Bitcoin Forum

Economy => Speculation => Topic started by: gog1 on February 25, 2014, 03:37:05 AM



Title: Now that Gox is dead, shouldn't we have a rally?
Post by: gog1 on February 25, 2014, 03:37:05 AM
One of the reason the other exchange's prices are depressed was the belief that Gox will resume withdraw, which caused cheap coins being picked up at gox to be dumped elsewhere.  Now that Gox seems to have lost everything, shouldn't we have a massive rally now that this 'phantom' dump will no longer take place.


Title: Re: Now that Gox is dead, shouldn't we have a rally?
Post by: pungopete468 on February 25, 2014, 03:43:09 AM
within a day we will; it's going to crash a bit but then it's back to normal possibly even a rally.


Title: Re: Now that Gox is dead, shouldn't we have a rally?
Post by: bitcon on February 25, 2014, 03:49:03 AM
many people viewing this fiasco as a blackeye on bitcoins reputation.  many investors being scared off.


Title: Re: Now that Gox is dead, shouldn't we have a rally?
Post by: damnek on February 25, 2014, 03:49:28 AM
One of the reason the other exchange's prices are depressed was the belief that Gox will resume withdraw, which caused cheap coins being picked up at gox to be dumped elsewhere.  Now that Gox seems to have lost everything, shouldn't we have a massive rally now that this 'phantom' dump will no longer take place.

That is also what I'm expecting. It will take a little while for the irrational selling to cool off, and then the whole situation with mtgox should be priced in, and we can start the recovery.


Title: Re: Now that Gox is dead, shouldn't we have a rally?
Post by: JoelKatz on February 25, 2014, 03:50:45 AM
One of the reason the other exchange's prices are depressed was the belief that Gox will resume withdraw, which caused cheap coins being picked up at gox to be dumped elsewhere.  Now that Gox seems to have lost everything, shouldn't we have a massive rally now that this 'phantom' dump will no longer take place.
This also means:

1) There are fewer coins than people thought there were, thus supply is reduced. All the coins believed held at Mt Gox probably didn't exist and were already in circulation.

2) People have fewer coins than they wanted to have, thus demand is increased. Everyone who thought they had coins at Mt Gox now knows they probably don't.

Both these factors should put upward pressure on the price. The downward movement is irrational. (Unless Gox is dumping Bitcoins on Bitstamp.)


Title: Re: Now that Gox is dead, shouldn't we have a rally?
Post by: BreathOfZen on February 25, 2014, 03:51:40 AM
No? It turns out that one of the most entrenched and well known Bitcoin vendors was a large fraud, casting the doubt of "ponzi" on all of Bitcoin as a whole. Most people didn't know that MtGox was a problem, and now they will hear in the media that "bitcoin==fraud".  Why would it go up?


Title: Re: Now that Gox is dead, shouldn't we have a rally?
Post by: DieJohnny on February 25, 2014, 03:58:58 AM
One of the reason the other exchange's prices are depressed was the belief that Gox will resume withdraw, which caused cheap coins being picked up at gox to be dumped elsewhere.  Now that Gox seems to have lost everything, shouldn't we have a massive rally now that this 'phantom' dump will no longer take place.
This also means:

1) There are fewer coins than people thought there were, thus supply is reduced. All the coins believed held at Mt Gox probably didn't exist and were already in circulation.

2) People have fewer coins than they wanted to have, thus demand is increased. Everyone who thought they had coins at Mt Gox now knows they probably don't.

Both these factors should put upward pressure on the price. The downward movement is irrational.


If bitcoin were not already worth 6 billion dollars, maybe I would be more aligned with your sentiment. Billions are hard to come by even today.

We also do not know the extent of the fraud, incompetence, et cetera... and the vulnerability of the current market. Only time will tell...

I think we will see a capitulation ahead as we still have lots of mining going on and people will continue to convert to fiat to pay their bills. could see $100 coins IMHO.... Bitcoin is vulnerable right now, keeping my eye on all possibilities.

Better hope another bitcoin technology vulnerability is not exposed in the next few weeks.....



Title: Re: Now that Gox is dead, shouldn't we have a rally?
Post by: spiderbrain on February 25, 2014, 04:00:38 AM
No? It turns out that one of the most entrenched and well known Bitcoin vendors was a large fraud, casting the doubt of "ponzi" on all of Bitcoin as a whole. Most people didn't know that MtGox was a problem, and now they will hear in the media that "bitcoin==fraud".  Why would it go up?
The 'most people' who will think this aren't the people who buy and sell bitcoins.


Title: Re: Now that Gox is dead, shouldn't we have a rally?
Post by: Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay on February 25, 2014, 04:02:26 AM


2) People have fewer coins than they wanted to have, thus demand is increased. Everyone who thought they had coins at Mt Gox now knows they probably don't.

Both these factors should put upward pressure on the price. The downward movement is irrational. (Unless Gox is dumping Bitcoins on Bitstamp.)


LOL, you really think that people who "thought they had coins on Mt Gox" would now run to give away more of their $$$$ to another completely unregulated exchange?

I beg to differ. What is worst, the ppl who planned to invest in bit coin may now have second thoughts


Title: Re: Now that Gox is dead, shouldn't we have a rally?
Post by: nmersulypnem on February 25, 2014, 04:02:35 AM
An important thing to understand is that a lot of the people who *would* usually rally, have just lost all their money on the Gox platform.


Title: Re: Now that Gox is dead, shouldn't we have a rally?
Post by: orpington on February 25, 2014, 04:03:34 AM
Totally rally time!

Pop the cork!

Finally that mess is gone.


Title: Re: Now that Gox is dead, shouldn't we have a rally?
Post by: redhawk979 on February 25, 2014, 04:04:00 AM
If Gox was a fly-by-night exchange that folded, I don't think the price would have fluctuated much.

However as others have said, because Gox was very public and well known and it was often the exchange cited in the press (even if that was a poor choice). I wouldn't be surprised to see the story crop up on one of the larger news outlets like WSJ. I would expect the price to continue dropping for another few days until some positive news flows in.


Title: Re: Now that Gox is dead, shouldn't we have a rally?
Post by: Cluster2k on February 25, 2014, 04:07:17 AM
For a long time MtGox was the go-to exchange for the media when reporting bitcoin's price.  In the short to medium term MtGox's disappearance will hurt.  A lot.  It affects the entire credibility of bitcoin as a viable means to do business.  What business wants to conduct their transactions in a commodity that can fluctuate violently in value and have the previously major exchange disappear?  Critics of bitcoin can point to MtGox as evidence that the whole thing is a money making scam and far too unstable to be useful.

The key thing to watch is how MtGox will be wound up over the coming months and years.  Will account holders receive their bitcoins and money back?  


Title: Re: Now that Gox is dead, shouldn't we have a rally?
Post by: Edward50 on February 25, 2014, 04:07:20 AM
I always wondered how any big hedge fund etc. would invest into bitcoins without easily risking losing all of their bitcoins. I mean all it would take is someone internal to transfer out/steal the bitcoins.

I guess my concern had validity.

Anyway looks like I'm out $670 dollars that I had left on Mt Gox. Oh well..


Title: Re: Now that Gox is dead, shouldn't we have a rally?
Post by: Edward50 on February 25, 2014, 04:10:04 AM
For a long time MtGox was the go-to exchange for the media when reporting bitcoin's price.  In the short to medium term MtGox's disappearance will hurt.  A lot.  It affects the entire credibility of bitcoin as a viable means to do business.  What business wants to conduct their transactions in a commodity that can fluctuate violently in value and have the previously major exchange disappear?  Critics of bitcoin can point to MtGox as evidence that the whole thing is a money making scam and far too unstable to be useful.

The key thing to watch is how MtGox will be wound up over the coming months and years.  Will account holders receive their bitcoins and money back?  

Hey Cluster2k,  Funny how the bitcoin bulls will spin really bad news into good news. Most are still obvious in the delusional stage.


Title: Re: Now that Gox is dead, shouldn't we have a rally?
Post by: lyth0s on February 25, 2014, 04:16:19 AM
Account holders won't see their money back. However, mt gox being at $100/coin has spread really bad news about bitcoin, let alone their insolvency. Getting rid of gox all together will at first hurt the price of BTC, but then it will be able to resume growth. I have friends that are completely bitcoin "noobs" and btc being low on mt gox has scared everyone away from it. get rid of mt gox, btc can grow again.

Disclosure: Long term I've very bullish on bitcoin...


Title: Re: Now that Gox is dead, shouldn't we have a rally?
Post by: smoothie on February 25, 2014, 04:19:39 AM
One of the reason the other exchange's prices are depressed was the belief that Gox will resume withdraw, which caused cheap coins being picked up at gox to be dumped elsewhere.  Now that Gox seems to have lost everything, shouldn't we have a massive rally now that this 'phantom' dump will no longer take place.
This also means:

1) There are fewer coins than people thought there were, thus supply is reduced. All the coins believed held at Mt Gox probably didn't exist and were already in circulation.

2) People have fewer coins than they wanted to have, thus demand is increased. Everyone who thought they had coins at Mt Gox now knows they probably don't.

Both these factors should put upward pressure on the price. The downward movement is irrational. (Unless Gox is dumping Bitcoins on Bitstamp.)


This is exactly what I was thinking.

Likely this is a temporary downward pressure and as those who panic sell off (whether or not GOX) will eventually not have any more coins to sell.

Cheap coins!


Title: Re: Now that Gox is dead, shouldn't we have a rally?
Post by: smoothie on February 25, 2014, 04:21:05 AM
One of the reason the other exchange's prices are depressed was the belief that Gox will resume withdraw, which caused cheap coins being picked up at gox to be dumped elsewhere.  Now that Gox seems to have lost everything, shouldn't we have a massive rally now that this 'phantom' dump will no longer take place.
This also means:

1) There are fewer coins than people thought there were, thus supply is reduced. All the coins believed held at Mt Gox probably didn't exist and were already in circulation.

2) People have fewer coins than they wanted to have, thus demand is increased. Everyone who thought they had coins at Mt Gox now knows they probably don't.

Both these factors should put upward pressure on the price. The downward movement is irrational.


If bitcoin were not already worth 6 billion dollars, maybe I would be more aligned with your sentiment. Billions are hard to come by even today.

We also do not know the extent of the fraud, incompetence, et cetera... and the vulnerability of the current market. Only time will tell...

I think we will see a capitulation ahead as we still have lots of mining going on and people will continue to convert to fiat to pay their bills. could see $100 coins IMHO.... Bitcoin is vulnerable right now, keeping my eye on all possibilities.

Better hope another bitcoin technology vulnerability is not exposed in the next few weeks.....



The fed is printing between $60 and $80 billion of new notes a month. So no shortage there. Lots of trees to turn into FRN's.


Title: Re: Now that Gox is dead, shouldn't we have a rally?
Post by: undeadbitcoiner on February 25, 2014, 04:21:47 AM
Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt.

Abraham Lincoln

But untill how long?
By By Gox


Title: Re: Now that Gox is dead, shouldn't we have a rally?
Post by: chesthing on February 25, 2014, 04:23:06 AM
One of the reason the other exchange's prices are depressed was the belief that Gox will resume withdraw, which caused cheap coins being picked up at gox to be dumped elsewhere.  Now that Gox seems to have lost everything, shouldn't we have a massive rally now that this 'phantom' dump will no longer take place.
This also means:

1) There are fewer coins than people thought there were, thus supply is reduced. All the coins believed held at Mt Gox probably didn't exist and were already in circulation.

2) People have fewer coins than they wanted to have, thus demand is increased. Everyone who thought they had coins at Mt Gox now knows they probably don't.

Both these factors should put upward pressure on the price. The downward movement is irrational. (Unless Gox is dumping Bitcoins on Bitstamp.)


This is exactly what I was thinking.

Likely this is a temporary downward pressure and as those who panic sell off (whether or not GOX) will eventually not have any more coins to sell.

Cheap coins!
So you buying right now or waiting for a lower price?


Title: Re: Now that Gox is dead, shouldn't we have a rally?
Post by: SlidingHorn on February 25, 2014, 04:24:44 AM
Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt.

Abraham Lincoln

But untill how long?
By By Gox

I believe it was Twain, but truth, no less...


Title: Re: Now that Gox is dead, shouldn't we have a rally?
Post by: smoothie on February 25, 2014, 04:25:13 AM
For a long time MtGox was the go-to exchange for the media when reporting bitcoin's price.  In the short to medium term MtGox's disappearance will hurt.  A lot.  It affects the entire credibility of bitcoin as a viable means to do business.  What business wants to conduct their transactions in a commodity that can fluctuate violently in value and have the previously major exchange disappear?  Critics of bitcoin can point to MtGox as evidence that the whole thing is a money making scam and far too unstable to be useful.

The key thing to watch is how MtGox will be wound up over the coming months and years.  Will account holders receive their bitcoins and money back?  

Hey Cluster2k,  Funny how the bitcoin bulls will spin really bad news into good news. Most are still obvious in the delusional stage.

Yup us bulls are delusional when price went from $65 to $1200.

We will also be delusional to you when price goes from $~350 to $5000 this year. :P


Title: Re: Now that Gox is dead, shouldn't we have a rally?
Post by: smoothie on February 25, 2014, 04:26:52 AM
I always wondered how any big hedge fund etc. would invest into bitcoins without easily risking losing all of their bitcoins. I mean all it would take is someone internal to transfer out/steal the bitcoins.

I guess my concern had validity.

Anyway looks like I'm out $670 dollars that I had left on Mt Gox. Oh well..

Good job.  lol

$0 and 0 BTC for me there.



Title: Re: Now that Gox is dead, shouldn't we have a rally?
Post by: Bobsurplus on February 25, 2014, 04:28:16 AM
The price has to go down more, its just human behavior. People on the east coast will wake up tomorrow morning and realize all their hopes and dreams of one day becoming mega rich has gone down the drain. They lost their life savings and cant pay the bills anymore. Some I'm sure were even borrowing money from the banks to cover the money they had stuck in the goxblackhole.

It will be all over ever news station all day tomorrow. People will lose faith in bitcoin and sell what ever they have left..

I see the price hitting $250-$300 and staying there for a bit before bouncing back closer the end of the year.


Title: Re: Now that Gox is dead, shouldn't we have a rally?
Post by: nick32768 on February 25, 2014, 04:28:25 AM
I expect another sharp decrease when the Europeans will wake up (it's 5:28 AM)

Nick.



Title: Re: Now that Gox is dead, shouldn't we have a rally?
Post by: Bobsurplus on February 25, 2014, 04:29:00 AM
For a long time MtGox was the go-to exchange for the media when reporting bitcoin's price.  In the short to medium term MtGox's disappearance will hurt.  A lot.  It affects the entire credibility of bitcoin as a viable means to do business.  What business wants to conduct their transactions in a commodity that can fluctuate violently in value and have the previously major exchange disappear?  Critics of bitcoin can point to MtGox as evidence that the whole thing is a money making scam and far too unstable to be useful.

The key thing to watch is how MtGox will be wound up over the coming months and years.  Will account holders receive their bitcoins and money back?  

Hey Cluster2k,  Funny how the bitcoin bulls will spin really bad news into good news. Most are still obvious in the delusional stage.

Yup us bulls are delusional when price went from $65 to $1200.

We will also be delusional to you when price goes from $~350 to $5000 this year. :P

Not this year and I`m a megabull.


Title: Re: Now that Gox is dead, shouldn't we have a rally?
Post by: ruletheworld on February 25, 2014, 04:34:26 AM
No? It turns out that one of the most entrenched and well known Bitcoin vendors was a large fraud, casting the doubt of "ponzi" on all of Bitcoin as a whole. Most people didn't know that MtGox was a problem, and now they will hear in the media that "bitcoin==fraud".  Why would it go up?
The 'most people' who will think this aren't the people who buy and sell bitcoins.
Touche.
Most people involved with Bitcoin know that MtGox was a problem, not Bitcoin.


Title: Re: Now that Gox is dead, shouldn't we have a rally?
Post by: EuroTrash on February 25, 2014, 04:35:34 AM
Agreed downward move is irrational but think of bad publicity ponzi blablabla... The market could stay irrational for weeks before stabilizing then turning irrational upwards.

(some Europeans like me are wide awake on a eventful night like this one, and will no doubt have a pretty f*cked day at work)


Title: Re: Now that Gox is dead, shouldn't we have a rally?
Post by: Edward50 on February 25, 2014, 04:38:23 AM
Guys this is pretty bad news about Mt Gox.

Who can really trust any exchange at this point?

It makes me want to pull the bulk of my money which is on CampBX right now after losing money on Mt. Gox.

I can imagine what this will do to other people. They surely will not want to risk much money anymore, especially money needed for bitcoin to go to 10,000 that most of you think it will go there.

I just don't see the price staying as high as it is, which at $500 is still a very high price.

If any of you are still sitting on bitcoins, I would recommend to pull them out ASAP and sit out. It is almost a sure bet to go lower at this point.


Title: Re: Now that Gox is dead, shouldn't we have a rally?
Post by: MrPiggles on February 25, 2014, 04:40:16 AM
I put 8 on LBC @ $500 each and sold 2 within mins.

Pulled the other 6. there is still massive demand at $500 i'm surprised.

Dunno if I should just flog the lot and buy a bit lower.



Title: Re: Now that Gox is dead, shouldn't we have a rally?
Post by: Patel on February 25, 2014, 04:40:27 AM
Guys this is pretty bad news about Mt Gox.

Who can really trust any exchange at this point?

It makes me want to pull the bulk of my money which is on CampBX right now after losing money on Mt. Gox.

I can imagine what this will do to other people. They surely will not want to risk much money anymore, especially money needed for bitcoin to go to 10,000 that most of you think it will go there.

I just don't see the price staying as high as it is, which at $500 is still a very high price.

If any of you are still sitting on bitcoins, I would recommend to pull them out ASAP and sit out. It is almost a sure bet to go lower at this point.

Good luck with that, Campbx is almost as bad as Gox.


Title: Re: Now that Gox is dead, shouldn't we have a rally?
Post by: YipYip on February 25, 2014, 04:49:24 AM
One of the reason the other exchange's prices are depressed was the belief that Gox will resume withdraw, which caused cheap coins being picked up at gox to be dumped elsewhere.  Now that Gox seems to have lost everything, shouldn't we have a massive rally now that this 'phantom' dump will no longer take place.
This also means:

1) There are fewer coins than people thought there were, thus supply is reduced. All the coins believed held at Mt Gox probably didn't exist and were already in circulation.

2) People have fewer coins than they wanted to have, thus demand is increased. Everyone who thought they had coins at Mt Gox now knows they probably don't.

Both these factors should put upward pressure on the price. The downward movement is irrational. (Unless Gox is dumping Bitcoins on Bitstamp.)


This is exactly what I was thinking.

Likely this is a temporary downward pressure and as those who panic sell off (whether or not GOX) will eventually not have any more coins to sell.

Cheap coins!
So you buying right now or waiting for a lower price?

Lets wait for the bottom


Title: Re: Now that Gox is dead, shouldn't we have a rally?
Post by: YipYip on February 25, 2014, 04:51:52 AM
blah blah blah

FEAR FEAR FEAR....cheap coinz

Its the limbo dance of how low will she go .... I have a trigger on the buy waiting for capitulation :D


Title: Re: Now that Gox is dead, shouldn't we have a rally?
Post by: glendall on February 25, 2014, 05:09:58 AM
I don't know about a rally, but a party could be in order for the downfall of Gox. I really, really, really hope it is the last time they cause a crash. I'll be stoked if they never recover and close up shop.


Title: Re: Now that Gox is dead, shouldn't we have a rally?
Post by: kireinaha on February 25, 2014, 05:36:43 AM
investor confidence means little in this market. it was mere hours ago that the majority of people on this forum were making excuses for mtgox and dismissing every.single.red.flag emitting from that exchange on a daily basis. this is going to be a wake up call to some, sure, but it will be forgotten soon.

don't forget, we had a rally up to $650 just last weekend because of some rumors that were obvious bullshit. so it doesn't take much.


Title: Re: Now that Gox is dead, shouldn't we have a rally?
Post by: Obi-Wan Coinobi on February 25, 2014, 05:51:28 AM
blah blah blah

FEAR FEAR FEAR....cheap coinz

Its the limbo dance of how low will she go .... I have a trigger on the buy waiting for capitulation :D

Well? You pull the trigger yet or what?


Title: Re: Now that Gox is dead, shouldn't we have a rally?
Post by: smoothie on February 25, 2014, 05:56:27 AM
Guys this is pretty bad news about Mt Gox.

Who can really trust any exchange at this point?

It makes me want to pull the bulk of my money which is on CampBX right now after losing money on Mt. Gox.

I can imagine what this will do to other people. They surely will not want to risk much money anymore, especially money needed for bitcoin to go to 10,000 that most of you think it will go there.

I just don't see the price staying as high as it is, which at $500 is still a very high price.

If any of you are still sitting on bitcoins, I would recommend to pull them out ASAP and sit out. It is almost a sure bet to go lower at this point.

I have moved everything off of all exchanges I use.

No need to trade right now. Just gonna keep up with the news and watch the fireworks later this year.


Title: Re: Now that Gox is dead, shouldn't we have a rally?
Post by: dynodog on February 25, 2014, 06:00:12 AM
Yeah, a rally bc there are going to be so many new bitcoin adopters getting on board now that a bunch of people have been determined to be defrauded out of a ton of money.  Are you for real?  

People don't understand bitcoin's security.  All they know is people got screwed by a major exchange.  you think people are going to start researching exchanges and the bitcoin protocol?  F**k no.  Owning bitcoin is not that important to potential new adopters.  They will hear this news, and run for the hills.  The last thing they are going to do is send money to slovenia or a couple of anonymous russian dudes.  It simply becomes too risky for the new potential investor.  

 


Title: Re: Now that Gox is dead, shouldn't we have a rally?
Post by: lyth0s on February 25, 2014, 06:19:59 AM
Guys this is pretty bad news about Mt Gox.

Who can really trust any exchange at this point?

It makes me want to pull the bulk of my money which is on CampBX right now after losing money on Mt. Gox.

I can imagine what this will do to other people. They surely will not want to risk much money anymore, especially money needed for bitcoin to go to 10,000 that most of you think it will go there.

I just don't see the price staying as high as it is, which at $500 is still a very high price.

If any of you are still sitting on bitcoins, I would recommend to pull them out ASAP and sit out. It is almost a sure bet to go lower at this point.

You should never keep "the bulk" of your coins on an exchange...


Title: Re: Now that Gox is dead, shouldn't we have a rally?
Post by: favelle75 on February 25, 2014, 06:24:31 AM
Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt.

Abraham Lincoln

But untill how long?
By By Gox

I believe it was Twain, but truth, no less...

Lincoln.


Title: Re: Now that Gox is dead, shouldn't we have a rally?
Post by: Spekulatius on February 26, 2014, 12:34:00 AM
I expect some BTC businesses to be struck hard by this. Some may have had the bulk of their capital in MtGox, probably the smaller ones that dont check news too often or have an old account with them. But even big ones that distribute their holdings accross exchanges will loose 20-30% by this.Does anybody know which companies have substantial holdings at Gox?


Title: Re: Now that Gox is dead, shouldn't we have a rally?
Post by: ruletheworld on February 26, 2014, 01:29:02 AM
I expect some BTC businesses to be struck hard by this. Some may have had the bulk of their capital in MtGox, probably the smaller ones that dont check news too often or have an old account with them. But even big ones that distribute their holdings accross exchanges will loose 20-30% by this.Does anybody know which companies have substantial holdings at Gox?
Why would BTC businesses have a substantial holding in MtGox?
1. If you want immediate conversion to fiat, they mostly use BitPay or Coinbase, not Gox
2. If they want to expense in BTC, they'll probably hold coins themselves e.g. blockchain.info where you control the private keys

Also, withdrawals were delayed for a long time, hopefully most businesses wouldn't want to live with that and moved their funds out, if at all they were thinking otherwise.