Bitcoin Forum

I would like to bet on the mid-term elections in the USA. Are there any long-running legit prediction markets that are somewhat liquid where I can do this?

I haven't paid attention to the Bitcoin gambling space for a while, so I am out of touch with the scene. How can I vet the site that I bet on? There seem to be a few Bitcoin betting review sites, but they all have affiliate links, so it looks like they will shill for just about anyone that gives them an affiliate deal.

this is the only one i am aware of right now
https://nitrogensports.eu/sport/specials/us-midterm-elections
Nitrogensports in itself is very trusted and always pays out

and then theres
https://www.onehash.com/category/special_events/politics
but their betting is mutual, so that means the odds change depending on peoples bets there

Apart from the above mentioned website, I know one more website that accepts bitcoins for betting on literally anything in the world. I have seen few politics related betting options as well in that website,

https://www.betmoose.com/

Betting link of US presidential election: https://www.betmoose.com/bet/will-trump-still-be-president-in-2019-3842

Hope this helps!

I know OneHash (https://www.onehash.com/category/special_events/politics) provides a place for political betting, but volume on the site seems pretty low currently as well as historically; I'm pretty sure betmoose is much more popular than onehash for political betting, as I recall the volume was relatively high during the last American election.

OneHash has a relatively long Bitcointalk thread (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=960158.0), and the account for OneHash is actually in the green for DT trust, so there aren't any major issues with the site. Generally speaking, most crypto gambling sites have a thread somewhere in the Gambling section, and you'll be able to find any positive or negative reports there. I use the format "(Site Name) Bitcointalk" on google, and I can usually find a main thread for the site in question using this.

Thanks for the replies. I wound up putting in a bet on BetMoose because they had the volume to handle my wager.

On One Hash, the volume was so low, that my bet would crush their odds.

Nitrogen only had bets on US Senate Races, which I am not interested in.

Good luck, everyone!

Basically depending on what type of political betting it is, there will be many options as the time gets near.

I remember during the Hilliary and Trump election, the forum was filled with people wanting to take private bets and people wanting to act as escrow for these dealings. That and there was almost a bunch of crypto and non-crypto betting website which were playing the odds on who would win.

If you actually bet on Trump the day prior or the hours leading up to his victory, you had a good risk/reward ratio because I remember at the time, Hilliary was in the lead and most people were betting on her. However we all saw what quick turn that took.

I also remember that the markets went crazy when Trump won the election. Mostly the Crypto markets were dead but all of a sudden the forex and stock indicies went crazy, and I basically could tell right then and there who won.

Morning!

Thank you for brining us into the subject. As mentioned, OneHash offers the political (and events in general) betting options.

Since we operate as a mutual betting, the odds can change over time, but the trends make them more attractive than in regular bookies most of the time.
Also, the experience shows us, that if 1 big player comes in, he brings others to the table who want to bet with/against him :)
Trump-Clinton 26.5 BTC in pool  https://www.onehash.com/event/special_events/usa_presidential_election_2016/12867

Are there any events you'd like to see and bet on? Write in this thread or click "suggest event" on our website.

Good day and big wins!
Eric from OneHash
 

There are mainstream gambling sites like 5dimes.eu that accept bitcoin deposits and cater to US residents. (Just to give you another option and different perspective on things)

There used to be a bitcoin website that allowed users to create events to bet for or against but that site seems to have died awhile ago. A lot of attempts at being innovative or progressive in crypto that seemed like good ideas, for whatever reason, didn't pan out.

Having used bitcoin gambling sites since 2011 or 2012, there have definitely been a lot of them that folded. It could be #worth it to stick to tested and tried sites that have been in operation for awhile.

I think it is too risky. Gambling should not be something that much emotionally invested in. We are voting for someone and than also gambling to hope that same person (or bet on the other person if you believe whoever wins) would win. Gambling should never be really based on politics or anything remotely emotionally invested thing. We are talking about having a person run a country for some years that would definitely make some part of a country really upset and sad which you expect them to also put gambling on top of that.

I guess we should keep it based on gambling casino games or if its sportsbook type thing than let it be just "sports"book and nothing further. Any real life decisions to be made should not become part of a gambling topic people would bet on.

I too agree with you but for the below mentioned betting scenario, I can bet my fortune against Trump!

https://www.betmoose.com/bet/will-trump-still-be-president-in-2019-3842

Trump is not going to make it to White House in 2019 again!

I've seen some weird lines on Bitcoinrush, but they put it under specials or special events. You can always look online for these kind of bets, but mostly you'll find it at UK sportsbooks (fiat only). I remember Betfair always always does election odds, and you can sometimes find them on Fairlay too (which I guess works like Onehash above).

Last 2 elections, if you bet on "unexpected outcomes" like Brexit and Trump, you would make a lot of money ;)

I don't know anything about politics betting specially a US politics elections. Maybe I just see what other people say about this and try to have interest in this kind of betting.

I pretty much understand what you are driving at, but in the real sense, believe you me, when it comes to political betting sometimes, you may actually see a lot of glaring things for you to know the likelihood of what will be happening.

Yes, there is a lot of emotion already attached to who you want to vote for and betting sometimes can even hype it up, but in some cases, and like avikz said, I will actually be glad to place some bet like the one he mentioned, knowing that the chances will most definitely be slim for Trump.

It is good though that the OP settled with betmoose, this is the first time I would be hearing that platform even exists.

;D I could not just stop laughing when I saw this. Honestly, I will be so happy to share the bet with you in this case, considering the rate at which trump is really stepping on a lot of toes and the citizens of the country, both black and white in a way, but one way or the other, sometimes, even if you want to make things right, trust me, not everyone will like it.

But I feel this dude is not just diplomatic enough to handle some situations without eyebrows being raised, and i feel he just talks too much for a president. I would not bet my fortune against him though, but in the real betting world, I would actually bet hugely against him.

This would be interesting. I have heard a lot about political predictions especially on augur blockchain. I guess politics will be easy to predict.
 How would you handle a situation where a lot of people are making the right predictions? Or are there more complicated ways of handling the whole thing?

In my country  offline betting companies are coming up and in this political season I sow many betting on who will be the next president.  I have not see any one online though!

I have seen this kind of betting on Onehash and if you'll try to re-read the whole thread it was suggest above. Just proceed to the link given and you'll see those bets that are related to politics. But as for checking now, I haven't seen one as there's no available to bet with but as soon as there's an available, you can bet with it.

Here's the link;

Hey even I have yet to see a site which is offering odds on US political elections, honestly such a bet would be very tricky given the unpredictability of USA voters. I feel currently Trump is a leading candidate for now, but when it comes down to voting we can’t really predict how it’ll go. I feel the voters are divided on him which is helping him, but will it be enough for him to claim a victory only time will tell.

This is truly an untapped market by blockchain related gamble houses. I would also love to bet on our presidential election coming up in 4days time 16th February 2019 but can't find any house offering that service maybe they haven't considered Africa countries due to the high level of election rigging and most election isn't free and fair.

sure it is tricky because every people have a different minds . they think differently and some already have thier favoritism  . some are voting because they are bieng paid  . election campaign do also play's a major role for getting adequate number of votes   .  anyway , this is my first time to hear a gambling about politicians  . its bizzare but its so cool at the same time  .  people are such genius and verry creative  because they involve everything they see in gambling  .

I hope that the elections will be online so we can watch that moment besides that, I don't know about US elections, and I think we can only watch on the television or the online. I hope that the elections will not full of tricks (although there is no guarantee for the clean political in every country) so people can choose their candidate with a right.

I  find this kind of betting interesting.. Been thinking about it for a while now. Unfortunately, I detest listening to political stuff, makes me uncomfortable. Are there no gambling aside politics or Sport betting? How popular/interesting can they be?  I would love to try betting cryptocurrency in other areas like , tech,, weather lol.  No politics,  showbiz/entertainment, fashion orsports.

I don't understand why people are sometimes passionate about political betting. It may loom like an easy option to win some money but for me this kind of betting is the most complicated one to win.

Since you are asking about Us mid term elections I think you should consider that Russia has influenced in Trump becoming president. I am not saying this is 100% sure but the book of Hillary Clinton "My truth" looks like it was some outside intervention for real.

This makes betting on politics worse than in different sport betting.

Any suggestions please? What are your thoughts on augur prediction market — it is an ethereum based betting platform. I read you cany bet on anything on the platform. Anyone one tried it before?  What are your experiences?
Are there similar platforms

I have heard first of this kind of betting which can be done by predicting the winner of the election. This will be really interesting and i wish i could also take part in such a betting if it happens.

Where such idea looks quite interesting, there is this possibility for such bets to be partially illegal.
I'm obviously lacking the knowledge with all the laws being in play throughout African states, I can only transpose it to my local election ordinance. Looks like having an open and active poll about ongoing elections has the possibility to be in conflict with so called election silence. Some over-zealous lawyer can interpret such public poll as an offence to that law, resulting in serious problems.
This may be a reason for the scarcity of this kind of bets. Personally I wouldn't take any chances. 

What are you doing man? Answering or asking your own self or you might just forgot to use up your other account to reply/quote?  :D
Back to topic, I'm well aware on political bets but on my own opinion this is somehow harder than predicting on sports. Why? Any news or explosive issues will
boom up along the way even the said candidate is most likely to win would go down in an instant.

Political betting takes place offline through bookies, and I never used to it. During the last presidential election of USA it was found in directbet.eu, by that time the odds for trump was high. Finally users who placed on triumph were lucky to earn big. After directbet ending it services I never go search for such kind of bets.

This is a big event and I'm sure most sportsbook would add this on their betting lines.
In the previous presidential election, Trump was a dog to win and I think the odds was like 25 to 1 and that gives a better payout for those who
bet on him, it's a big upset on the favorite to win but that's gambling, and I think Political Betting is a good bet since it's transparent.

2020 going to be a huge huge betting opportunity. Look at the previous presidents in USA, papa bush served two terms if I am not wrong (I wasn't even born for most of it) and Clinton got the second one as well but cut short because of impeachment, bush with all his flaws and undeserved presidency that ruined almost everything in the whole world still served two years, Obama as the first black american president that revived the white Nazis again still served 2 years.

Now we have Donald, people say his presidency was the worst thing that happened to him and he will be impeached and his approval ratings dropped a lot and so forth and tell many many things that basically says he will not be the president in 2020 however the case that bush became president again and trump seemed like 1% chance at being the republican candidate let alone president but somehow managed to win shows that nothing is impossible in elections.

If I were to bet today I would still bet on trump, I would like to him to lose but I wouldn't bet against him.