Bitcoin Forum

According to this report, which im sure there are a few, it speculates we
could be at the start of an end of year surge in bitcoin value. This is of
course bast on historical events but we all should be aware that past
events should not be used as a future prediction.

https://www.cryptoglobe.com/latest/2018/09/bitcoin-may-surge-in-the-last-quarter-of-this-year-seasonality-chart-shows/

In my opinion this report and others to follow no doubt will fuel the
speculation to end 2018 on a high.

Its really too early to call if the hype has started or starting already. Remember just a couple of weeks ago, we are above $7300 and everyone was elated to see the price being bump from $6300. However, in an instant all the hard work we done was thrown in the garbage because the price retreated back to $6K'ish. Remember the hype will go prior to SEC decision's  up to the end of the month, so as much as there is a hype, it can quickly go South once the decision is handled down (rejection most likely).

Well on second thought I really think there is no hype this year actually I can say it will be another dead cat bounce, But Prior to the Month of Oct the price will be sure good for bitcoin and we can go above $6000 mark value and will not take over the $7500 it will surely be close to that and I think another correction may occur upon getting to that value, Considering this I really think it is very early to say that a hype beyond this increase will sure occur.

Why do you need hype?We all need stable price growth.The hype itself can't help for that.It would just create a short term price bubble that will burst after one month.
I really want the bitcoin price to go under 6000 USD.A cheaper bitcoin price will force more people to buy because of the FOMO and they will be in a better position,when the price skyrockets.

Seasonality might be a thing, but if we look at what happened after the 2013 bull run, 2014 was a year without anything other than a continuous lower high down trend, and this seems to apply to 2018 as well. The year isn't over, and there might be a short lasting bullish upwards movement, but I don't think it will be strong enough to break several previous local highs.

It's better to just accept that we'll enter 2019 well under the $10,000 level. Historically the first few months of each year have always been the worst, so I expect some serious down movement there as well. It might even be where we end up setting the 'ultimate' bottom, which would then follow according to the ultimate bottom of January 2015 where the price tanked well under $200 but quickly went up from there.

My advice; remain neutral and don't expect anything from the market this year.

Hype fueled by historical prices? I don't think that there is such thing basically people who came here because of hype are gone already and the ones who are still sticking around are the ones who already have blend in with the system, they are either waiting for the opportunity to sell or buy or even both but the one thing they are not waiting for is hype brought by historical prices. I never have based my trades on their past performance as it is entirely inaccurate.

According to current market price of bitcoin we cannot expect the hype this year. If small pump happens then suddenly big dip takes place. This year is not good for bitcoin because it faces lot of dump only than pump. All are says end of this year bull run happens but bull run chances are very low.

I'm not sure if these type of news will carry enough fuel to trigger a bitcoin rally towards the end of year. The market is is bearish mode, and we're at the mercy of the whales, we'll have to wait and see what happens in the next couple of weeks, we still have that Bitcoin ETF that is yet to be approved or rejected.

If there's enough momentum no matter what the SEC's decision is (they'll most likely delay the etf) then there's a high chance that we'll see some upward movement after as a small drop as bulls will probably trigger a rally just to prove that we don't an etf in the market in order to see a growth in value.

I totally agree that past events shouldn't be considered an effective means of predicting the future, but you don't seem to be applying that principle to your writing here, nor do others in the thread. 

The whole article seems to be basing itself on the idea that if it just claims that seasonality is a thing and enough people see it, they'll believe it and it'll become true.  It seems to just be a self-fulfilling prophecy.

At the moment, Bitcoin seems to be in the midst of a settling down phase.  Wild speculation could be quite harmful to that.

Bitcoin prices dropped because of the huge hype and false expectations made by traders and researchers that affected the market overreacting to the delay in approval of the Vaneck-solidx Bitcoin ETF, a scenario directly or indirectly influenced by the US SEC decision that caused the Bitcoin price to fall

The price is very much playing now because we are not too confident in the current hype that might be a trap for the next few days, it is very wrong to see last year's picture suitable with the current conditions of course very different, from every psychological person to change not with last year's thinking , everything here just speculates to predict a market that is really unpredictable, remains low and believes that we will find a good point in the next few months.

We can't really denial that at this stage, there's no all-time-highs, no bull runs. The moment we accepted that premise, the better we can prepare ourselves and make the necessary adjustments.

Yes, its really hard to predict where the price is going, imagine in matter of minutes billions of dollars can be wipeout instantly without any warnings. So fore me, there's no hype coming, the ETF hype has died down and I already say to myself that it won't be the news that will turn this market around. I rather see a stable price around $6K rather than another bubble.

There is no hype in this year other than the ETF speculation but the prices were went to its original position of $6000 soon when it bumped over $8000 over a month ago after that it is just swinging in its range there is no activity found which can create the hype on the crypto currency market so this looks constant and tiring period for crypto currencies and all the investors by seeing the bumps and dumps for months.

there is no way we can be certain of that but there are enough reasons to believe that a surge even a small one is a strong possibility. for instance one of the biggest things to consider is the fact that price has been at the bottom for a long time now and every accumulation will lead to a surge eventually and being a the end of the year historically meant some sort of rise.
additionally we may see some ETF hype start up again and some whales may want to take advantage of it and make some more profit in the same pattern they have been doing for the past couple of months.

The recent market is little positive but last week big dump was occur in the market. How you expect this bull run was starting in this scenario. I think all the cryptocurrencies are damaged in the market so it takes more time to recover in all the cryptocurrencies so your thought comes true in future but not now in this scenario.

We've hit the roughly 6000 dollar bottom time and time again and volume is slowly getting lower and lower. Hype is really the wrong way to look at any recovery. If you look at 2014 and 2011 crashes both times the price recovery was very very slow and steady.

honestly, there does not seems to be any hype at the moment there was ETF hype but that also is drying out now as most people know what the decision of SEC is going to be. ETF is not coming until 2019 this is what people know now. But this is crypto and you never know when the hype may begin it just requires bitcoin price to move upward direction for few days and we will see a new hype.

Unfortunately, it looks like sentiment hasn't reset yet. Anytime we get a little bump in price, everyone still gets bullish and expects reversal. In my experience, we need more of a lull and possibly lower prices to shake out this hopeful sentiment. It feels too early for hype to reemerge.


True, but every one of these cycles has turned out differently. In 2014 it was all slow bleeding, then capitulation, rinse repeat. All this sideways tells me something different might be happening.

Normally, last quarter has always been known to be the period of surge right from the onset, and a lot of traders and investors are hoping this year will come with the same move but certainly too early to judge. Like you said, past move does not indicate what would happen on the future and I guess we can only hope for the best at this stage.

If something becomes so predictable that even lower tier traders start to pick up on it, we'll likely be close to a point at which the market will no longer react. I don't think we're very far away from that stage.

As far as I'm aware of, this month marks the last Vaneck ETF decision of 2018. If they once again delay their decision, it will be moved to Q1 of next year. I rather see them reject it entirely to make an end to all this speculation.

Most of what I have been reading here and on social media is whether or not the SEC will approve an ETF. It's working against the market with how everyone is overly bullish while there is no reason to be so.

Interesting points made. The general consensus is that the markets will remain
in a Bear trend for 2018 with some natural rise and falls as normal volatility continues.

Here's a few contrary examples. Q4 2011 was bearish. It's when the market crashed to it's lowest point before the next accumulation cycle began. Q4 2012 was a sideways market. Q4 2014 was mostly sideways, but December began the final crash to $150.

I don't see the point of trying to find these patterns. There's only one Q4 per year, so the total sample set is tiny. Timing the boom-bust cycle requires a lot more nuance than that. In fact, time is the most unpredictable part of the market in my experience.

You should stop trying to time the boom-bust cycle. People have tried and failed to do that in the equity markets, which has loads and loads of data. You will be hard pressed trying to get comparable data in the crypto market.
You are better off taking a long-term call and systematically investing / disinvesting.

I really doubt it. Not all reports are going to be accurate.

Considering that the 2013-2015 bear market lasted around half a year longer than this one has so far before any signs of bullish recovery came to the market, I think it's safe to say that it's extremely unlikely that we'll see a trend reversal by the end of the year.

Sure, there could be potentially a short term rally at any given moment near the end of the year, but I don't believe it's going to be able to be anything long term in terms of flipping the sentiment.

It's much more likely that we'll see prices recover as we get closer to 2020 as the halving gets closer. Besides, we may not have actually seen the bottom yet even though prices have settled at $6k or so for the time being, there is every chance that further dips may be coming.

I think you wrongly understand the ETF acceptance because still not accepting the ETF and price also fluctuating gradually in current market.
All the peoples are afraid in this situation because of bearish trend may be some little hype is satisfy your needs but true trends crypto market will not grow in this month.

Well i think people already saw how jumping carelessly on a hype can end up pretty bad for you like those who bought in close to the ath price early this year. And we're not even sure that an etf will be approved this time. And if it does, probably it will see the price grow a little for a short time. Many people short their trades because of fear that this bear market brought.

Following hypes does not help in anyway. The best thing to do most of the time is to simply monitor the trends and trade based on what you see. Sure, there is a huge optimism in the market judging from the way things have been in the past, but I guess time will tell of history will truly repeat itself or not.

All those sources just manipulating with your opinion. Once CNBC says bitcoin will go down, most likely it will go up averagely by 30% according to the previous stats with their announcements.
However, yes, some alts went up 100% and more yesterday, like VIBE, TNT etc, but today the market is crashing and that growth is going nowhere also..

We have a great surge of prices in the 4th quarter last year and hoping same thing happen this year. There is still enough time and the possibility of the uprising trend is still there. We never just lost our hope and keeping our trust will boost others to do so and never dump sell their coins. We will wait until end of 3rd quarter if there is an indication of surging, then definitely hype will come along.

I think with the current market conditions it is difficult to start because every time the pump starts and happens a few days later the dump price returns even lower than before, maybe this year it will be like that until the end of the year.

Every time people hope that it's the start of the bull run, price would then dump making more people frustrated than they have been. Instead of whining about it, people should just think of ways to take advantage of the rise and fall. When you check the chart, some signs are there that there is an impeding rise or fall because the range is getting smaller. It may happen or not sooner or later but when you study the charts, you can still trade and get small profits.

Price today is less than tomorrow, how can I say that yes the hype has started. The situation is different and towards downstream. This is because people are no more interested in bitcoin. They are putting their money in Altcoin. There are so many good and profitable coins that can make you rich in few months. Why one should waste his time and money in bitcoin?

It is likely that we are going to close with the price going up but not because of the previous years, but this is going to happen because markets move in cycles, and the current cycle of the prices of altcoins going down is probably going to end in October or November, this is why I'm trying to take good positions in some of the most well known altcoins and make money that way.

In current market price of bitcoin We will likely not see the hype this year, because the market is simply too volatile and there is no price recovery. In the second half of the year everything we have saw was small pump happens then suddenly big dip takes place.
Therefore, I was not so optimistic that we will end this year with hype

The ball still rolling and many changes may happen in the coming days before year end. It might be possible that there is no surge happens or it suddenly pump and hype. And if we compared  last year trend, there is a huge different and it won't gonna happen again this year.

Bitcoin is not a pump and dump coin, it has to be getting some solid resources to jump back and in the current scene, their are no chances of bitcoin price getting high. As per my calculation the max it can go is $10k nearby but that too after clearing two resistance of $7000 and $8000 price barrier then only we can see 10k price

It is possible that bitcoin is gaining back its popularity. My friends are already sending me private messages on how they can invest and gain profit in crypto. Last year, before the uptrend began, there was FUD about China all over the news and social media regarding BTC. This year, movement of big players and whales are making newbies nervous again. I believe Q4 will be the start of trend reversal.

We are on the Q4 of the year so we can expect this kind of articles that might possibly fomo the price a bit before hitting the main price surge though don't expect too much that it will be the same again like last year price surge and ATH achievements we may not be going to get there or another record of price might happen by the end of the year, hold your horses and stay alert from the news as always.

Nope. The hype doesn't really set in until long after a bull market is established, when price starts angling towards parabolic.

When large players are accumulating at the bottom, hype is nonexistent. The mainstream media loses interest, newbie investors are completely shaken out from the markets, most people think BTC and altcoins are dead, bears act like they rule the world, and the markets are usually pretty quiet.

That's potentially what's happening around $6,000 right now. If we're at the bottom now, I'd say hype will really set in a year from now, maybe longer.

Hype will start in the next year because in this day people are not investing in bitcoin and when there is no investment we will see no hype in the price. The more the investment the high will be the price. The less the demand the low will be the price. This is such a simple phenomenon as I mentioned above. We should be patient and wait for good times to come.

We know that bitcoin has a strong tendency to end the year by going up in value, it is something that many people are already waiting for because they want the price to recover, but that is not enough of a reason to think that we are seeing any kind of hype, at best I think this year could end with the price of bitcoin reaching 10000 or something similar like that.

There might be no hype for bitcoin right now but in other coins like XRP, its possible. Hopefully, whales are tired now to dump the market so in order for them to take profit they need to hype the market again. I also believe bitcoin will end this year at higher price compare the price today.

Hype in altcoins are different than in Bitcoin but it could affect the hype of Bitcoin mostly in altcoins. I don't if whales are still part of it but i don't see any relations to the current pump. I think it is because of the recent event of SEC and ETF that's why we saw an early pump yesterday but it just fell a little percentage of the price now.

Usually, as long as people will always want to relate historical events and tend to want to place it with what is happening currently, articles like this will suffice? A lot of people believe that the last quarter usually bring some goodies to the market and probably that is setting up some excitement in the market for a whole lot of enthusiast or those who are looking forward to at least recovering from the amount they bought during the peak. However, expecting a new ATH this year should totally be out of it.

People already know about bitcoin, the popularity has always been there and the news revolving around bitcoin right from the onset and all these things have been bringing a lot of enthusiasm for those who understand the benefit the future brings with this space and are looking for the right moment to be a part of it.

The hype has not started yet, and it will only start when you start seeing FOMO rushing in. With some good news though, we can see some pretty good push before the end of the year, but I would not consider something so serious.

I don't think so, but maybe it starts next year, there are a lot of ico running Q4, at least that's what I know. most likely there is a lot of growth shown by altcoins and it will be very influential on bitcoin.

I do not think that the hype is starting because today, the price is still not increasing that much so we better wait for a few months when all of the people are interested on cryptocurrency to invest again in order to earn more profit.

Well there hasn't been any results yet for that etf anyways although a lot of people are hyping that up. It's not even sure that it'll get approved. And until there's a consistent upward movement to back a hype up, it'll simply be just hype.

We cannot expect the hype now due to the price of bitcoin keeps on decreasing. The hype will start but not now it will take some time, now the price is fluctuating only. Neither it goes high nor it goes down, but never forget the past. Last year same situation happened but end of the year bitcoin would rock. Like that this year also happens people can expect this type of hype in this year. Let's hope with patience surely the price will increase at that time you can sell and earn more profit.

It is interesting that you say this because I think the opposite is actually happening, the whales are not dumping their coins, they are buying as many coins as possible so it is in their best interest to not let investors get hyped up about the market, they want the market to be as cheap as possible so they can get a lot of coins for a very low price and then when they are satisfied with the amount of coins they have they will begin to hype the market.

I've started to see the hype forming myself.  I have a few friends that are starting to buy bitcoin while the price is still cheap, they are confident it will be back over 20k within a short time.

Right now im 50/50 on things.

On one hand, I believe we've already bottomed, and we are not going to break below the $6k resistance line, and if we do, it will be a quick dip as usual, only to get bought up thus strengthening the cost of production theory. So worst case scenario, we stay at a stable price for a long time until next FOMO cycle to $100k+. All these guys predicting lower prices with their TA get proven wrong once again (just like the were wrong when calling lower peaks than $20k)

On the other hand, I feel like there's still too many noobs holding coins which may need to get triggered into panic selling before we can stat shooting for the next ATH. This may include someone famous rage quitting as well, which would mark the end of the bear market.

I too think so. People are fed up with the constant price swings at the same price. We are done seeing the price at $6.6k or somewhere 5-10% around that price. We want it to either go down properly so it can get back up to bigger numbers or we want it to at least directly skyrocket once again to show us it is still alive.

I think we need to really realize that whenever the price of bitcoin stays the same for a long time in the end a bull run comes. Check out the historical data, it won't show you "bitcoin goes up every December" or something these new people think but it will show you whenever bitcoin stays at the same price for a long time it skyrockets all of a sudden.

Ask them if they have some diapers and painkillers stocked up.  ;D



There were attempts at causing panic. If you analyse the charts you will see these short dumps by whales meant to liquidate newbies. They are always followed by a big buyback. It did not work and they seem to have allowed the things to unfold on their own. This month there will be another attempt for sure.

I don't know about the hype, but the crypto money market is getting a thrill.

Hmm. A very nice analysis of the previous occurrence. You are right as timing a cycle is not even something anyone can do and the market as a whole asides time, is even unpredictable, since we can see the future anyway. However, with the patterns in the past, one could hope it repeats itself again, but then again, only time can really tell us if it will repeat itself or not. I really would not expect so much in this quarter 4 anyway but the market might want to take little breath for a while, and then get to continue the downtrend like you said in 2019 before eventually recovering/

The market is still in a downtrend and I wonder why people would be thinking of some hype when the conditions are not even favorable. I really do not expect what the OP said would bring about any hype as we will certainly need more than that to even be able to see some huge demand and then the price skyrocketing towards the end of the year. What I would expect is just probably some short term uptrend, and then we will be back again trying to pick the remaining pieces at the bottom, or more bottom as the case may be.

Don't ever to expect Bitcoin price will turn back into $20K again as it hype last year.
We already saw green color on the market and prices seems to quietly moving up but isn't enough to say that it is on hype.

Just get out of article and do your own real research instead of predicting the articles or news taken by someone else. We do have lot many good news with  positive future of crypto currencies. Why and how can you missed such articles and picked up the one which is not useful to the community. This is nothing helpful. Create and spread positive articles so that new investors who do see your article see your good news and spread across.

Usually people treat market as turning bull when the price rallies by 20% and the other way round a 20% loss in a short time means the bear market is coming. For the price to be considered bullish we'd have to go to 8500 dollars. Anything below will not be a clear indicator and can be a continuation of the previous bear pattern.

You just nailed it mate, as you have mentioned the users especially those who have less knowledge about crypto predicts a bullrun for little pump in the value of bitcoin and the same group of users create panic with posts like end of crypto bear market and all when the value drops for 3 continuos days. We need a strong signal and a consistent growth in the value of bitcoin in order to confirm the bull market.

That's why some other people caught by the bull trap since they take those trap pump so much and try to earn with the certain movements on crypto nowadays. And I think the bull run event will not happen on these year esince the decline still occuring and it will be suit for us if we just ride earn little by little and didn't put to much expectation on these level  aswell your right we can only call the bull run is starting if we can see the peice jumping unto $8500 upwards.

And we haven't gotten both. So far there's been a couple of decent uptrends in the past but a few hundred doesn't guarantee there's a continuity. And thus time, i think it's not going to be the same as last year. If ever, not that many would jump on hypes this time. People will be a little more cautious will many selling with just a little pump.

The hype of bitcoin is due its market price. Which is suprise everyone. It is the first virtual currency have the market price like this. And this hype of bitcoin help ut to increase its user number. Market popularity etc. And Because of this many people invest their money in it. Another thing which is truly responsible for its hype is its money transaction facility. Many people use it for national and international money transaction and also use it as a currency exchanger and most importantly many people use it for their business purposes.

In whatever we need another bullish trend in other to get back what we have lost since this bearish market.  2018, has been mark with alot of bad and fakes news and this in turn affects the market in the bad way.  I think we need to buy more now as December is already in are front.

Some investors are noting it is time to start buying again we are in sideways market right now we could have a breakout in the next few months.

I no doubt agree that now is the right time to buy more Bitcoin. I do not believe , that price could go down significantly more.

yes it will back to the ATH soon but in my view not on this year because short time is not enough  time to reach that value again which is even 2 months isn't enough unless the growth rapidly increase to the ath . 'cause unfortunately nowadays market has no enough strength to constantly growing due to the current situation, which the main reason why market become stagnant until now. And IMO probably even 10k is impossible aswell until year end.  

I would not be so affirmative on that and that depends on how soon you are referring to anyway. Yes, the chances are there, and we could peradventure get to see the market make a good move one way or the other towards the bullish side since the sentiment in the market right now seem a little bullish but there is no clear direction yet.

In the long run, new ATH is something we will get to see with more mass adoption and I would not doubt that at all, considering that we are pretty much low in percentage of adoption globally right now, but as we start seeing mainstream adoption and real life usage, the sky is the starting point.

This is what makes holding bitcoin so interesting to me, this is not only about making money or being part of a revolution that is going to change the world to me this is very interesting as well because the movements of bitcoin are so abrupt and difficult to predict that just watching the market moves is really interesting, because I like to try to find explanations of why the market moves the way it does even if sometimes there is no explanation at all.

I don't think hype started, because if we say there's a hype we could observe any quick price increase which eventually occurs during trading. Many live trades will happen and those hype situations of each increasing value will be seen on some selected price of each coins. For now hype could possibly be seen, but suddenly fall back due to bull trap.

The hype has been suppressed right now due to bearish market, and the manipulator couldn't established their plans to initiate a plot for market pull down. If the hype will show up, I guess it will immediately be grabbed by sellers so it will not become effective.

I guess that bull trap also was the reason, but still I believe people nowadays became more agressive due to loss of funds that why they're selling asset even how small the value is.

I would not expect a huge downturn either. At this point, I want to believe that the market has really been holding up strong at least for the mean time, and even though we have not seen a clear direction yet, the optimism is somehow channeled towards the bull side as the case may be.

Sure, it is not a time to be getting overly excited yet until we see a clear direction but however things end up turning out, the trend and time will always give it to us and by then, we will know what we should be doing next. For now, we just wait and see how things would pan out.

I think you are right about the timing. I think it will reach 20k once again but it won't be this year, you are right about that. It is not only that there is not enough time left because last year it went from 3k to 20k in two months so if it were to happen again it would happen however this time it is because we are coming out of a bear run that has been going on for 10 months and even longer maybe.

However last year bitcoin went from 700-900 dollar levels to 3k levels, yes it did dropped a bit time to time but in general it was going up and than it went up to 20k, we need bitcoin to reach 8-9k before it can go to 20k so I am waiting for it to reach those levels first.