for a couple more years while the market is down

I think we are forgetting the miners fee as well. So if  the volume of transactions goes up as much as the loss of the halving than the price doesn't need to double. By logic if there was no transaction fee than the price should have doubled or at least miner costs should have doubled and that should affect the price. However if the transaction number goes up by 2020 or anything above that than the miner costs would not double and they will make that money from the transaction fee as well and that way miners can still make their money from it without doubling their costs.

Hence, I think it is important to check how much transaction fee is paid everyday, if you see the number going up steadily than the price will not increase (at least not double even if it increases a bit). All this considered I doubt the price would change drastically during halving periods.

Yes, its important to take the tx fee into account too, however if at some point transaction fees in a bitcoin block increase to the point they can compete with the new minted amount, it would mean Bitcoin get some real usage and adoption. And, I want to stress again, that factor (adoption and usage) is way more important for the price, that those new minted coins and block reward halvings.

If we want to be honest with ourselves then all the graphs do not make sense because we are only looking at the past, and there is no guarantee for the future.

Moreover, according to me, mining dump is the most important factor for the parabolic growth of bitcoin prices, because up to 27 months ago we had 3600 Btc available every day, while in about 18 months we will have 900 Btc per day, and yet within 10 years we will have ONLY 225 Btc every day; what's even more important is that in 2028, over 97% of all the bitcoins that have ever been available have already been extracted in 2028.

There are over 16 million people in the world who have a legacy of over
$ 1 million (in 2016) ..... how many of these do you think will want to own at least 1 Btc, and how much will they be willing to pay for it?

Finally it is obvious that we can not and have not taken into account events beyond our logical analysis; it is obvious that if a world war breaks out it can change everything, as it is also true that if a solar flare arrives it fry all of them, or even a meteorite that leads us to the stone age, etc.

I would say to focus on events and forecasts that we can work out with a certain logic, consistent with the mathematical models and the statistics that we have available today, always considering that the analysis and study of the graphs and past events is not guarantee and certainty for the future.

That said, as I said in a previous post, I personally see bitcoin in 10 years from now under $ 100 or over $ 1000000, depending on any event external to it, and unpredictable for any analyst.

Less block rewards isn't necessarily less selling pressure on the market with how the price keeps increasing.

If you look at the ratios based on fiat, which is what actually matters here, 12.5BTC block rewards at current levels means more selling pressure than 25BTC at $1000, and this can be taken back to 50BTC rewards easily.

The price has always compensated the 50% reduction in block rewards throughout the years, and that by orders of magnitude. We're at a point at which miners are forced to sit on their coins, meaning that there is too much supply.

Sure, they could be unloading some of their coins to OTC market makers (which I think is already happening), but that's definitely not enough to consistently have a buyer for every single coin they mine.

Sure. All the extrapolation graphs and even more generally - any quantitative analysis - are just mind exercises, something to keep your intellect busy with. 99% of them will always turn false. I believe one can make some qualitative analysis though, with more chances for being correct.

Well, sure you are entitled to your opinion. As BitHodler (posted above) noted, less BTC dumped does not equal to less USD pressure, so these seeminly logical calculations turn to be not that relevant.
My take on this is based on long-time observations on other PoW crypto coins. In general alts give us a unique possibility to study possible models for BTC performance, as some of them have shorter lifecycle (due to different block times, different block rewards, etc) and they have passed already many halving periods. "Alts" are kind of "alternativa e history" one could learn on. But that is a different topic I would not elaborate on.

What I have actually observed on alts - sure, constant mining pressure has distinctive effect, which expresses itself in constant suppression and slow price decrease during "idle" period. However all that is diminished by price moves done during development times - when a considerable improvement or adoption takes place. As a result the miners dump just makes an opportunity for a believer to buy cheap at the times when seemingly nothing happens... BUT if there is a development and continued adoption, effect of mining pressure is practically negligible compared to price movement caused by those factors. The "if" in the previous sentence is a big one, but I really hope in case of Bitcoin I can count on those two factors being present.

As you surely understand, I was not talking only about this kind of events. There are many macroeconomic events, which affect the fiat price drastically. The world is boiling. Probably living where I do, I am less prone to consider the world stable. I have seen a whole state (empire) crashing around me, when people were sure it is going to be there forever.
US struggles to keep its dominance, and with competitors rising in te east, it would have hard time keeping USD worth of anything.

Heh, I've done those exercises a lot back then, while studying in university. Quite entertaining, but not much more than that...

Not sure about exact numbers, but - yes, this is hard to disagree with. I would consider this more of a qualitative prediction though, despite of the fact there were numbers used :)

It is funny how many replays but no one actually tried to answer the question. 

Price will be over $1 million and new bull run will start forming that will push it further.

True, I asked myself too and I do not understand why nobody or very few try to give a possible future quotation ???


I read your prediction elsewhere in which you guessed almost the exact $
I hope for all of you that even your prediction here in 1Btc => $ 1000000 can come true ;)
If so, I'll make a transfer $ 1,000 at your bank account ;D ;D ;D :P