Bitcoin Forum

So let's compare the hangover years after the last 2 halving pumps.

2014: the year of the alts, every week several coins would pump 10x+, some pumped 100x in a week or 2. Exchanges were free to use anonymously.

2018: Every exchange now requires users to jump through hoops with identity verification/kyc bullshit. US citizens are banned from using most exchanges.
The alt scene it completely dead, if a coin goes up by 2x over a month that is a huge deal. Trading alts to make more bitcoins is nothing but a memory.

What is the result of these differences - is it possible bitcoin will never pump again due to crypto trading action being permanently dead and trading becoming so difficult and transparent it's no longer worth playing with?

There is no reason Bitcoin would die. Maybe it means the shit altcoin market will die as the market matures (though I doubt it). Right now it is better to compare to 2015. 2015 was when the last cycle hit the bottom of the market and hung out there ($200-$300) for a bunch of months. We seem to already be out of the bear market (2014) and we are now in the low volatility not much happening phase between before the next bull market kicks up in the coming months. Granted in 2015 there were probably plenty of alts bouncing around as well.

But while volatility in the alt market was up back then as compared to now, remember the size of the alt market was absolutely microscopic compare to how large it is now. The altcoin market (or just non-bitcoin market if you consider ETH not an altcoin) is $100 billion. Back in 2014/2015 the altcoin market was less than a billion! The altcoin market is literally 100 - 200 times larger now than it was back then, so yea of course it is going to be less volatile now. It's still full of mostly shit but now it takes a lot more money to move that shit around.

Trading is the only hope of crypto hype but current situation most of the investors are panic in crypto investment. So we need some legalisation or crypto adoption because peoples are believe the government or private industries so they adopt the Bitcoin or altcoin surely it will going to moon. I think we don't consider the past and present status of crypto because already it will make big impact of crypto in entire world so we need more crypto hunters in this situation.

The number of people involved in 2017, and in those ye olden times there was just as much 'bullshit' as today, was vastly higher than 2013. Looks like they're happy enough with things as they are.

It's always easy to think things will never improve when they're dead, flat or sideways. Then it seems painfully obvious in retrospect that excitement was due.

Alts in 2017 were so empty and so insulting I don't see how they can do any more than a cursory pump until they're fully deflated. They have a long way to go before all of the hot air is gone from them. In 2014 they were still tiny and didn't have to justify their valuations. They were toys. Now they're a daily reminder of how stupid people are.

But back then, there were many opportunities to make a lot of money or make your bitcoin holding grow exponentially by playing with the shitcoin pumps. Now, this opportunity seems gone forever due to the super high valuations of the top 100 coins, the lack of new coins/icos and all this stupid kyc garbage at every exchange. So basically, the only way for new people to enter (or old people to grow their crypto holdings) is by buying large mkt cap coins with fiat. My question is what made crypto great seems to have been taken away - anonymity and volatility. What's really the point vs just playing the stock market now? are we down to the only hope being mainstream adoption? if that's the case I don't really see another pump anytime soon, possibly never, since the speculation factor seems gone. Actual adoption has never done anything for crypto prices, the mere speculation that it would in the future is the only thing that has driven prices.

You also forgot one factor, there's are less trading platform in 2014, majority are playing in Mt. Gox. But it was hacked, the landscape change that's why it went dry from 2013-2014.

In 2018, there's a lot of regulations due to the 2017 hype, well alts went dead because of the same thing that brought it to life, ICO. A lot turns out to be scam, plus majority of projects that holds Ethereum dumps their reserves to liquidate in order for the project to maintain its business.

And then there's this thing, investors are getting smarter as well. They wouldn't normally just throw their money in the bear market. They decided to wait for good news before jumping again.

That's a good point - investors are smarter now, so that is another reason it is much less likely to pump big again - stupid money is gone.

I see crypto:
1. not fun anymore
2. not exciting anymore
3. looking like the only winners anytime soon (or possibly ever will be from here) are people who got in over a year ago and no opportunities to make up for that with trading since volatility is out the window

Someone say something optimistic

not quite accurate. early-mid 2014 was alt season. during that time, BTC was arguably in a sideways market following the crash. by late 2014 when the bear market was in full swing, alts were a goddamn bloodbath.

alts go in cycles just like BTC---in a bullish/sideways BTC market, they can pump. when BTC is in the throws of a bear market, you should generally stay as far as possible.


this is just the hangover period. it's a necessary part of the market cycle. just wait until the consensus is that "alts are dead" or "bitcoin will never pump again". it's when everyone has given up on the market and the hype is dead that sellers have usually dried up---everyone who plans to sell has already sold. that's when pump season can happen again.

You aren't acknowledging my point about the current lack of volatility (opportunity) and how much of a GD pita it is to even be accepted to trade on todays exchanges. Ffs, most have banned US citizens. Not only that, anonymity is out the window. These are the changes I am talking about, how can crypto pump again in this horrid environment?

lack of volatility is just part of the market cycle. markets don't just bubble and crash all day every day. the vast majority of time is spent in ranging consolidation at lower volumes. this is true of all markets, not just crypto. we just had a massive 2-3 year bull market. have some patience. ;)

the regulatory environment is frustrating, but it's just creating a tiered environment. i'm a trader from the USA. i use a combination of binance and bitmex to trade altcoins without KYC, as well as decentralized exchanges

i also use GDAX for my "legit" trades since i did KYC there, and it seems like they're planning to list a bunch of new markets. i hate KYC and limit the places i'm willing to do it, but you'd be surprised at how many people don't even give it a second thought. it's also not an issue for corporate traders and firms/funds.

i really think the lull in hype and volume has everything to do with the fact that we just had a bubble last year, not the current situation with exchanges.

I have seen more Bitcoiners say that throughout the years, and each time they have been proven wrong. In current environment it makes no longer any sense to think that altcoins will go away or deflate entirely.

We might not like what altcoins are doing, but there is enough space for other networks to function alongside Bitcoin. They need to figure out how to turn speculation into actual use.

Once the use starts to take over, some of the altcoins will no longer be the crap we right now think they are. In the same way, Bitcoin hasn't really gained much use throughout the last years. It's 95% speculation 5% use.

Back in the very early days it was the exact opposite. 95% usage 5% speculation. It was an actual currency.

"Back in the very early days it was the exact opposite. 95% usage 5% speculation. It was an actual currency."

You mean when it had a million dollar market cap and hardly anyone thought it would actually be worth anything significant?

I wasn't paying much attention to alts back then, but what you're saying about BTC price action definitely resonates with me. In 2015, I unfortunately was viewing the post-crash sideways as a bearish consolidation, so I kept shorting it......old trading wisdom often says that a trend followed by sideways means continuation is coming.

I actually did pretty well in fiat terms back then because the market kept giving back gains, but lost a lot of coins. Lesson learned! Now I'm well aware this type of price action can be a launch pad as well. I definitely wouldn't be selling coins here.

I agree with your statement,it's easier to make profit and see the coin price multiply in past years, now we got tons of alt and tons of regulations for crypto, and the kyc requirement make the crypto investment same with Fiat investment,so the regulations is disadvantage for crypto, and I think we won't see any huge rising anymore in crypto

How can crypto go back to the good days? I fear it's only going to get worse from here, and what made crypto cool is gone forever. Wtf is the value in it now with no anonymity, no way to transfer it freely around exchanges, no volatility opportunity to increase wealth, US citizens being locked out - I think this scene is dead man walking.

What happened in the past doesn't really have to repeat itself at all. What happened in 2014 was related to mtgox and right now we do not have anything remotely similar to mtgox happening yet price keeps falling and not increasing.

It is true that the only similarity is people got really excited and many people said "I wish I bought at 250 dollar prices before it went to 1400 dollars" yet when it was $1400 they didn't (me included) purchased it and when the price fell down they were like "told you!" and then it reached $20k.

It was still at around 900 dollars at around 2017 last year summer before it skyrocketed. So, we may or may not wait a long time but I doubt it would be similar.

No thats not really the case, the base protocol is improved if anything.    I was trading around 2014 just the same and the failure of a major exchange at that time seemed more negative then now, again it was not a failing of the protocol.
Peer to peer the crypto space remains just as able as previous years.   Centralised sites of trading is always its own risk and benefits but not a description of overall sucess or usage for BTC.   

Another point most important is that USA is not BTC, this is only one country and to me BTC was always about the billions around the world who especially do not benefit from the current banking system.    The attractions for someone in the west who can transfer instantly was always more questionable but a cheap to use network in many other countries is often not there and BTC continues to have a good base case for usage

you are looking at things in a very simplified way by using halving as a point of reference for a 4 year long period! no market is affected by one cause like halving like this for 4 years!

1. from the early days that altcoins were created with the goal of being pumped and dumped we are having big altcoin pumps nearly every day. it has never been consistent 10x per day but pretty close to it and it is still happening as we speak today.
2. again from early days whenever an exchange needed to work with fiat and banks they were asking for KYC because that was required of them. these days in some countries regulations are becoming more serious but I don't see your point in mentioning this here!

the alt scene is pretty much the same bullshit as ever. just because YOU don't see more than 2x pumps over a month that doesn't mean they aren't happening. of course the 2017 pumps has left most of them damaged and still dumping but the big pumps are still happening because the pumpers still want money and there are enough newbies left to scam.

bitcoin will never pump again. in fact it has been about 5 years that bitcoin is not pumpable because the market has grown big enough that prevents any "pump" from happening. besides bitcoin is not some pump and dump shitcoin that you can pump!

none of the things you said so far has anything to do with bitcoin though! bitcoin price will continue to rise as its adoption is going to continue to grow. with more demand and its scarce supply that is inevitable.

but no it will never be pumped again. 2013 was the last time we saw a pump performed by Mt Gox.

Pursuer if you don't think 2017 was a pump and alts are going 10x weekly these days I'd like to know what drugs you are on, because they must be really goooood.

your problem is that you are looking at altcoins and their pump and dumps. then take a look at a small portion of bitcoin price rise and then make your decision and call the whole bitcoin rise a "pump"!

2014 has passed away, now we should think about the future. According to the current situation of the market, the price will remain the same atleast till the end of this year. Let’s see what happens in the next year, hope it will be better than this one. Anyway if I knew about bitcoin in 2014, I would bought minimum 10000 bitcoin and now I will be the richest person of my community.

That's what happens with some of these folks who are hoping so much for a bitcoin crash, yet they are unable to understand the difference between bitcoin and crypto overall.  They think (or at least purport to think, to the extent that they are being genuine in their shill/troll attempts) that crypto is all one BIG amalgamated mess, and bitcoin is just one of the bunch.  It is certainly a misinformation framework that is created by these shill/trolls, who might even act as if they are pro-bitcoin since that seems to get them more reception/attention for their non-sensical and ill-substantiated points.

It has a really big difference between on that year if you compare this present year to the pass. Before few people are known bitcoin(crypto) it means the holders too aren't too much compared on this year. Because of many waves of panic sellers on this year bitcoin and other alts drastically going down so, we need stronger hand holders and stop spreading fud news. Passed is pass try to look out the future, years passed is not the comparison to the market price movement.

In 2014 new altcoins were popping up almost daily. Now that had almost stopped. All we have are startups crowdfunding their founds with ICOs. And then claim that is utility token.

Not exactly. For instance, if you exchange crypto for crypto on Hitbtc, no ID is needed. I think that KYC is mainly required if you're dealing with fiat-crypto situations. As for the market - I am not it will restore its value, but hopefully the latter will become more and more based on usage of cryptocurrencies and the relevant demand for them. Trading became harder with fiat, but between cryptos it's still fine anyway. People just left the market. They'll come back when they know better than panicselling and stuff like that. I lost about $1k because of a huge dump forever (because I needed to withdraw some btc during the bad times), but I  am still glad to see that the market is more stable than it used to be.

A-ha, sure. Now you know there are more than 2 thousand of various coins, some of them 100% will go parabolic in the future, but I doubt you are buying any of them right now. Always easy to talk knowing the end result.

It's starting to take over rapidly, where soon every compliant exchange will no longer allow even crypto to crypto trades without verification. Bittrex is already doing it.

Hitbtc is a horrible exchange, they likely won't ever plan to become compliant to the extent of forcing every user to verify itself. It makes Hitbtc a ticking time bomb with how at any time of the day authorities can raid the crap out of them and turn them into BTC-E (now WEX) 2.0.

I don't often pay attention to lunatics such as John McAfee when it comes to price speculation, but he is 100% right on how much of a problem exchanges as Hitbtc are to this ecosystem.

Read; https://bitcoinist.com/john-mcafee-anti-corruption-hitbtc/

This is the state of the market you have carefully analyze in three to four line.  The market is becoming more transparent by the day and the usual pumping that we do have due to some loopholes created are no longer there.  I think now the best thing to do is to  buy bitcoin and hold as many altcoins are not going to survive in a long run.

I really hate this, but let's look at the comparison between 2014 and 2018. The most prominent difference is something that makes bitcoin prices fall. this year the price of bitcoin was dropped due to the many negative news and ico scam.

maybe, but i believe as soon as these exchanges do something like that, they sign their own death warrant and make another new exchange huge.
for example you can look at the case of Bittrex and Binance. last year bittrex was one of the biggest exchanges with near #1 volume, overnight bittrex changed its rules and forced KYC. people left it for a brand new exchange at the time (Binance) and now Binance is #1.
if this trend goes on, centralized exchange of crypto-crypto will die and decentralized way will replace it.

bittrex is based in the USA though. and they were being pressured by the government---hence all the business with confiscating the funds of iranians.

you think binance would succumb to such pressure? when the japanese government warned them over operating without licenses, they just moved operations elsewhere and continued serving japanese customers. there's obviously a big difference between eg coinbase and bittrex vs binance and bitfinex regarding willingness to roll over to government authority.

Doubtful. Most would've been too scared to buy after seeing a fall of that size.

I well remember the moment it fell to $160 or so in early 2015. Someone looking back would claim to have been jubilant and buying as much as possible. The reality was it was a depressing sight which passed with little more than some glum comments.

Everything looks obvious in retrospect. At that time it still felt like a real possibility that all of this could dwindle to nothing. I don't feel that way any more and that's the prime difference between now and that year. It might be boring and depressing. There's also an incredible amount more legitimacy and activity these days. Back then it was just starting to warm up.

Incredible amount more legitimacy and activity now - can you elaborate? what I'm seeing is a lessening of use cases tied to government pressure.

Futures, Goldman Sachs and others toying with entering trading and custody services, Bakkt launching next month with NYSE backing among others, GBTC having had several years of successful operation, proper regulation in places like Japan, Malta and other countries making noises about it.

All of that would've seemed ludicrous in 2013/14.

I know you're determined to be sad so I'll stop now.

Use cases like shopping, remittances and others will go nowhere until Bitcoin is much larger than it is now. All of the current implementations will disappear.

Futures is not a good thing for price growth in my opinion, and it certainly isn't the sort of activity I'm talking about. Since the futures market started, Non-crypto Wallstreet players have made a lot of money on the falling bitcoin. This so far is the only result of the futures market.
I'm not being sad, I'm trying to figure out if bitcoin is even worth watching from here - there's a difference.

It's another pillar in the foundation of something that's here to stay. It may not seem like much fun now, but it's inevitable for something that has plans to stick around. Nothing of sufficient size fails to get futures markets.

By this stage it would be somewhat weird and unsettling if they weren't here.

By the sounds of it Winslow you think there is nothing that is a good thing for growth, apart from not having KYC. I highly suggest that you stop posting here, delete your account, and forget about bitcoin. If you are not convinced about the future of Bitcoin from its limited supply, halving in inflation rate, the previous price history, ongoing protocol development, new and old companies entering the market, ongoing adoption, and so on, nothing will convince you of it's worth.

You are not meant to be an early adopter of disruptive technology that requires significant investment, your mental state and impatience prevents that. Know your limitations and find a mature market where those limitations won't be a problem.

Spoken like someone who has already gotten rich from crypto or holding 10 cent coins, thanks for the advice but I can make my own decisions from here. What I'd like to see is some informative discussions regarding current issues bitcoin is facing.

There is reams of informative discussion going back several years now. In addition, there is plenty of informative discussion for your so called 'current issues', by which I can only imagine you believe are price related.

You are missing the bigger picture because you and others are focusing on the price. If you focus on the actual development of the protocol itself, the industry developments building around Bitcoin, and the problems of the legacy financial system and governments, you might just decide that Bitcoin is a good long-term investment, which is the conclusion I came to after the mid 2013 bubble and then again after the end of 2013 bubble.

If that, and what has been written to you in this thread, is not enough to make a decision on your investment I don't know what will, and I think you will never be convinced. So, don't waste you time here anymore and go elsewhere to find a investment that agrees with you.

This is just a bunch of rhetoric. Why don't you specify what bitcoin's use case is going forward with all of the government pressure on exchanges to kyc traders and less and less altcoin action. Assuming "they" are successful at eliminating speculation profits from crypto, what's to give it future value? so far, in my eyes that's been bitcoin's main use case.

I don't need to specify anything. I'm convinced of Bitcoin's merit and I don't care if you or anyone else is not.

You seem to have a hard time focusing on anything except exchange issues, like they matter for Bitcoin's development, they don't. However, if you strongly think that government pressures on exchanges matter so much, don't invest, simple. As I keep saying go invest somewhere that is within your mental limitations.

You may also want to research the difference between the meaning of prices and values, otherwise I suspect you will also have trouble investing in the more traditional markets.

So instead of answering the question you call me stupid and tell me to go away- typical bulltard reaction.

the market game they play actually depends on how much profit they get. if they get a big profit in one coin they will maintain the price, but if the coin is a scamcoin they will only do a bubble to rob you of money. this is in my opinion and opinion

when you make a comparison you shouldn't bend the facts and only use 2 or 3 aspects that you like and relate to your false conclusion. and that is why everyone is disagreeing with you.
in the end it doesn't matter though. people like you have been doing the same thing for as long as bitcoin has been around. you can find similar topics like your if you go to high pages in this board (pages 300-400). they basically are saying the same thing when price was $10 too.

Yeah right, I've answered you and so have others. Think about your argument for a second, it's the same as 'I won't buy any stock in this company because I believe the government will regulate the stock exchange further'. Stupidity or trolling, simple.


Spot on, this kind of topic has been posted numerous times over the years. I can only hope it's trolling because if all these posters are genuine I pity them for their stupidity.

I heard the mane of cryptocurrency in 2017 when bitcoin become 9 years old. I don’t know what happened in 2014, but I know that the investors of 2014 are now millionaires due to bitcoin investment. They bought for very low price almost few dollars and sold them in 2017 for a huge price and earned thousands of dollars in each bitcoin. This is called luck.

Wtf are you talking about? it's like you and others just gloss over what I'm saying without taking any time to understand and just write it off as general fudding.
The kyc requirements of exchanges today and the banning of US citizens from more and more exchanges is totally unprecidented. Trading/speculation has been bitcoins biggest use case by far and it is slowly being taken away, and this is a huge difference from this last halving pump from the ones before it. My question is what effect this will have going forward?
Most here are simply not mentally capable of understanding what I'm even talking about and are in their own little world expecting $20k by the end of this year. This is an echo chamber.

Are you absolutely certain about that?

https://www.coindesk.com/fidelity-reveals-cryptocurrency-and-digital-asset-trading-platform/

https://medium.com/bakkt-blog/newhire-launch-c5dd55254566

So Americans find it harder to get on fuckholes like Bitfinex and Bitmex. Boo hoo.

no, it's been happening for years. bitstamp implemented mandatory KYC in 2013. bitmex banned USA residents back in 2015. the market has become increasingly segregated over the years due to the regulatory uncertainty around non-KYC for crypto-only trading and serving american markets.


that's not really a use case; traders can speculate on anything. i don't see evidence that it's being "taken away" either. over time, we shouldn't be surprised if money flows towards licensed exchanges and/or ones that implement KYC. they're much safer places to keep trading funds than offshore exchanges shrouded in secrecy.


i've been here since 2013. i know what a bubble looks like, and i know what comes after. i'm not expecting another bubble anytime soon.

the only noticeable differences between now and 2014:

1. markets are much more liquid now.
2. much more algo-trading activity now.

the effects going forward are the same as they ever were. the market becomes more segregated between exchanges that want to serve USA customers and those that don't.

no my friend, you are incapable of creating a proper intelligible comment!
you start by calling bitcoin rise for the past 6 years a "halving pump" and that alone reduces your comment's value and shows your lack of understanding about bitcoin and its value.
and then you follow it up with false assumptions of your own without any basis. @figment explained this well enough above this comment.

How can trading be dead, in any market with high volatility (crypto is still probably the highest even though it's much less than it used to be) there will always be big losers and big winners. Just because it's no longer easy to predict the next big 10x coin doesn't mean that some people can't and aren't doing it.