Bitcoin Forum

Are we set for another rally after the European Conference?
I certainly think so.
I'd hold onto any coins you can get your grubby little hands on. ;)

-Wolf

http://tattlecoin.com/2011/rumor-bitcoin-set-huge-price-jump/ (http://tattlecoin.com/2011/rumor-bitcoin-set-huge-price-jump/)

You're a bit late, the "rally" is almost ready to start winding down.

The rally won't begin for at least two weeks.

would you stop guessing?

Really? You're one to talk.

$3.25 peak, already down to $2.95.  Almost 10% off already.  I hope people enjoyed the rush.

I feel really good about this  ;D.

The crash was simply someone cashing out.  The rally may or may not continue.  For it not to continue, we need actual constant selling pressure.

One of the problems I have with selling (which I could now do at a profit...finally) is that I am not sure I could get back in again if I wanted to.

I could see all manner of hassles cropping up for the exchanges and they having no real alternative but to shutter their doors at any time.  Put the right kind of injunction in place, and a little pressure on the right judge or regulator, and we could have a pretty tight lockdown.

I've no idea if this bothers any other potential sellers or not of course.

Supply is way down.... bitcoin.sipa.be

Actually it's up, if you look at it this way. More coins for individual miners means more overall coins would hit the market since everybody has some imaginary figure in his head of what to keep which isn't likely to change very rapidly. Of course a lagging difficulty adjustment would in fact release less coins over the same time period which you are right decrease supply temporally.

I think both effects compensate each other more or less and that said, the coins having the most influence on the market are old coins, cuz they are more.

damn, I need to stop posting on this forum people are way to obsessed with prices it has become everything... all hell would break loose if that aspect of bitcoin would start to become irrelevant.

The miners are the speculators that bring the market down. Probably the reason why its at $3 now instead of $20.

Some large pool probably just decided to cash out then bam a wave of straight selling hits eventually driving the price down to peanuts.

from your link:
"Remember that price bump I predicted back before the NYC Bitcoin Conference? Get ready for that bump’s big brother."

You predicted nothing.
There was no real price bump caused by the NY conference and it went downhill from there.
There was a small rally between 19 and 20 aug. but that price difference doesn't even cover commision.
There was a collapse a few weeks before that conference from $14 to $11 and our market didn't recover from that by the time the conference 'bump' happened.
After that it all went downwards and we are now at around $3.
You , sir , are  full  of  it.

10% change in price is totally normal for bitcoin - the current trend still looks promising - $3 didn't break today (so far), which looks to be the bottom of the current trend.

http://oi43.tinypic.com/vnf76u.jpg

How nice of you to crop it so you can't see the bear trendline before it.

The long term bear trend line is broken by this bull trend for the first time since July (hence the rally).
Also this just happens to be the current trend - it may fail - at which point I will sell. I'm not suggesting the trend lines won't be broken - but it seems a reasonable guide for the short term.

don't worry, he only sees what he wants to.

I have to have some device to make a buy/sell decision. There is a trend and that's the only information I have - it looks ok so I buy - it looks bad so I sell. What do other people do? Buy when the trend is obviously down?

That's wrong. I am just cautious.
If that were the case I wouldn't even bothered with a reply.

We're all cautious, but it helps to have some idea where the edge of the cliff is when walking blind. That trend-line is my cliff edge and I suspect I'm not the only one.

Even though I wish the price was up over $100/BTC I believe that the price will hover around $4 for a while.

It is apparent with the easing of the mining difficulty that we dipped below profitability for some miners when we reached the $4 range.

The "manipulator" drove the price down below $3 but it is slowly rising up to its real value.

If current mining difficulty is steady, many miners will hold more than sell slowing the inflation rate. And if we can make it through to late 2012 then the blockchain reward will be cut in half and there will be an upward movement in price from there on out.

The manipulator is nothing but early adopters trying to cash out a little. I doubt this paradigm will change.

Especially with a clear and well established down trend (despite the past week or so) coupled with fresh bad news (i.e. the Euro transfer stuff).  I think we're currently in a calm before another very bad storm.

It is the way that it goes down that is what appears to be manipulation.

Large walls set up that then fall just as it is going down.

Early adopters are not sitting on $100k to put up walls while also selling $100k worth of BTC.

It can it be a deliberate rise in the price, to sell at high price and then to buyback at a lower price. It seems that the guy(s) really know how to trade and use bots, want to profit A LOT (maybe driving prices lower than 2) and also they LIKE to play with the market. I feel a lot of ego.

Those walls are from MTGOX themselves. with zero auditing or regulation they are free to do whatever they want on their own exchange. They answer to no one. They can easily create/remove/buy/sell 100k orders at the drop of the hat.

So you are saying that Mt Gox is artificially manipulating volatility with non-existant buy and sell orders that disappear when you try to take them?

highly unlikely.  as discussed in another thread, mtgox makes more money the higher the price so one would wonder why they would've allowed the price to fall so far down from the top which has hurt their revenues immensely.

In the small burst upwards last friday, I thought the askwalls at ฿3.35 and ฿3.50 were fake too. They were steep, like the bidwalls used to be before this small-increment thingey came around.
But nope. in a few seconds, 20 000 bitcoins were actually bought.

there are real buyers out there looking to scoop up cheap coins.  look at how the top 5 Bitcoin holders EXPANDED their holdings.

Taking down oders is a normal process in trading when volatility turns out not to match expectations. Why buy at 3 when you could buy at 2.5. Why sell at 3.5 when you could sell at 4.

People (or their trading systems) are constantly watching indicators and want to maximize profits. Of course also the ones with alot of BTC or USD....

In before we return to less than $3...

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=64-&m=mtgoxUSD&k=&r=120&i=&c=1&cv=1&ps=0&l=0&p=0&t=S&b=&a1=SMA&m1=30&a2=&m2=25&x=0
Bitcoin, last 4 months, with 30 day trailing moving average.

We've had slow periods before, but for the last 4 months, the 30 day moving average has consistently gone down in almost a straight line. That has not changed.

The rate of decline has slowed a bit; the price dropped $3 in September, but only $2 in October. Of course, we're at $3 now. Not much further down to go.

It's not at all clear how the endgame plays out. The market is so much smaller now, and any big transaction yanks the price around briefly.

There's always a bottom at zero.

Not on a logarithmic scale there isn't. And you will find your line is a lot straighter there too. On the way down and the way up. When talking about returns, nobody cares about the actual price, it's the percentage movement that matters. That's why logarithmic makes much more sense.

Actually, try putting it in Log. Then the rate of decline is actually increasing. (30% in August, 40% in September, 50% in October)
Edit: So yeah, actually not straight, as Dan said, but going faster and faster. This can also be blamed on less market depth though.

But yes, it's anyone's call. It only takes some lucky media attention to spark an influx of cash, and a corresponding rally, especially when we start off low like this.

Edit:
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=1150&m=mtgoxUSD&k=&r=120&i=Daily&c=0&s=&e=&Prev=&Next=&v=0&cv=0&ps=0&l=1&p=0&t=S&b=&a1=SMA&m1=30&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&SubmitButton=Draw&

High and low only have historic meaning. Without context how do we know that $3 is a low price? Maybe it's a really high price. If the market is purely speculative, nobody cares about the absolute price, they only care how it changes relative to it's previous price.

Let me rephrase that then:

It only takes some lucky media attention to spark an influx of cash, and a corresponding rally, especially when we start off with a rather extreme volatility like this.

So what you are saying is that it's media share is low. There are a lot of people that don't know about Bitcoin who might want in so it has the potential to increase in price. This has nothing to do with the dollar value. If the price was $1000 per coin and the general knowledge situation was the same would it also be a low price?

i think tomorrow we get a large ramp in the stock mkt which will correspond to a ramp in Bitcoin.

Hmm, what do I mean?
The current situation of bitcoin looks very much like an unstable balance. Most people think its price will either increase, and increase a lot, or decrease, and decrease a lot, maybe even die. Apart from that, there are a number of events going which might spark a large new interest in bitcoin, e.g. occupy wallstreet, but also bitcoin being mentioned a lot at Constellation's Connected Enterprise 2011.

Thinking about it, I believe you're right, it has nothing to do with the dollar value in itself, only with the bitcoin situation being at a tipping point. The reason the tipping point is there, is conflicting signals. There seems to be potential external interest, but the exchange rate has been dropping. Which of these impulses is going to prevail?

Why would a ramping stock market correspond to a ramp in bitcoin? Wasn't the reasoning: "Stock markets are crashing! There's a lot of 'free wealth' which needs new investments! Bitcoin is ideal for that!"

I don't see a single thing that could possibly induce enough incoming cash.  This thing is dying.  And it only takes another big screw-up to spark an ouflux(?) of cash, and a corresponding crash, especially when confidence is already low like this.

i don't know if you're referring to my reasoning but i never said that.

what i've been saying is that there appears to be a newfound revulsion of sovereign debt which appears to include US Treasuries.  if the selloff in US Treasuries continue, THAT will free up huge sums of USD's looking for a new home.

I'm not sure, I seem to remember someone saying that, and you seemed the most likely person ;)

Still though, why would a ramping stock market be good for bitcoin? By ramping you mean ramping up, right?

basically, when the USD goes down, all assets go up.  when the USD and UST's go down, all assets really go up.

Hm, I guess that sounds plausible :)