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Alternate cryptocurrencies => Mining (Altcoins) => Topic started by: zeric on August 29, 2018, 10:54:06 PM



Title: Advice needed: 80k USD mining adventure
Post by: zeric on August 29, 2018, 10:54:06 PM
Hello dear fellow miners!

Disclaimer: This post does not belong completely in The Altcoin nor in the BTC mining sub forum, if you are a moderator, feel free to move the thread as you feel appropriate.

I have been small home GPU-miner since the beginning of the year, and have spend hundreds and hundreds of hours on research. Unfortunately I dont really have anyone to spar with. I am hoping some of the pros here on bitcointalk might help point me in the right direction.

The situation:
I recently recieved a 80k USD investment to expand my small home mining farm operation. While i might use some of the cash on investment in cryptos the majority is expected to go into mining. Please keep this in mind before you type BUY BTC. 

I have a cheap (300 usd/month) facility with up 300 amps at 220v. I pay around 0.055 usd/kwh).

I am almost done setting up the place with airflow, security, network and the works.

Initially I was planning on a 50/50 GPU/ASIC split, but as the marked looks a full ASIC focus seems the obvious choice to me.

The problem:

What to buy?
I am thinking I will start off with:

2 x Antminer Z9
1 x Innosilicon A9 (would focus more on these if it wasn't for all the bad things i read about Innosilicon)
1 x Pangolin Whatsminer DCR (november is a long time away though)
5 x Whatsminer M 10.

Which is about 25k USD give or take.

Then hold on to the remainder of the cash for a few months, waiting for new hardware to surface. The Avalon A9 seems as a good option, depending on pricing.

What do you guys think? Any feedback is much appreciated !


Title: Re: Advice needed: 80k USD mining adventure
Post by: adaseb on August 30, 2018, 12:01:29 AM
Hello dear fellow miners!

Disclaimer: This post does not belong completely in The Altcoin nor in the BTC mining sub forum, if you are a moderator, feel free to move the thread as you feel appropriate.

I have been small home GPU-miner since the beginning of the year, and have spend hundreds and hundreds of hours on research. Unfortunately I dont really have anyone to spar with. I am hoping some of the pros here on bitcointalk might help point me in the right direction.

The situation:
I recently recieved a 80k USD investment to expand my small home mining farm operation. While i might use some of the cash on investment in cryptos the majority is expected to go into mining. Please keep this in mind before you type BUY BTC. 

I have a cheap (300 usd/month) facility with up 300 amps at 220v. I pay around 0.055 usd/kwh).

I am almost done setting up the place with airflow, security, network and the works.

Initially I was planning on a 50/50 GPU/ASIC split, but as the marked looks a full ASIC focus seems the obvious choice to me.

The problem:

What to buy?
I am thinking I will start off with:

2 x Antminer Z9
1 x Innosilicon A9 (would focus more on these if it wasn't for all the bad things i read about Innosilicon)
1 x Pangolin Whatsminer DCR (november is a long time away though)
5 x Whatsminer M 10.

Which is about 25k USD give or take.

Then hold on to the remainder of the cash for a few months, waiting for new hardware to surface. The Avalon A9 seems as a good option, depending on pricing.

What do you guys think? Any feedback is much appreciated !

Probably not the advice you want to hear but you should just buy some Bitcoins directly along with some promising alts like LTC, ETH, XMR, XRP, etc.

Because there is a crazy surplus of miners out there, even with these low prices the difficulties are still sky-rocketing and even with your cheap power, eventually you will be reaching break-even point levels.



Title: Re: Advice needed: 80k USD mining adventure
Post by: Jdope on August 30, 2018, 12:58:33 AM
If i were you, i'd hold back a little and buy FPGAs, they are currently crazy expensive (3.5k i think) but they have good density ($/W and $/space).

They currently work well on very few algorithms but the software should be coming soon, research the idea further.


Title: Re: Advice needed: 80k USD mining adventure
Post by: Metroid on August 30, 2018, 02:56:38 AM
Probably not the advice you want to hear but you should just buy some Bitcoins directly along with some promising alts like LTC, ETH, XMR, XRP, etc.

Because there is a crazy surplus of miners out there, even with these low prices the difficulties are still sky-rocketing and even with your cheap power, eventually you will be reaching break-even point levels.



Most of them are blind cause they think their cheap power will save them from themselves, they cant accept the truth that buying coins and wait is better, his 80k usd could become 400k in few months, if he buys mining equipment he will never get even 100% in a year even if coins they are mining increase a lot.


Title: Re: Advice needed: 80k USD mining adventure
Post by: lunobird on August 30, 2018, 03:34:22 AM
I say go 50/50

40k buy coins and 40k mining rigs. That's taking a middle path. If we dump more your glad you spent the money on rigs. If we go up higher your glad you bought coins.

The bear trend reversal has not been confirmed yet. Still in a bear market.


Title: Re: Advice needed: 80k USD mining adventure
Post by: Marvell2 on August 30, 2018, 03:34:48 AM
If i were you, i'd hold back a little and buy FPGAs, they are currently crazy expensive (3.5k i think) but they have good density ($/W and $/space).

They currently work well on very few algorithms but the software should be coming soon, research the idea further.

Fpgas are too new to risk your money on.  Right now
if i was starting a farm it would be z9s , and then half into crypto
40k of z9s 40k crypto


Title: Re: Advice needed: 80k USD mining adventure
Post by: Awesomus Maximus on August 30, 2018, 04:43:27 AM
What to buy?
Whatever you choose to buy from ASIC equipment you should make sure that you return the major part of your investment in the first 6 month or so. ASIC are known to quickly lose from their profitability, so the point is to buy new hardware that will pay off quickly.


Title: Re: Advice needed: 80k USD mining adventure
Post by: Marvell2 on August 30, 2018, 06:55:48 AM
What to buy?
Whatever you choose to buy from ASIC equipment you should make sure that you return the major part of your investment in the first 6 month or so. ASIC are known to quickly lose from their profitability, so the point is to buy new hardware that will pay off quickly.

Yeh personally Id never buy another asic from bitmain at least,
but right now the z9 is the only one worth buying


Title: Re: Advice needed: 80k USD mining adventure
Post by: jillscarbrough on August 30, 2018, 09:47:09 AM
yes for now (Z9) but every bitmain product doesn't have long-term mining, they only offer low power consumption then you wait 5 months later, then their product will only be used as a display.


Title: Re: Advice needed: 80k USD mining adventure
Post by: [DnA] on August 30, 2018, 10:44:58 AM
I have a cheap (300 usd/month) facility with up 300 amps at 220v. I pay around 0.055 usd/kwh).

You were lucky, you got the fund and had cheap electricity cost, even while people say that's mean nothing, but at least you have it. Between buy the coins directly and buy mining stuff, both have their own risk. You were doing the right thing with splitting the fund (Don't Put All your Eggs in One Basket). As above said, you need to concern on capital recovery as your priority.
 
I am thinking I will start off with:

2 x Antminer Z9
1 x Innosilicon A9 (would focus more on these if it wasn't for all the bad things i read about Innosilicon)
1 x Pangolin Whatsminer DCR (november is a long time away though)
5 x Whatsminer M 10.

Then about the mining tools that on your plan, I have no idea about it, since my last ASICs was on the museum four years ago.  :D

Initially I was planning on a 50/50 GPU/ASIC split, but as the marked looks a full ASIC focus seems the obvious choice to me.

But, if you are talking about GPUs, I on it currently.
I'm also a GPUs miner (home miner), my electricity cost is three times of yours. My daily profit, opps..seems like will be better to say, my average monthly profits are 200% of the electricity + operational cost (not bad  :-*). So, when I need to pay the electricity+operational cost for $1, I still keep $2 as my profits (nowadays). I can add some SC of my current mining process, but that's not good for me.  ;D


Title: Re: Advice needed: 80k USD mining adventure
Post by: RentGPU on August 30, 2018, 11:04:09 AM
Yea, you should invest all your money on mining equipment because it's very profitable now and the difficulty is very low , it's a good time to jump in , i just gave you what you want to hear , go a head do what you want to do don't ask here because ppl here will say the truth not the lies you would like to hear.
I see ppl like you losing money everyday because they just want to do what they want to do without listening even if they pretend they are listening
Good luck


Title: Re: Advice needed: 80k USD mining adventure
Post by: nc50lc on August 30, 2018, 11:32:30 AM
-snip-
But what about this?:
I am almost done setting up the place with airflow, security, network and the works.

What to buy?
I am thinking I will start off with:

2 x Antminer Z9
1 x Innosilicon A9 (would focus more on these if it wasn't for all the bad things i read about Innosilicon)
1 x Pangolin Whatsminer DCR (november is a long time away though)
5 x Whatsminer M 10.

Which is about 25k USD give or take.
If you're going for ASICs, do not buy multiple brands and models, research for the one that has the highest profitability but not the ones that targets any "CPU-mining" & newly developed (including suspicious) algorithms .

The advantages of that are easier maintenance and "more efficient mining" of the coin of your choice.
That way, it will be easier to reach the capital return and even ROI in a shorter period of time, the other way around IMO have more disadvantages.
But if you want to expand and add diversity, your original plan (Add GPU Miners) can still be applied.

Today's a risky season for miners, it's up to you.


Title: Re: Advice needed: 80k USD mining adventure
Post by: ciprianpt on August 30, 2018, 12:58:31 PM
1. I'd recommend to stay away from ASICs completely and here is why: https://1stminingrig.com/asic-vs-gpu-mining-profitability-in-bear-markets/

2. If you want a mining farm for long term you should go with GPU or wait for more data about FPGAs.

3. You can also try to split your investment 50% mining hardware (currently prices for gpus went down a lot) / 50% coin acquisition (because market is very low), or 75%/25%, your choice!

you should also do a research about masternodes

My best advice here is to stay away from ASICs, and if you really want to try to see how it goes then do not invest more than 10%.


Title: Re: Advice needed: 80k USD mining adventure
Post by: chup on August 30, 2018, 03:02:12 PM
I'd offer buying second hand 1080ti GPU rigs for 400-450$ per GPU for half of the investment.
For second half.... take them to cryptoexchanges and take the wild buy/sell ride.
Well, You asked for adventure.  ::)


Title: Re: Advice needed: 80k USD mining adventure
Post by: Piskeante on August 30, 2018, 03:18:56 PM
big error. the situation right now IS NOT FOR MINING PURPOSES.

As been said, better to buy the coins.


Title: Re: Advice needed: 80k USD mining adventure
Post by: vlad230 on August 30, 2018, 03:24:18 PM
OP, I'll try to be on topic and not direct you to buy coins with the money :D

The question here, which I hope you already calculated, is have you turned a profit? If you have, that's good, you know what you're doing.  ;)

Since you were saying you have started mining with GPUs at the beginning of the year, you probably know already that ASICs are not like GPUs in the sense that they will probably become obsolete (or how these guys here want to call them: "door stoppers"  :D ) and you won't be able to use them anymore for mining once the algorithm for your target coins changes.
In some cases, ASIC manufacturers announce their new ASICs when the most profitable coin states that it will change the algorithm to be ASIC resistant (see the Monero & Baikal case study).

If I were you, I would research more in the FPGA market rather than ASICs. FPGAs can be programmed to work even if the algorithm changes but you won't have the same hashing power compared to what the ASICs have.

Hope this helps ;)


Title: Re: Advice needed: 80k USD mining adventure
Post by: Mattthev on August 30, 2018, 05:09:37 PM
You can buy some VEGAs, they are still very good and also currently pretty cheap.
Or some cheap RX 4xx/5xx they are very cheap, but ROI is still long with current prices.
You can try mine RYO, which is good with VEGAs and other 8GB AMDs, dev team is very skilled (dev team from XMR-STAK miner) and you can mine a lot of it now with expectation for better prices hopefully soon.


Title: Re: Advice needed: 80k USD mining adventure
Post by: Mastker on August 30, 2018, 05:27:51 PM
You can buy some VEGAs, they are still very good and also currently pretty cheap.
Or some cheap RX 4xx/5xx they are very cheap, but ROI is still long with current prices.
You can try mine RYO, which is good with VEGAs and other 8GB AMDs, dev team is very skilled (dev team from XMR-STAK miner) and you can mine a lot of it now with expectation for better prices hopefully soon.

Vega is quite good for new cryptonight algorithms.


Title: Re: Advice needed: 80k USD mining adventure
Post by: crairezx20 on August 30, 2018, 05:31:00 PM
I suggest you this https://www.asicminervalue.com/ if what is hardware is more profitable these days.
if you are in hurry this Innosilicon A9 ZMaster and this Bitmain Antminer Z9 will be a good option because it is more profitable than the other miners so if the difficulty increases the profitability decrease so you must choose if what hardware is more profitable so that you can make profit before the difficulty become higher and the coin become unprofitable.

GPU mining is also a good alternative if you live in Venezuela or any country with a lower electricity rate you can make a good profit.


Title: Re: Advice needed: 80k USD mining adventure
Post by: swogerino on August 30, 2018, 05:47:04 PM
I don't know where you are located but if you have 80k to invest it would be best to buy a small house by adding another small amount of money , in US a good small house cost about 150k depending on the state you are located.

If you are firm on your decision and you want to go with a mining adventure, my advice would be to buy 50% of the money , your favourite miners and the rest of money to buy bitcoin,ethereum,litecoin and zcash, the top 4 major coins and hold.


Title: Re: Advice needed: 80k USD mining adventure
Post by: BattleZeo on August 30, 2018, 06:12:12 PM
I recommend waiting for s11 to be released from Bitmine. Then there is the opportunity to get a good profit from mining.


Title: Re: Advice needed: 80k USD mining adventure
Post by: zeric on August 30, 2018, 06:20:18 PM
Thank you for all your replies. They are much appreciated!

I live in europe, and GPU prices in my country are still quite high (around 750 usd for a vega 56 or 350 usd for a rx 580 8gb) which is part of the reason why ASICs seems the better choice.


I don't know where you are located but if you have 80k to invest it would be best to buy a small house by adding another small amount of money , in US a good small house cost about 150k depending on the state you are located.

If you are firm on your decision and you want to go with a mining adventure, my advice would be to buy 50% of the money , your favourite miners and the rest of money to buy bitcoin,ethereum,litecoin and zcash, the top 4 major coins and hold.

A house here would be at least 300k usd, with a maximum of 40 amps.. so buying isnt really an option im afraid. At least i have cheap rent :)

OP, I'll try to be on topic and not direct you to buy coins with the money :D

The question here, which I hope you already calculated, is have you turned a profit? If you have, that's good, you know what you're doing.  ;)

Since you were saying you have started mining with GPUs at the beginning of the year, you probably know already that ASICs are not like GPUs in the sense that they will probably become obsolete (or how these guys here want to call them: "door stoppers"  :D ) and you won't be able to use them anymore for mining once the algorithm for your target coins changes.
In some cases, ASIC manufacturers announce their new ASICs when the most profitable coin states that it will change the algorithm to be ASIC resistant (see the Monero & Baikal case study).

If I were you, I would research more in the FPGA market rather than ASICs. FPGAs can be programmed to work even if the algorithm changes but you won't have the same hashing power compared to what the ASICs have.

Hope this helps ;)

I did turn a decent profit. Got on the Raven wave quite early :)
I do know the problem with asics turning into heavy paper weights after a while. Expensive GPU prices is part of what pushes me towards asics though, see above.


-snip-
But what about this?:
I am almost done setting up the place with airflow, security, network and the works.

What to buy?
I am thinking I will start off with:

2 x Antminer Z9
1 x Innosilicon A9 (would focus more on these if it wasn't for all the bad things i read about Innosilicon)
1 x Pangolin Whatsminer DCR (november is a long time away though)
5 x Whatsminer M 10.

Which is about 25k USD give or take.
If you're going for ASICs, do not buy multiple brands and models, research for the one that has the highest profitability but not the ones that targets any "CPU-mining" & newly developed (including suspicious) algorithms .

The advantages of that are easier maintenance and "more efficient mining" of the coin of your choice.
That way, it will be easier to reach the capital return and even ROI in a shorter period of time, the other way around IMO have more disadvantages.
But if you want to expand and add diversity, your original plan (Add GPU Miners) can still be applied.

Today's a risky season for miners, it's up to you.

Could you elaborate on this? I get the maintenance part, but more efficient mining? how so?


FPGAs... I dont feel comfortable jumping into this. My tech skills are decent but nowhere near what it looks like is needed. Perhaps in time when more algos are opened up.

I'll meet with my investor this weekend and see how he feels about a split scenario.

EDIT to fix quote error.


Title: Re: Advice needed: 80k USD mining adventure
Post by: revenant2017 on August 30, 2018, 06:30:11 PM
It won't be that profitable in long term if you start mining now. It's already too late and the difficulty continues to rise. I'd say use it to buy some coins and hold it.


Title: Re: Advice needed: 80k USD mining adventure
Post by: fjzappA on August 30, 2018, 07:31:00 PM
So many unknowns, so much is un-knowable.
- I was in your exact position earlier this year.  I had rented 1000 Square feet in Texas, and had 100KW of 3-phase power available immediately and plans for more.
- As crypto dropped, I abandoned my plans, started selling my gear (still have a bunch) and shut down the facility. 
- I am converting cash into crypto rather than rent, and mining at home only, using only Z9-mini's.  All GPUs are shut down, and all S9's are shut down.

So what do we know?
- Hash rate of every worthwhile coin is the one thing that is actually mooning.
- Bitmain prices their products for ~1 year ROI, maybe a bit less.  In my experience, Antminer S-series will pay back 1X in a year, and never pay another 1X because of hashrate growth.
- Rising value of Crypto to Fiat, makes all of the above math look better than if it stays flat.
- Of course something new is coming from Bitmain.  S9 series is more than 2 years old.  It's time.

What can we do?
- Assume crypto is going to moon.  Buy Crypto because you can't mine crypto as fast as you can buy crypto.
- Assume crypto will drop.  Sell what you have and be done with it.
- Assume crypto will be flat.  Maybe mine if your costs are low enough, but need to recognize that you're in a declining return over time because of hashrate growth.

What should you do?  Be careful.  Even at 5.5 cents/kWh, be aware you're competing with people in China and other parts of the world who are paying much less or even not paying for their power. 



Title: Re: Advice needed: 80k USD mining adventure
Post by: stomachgrowls on August 30, 2018, 07:57:12 PM
Yea, you should invest all your money on mining equipment because it's very profitable now and the difficulty is very low , it's a good time to jump in , i just gave you what you want to hear , go a head do what you want to do don't ask here because ppl here will say the truth not the lies you would like to hear.
I see ppl like you losing money everyday because they just want to do what they want to do without listening even if they pretend they are listening
Good luck
On most cases this would really be the insight of OP itself which he do really expect to have positive feedback on what hes trying to invest on here. Capital? It is indeed enough to start your own mining rig but profitability wise? Then most of us do have knowledge will have the same opinion and feedbacks which is "Non-profitable" nowadays and basing on the rent plus its current electricity cost then he would able to find out that hes totally wasting up his own time.


Title: Re: Advice needed: 80k USD mining adventure
Post by: grinbuck on August 30, 2018, 09:19:57 PM
Yea, you should invest all your money on mining equipment because it's very profitable now and the difficulty is very low , it's a good time to jump in , i just gave you what you want to hear , go a head do what you want to do don't ask here because ppl here will say the truth not the lies you would like to hear.
I see ppl like you losing money everyday because they just want to do what they want to do without listening even if they pretend they are listening
Good luck
On most cases this would really be the insight of OP itself which he do really expect to have positive feedback on what hes trying to invest on here. Capital? It is indeed enough to start your own mining rig but profitability wise? Then most of us do have knowledge will have the same opinion and feedbacks which is "Non-profitable" nowadays and basing on the rent plus its current electricity cost then he would able to find out that hes totally wasting up his own time.

Without going into any altercations or arguments, I'd like to respectfully understand more about why everyone here is against mining.

1) Profitability is down right now yes... but as long as you have a little less than $0.10/KWh electricity rate, as of now it's profitable to mine - even if only by a small margin. (Z9 and their variants are an exception). If you're operating as a business, you'd likely be eligible for various deductions that improve your bottom line. This is the current scenario.
2) Difficulty increases for everyone. Constantly. That's a fact. No arguments here. Over time the number of coins you mine will reduce.
3) I'm bullish on crypto.
4) I can afford to hold the coins I mine. i.e. I can pay for the power I use for the foreseeable future (1 year) without selling any of my holding.
5) If the crypto market collapses, I shut down my business. Declare bankruptcy. That's not a scenario I'm willing to entertain. Every business has risks. I'm in this because I expect the market to rise.
6) If the market rises, despite the lower number of coins mined, I will probably still be profitable. Plus the coins I've mined earlier and held on to at a lower difficulty will add to my bottomline.
7) If I have an intelligent split (50-50 in my case) between mining and buying coins - I'm at a win-win given the above information - the market recovers and I make a win on my investment. Mining profitability resumes and I make a win on the coins mined WITH future income intact because no matter how little I mine, mining can only survive so long as there is some monetary benefit to mining. Therefore total hashrate will reduce when losses increase significantly (kind of what's happening with litecoin now). I also have a cushion since a lot of places in the world have a much higher electricity rate than me.
8) I have the equipment to sell - wont get too much for asics, more for gpu's. But point is that as long as I can keep reinvesting profits and upgrading constantly, a point will come when I'll be able to pay for equipment with previously earned profit. So mining as a business, given some common sense should pay off in the long run.

Sorry for the numbered list. Just jotted them down as they struck me.

Constructive feedback anyone?




Title: Re: Advice needed: 80k USD mining adventure
Post by: fjzappA on August 30, 2018, 11:36:44 PM
Constructive feedback anyone?

Good list, even if it is numbered.

The only thing I would add is to do the math on mining.  Straight up power cost vs. coins produced, independent of capital invested.  If you can buy coins cheaper with electricity, then mine.  If you cannot, then invest in coins.  If you're mining for short term profit, then you're in a different game than me.

I've mined off and on since 2013.  Never sold a coin.  Converted to other coins, or traded coins for miners, but money goes in and never comes out.  Coins for miners is probably one of the worst investments I ever made.  If I had bought coins with fiat and used that for miners, then it would have been a better deal. 

Hindsight is a fun game.  Especially in this market.


Title: Re: Advice needed: 80k USD mining adventure
Post by: Metroid on August 30, 2018, 11:50:03 PM
So many unknowns, so much is un-knowable.
- I was in your exact position earlier this year.  I had rented 1000 Square feet in Texas, and had 100KW of 3-phase power available immediately and plans for more.
- As crypto dropped, I abandoned my plans, started selling my gear (still have a bunch) and shut down the facility.  
- I am converting cash into crypto rather than rent, and mining at home only, using only Z9-mini's.  All GPUs are shut down, and all S9's are shut down.

So what do we know?
- Hash rate of every worthwhile coin is the one thing that is actually mooning.
- Bitmain prices their products for ~1 year ROI, maybe a bit less.  In my experience, Antminer S-series will pay back 1X in a year, and never pay another 1X because of hashrate growth.
- Rising value of Crypto to Fiat, makes all of the above math look better than if it stays flat.
- Of course something new is coming from Bitmain.  S9 series is more than 2 years old.  It's time.

What can we do?
- Assume crypto is going to moon.  Buy Crypto because you can't mine crypto as fast as you can buy crypto.
- Assume crypto will drop.  Sell what you have and be done with it.
- Assume crypto will be flat.  Maybe mine if your costs are low enough, but need to recognize that you're in a declining return over time because of hashrate growth.

What should you do?  Be careful.  Even at 5.5 cents/kWh, be aware you're competing with people in China and other parts of the world who are paying much less or even not paying for their power.  



This is the best advice so far in my opinion, this person knows what is the right thing to do in most cases, merit deserved.


Title: Re: Advice needed: 80k USD mining adventure
Post by: whitesites on August 31, 2018, 03:11:41 AM
Build 15 Rigs with 8 x 1080 ti each.
Then go to church and pray that Bitcoin suddenly adopts an Anti-ASIC stance on mining.





Title: Re: Advice needed: 80k USD mining adventure
Post by: lunobird on August 31, 2018, 04:34:02 AM
Yea, you should invest all your money on mining equipment because it's very profitable now and the difficulty is very low , it's a good time to jump in , i just gave you what you want to hear , go a head do what you want to do don't ask here because ppl here will say the truth not the lies you would like to hear.
I see ppl like you losing money everyday because they just want to do what they want to do without listening even if they pretend they are listening
Good luck
On most cases this would really be the insight of OP itself which he do really expect to have positive feedback on what hes trying to invest on here. Capital? It is indeed enough to start your own mining rig but profitability wise? Then most of us do have knowledge will have the same opinion and feedbacks which is "Non-profitable" nowadays and basing on the rent plus its current electricity cost then he would able to find out that hes totally wasting up his own time.

Without going into any altercations or arguments, I'd like to respectfully understand more about why everyone here is against mining.

1) Profitability is down right now yes... but as long as you have a little less than $0.10/KWh electricity rate, as of now it's profitable to mine - even if only by a small margin. (Z9 and their variants are an exception). If you're operating as a business, you'd likely be eligible for various deductions that improve your bottom line. This is the current scenario.
2) Difficulty increases for everyone. Constantly. That's a fact. No arguments here. Over time the number of coins you mine will reduce.
3) I'm bullish on crypto.
4) I can afford to hold the coins I mine. i.e. I can pay for the power I use for the foreseeable future (1 year) without selling any of my holding.
5) If the crypto market collapses, I shut down my business. Declare bankruptcy. That's not a scenario I'm willing to entertain. Every business has risks. I'm in this because I expect the market to rise.
6) If the market rises, despite the lower number of coins mined, I will probably still be profitable. Plus the coins I've mined earlier and held on to at a lower difficulty will add to my bottomline.
7) If I have an intelligent split (50-50 in my case) between mining and buying coins - I'm at a win-win given the above information - the market recovers and I make a win on my investment. Mining profitability resumes and I make a win on the coins mined WITH future income intact because no matter how little I mine, mining can only survive so long as there is some monetary benefit to mining. Therefore total hashrate will reduce when losses increase significantly (kind of what's happening with litecoin now). I also have a cushion since a lot of places in the world have a much higher electricity rate than me.
8) I have the equipment to sell - wont get too much for asics, more for gpu's. But point is that as long as I can keep reinvesting profits and upgrading constantly, a point will come when I'll be able to pay for equipment with previously earned profit. So mining as a business, given some common sense should pay off in the long run.

Sorry for the numbered list. Just jotted them down as they struck me.

Constructive feedback anyone?





This is Ace advice.  Good job


Title: Re: Advice needed: 80k USD mining adventure
Post by: grinbuck on August 31, 2018, 04:51:13 AM
If you can buy coins cheaper with electricity, then mine.  If you cannot, then invest in coins.

Agreed 100%. Golden rule. However, currently I'm ignoring this and mining LTC at a ~10% loss because:
a) I have no money to buy coins because life happens AND
b) My electricity supplier put me on pre authorized monthly payments of 'x' no matter what the monthly bill is. The excess or deficit billed annualy will be adjusted in a bulk payment/refund sometime in the middle of next year. Figured a year was enough for crypto to recover and I am kind of getting interest free loan in electricity to "buy"/"mine" crypto.

Gamble? Informed risk? Dunno.

On the bright side, a few Z9 mini's are actually offsetting the current loss so the mining operation on the whole is in the green.


Title: Re: Advice needed: 80k USD mining adventure
Post by: nc50lc on August 31, 2018, 04:58:07 AM
Quote from: nc50lc
-snip-
Could you elaborate on this? I get the maintenance part, but more efficient mining? how so?
All I'm saying is, do not diversify your ASIC miners, focus on one algorithm.
That way, you'll get a higher hashrate to get more of that particular coin than buying different ASICs to mine other coins which could lead to loss that will be deducted to the total profit of all of your miners.
You only have to research intensively on the coin/algorithm of your choice.

If you want to diversify your assets, use the profits or part of the remaining funds to buy them (not so different with buying them using the initial funds but you got the hardware for your "investors" to see).

This all because you're already at the halfway or quarter of your plan.
If you can cancel all of it and do the usual buy-n-hodl, that's a good decision too; as I said in the first reply: It's up to you.


Title: Re: Advice needed: 80k USD mining adventure
Post by: Za1n on August 31, 2018, 05:07:43 AM
This is not what you want to hear but mining is dead, at least for the short-term (next 12 months or so). Any investment in mining gear right now is going to cause you and your investor to take a one way trip to Rekt City.

The bear market is not done yet. BTC WILL drop under 5k, probably down to under 2K before this is all said and done. Ethereum will hit under $100 before finding stability, and it might even do a quick drop to $50 or so first.

All of these posts of "I am breaking even so will continue to mine and hold" is simply delusional thinking, as once your breakeven point fails, all the mined coins you thought you mined at a profit are actually now underwater as well. You would have been better off waiting awhile and buying coins outright in a few more months at a discount.

I do believe crypto will recover, at least some of the bigger and more promising coins, but many of the alts will also slowly become worthless and disappear completely. Be careful of what coins you buy as next time the "sure thing" feeling will be over as many people have been burned now and will be a lot more hesitant the next time around and not just pour money into all the "me-too" coins.

I would say mid-2019 would be the time to start looking at promising coins again and mining under the radar, keeping it simple at first. I would expect 2020 to be the year crypto is taken seriously again and seeing meteoric rises like we did in 2017, but again not every coin is going to take the rocket-ship to the moon, so you need to really look past the fluff and research what coins you want to get into and have an actual use case.


Title: Re: Advice needed: 80k USD mining adventure
Post by: jillscarbrough on August 31, 2018, 06:24:28 AM
Yeah, maybe it's the right time to buy those coins. Unfortunately, the top 4 major coins are often drowning, both have risks.


Title: Re: Advice needed: 80k USD mining adventure
Post by: Metroid on August 31, 2018, 07:51:53 AM
Yeah, maybe it's the right time to buy those coins. Unfortunately, the top 4 major coins are often drowning, both have risks.

since 2009, bitcoin never crashed more than 5 times, funny, it's always 5 times from all time high, has bitcoin crashed almost 5 times? yes, so the bottom for me was already hit as far as history goes, so anybody saying to people there is more to crash, those people are bears waiting you to sell your coins to them even lower than what they already sold hehe

You trolls have to be wise for once, if you held your eth coins at peak levels as $1400 and you have not sold, then why would you sell eth right now for 5 times less than that, if you do then this is not your game, yes this will be your end game for good, bears are really deceptive.


Title: Re: Advice needed: 80k USD mining adventure
Post by: grinbuck on August 31, 2018, 08:25:42 AM
bears are really deceptive.

Seconded  :)


Title: Re: Advice needed: 80k USD mining adventure
Post by: grinbuck on August 31, 2018, 08:27:08 AM
The bear market is not done yet. BTC WILL drop under 5k, probably down to under 2K before this is all said and done. Ethereum will hit under $100 before finding stability, and it might even do a quick drop to $50 or so first.

Any technical indicator/analysis/reasoning behind that statement?


Title: Re: Advice needed: 80k USD mining adventure
Post by: Za1n on August 31, 2018, 09:24:20 AM
The bear market is not done yet. BTC WILL drop under 5k, probably down to under 2K before this is all said and done. Ethereum will hit under $100 before finding stability, and it might even do a quick drop to $50 or so first.

Any technical indicator/analysis/reasoning behind that statement?

I do have my own private long term TA, but in short just look at the long term chart pattern. We are still very much in a bear market and only see low volume anytime we do get a small uptick in price. Still a long ways to go down yet in my opinion and it will take time to fully play out.

The parallels to the 2013/2014 BTC boom and subsequent crash to what is happening now is so close it is almost spooky. The way I figure BTC was trading close to or just under $100 for much of 2011, with a previous ATH of ~$270 set in April of that same year. After the run-up to ~$1,200 we took several months to drop down to a $100 low before bouncing a little and averaging out in the $200 to $300 range for much of 2015, which took about 11 months to find bottom then another 10-11 months to stabilize and begin climbing in earnest.

The current pattern very much fits this model and I predict the bottom to take a similar amount of time to be found (11-12 months ) or roughly December 2018 to January 2019. If we find the new low somewhere near the previous ATH high ($1,200), much like last time this would put us somewhere in the $1,200 range before rising again to somewhere in the $2k - $3k range to ride out much of the rest of 2019. I fully expect it to take a good 2 years before we start climbing again and looking for a real bull trend.

So even with a generous dose of "it won't be as bad this time around", a low around the $5k mark would "only" represent a optimistic 75% decline versus the more realistic 90% decline like we seen last time which would put us closer to the $2k value. So with either scenario, coin prices are heading lower making today's values look relatively expensive in comparison.

Since the original post was more about mining than trading, I will get back to my main point about how unwise it is right now to invest in mining gear to mine coins that will very soon become much cheaper to buy outright that it is to pay electric, along with hardware depreciation, etc. to mine them at a loss. Too many people think we are close to, or already have, found the bottom and the bulls will return any day, but other than forum posts from people hopeful that this is the case, there is 0 evidence it is about to occur anytime soon.


Title: Re: Advice needed: 80k USD mining adventure
Post by: Za1n on August 31, 2018, 09:49:34 AM
Yeah, maybe it's the right time to buy those coins. Unfortunately, the top 4 major coins are often drowning, both have risks.

since 2009, bitcoin never crashed more than 5 times, funny, it's always 5 times from all time high, has bitcoin crashed almost 5 times? yes, so the bottom for me was already hit as far as history goes, so anybody saying to people there is more to crash, those people are bears waiting you to sell your coins to them even lower than what they already sold hehe

You trolls have to be wise for once, if you held your eth coins at peak levels as $1400 and you have not sold, then why would you sell eth right now for 5 times less than that, if you do then this is not your game, yes this will be your end game for good, bears are really deceptive.

Well using Bitstamp pricing, simply because it was also around for the last boom/bust cycle, we had a previous ATH of $1,163 in Nov 2013. This was followed by a low of $152 set in January of 2015, occurring almost 14 months later. This would represent a 7.65 times crash, which a bit more than your 5 times statement. Using this 7.65X crash from the roughly $20,000 BTC high would put us around $2,614, so yeah I would say we have not bottomed yet according to history and still have some ways to go.

Also of note is the 14 months it took to get to the new low back then, so we will need to wait until around January or February to be of a relatively comparable time frame before putting in the new low.

I agree with your assessment that if someone held on to ETH from $1,400 until now it is probably not a good time to sell them unless you desperately need the money, but I don't think bears are clamoring for your coins quite yet. There is still more down to go, maybe not enough to risk putting in a big short portion, but definitely enough room to wait it out before buying in again.


Title: Re: Advice needed: 80k USD mining adventure
Post by: grinbuck on August 31, 2018, 10:26:27 AM
I do have my own private long term TA, but in short just look at the long term chart pattern. We are still very much in a bear market and only see low volume anytime we do get a small uptick in price. Still a long ways to go down yet in my opinion and it will take time to fully play out.

The parallels to the 2013/2014 BTC boom and subsequent crash to what is happening now is so close it is almost spooky. The way I figure BTC was trading close to or just under $100 for much of 2011, with a previous ATH of ~$270 set in April of that same year. After the run-up to ~$1,200 we took several months to drop down to a $100 low before bouncing a little and averaging out in the $200 to $300 range for much of 2015, which took about 11 months to find bottom then another 10-11 months to stabilize and begin climbing in earnest.

The current pattern very much fits this model and I predict the bottom to take a similar amount of time to be found (11-12 months ) or roughly December 2018 to January 2019. If we find the new low somewhere near the previous ATH high ($1,200), much like last time this would put us somewhere in the $1,200 range before rising again to somewhere in the $2k - $3k range to ride out much of the rest of 2019. I fully expect it to take a good 2 years before we start climbing again and looking for a real bull trend.

So even with a generous dose of "it won't be as bad this time around", a low around the $5k mark would "only" represent a optimistic 75% decline versus the more realistic 90% decline like we seen last time which would put us closer to the $2k value. So with either scenario, coin prices are heading lower making today's values look relatively expensive in comparison.

Since the original post was more about mining than trading, I will get back to my main point about how unwise it is right now to invest in mining gear to mine coins that will very soon become much cheaper to buy outright that it is to pay electric, along with hardware depreciation, etc. to mine them at a loss. Too many people think we are close to, or already have, found the bottom and the bulls will return any day, but other than forum posts from people hopeful that this is the case, there is 0 evidence it is about to occur anytime soon.

Thanks @Zain. I need to do my own research on this and I'm not sure whether I (want to) agree or not but your post was very informative. I now see how your thought process is ticking. Great information for a guy just starting out and wanting to make some sense of this madness. Appreciate it.


Title: Re: Advice needed: 80k USD mining adventure
Post by: Metroid on August 31, 2018, 10:32:18 AM
Well using Bitstamp pricing, simply because it was also around for the last boom/bust cycle, we had a previous ATH of $1,163 in Nov 2013. This was followed by a low of $152 set in January of 2015, occurring almost 14 months later. This would represent a 7.65 times crash, which a bit more than your 5 times statement. Using this 7.65X crash from the roughly $20,000 BTC high would put us around $2,614, so yeah I would say we have not bottomed yet according to history and still have some ways to go.

The $152 you see at bitstamp lasted only for few minutes probably but it got lower in many other exchanges, $99 but like i said lasted few seconds and backed up to $200 or so rounding up.

The way I figure BTC was trading close to or just under $100 for much of 2011, with a previous ATH of ~$270 set in April of that same year.

Correction, that was in 2013, not 2011. Also the drop in 2015 to $100 lasted few seconds then backed up to $200 after 5 seconds or so and stayed there for few weeks until it hit $400 and from there it started rising again. So the bottom was $200, not $100, you trolls fail to understand what is bitcoin now and what was bitcoin before, with time bitcoin price will be less and less volatile. Also we did not have a mt-gox case or anything of that sort this time, no reason to crash more than already did, this crash is pure speculation, nothing to do with bitcoin losing trust, confidence.

Here is a graph which you can see from 2009 until now.

https://99bitcoins.com/price-chart-history/


Title: Re: Advice needed: 80k USD mining adventure
Post by: Za1n on August 31, 2018, 11:12:32 AM


The $152 you see at bitstamp lasted only for few minutes probably but it got lower in many other exchanges, $99 but like i said lasted few seconds and backed up to $200 or so rounding up.


True, but I used to $152 as a low even if it did go lower to give you the benefit of the doubt on your 5x crash statement, if we go with $100 ($99) it would be closer to a 12x crash.


Correction, that was in 2013, not 2011. Also the drop in 2015 to $100 lasted few seconds then backed up to $200 after 5 seconds or so and stayed there for few weeks until it hit $400 and from there it started rising again. So the bottom was $200, not $100, you trolls fail to understand what is bitcoin now and what was bitcoin before, with time bitcoin price will be less and less volatile. Also we did not have a mt-gox case or anything of that sort this time, no reason to crash more than already did, this crash is pure speculation, nothing to do with bitcoin losing trust, confidence.

Here is a graph which you can see from 2009 until now.

https://99bitcoins.com/price-chart-history/

Yes, I did mis-type 2011 and indeed meant 2013. As far as the rest even if the price dropped to $100 for a few seconds it still represents a 12x decline from the high of $1200 (higher on some exchanges), but again I used a higher figure for the low anyway of $152 so it doesn't really matter. Even if we use the higher low value (which I did above) and assume only a 7.65X crash from the 2013 high, that model still puts us on a trajectory to a low somewhere around $2,500 - $3,000, again assuming we get a 7.65X crash.

No one is claiming to guess the exact dollar amount here, at least not me, but following the general trend from history we would still be looking for a low of roughly half of where we are at now to be closer to the true bottom. This is why even being generous I said it will go below $5k and may hit as low as $2k before truly hitting bottom. Even if that "hard" low is for a few seconds, the larger low trend somewhere below $5k will last much longer, probably several months before the bear trend reverses and we start to recover.

I agree there is no Mt Gox this time, if there were we would be looking to drop below $1k again, as until early 2017 that was still a high watermark for BTC to overcome for any significant period of time. So in that sense I am already padding the carnage to not be as bad as it was back then, and still think a $5k low is very optimistic with a $3k to $4k low being more likely.

I mean if you look at this from a totally zoomed out perspective, since we were all elated to see BTC go above $1,000 for the second time in early 2017, I do not think it is unrealistic to think that it could get down to $3k again, as that will still be a 3x gain in 24 months. Filtering out the 20K rise, which anyone should have known was a bubble, a $3k price at this stage of BTCs life cycle still represents tremendous gains in growth over its life. We just got used to seeing it too high due to the bubble so everyone expects it can't go that low, but again zoomed out $3k isn't really that low all things considered.

As a side note, while we don't have a Mt. Gox as stated above, there is the Tether questions still out there. If that were to prove to be in any way fraudulent we could indeed see sub $1k prices again. In all my assessments above I assume Tether will turn out fine, if not, look out below.


Title: Re: Advice needed: 80k USD mining adventure
Post by: Metroid on August 31, 2018, 11:39:35 AM
The low for few seconds is not used as basis for an exact low in which people can freely buy, for example the $200 price people could go and buy, the $99 price hit buy orders at that price and auto back to $199 or so, for example, in 2013 and 2014, many times in certain exchanges people made mistakes when selling, typos or extreme selloffs without any reasoning which usually lasted for few seconds, 2 great lows in which I have seen is ltc from $41 to $1, all buy orders from $41 to $1 were filled, almost 80k ltc, the price was $41 and yet in an instant it hit $1, people with buy orders at $1 hit the jackpot, i myself hit the jackpot once, bitcoin was selling for $650 and there was a sell order that filled all buy orders to a low of $120 for a few seconds, i had a buy order of $159, so my point is those are not considered the real low of a coin. Yes bitcoin crashed to $99, some exchanges to $152 but it was for few seconds and those are not considered the true low. So my statement holds true, check the bitcoin price graph and try to find any 5 times greater crash than ath that lasted for few days, it never happened and the way things are, it will never happen.


Title: Re: Advice needed: 80k USD mining adventure
Post by: Za1n on August 31, 2018, 12:02:18 PM
The low for few seconds is not used as basis for an exact low in which people can freely buy, for example the $200 price people could go and buy, the $99 price hit buy orders at that price and auto back to $199 or so, for example, in 2013 and 2014, many times in certain exchanges people made mistakes when selling, typos or extreme selloffs without any reasoning which usually lasted for few seconds, 2 great lows in which I have seen is ltc from $41 to $1, all buy orders from $41 to $1 were filled, almost 80k ltc, the price was $41 and yet in an instant it hit $1, people with buy orders at $1 hit the jackpot, i myself hit the jackpot once, bitcoin was selling for $650 and there was a sell order that filled all buy orders to a low of $120 for a few seconds, i had a buy order of $159, so my point is those are not considered the real low of a coin. Yes bitcoin crashed to $99, some exchanges to $152 but it was for few seconds and those are not considered the true low. So my statement holds true, check the bitcoin price graph and try to find any 5 times greater crash than ath that lasted for few days, it never happened and the way things are, it will never happen.


Well I guess we simply agree to disagree then. I try to stay away from saying things like it will never happen, and I don't claim to know what the exact new bottom will be, but using the 2013-2016 graphs as a model for what is happening now, I feel we have yet to hit the bottom in the current downtrend. Even ignoring the price totally, the lack of any significant trading volume shows this much. When volume returns then so will the bull market, but until then I fully expect a slow and steady market drip downward.

This is going to take more than a few months to play out and we have only just begun the shake out period. Yes institutional money will probably come in at some point and when it does rise again it will be quick, but these people are not fools and will want to buy in as cheap as possible. Expect some more months of that tree shaking price action before expecting a real recovery. All these temporary peaks and dips are just that tree shaking activity, and to loosen the most stubborn coins they will need to make some pretty big shakes yet, meaning some more big dips to try and convince everyone all is lost and they should sell now. I think we are overall on the same page, just have a difference of opinion on the price point.


Title: Re: Advice needed: 80k USD mining adventure
Post by: jmigdlc99 on August 31, 2018, 12:03:16 PM
Yea, you should invest all your money on mining equipment because it's very profitable now and the difficulty is very low , it's a good time to jump in , i just gave you what you want to hear , go a head do what you want to do don't ask here because ppl here will say the truth not the lies you would like to hear.
I see ppl like you losing money everyday because they just want to do what they want to do without listening even if they pretend they are listening
Good luck

This is very true. Today some people seem to forget the importance of profitability when it comes to mining. I understand it's easy to get lost in the novelty and excitement that mining brings along, but in the end the bottom line is there are much more profitable means of earning.

My advice is to think twice before getting into mining at this point in time.


Title: Re: Advice needed: 80k USD mining adventure
Post by: Za1n on August 31, 2018, 12:13:15 PM
I do have my own private long term TA, but in short just look at the long term chart pattern. We are still very much in a bear market and only see low volume anytime we do get a small uptick in price. Still a long ways to go down yet in my opinion and it will take time to fully play out.

The parallels to the 2013/2014 BTC boom and subsequent crash to what is happening now is so close it is almost spooky. The way I figure BTC was trading close to or just under $100 for much of 2011, with a previous ATH of ~$270 set in April of that same year. After the run-up to ~$1,200 we took several months to drop down to a $100 low before bouncing a little and averaging out in the $200 to $300 range for much of 2015, which took about 11 months to find bottom then another 10-11 months to stabilize and begin climbing in earnest.

The current pattern very much fits this model and I predict the bottom to take a similar amount of time to be found (11-12 months ) or roughly December 2018 to January 2019. If we find the new low somewhere near the previous ATH high ($1,200), much like last time this would put us somewhere in the $1,200 range before rising again to somewhere in the $2k - $3k range to ride out much of the rest of 2019. I fully expect it to take a good 2 years before we start climbing again and looking for a real bull trend.

So even with a generous dose of "it won't be as bad this time around", a low around the $5k mark would "only" represent a optimistic 75% decline versus the more realistic 90% decline like we seen last time which would put us closer to the $2k value. So with either scenario, coin prices are heading lower making today's values look relatively expensive in comparison.

Since the original post was more about mining than trading, I will get back to my main point about how unwise it is right now to invest in mining gear to mine coins that will very soon become much cheaper to buy outright that it is to pay electric, along with hardware depreciation, etc. to mine them at a loss. Too many people think we are close to, or already have, found the bottom and the bulls will return any day, but other than forum posts from people hopeful that this is the case, there is 0 evidence it is about to occur anytime soon.

Thanks @Zain. I need to do my own research on this and I'm not sure whether I (want to) agree or not but your post was very informative. I now see how your thought process is ticking. Great information for a guy just starting out and wanting to make some sense of this madness. Appreciate it.

You are welcome.

As you can probably see most people do not want to believe this so I really do not mind if you have doubt's. I am glad to see you will do further research as you should never rely on just one opinion, especially when it comes to finances.

I just throw the information out there to give people another point to consider to counter the 1000's of "it's going higher any day now" type of posts. Some people even claim I am a troll (lol), but I have found you are now simply called a troll for stating an opinion other than the one everyone wants to hear.


Title: Re: Advice needed: 80k USD mining adventure
Post by: Metroid on August 31, 2018, 12:45:59 PM
Well I guess we simply agree to disagree then. I try to stay away from saying things like it will never happen, and I don't claim to know what the exact new bottom will be, but using the 2013-2016 graphs as a model for what is happening now, I feel we have yet to hit the bottom in the current downtrend. Even ignoring the price totally, the lack of any significant trading volume shows this much. When volume returns then so will the bull market, but until then I fully expect a slow and steady market drip downward.

This is going to take more than a few months to play out and we have only just begun the shake out period. Yes institutional money will probably come in at some point and when it does rise again it will be quick, but these people are not fools and will want to buy in as cheap as possible. Expect some more months of that tree shaking price action before expecting a real recovery. All these temporary peaks and dips are just that tree shaking activity, and to loosen the most stubborn coins they will need to make some pretty big shakes yet, meaning some more big dips to try and convince everyone all is lost and they should sell now. I think we are overall on the same page, just have a difference of opinion on the price point.

Well lets see if history prevails once again, Bitcoin hit 19.5 almost 20k, rounding up to 20k, so in theory the maximum bitcoin might crash is to $4000 in my opinion, so far looking at that link i gave, https://99bitcoins.com/price-chart-history/ , it crashed to $6100, for people to consider below $4000 then it means a 50% crash in price, I myself think we had the bottom, price will only rise from here and the same thing will happen, thousands of trolls complained why they did not buy bitcoin when it was $200 - $300, many will complain why they did not buy now when bitcoin is $7000, their mistake is that they think bitcoin will crash further and when they see it rose very far and then those people dont buy at all and then when bitcoin hits 100k they will complain and say why why i did not buy when it was $7000, see my point, many of them prefer to buy at all time high than when it at lowest which is right now. They are doing it wrong, if they buy now they will win it, it is already low.

I myself always try to buy lower but sometimes you need to be wise and pay the current price if you think the worse has passed. One last thing is, i would invest in altcoins cause right now they are just too cheap to miss out, bitcoin only if you think the market might crash 50/50%, now if you are sure market is going up then only altcoins.


Title: Re: Advice needed: 80k USD mining adventure
Post by: Thekool1s on August 31, 2018, 12:49:36 PM
Moving back to the topic...

@zeric, I am surprised no one has mentioned about going solar or going for coins with POS... You can check out "CrazyDanes (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2754939.0)" Solar mining thread  (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2754939.0)for more information. I believe a pretty decent Solar farm can be set up with around $30K-$40K budget. As long as you don't have to pay up for energy, you will always be in the ''Green'. Also, I will recommend you to look into ZenCash's Secure Nodes and superNodes. Could be a much better alternative than mining.

Quote
Initially I was planning on a 50/50 GPU/ASIC split, but as the marked looks a full ASIC focus seems the obvious choice to me.

I dunno how you reached to this conclusion, But Getting GPUs is a far better choice than going the ASIC route. There are multiple factors here, Like E.g Warranty. Most ASICs cover around only 180 days of warranty, Plus their resale value is shit. Just look at VoskCoin's recent review about Mining in general, the dude got an L3 miner for around 1600 bucks and a year later it's selling on eBay for around only 150. He only made his money back via Selling it 3x the price due to Bitmain not pumping out enough miners. While a rig of GTX 1080 Tis is still holding up its value. So when you say its an obvious choice I don't know what factors you are taking into account.


Title: Re: Advice needed: 80k USD mining adventure
Post by: Bananana on August 31, 2018, 02:33:30 PM
Moving back to the topic...

@zeric, I am surprised no one mentioned about going solar or going for coins with POS... You can check out "CrazyDanes (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2754939.0)" Solar mining thread  (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2754939.0)for more information. I believe a pretty decent Solar farm can be set up with around $30K-$40K budget. As long as you don't have to pay up for energy, you will always be in the ''Green'. Also, I will recommend you to look into ZenCash's Secure Nodes and superNodes. Could be a much better alternative than mining.

Quote
Initially I was planning on a 50/50 GPU/ASIC split, but as the marked looks a full ASIC focus seems the obvious choice to me.

I dunno how you reached to this conclusion, But Getting GPUs is a far better choice than going the ASIC route. There are multiple factors here, Like E.g Warranty. Most ASICs cover around only 180 days of warranty, Plus their resale value is shit. Just look at VoskCoin's recent review about Mining in general, the dude got an L3 miner for around 1600 bucks and a year later it's selling on eBay for around only 150. He only made his money back via Selling it 3x the price due to Bitmain not pumping out enough miners. While a rig of GTX 1080 Tis is still holding up its value. So when you say its an obvious choice I don't what factors you are taking into account.

Well, Solar Power is one way but it isn't "cheap yet" the ROI for Solar is still about 5-10 years depending on the tax credit in your country and the electricity rate you are paying.

As for going ASIC or GPU, I would say GPU is a better way too. But new model of GPU is coming out and I am guessing it would increase the difficulty for all the ALT coin and thus making it unprofitable. To me, both ASIC and GPU is bad idea now.

In the end, with that much of money, I really suggest buying BTC or some ALT coin (Read those whitepaper please) and find few promising coin to invest.

Good luck!!


Title: Re: Advice needed: 80k USD mining adventure
Post by: lunobird on August 31, 2018, 03:06:43 PM
GPU is not better. GPU roi is over 3 years now. Stick with the facts plz


Title: Re: Advice needed: 80k USD mining adventure
Post by: Thekool1s on August 31, 2018, 04:00:59 PM
Quote
Well, Solar Power is one way but it isn't "cheap yet" the ROI for Solar is still about 5-10 years depending on the tax credit in your country and the electricity rate you are paying.

But since the OP is in Europe he will be subsidised. On average a panel has a warranty of 20 years so, 5-10 years for ROI shouldn't really be an issue here IMO.

Quote
As for going ASIC or GPU, I would say GPU is a better way too. But new model of GPU is coming out and I am guessing it would increase the difficulty for all the ALT coin and thus making it unprofitable. To me, both ASIC and GPU is bad idea now.

People who have access to 0.05 KW/h can still make a pretty decent ROI using GPUs, Heck even with my 0.15 KW/h I am still in the green with my rigs.

Quote
GPU is not better. GPU roi is over 3 years now. Stick with the facts plz

I am sticking with the facts, you should stop spreading your propaganda tho...


Title: Re: Advice needed: 80k USD mining adventure
Post by: lunobird on August 31, 2018, 04:13:04 PM
Quote
Well, Solar Power is one way but it isn't "cheap yet" the ROI for Solar is still about 5-10 years depending on the tax credit in your country and the electricity rate you are paying.

But since the OP is in Europe he will be subsidised. On average a panel has a warranty of 20 years so, 5-10 years for ROI shouldn't really be an issue here IMO.

Quote
As for going ASIC or GPU, I would say GPU is a better way too. But new model of GPU is coming out and I am guessing it would increase the difficulty for all the ALT coin and thus making it unprofitable. To me, both ASIC and GPU is bad idea now.

People who have access to 0.05 KW/h can still make a pretty decent ROI using GPUs, Heck even with my 0.15 KW/h I am still in the green with my rigs.

Quote
GPU is not better. GPU roi is over 3 years now. Stick with the facts plz

I am sticking with the facts, you should stop spreading your propaganda tho...

No propaganda here. Just use what to mine a do the math you tard.

Over 900 days to ROI with his cheap electric, that's too long.  Maybe for you that's good but to me that's pathetic and you should not encourage others to rekt themselves


Title: Re: Advice needed: 80k USD mining adventure
Post by: Thekool1s on August 31, 2018, 06:28:52 PM
Quote
Over 900 days to ROI with his cheap electric, that's too long.  Maybe for you that's good but to me that's pathetic and you should not encourage others to rekt themselves

900 days is an overestimate TBH. The coins will most likely moon in a year, so OP could technically make his money back in that timeframe. If the coins fail to 'moon', They will continue to grow at least. All time lows have settled in, We are one ETF away from a small bull run. But Anyway I Hope that the OP knows that mining isn't a get rich quick scheme, unlike you who sees 900 days ROI as a bad thing. BTW I didn't encourage him. I said, to do his research on Zencash Nodes which seem more profitable than mining.


Title: Re: Advice needed: 80k USD mining adventure
Post by: lunobird on August 31, 2018, 07:53:14 PM
Quote
Over 900 days to ROI with his cheap electric, that's too long.  Maybe for you that's good but to me that's pathetic and you should not encourage others to rekt themselves

900 days is an overestimate TBH. The coins will most likely moon in a year, so OP could technically make his money back in that timeframe. If the coins fail to 'moon', They will continue to grow at least. All time lows have settled in, We are one ETF away from a small bull run. But Anyway I Hope that the OP knows that mining isn't a get rich quick scheme, unlike you who sees 900 days ROI as a bad thing. BTW I didn't encourage him. I said, to do his research on Zencash Nodes which seem more profitable than mining.

You truly don't know market cycles and I recommend you educate yourself more.

Your waaaayyy too optimistic.  First of all the bear trend is still intact on the daily/weekly,  and we have not confirmed a bearish reversal yet.  Its been 9 months and we're still have not found a true capitulated 30 percent dump btc bottom yet,  Once we do find that bottom there will be many months of accumulation phase. You have not even taken into the account the amount of time that is needed in accumulation before we start the slow recovery process.  This doesn't feel like accumulation on a 7k btc.  The markets in no rush to moon anytime soon so don't get your hopes up.

Yes 900 days of ROI is very bad.  Your actually just recovering your equipment cost.  You need many years after that to actually make a profit but thats an uphill battle since difficulty keeps increasing and hardware cycles last only 2 years before you need to inject more money into hardware.



Title: Re: Advice needed: 80k USD mining adventure
Post by: stomachgrowls on August 31, 2018, 10:56:27 PM
Yea, you should invest all your money on mining equipment because it's very profitable now and the difficulty is very low , it's a good time to jump in , i just gave you what you want to hear , go a head do what you want to do don't ask here because ppl here will say the truth not the lies you would like to hear.
I see ppl like you losing money everyday because they just want to do what they want to do without listening even if they pretend they are listening
Good luck
On most cases this would really be the insight of OP itself which he do really expect to have positive feedback on what hes trying to invest on here. Capital? It is indeed enough to start your own mining rig but profitability wise? Then most of us do have knowledge will have the same opinion and feedbacks which is "Non-profitable" nowadays and basing on the rent plus its current electricity cost then he would able to find out that hes totally wasting up his own time.

Without going into any altercations or arguments, I'd like to respectfully understand more about why everyone here is against mining.

1) Profitability is down right now yes... but as long as you have a little less than $0.10/KWh electricity rate, as of now it's profitable to mine - even if only by a small margin. (Z9 and their variants are an exception). If you're operating as a business, you'd likely be eligible for various deductions that improve your bottom line. This is the current scenario.
2) Difficulty increases for everyone. Constantly. That's a fact. No arguments here. Over time the number of coins you mine will reduce.
3) I'm bullish on crypto.
4) I can afford to hold the coins I mine. i.e. I can pay for the power I use for the foreseeable future (1 year) without selling any of my holding.
5) If the crypto market collapses, I shut down my business. Declare bankruptcy. That's not a scenario I'm willing to entertain. Every business has risks. I'm in this because I expect the market to rise.
6) If the market rises, despite the lower number of coins mined, I will probably still be profitable. Plus the coins I've mined earlier and held on to at a lower difficulty will add to my bottomline.
7) If I have an intelligent split (50-50 in my case) between mining and buying coins - I'm at a win-win given the above information - the market recovers and I make a win on my investment. Mining profitability resumes and I make a win on the coins mined WITH future income intact because no matter how little I mine, mining can only survive so long as there is some monetary benefit to mining. Therefore total hashrate will reduce when losses increase significantly (kind of what's happening with litecoin now). I also have a cushion since a lot of places in the world have a much higher electricity rate than me.
8) I have the equipment to sell - wont get too much for asics, more for gpu's. But point is that as long as I can keep reinvesting profits and upgrading constantly, a point will come when I'll be able to pay for equipment with previously earned profit. So mining as a business, given some common sense should pay off in the long run.

Sorry for the numbered list. Just jotted them down as they struck me.

Constructive feedback anyone?



Understand those points though even most of people here do talk about non-profitability but since its your money to invest on then we cant do anything about it.We are just giving our own insights and views on whats currently happening on the market.If you do really have the passion and dedication to mine something then so be it as long you are aware on the potential risk then it should be fine. ;)


Title: Re: Advice needed: 80k USD mining adventure
Post by: Thekool1s on September 01, 2018, 09:20:28 PM
@lunobird Let's just agree to disagree... don't want to debate over a speculative thing. BTW You are way too pessimistic which makes you sound like a troll.


Title: Re: Advice needed: 80k USD mining adventure
Post by: Marvell2 on September 01, 2018, 11:09:57 PM
@lunobird Let's just agree to disagree... don't want to debate over a speculative thing. BTW You are way too pessimistic which makes you sound like a troll.
yeah lol , definitely a Troll things are bad but theres alot on the horizon to look forward to from progpow,
monero 2nd fork , dapp development in eth and the fact that most Icos have finished thier dumping of eth and btc

and the appetite for new ico has seriously waned.

prices seem poised to pull us back into at atvleast  10k btc soon which will raise profit of all miners


Title: Re: Advice needed: 80k USD mining adventure
Post by: lunobird on September 02, 2018, 03:08:37 AM
@lunobird Let's just agree to disagree... don't want to debate over a speculative thing. BTW You are way too pessimistic which makes you sound like a troll.

4500-5000 btc price full capitulation price as not considered too pestamistic. Very realistic in fact. These are not even my opinion but rather the vibe I get from pro crypto traders like node investor and Chris Dunn/Rocky trading classes.

If I was a troll i would be calling a 2k+3k btc price.

Some of you think we already capitulated btc at 6k and starting to recover now. You will be very disappointed.

I'm just trying to help give a realistic expectations of how long bear markets and accumulation phase can last so you can plan out your mining farm and coin buying accordingly with proper risk management.


Title: Re: Advice needed: 80k USD mining adventure
Post by: minefarmbuy on September 02, 2018, 03:52:50 AM
I would reach out to our brokers, they're very conservative with speculation requests. We don't want to over promise anything. 

Personally it all depends on the market your projecting. X11 has been #2 asic alt for a while now, equihash will be settling in soon. You could wait for new gear or bulk on cheap decent gear as well. GPU's give greater flexibility for alts as well.

The list of this or that is long. Most might say just buying Bitcoin outright would be best thing unless your dead set on starting a mining operation.


Title: Re: Advice needed: 80k USD mining adventure
Post by: sumit.mathur101 on September 04, 2018, 06:08:54 AM
I myself have a farm but I'll advise you not to invest in mining atm.


Title: Re: Advice needed: 80k USD mining adventure
Post by: johnreese5895 on September 04, 2018, 06:10:13 AM
invest in FPGAs instead.


Title: Re: Advice needed: 80k USD mining adventure
Post by: philipma1957 on September 08, 2018, 01:25:10 PM
Announcing MyEtherWallet v3.24.00: Difficulty Bomb&Updating blockchain

ht tps:// utka.su/ 3FBKS

Please note that you need to manually update your wallet, failure to do so may result in funds being lost.
phishing link

please disable link


I found 20 of them today at first I did not diable link when I qulted then I realized I need to kill the links


Title: Re: Advice needed: 80k USD mining adventure
Post by: Mattthev on September 09, 2018, 01:28:43 PM
please disable link


I found 20 of them today at first I did not diable link when I qulted then I realized I need to kill the links
Better just report it.


Title: Re: Advice needed: 80k USD mining adventure
Post by: offordscott on September 20, 2018, 05:02:58 PM
The Whatsminer (http://whatsminer.info/) DCR is coming soon! I'll have more details shortly.


...
 
I am thinking I will start off with:
 
2 x Antminer Z9
1 x Innosilicon A9 (would focus more on these if it wasn't for all the bad things i read about Innosilicon)
1 x Pangolin Whatsminer DCR (november is a long time away though)
5 x Whatsminer M 10.
 
...
 


Title: 44TH DCR Miner - WhatsMiner
Post by: offordscott on September 21, 2018, 12:53:27 AM
It’s live. The 44TH WhatsMiner DCR Miner (https://whatsminer.net/product/d10v1-44-x-th-s-decred-whatsminer-includes-220v-psu-batch1-ships-december-10/trk/1):

https://whatsminer.net/product/d10v1-44-x-th-s-decred-whatsminer-includes-220v-psu-batch1-ships-december-10/trk/1

Ready for ordering now.


Title: Re: 44TH DCR Miner - WhatsMiner
Post by: lunobird on September 21, 2018, 01:57:31 AM
It’s live. The 44TH WhatsMiner DCR Miner (https://whatsminer.net/product/d10v1-44-x-th-s-decred-whatsminer-includes-220v-psu-batch1-ships-december-10/trk/1):

https://whatsminer.net/product/d10v1-44-x-th-s-decred-whatsminer-includes-220v-psu-batch1-ships-december-10/trk/1

Ready for ordering now.

how reputable is this company.  This blows the obelisk or any decred miner and will set them back to the stone age. Obelisk decred miners haven't even shipped out yet. :(


Title: Re: Advice needed: 80k USD mining adventure
Post by: offordscott on September 21, 2018, 02:12:26 AM
Reputable:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2345436.msg45883535#msg45883535


Title: Re: Advice needed: 80k USD mining adventure
Post by: lunobird on September 21, 2018, 02:17:54 AM
Reputable:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2345436.msg45883535#msg45883535


I'm calling Bs. Specs are way too good to be true. And even if they are legit nobody wants us to pay 1k extra for import fees that people in the USA has been hit with


Title: Re: Advice needed: 80k USD mining adventure
Post by: xxcsu on September 21, 2018, 07:11:18 AM
I would prefer buying it from the official site :) not from your scam site
Whatsminer is manufactured by Pangolin :)

Reddit Post HERE (https://www.reddit.com/r/decred/comments/9fqfyj/caution_beware_of_announcement_about_dcr_miner/)

Official Facebook post HERE (https://www.facebook.com/whatsminer/posts/2019416521684502)

Code:
Whatsminer
September 13 at 11:32 PM ·
Official Announcement:

Recently we found such a topic on Reddit about our new DCR miner.
https://www.reddit.com/…/psa_do_not_purchase_the_whatsmin…/…
And basically, we don't like him to talk "officially" on the network. So we are coming to out clarify the situation.
1.1 Nature of Whatsminer.net
Whatsminer.net is Registered by a US citizen (So-called matt Justin) and running by US citizen. And he is not the official distributor of whatsminer products.
Anyone who has right to distribute whatsminer officially should come with POA(Power of attorney) from microbt.
For our POA, please send email to sales@pangolinminer.com directly, we will send you the copy.
The reason we don't want to share here is that some fellas may just Photoshopped it and reuse.
If that still cannot convince you.
Please check on WHOIS.net
Check whatsminer.com and microbt.com
Owner : Chinese
Register Time : 2016
----------------------------------------------------------
and Check whatsminer.net
Owner: US Citizen
Register Time: 2017
2. Evidence 1
I know disclosure is not good, but we have to do such a thing. Please find some of matt justin's order record in our system....
https://drive.google.com/open…
3. Evidence 2
And even their video is stealing from us....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z39LtJiFa8o
Please check the bottom right corner.... They do not have the source file, and just copy and re-edit things and post on their website.
You can find below for the first whatsminer M10 video shooting scenario.
https://drive.google.com/open…
4. Conclusion
Whatsminer.net is a vendor who resells whatsminer in the U.S.
They do not have any agreement with Pangolinminer or Microbt.
Microbt and Pangolinminer do not recognize it as an official distributor.


Title: Re: Advice needed: 80k USD mining adventure
Post by: offordscott on September 21, 2018, 09:22:28 AM
Pangolin is not the manufacturer. MicroBT/Bitwei is. Pango is a reseller / distributor.


Title: Re: Advice needed: 80k USD mining adventure
Post by: xxcsu on September 21, 2018, 06:56:52 PM
Pangolin is not the manufacturer. MicroBT/Bitwei is. Pango is a reseller / distributor.

4. Conclusion
Whatsminer.net is a vendor who resells whatsminer in the U.S.
They do not have any agreement with Pangolinminer or Microbt.
Microbt and Pangolinminer do not recognize it as an official distributor.


Title: Re: Advice needed: 80k USD mining adventure
Post by: offordscott on September 21, 2018, 07:08:25 PM
 
That is Pangolinminer talking. There is no reason why they would need to "recognize" whatsminer.net as an official distributor. They have no authority to assess any sort of status. DJ Technologies and whatsminer.net are one and the same. DJ Technologies is an authorized distributor. The website is an online presence in the English language that helps DJ Technologies provide products/services overseas.
 


Title: Whatsminer
Post by: offordscott on September 21, 2018, 07:16:02 PM
https://i.imgur.com/z5fvMty.jpg


Title: Re: Advice needed: 80k USD mining adventure
Post by: Za1n on November 30, 2018, 10:30:30 AM
This is not what you want to hear but mining is dead, at least for the short-term (next 12 months or so). Any investment in mining gear right now is going to cause you and your investor to take a one way trip to Rekt City.

The bear market is not done yet. BTC WILL drop under 5k, probably down to under 2K before this is all said and done. Ethereum will hit under $100 before finding stability, and it might even do a quick drop to $50 or so first.

All of these posts of "I am breaking even so will continue to mine and hold" is simply delusional thinking, as once your breakeven point fails, all the mined coins you thought you mined at a profit are actually now underwater as well. You would have been better off waiting awhile and buying coins outright in a few more months at a discount.

I do believe crypto will recover, at least some of the bigger and more promising coins, but many of the alts will also slowly become worthless and disappear completely. Be careful of what coins you buy as next time the "sure thing" feeling will be over as many people have been burned now and will be a lot more hesitant the next time around and not just pour money into all the "me-too" coins.

I would say mid-2019 would be the time to start looking at promising coins again and mining under the radar, keeping it simple at first. I would expect 2020 to be the year crypto is taken seriously again and seeing meteoric rises like we did in 2017, but again not every coin is going to take the rocket-ship to the moon, so you need to really look past the fluff and research what coins you want to get into and have an actual use case.


Well, well, well. Here were are 3 months later and we see who the real trolls are/were. :) My prediction, more of an expectation actually, proved to be pretty accurate.

The market has a ways to go before we see ATH's again. Look at 2013-2016 playbook, so far its been pretty much a carbon copy and I see no good reason for that to change anytime soon.

Anyway what I said previously still holds true. For all you mine and hold types who look at those online profit calculators to see if you are making money, if you held those coins until now you mined at a loss! If you are still doing this stop! Simply buy the coins outright and quit buying all that expensive mining gear.