Bitcoin after 5 Halving - 10 years from now - What will be its price?

[kronos123]

The first Halving in the "short" history of Bitcoin was on 28/11/2012 after the first 210,000 blocks, from the famous 03/01/2009 to 18.15 hours Greenwich, in which the first bitcoin block was extracted (genesis block ); from that day on, it has gone from a reward for miners from 50 Btc (many of them made with their home PC :-)) to 25 Btc for block.

Subsequently, after the blaze of 2013 and the heavy fall of 2014-15, there was a new Halving on 04/07/2016 where we went from a reward of 25 Btc to the current 12.5 Btc for block. So new price flare in 2017 and new heavy decline, still in place.

To date and until May 2020 we have 12.5 Btc for block and about 1800 Btc mined every day. Then we will have:

03/01/2009 ----- 28/11/2012 ------- 50 Btc for block ------- 7200 Btc every day
28/11/2012 ----- 04/07/2016 ------- 25 Btc for block ------- 3600 Btc every day
04/07/2016 ---- 25/05/2020 ------- 12.5 Btc for block ------- 1800 Btc every day
25/05/2020 ---- May 2024 ----- 6.25 Btc for block ------- 900 Btc every day
May 2024 --- May 2028 ---- 3.125 Btc for block ------ 450 Btc every day
May 2028 --- May 2032 ---- 1.5625 Btc for Block ---- 225 Btc every day
(the dates will probably change slightly, but it's right to have a reference)

Leaving aside what happened in the past and in the previous 2 Halving, if Bitcoin survives the next 10 years or about 3500 days that are missing at 5 Halving of its history, we will have from May 2028 about 1.5625 Btc of reward for each of the 144 blocks, 225 Bitcoins a day!

The question is simple and one: What could be the price of 1 Bitcoin in 10 years, considering the most widespread and exponential adoption that will take place over time? The likely opening of regulated markets, with the mass entry of institutional and private, through mutual funds, ETF, pension funds, etc.? The probable adoption of many e-commerce platforms (perhaps integrating it with their internal coin), of debit and credit cards, of strategic asset?
Of his RARITY? ONLY 225 Bitcoins mined every day from May 2028!

Make your estimate:
How much will 1 Btc be worth in December 2029, after 5 Halving and after a probable new rise?




I realized only today (14-08-18) that this was my 1000 post on bitcointalk, and I did it on 08/08/2018 at 20:18     wowwww

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[davis196]

Very interesting info and charts.However, I don't think that anyone could answer your questions.
All the stuff that you are writing about:ETF approval and institutional investors buying lots of btc,e-commerse
platforms accepting btc,etc. are just possibilities.They didn't happend in the past or in the present.What makes you think that they will happen in the future?I think that the btc halving doesn't have such impact over the bitcoin price.We shouldn't care that much about it.

[NeuroticFish]

The history shows that speculation and FOMO had much more effect on the price than the halvings.
An ETF may get approved within one year and then we can discuss of a recovery. However, no one can tell what will be the price tomorrow, so why try to speculate so far away?

[Pursuer]

I believe that $1 million+ is a good estimate. of course being a very far away future makes it near impossible to predict things because a lot of things can change. for example we may finally see that financial crisis that people have been talking about for years and it can push bitcoin to beyond all expectations as a lot of money rushes into bitcoin to be stored there.

[snipie]

The history shows that speculation and FOMO had much more effect on the price than the halvings.
An ETF may get approved within one year and then we can discuss of a recovery. However, no one can tell what will be the price tomorrow, so why try to speculate so far away?

Spread hope  
Of course with the halving, we have increased difficulties and less rewards for miners so there will be a rise in the mining fees and finally a rise in the bitcoin price.
So the key message is HODL.

[Pursuer]

The history shows that speculation and FOMO had much more effect on the price than the halvings.
An ETF may get approved within one year and then we can discuss of a recovery. However, no one can tell what will be the price tomorrow, so why try to speculate so far away?

Spread hope 
Of course with the halving, we have increased difficulties and less rewards for miners so there will be a rise in the mining fees and finally a rise in the bitcoin price.
So the key message is HODL.

you mean mining "cost" not "fee"?
and it does not exactly work like that. if mining reward goes down after the halving the profitability of mining goes down but that doesn't mean price would magically go up because reward went down.
price goes up first based on speculation and hype and next because there would be less fresh coins entering the market every day. and finally like always it will rise ONLY if adoption rises and adoption rises based on different factors not the mining reward.

[1Referee]

An ETF may get approved within one year and then we can discuss of a recovery.

Forget about ETF's and focus on what's happening in the background with LN.

It's safe to say that the ETF shithow has been taken up too much of people's attention lately. Seriously, two months ago no one gave a shit about ETF's and suddenly people act like Bitcoin badly needs it. Don't get me wrong, an ETF might trigger institutional adoption, but we have grown to where we are right now without ETF's and we'll continue to grow without them for plenty of more years.

Did anyone here even pay attention to how madly powerful Bitcoin's network has become lately? Of course not.

[vgk88]

I think that after the next halving, Bitcoin's price will not be lower than 20000. Before halving, I would not wait for the strong growth of the market. Will the altcoins survive to this time?

[buwaytress]

It's a lot of wishful thinking, but I suppose there's no harm in partaking.

Halving at 2020 will be the most significant yet, in my opinion. Plenty of people already knew about it in 2016, but this might be the first one that will be on the calendars of institutional investors, private equity etc. who would have all bought in probably after the 2016 halving. I'm thinking that some of that will have already been priced in (!) but next year is when people will really sit up and notice and note that supply is not going to be as plentiful for long more. Miners, especially will have been working hard all the way up til then. Imagine hashrate thats at least an order of magnitude more than today, and yet half the block reward.

Tempting to think that all this pressure leads up to the million dollar Bitcoin by 2028 but no, I think the next decade still has plenty of steam and fire from detractors, enough at least to keep Bitcoin price under constant pressure.

But I'm with 1Ref on ETF. Wtf guys? We've had Segwit take a sound and deserving stand, and LN quietly moving a lot more swiftly than I'd have expected. That's going to keep Bitcoin even further ahead of any other payment method.

[NeuroticFish]

An ETF may get approved within one year and then we can discuss of a recovery.

Forget about ETF's and focus on what's happening in the background with LN.

It's safe to say that the ETF shithow has been taken up too much of people's attention lately. Seriously, two months ago no one gave a shit about ETF's and suddenly people act like Bitcoin badly needs it. Don't get me wrong, an ETF might trigger institutional adoption, but we have grown to where we are right now without ETF's and we'll continue to grow without them for plenty of more years.

Did anyone here even pay attention to how madly powerful Bitcoin's network has become lately? Of course not.

I would love to see history prove you right. Because math and computing issues can be solved faster than the fuzzy world of speculation.
But somehow the price was more affected by the speculators' feeling than the tech approach and that's why the ETF looks more important than I'd like.

And the main topic here is about price. If we rule that out, then yes, LN, the low fees we have lately and so on are nice steps in the right direction.

[TheQuin]

Forget about ETF's and focus on what's happening in the background with LN.

It's safe to say that the ETF shithow has been taken up too much of people's attention lately. Seriously, two months ago no one gave a shit about ETF's and suddenly people act like Bitcoin badly needs it. Don't get me wrong, an ETF might trigger institutional adoption, but we have grown to where we are right now without ETF's and we'll continue to grow without them for plenty of more years.

Did anyone here even pay attention to how madly powerful Bitcoin's network has become lately? Of course not.

I wouldn't say ETFs are that important in themselves but you partially answered why they are part of something important. They will not trigger institutional adoption by themselves in the same way that futures markets didn't. But institutional investors do need these things to be in place before they really consider Bitcoin to be a viable asset. If that happens and we see large pension funds investing and even governments using it as a reserve currency that'll be the biggest surge in value of all. I'm not saying those things will happen but we can already see signs that mainstream financial institutions are getting interested (the Bakkt announcement for one).

Although Bitcoin is intended to be used as a currency adoption as a payment means probably has a far smaller impact on price than investors do. If a retailer starts accepting Bitcoin but then immediately sells it for fiat to pay its suppliers that doesn't increase demand.

I would put the influence of the halving and decreasing supply as being less important than both of those things. There is an effect there but it is known factor and should really be priced in.

[kronos123]

Very interesting info and charts.However, I don't think that anyone could answer your questions.
All the stuff that you are writing about:ETF approval and institutional investors buying lots of btc,e-commerse
platforms accepting btc,etc. are just possibilities.They didn't happend in the past or in the present.What makes you think that they will happen in the future?I think that the btc halving doesn't have such impact over the bitcoin price.We shouldn't care that much about it.

First of all, however, some clarifications:

1) Perhaps I had not been clear at the beginning, so I highlighted it better "if Bitcoin survives in the next 10 years"; so it is useless to say that we do not know what happens tomorrow .... this is obvious. We are only discussing a hypothetical futuristic vision, absurd and unlikely for some or very realistic for others.
Obviously nobody has the answers and nobody knows the future 

2) we do not watch segwit yesterday or today's ETF or again LN tomorrow; we try to go and look beyond our nose .... that's why a horizon of 10 years. It's shocking but it's also ambitious and fascinating, it makes you think!


What I would say to really understand and deepen is the extraction of Bitcoin in 2028; in one month of that year we will have ONLY 1.5625 Bitcoins of block rewards and ONLY 225 Bitcoins in one day, almost 90% less than today.
In 2028 20,343,250 Bitcoins were extracted of the 21,000,000 total, about 97%!
These are numbers and facts, irrefutable!

In my opinion, if and how it survives, the value of Btc in 2029 will be about $ 100 or $ 1,000,000.

[Asrael999]

If miners have the same power consumption and difficulty as today and you think mining cost floors the price then the price has to be 8 times higher than it is today for miners to break even. Which is circa $50k.

[TheQuin]

If miners have the same power consumption and difficulty as today and you think mining cost floors the price then the price has to be 8 times higher than it is today for miners to break even. Which is circa $50k.

They won't. The market price of Bitcoin determines the network difficulty. If the price goes up then it is profitable to mine so more people will mine resulting in the difficulty going up. If the price goes down the miners with the highest costs become unprofitable and they will stop mining resulting in the difficulty falling.

[winterland]

This is definitely a great question but one that is impossible to answer with any degree of certainty since so many things can happen during that time frame, but assuming that things in the world keep going in the same direction and that nothing major like a world war erupted, then I can say that it is a sure thing that bitcoin will be here with a very high value by that time and I expect bitcoin to touch 6 figures.

[drays]

All those graphs make absolutely no sense, and the question itself is more of rhetoric, as things are driven by huge amount of different unrelated factors, while you take into account only couple of them.

The mining "dump" is the least important of the Bitcoin price drivers, and so the halvings have more of psychological effect, if any at all.
How one could draw all those 'scientific'-looking graphs based on a single unimportant factor and based on the old behavior, especially for such long time period, when
 - you don't even know which events can happen during that period in world politics
 - you have no idea how strong the USD will be during that period, and whether it will retain its buying power at all

People who talk much about BTC price vs USD, are mostly those who perceive USD as something of big and stable value. Which it is not.
If you necessarily need to talk about Bitcoin price, at least take gold as a base currency.

[Pursuer]

The mining "dump" is the least important of the Bitcoin price drivers,

it actually is an important thing but not the way that people usually think (in terms of "dump" and "cost"). mining is a way of introducing new coins into circulation. in other words the increase of bitcoin supply. and for price to continue to rise, we have to see the demand increase at the same rate or higher.

If you necessarily need to talk about Bitcoin price, at least take gold as a base currency.

gold price is not stable either!

[stelee68]

by 2020, btc price at 200k.

by the following halving, btc to be at one million - since its not linear progression!

[cindygirl]

The mining "dump" is the least important of the Bitcoin price drivers,

it actually is an important thing but not the way that people usually think (in terms of "dump" and "cost"). mining is a way of introducing new coins into circulation. in other words the increase of bitcoin supply. and for price to continue to rise, we have to see the demand increase at the same rate or higher.

If you necessarily need to talk about Bitcoin price, at least take gold as a base currency.

gold price is not stable either!

From an economic view it's less supply = higher price given demand is stable. The easier way to think about it is that right now about $10,000,000 needs to come to market each day to keep bitcoin price stable (in theory). Once there's only 225 btc a day instead of 1800 and assuming $10m is still introduced each day then a stable price point would mean bitcoin being priced at around $45,000.

[Theb]

Long terms charts have no connection on Bitcoin's price or what it is now. By that time there is no doubt that more of Bitcoin's supply will be up and mostly available for the market, the question is will the miners make it available to the market or will they just hold it to make the price go up? Other factors such as regulation and mass adoption is also what we need to look at as this will really affect the demand 5-10 years from now, to keep it short having long term price predictions is really not a good idea as it will be inaccurate with a lot of factors to consider.